janetjanet998 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 It may over lap several sub forum regions but models seem to be centered on the mid south at this time. It may be a good idea to use this as the main severe weather thread then? Euro stronger and more north with the low but GFS also shows a strong system some early discussions from Thursday dec 29th am... MEM RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGH EACH DAY THROUGH THE NEW YEAR HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH A FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WINDOW HAS BEEN CAPTURED IN THE EXTENDED CIPS ANALOG DATABASE WITH A PAST THREAT OF ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING CURVED HODOGRAPHS...6.5C TO 7C LAPSE RATES...AND CAPE AMOUNTS APPROACHING A 1000 J/KG. BOTH MODELS TRIGGER A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN THE OZARKS/ARLATEX...WITH A TRACK TO THE OHIO VALLEY. SO PLAN ON INTRODUCING A SEVERE RISK IN THE MORNING HWO. Jackson MS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB UP INTO THE MID 60S WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND 45-50KTS OF H850 FLOW. THE GEM HAS ALSO COME ON BOARD WITH SIMILAR SEVERE PARAMETERS. THERE ARE LIMITING FACTORS WITH REGARD TO HEIGHT FALLS, FORCING AND ALSO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL CONVECTION CUTTING OFF THE MOIST FLOW. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY INTRODUCTION INTO THE HWO FOR THE TIME BEING, BUT THIS POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. HUNTSVILLE AL IN ADDITION, WIND SHEAR WITH THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS INCREASED BULK SHEAR OF 30-50 KTS (0-3KM) AND LOW-LEVEL SRH VALUES BETWEEN 300-600 M2/S2. COUPLE THIS WIND SHEAR WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS (MUCAPE) BETWEEN 200-500 J/KG AND SHERB VALUES OF 1-1.2, A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE POSSIBLE. A VEERING SOUNDING PROFILE IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH COULD ALSO MEAN DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF ANY POTENTIAL QLCS. THOUGH CURRENT TIMING SHOWS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL TIME FRAMES, HAVE BEEN SEEING A SLOWER MODELS TREND WITH THIS SCENARIO OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. EVEN WITH THE POSSIBLE TIMING CHANGE, WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. TORNADOES ALSO LOOK POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR PROFILE, SPC DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 AM CST THU DEC 29 2016 VALID 011200Z - 061200Z ..DISCUSSION SOME SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST STATES -- PERHAPS ALSO ACROSS AREAS FARTHER NORTH -- FROM THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING NEW YEAR'S WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER A LARGE PART OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S., POLEWARD FLUXES OF MARITIME-TROPICAL AIR COULD EXTEND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST STATES -- AND PERHAPS INTO LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH. ASCENT ACCOMPANYING WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE FLOW MAY COMBINE WITH THIS MOISTURE AND RELATED BUOYANCY IN SUPPORT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SEVERE RISK. OVERALL, VARIATIONS AMONG DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THIS PATTERN -- WHICH COULD SUPPORT/DETER THE SEVERE RISK -- ARE TOO SUBSTANTIAL FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. FOR LATE DAY-4/SUNDAY INTO DAY-5/MONDAY, A MORE PROMINENT WAVE COULD INTERACT WITH MORE APPRECIABLE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY FROM PARTS OF EAST TEXAS TOWARD THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEY REGION (AND PERHAPS AREAS FARTHER NORTH). THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, THE RELATIVELY SMALL WAVELENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS DISTURBANCE, AND LIMITED PREDICTABILITY INHERENT TO SUCH A MESOSCALE-SIZED SYSTEM, LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/LOCATION/MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE RISK. FURTHERMORE, MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WITH REGARD TO THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF OVERLAP BETWEEN WAVE-RELATED ASCENT AND HIGHER BOUNDARY-LAYER THETA-E. THIS FACTOR CASTS DOUBT ON THE LOCATION/SPATIAL EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY, WIDESPREAD CONVECTION NEAR THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST COULD RESTRICT THE SPATIAL EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF INLAND BUOYANCY, POTENTIALLY REDUCING THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Monday is the most interesting forecast attm, partly because it is not as far out as the winter stuff. First of all, to get severe wx in the Mid South the Gulf Coast should be free of MCS slop. The wind fields would support severe in the Mid South if the Gulf Coast is unfettered. Forecast wind fields include plenty of speed shear and backed low level flow. Dews are shown rallying toward 65 deg F. Surface forecast will be important too, but it remains complex due to multiple waves ejecting. Euro 00Z showed ice in the Valley late next week which I find totally unacceptable; so, look for me in the severe thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Nice.The 2nd top analog.Jan storm of 1997,even a F-4 in Murfreesboro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 This may start over eastern Texas late Sunday then expand northeast into Tuesday rather wide warm sector for this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 MCS mentioned that may cut off moisture further north.... DAY 3 .SUMMARY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN INTO CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. ..SYNOPSIS A BLOCKING MID/UPPER HIGH, CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA, APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN PROMINENT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. MAY UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE DEFORMATION, WITH AT LEAST ONE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE FORECAST TO EMERGE FROM IT, AND ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. IN LOWER LATITUDES, SUBTROPICAL RIDGING MAY ELONGATE EAST TO WEST, WITH ITS CENTER OF HIGHEST HEIGHTS SHIFTING FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO. ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE, INTO LARGER-SCALE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF A REMNANT IMPULSE ACCELERATING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN LOWER LEVELS, WHILE A SIGNIFICANT COLD INTRUSION PROGRESSES TO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE GULF COAST REGION, FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THAT A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW COULD ACCOMPANY THE SOUTHERN MID-LEVEL IMPULSE, REDEVELOPING EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS. WHILE A MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY SUPPORT SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION INLAND OF NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z MONDAY, GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS AIR MASS MAY BE OVERTURNED, AND RETURN FLOW CUT-OFF, IN THE WAKE OF CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO SPREAD OUT OF TEXAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IT IS POSSIBLE, THOUGH, THAT AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. ..WESTERN INTO CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODEL OUTPUT CONCERNING JUST HOW FAST FORCING FOR ASCENT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WILL BECOME DISPLACED FROM THE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AND WEAKEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER, AN ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AIDED BY A CONTINUING INFLOW OF WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR (PROBABLY CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG), IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR, IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY COULD MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT STRENGTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY, BEFORE OVERTURNING THE BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AND CUTTING OF THE RICHER RETURN FLOW. UNTIL CONVECTION WEAKENS, IT MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS. CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY ALSO BE LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES, PARTICULARLY WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS WHICH MAY FORM NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DAY 3 MOST GUIDANCE DOES APPEAR TO INDICATE THAT WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY SUNDAY NIGHT, WHERE/WHEN CAPE MAY INCREASE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH STRENGTHENING OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW, INCLUDE SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KT, AND WEST SOUTHWESTERLY 700-500 MB FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 50-70 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT, PERHAPS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. STORMS COULD INITIATE BY MID TO LATE EVENING, AS FAR WEST AS THE PECOS VALLEY, IN RESPONSE TO FORCING WITH THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD INITIATE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, BUT CONVECTION EMERGING FROM WEST TEXAS WITH THE MID/UPPER FORCING MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME MOST PROMINENT SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPSCALE GROWING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS, WITH LARGE HAIL PROBABLY THE PRIMARY GENERAL SEVERE THREAT WITH INITIAL VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DAY 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 12z and 18z model data seems to be trending slightly more bullish but south and slower with this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 Dallas UR CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS INCREASED, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20/I-30 CORRIDORS. THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE RICHEST DEW POINTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES, WHERE SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG WILL EXIST WITH ELEVATED LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7-8 DEG C/KM. THROW IN SOUTHWESTERLY 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KNOTS AND WE'RE LOOKING AT A SET UP FOR SEVERE STORMS, MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF A QLCS MOVING READILY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND POSSIBLY A BOOK-END VORTEX TYPE OF TORNADO OR TWO, THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM D/FW SOUTH WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE FOR DEEPER AND STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THE CURRENT SLIGHT RISK AREA LOOKS SITUATED IN THE APPROPRIATE AREA AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ARE PUT IN A HIGHER CATEGORY IF MODEL TRACK AND TRENDS CONTINUE ON ALL THESE PARAMETERS. Jackson Ms EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE CONFINED TO ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED QLCS. WITH ENOUGH VERTICAL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY (ML/MUCAPES), ABOVE 1000 J/KG AREAWIDE (WHICH IS ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR) AND ENOUGH LOW-MID LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR, SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF THE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR, BASED ON THE EURO, A QLCS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS IS POSSIBLE. ANY PREFRONTAL STORMS IN THE MID- AFTERNOON COULD BE CONCERNING, WITH SUCH LOW LEVEL TURNING HODOGRAPHS, THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES. FOR NOW, ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 18z NAM 4K is particularly bullish..(assuming convection doesn't mess up moisture return) with STP of 5+ from mid TN to the gulf coast with pockets up to 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 KBMX TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD ALOFT, LEADING TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY IF MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS MOVE INTO THE AREA. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS LIKELY IF (AND THIS IS A BIG IF) GULF CONVECTION DOES NOT DISRUPT THE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE 500MB SHORTWAVE TO THE GULF COAST AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 300MB JET OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ARE BOTH FACTORS IN FAVOR OF COASTAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE INLAND BY 12Z MONDAY WHICH ARGUES AGAINST THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD COASTAL CONVECTION. IF THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS LARGELY UNCONTAMINATED, MODERATE AMOUNTS OF SHEAR AND CAPE WOULD PROBABLY YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES AHEAD OF A QLCS. IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT OUR LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL GET MUCH HIGHER UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING, BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO DISTINCT AND OPPOSITE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES. A LOW CONFIDENCE THREAT WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Models seem to be better agreement where that shortwave will be,Kinda like Central MS in our area right now,though no one post here from there..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1990 outbreak on Cips,seems like the shortwave the models agree on finally,top anaog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 SPC targeting late tonight Tornado potential increasing DAY 1 ..CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH, REACHING THE SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS BORDER BY 12Z MONDAY, AND EXTENDING EAST INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S ADVECTING NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN TO EAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL 00-03Z. MODELS SUGGEST ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BY EARLY EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHES THIS AREA. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND NORTH-SOUTH EXTENSION THROUGH LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AS THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS, REACHING GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH INITIAL STORMS, WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS BECOMING AN INCREASING THREAT AS STORMS REACH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE ACTIVITY MAY BECOME SURFACE BASED. POTENTIALLY CONCURRENT WITH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE TORNADO POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AS LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE INCREASES. IN ADDITION TO STORMS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EAST ALONG THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT, STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. ..SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION A MOIST WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER INLAND TODAY, WHILE CLOUDINESS SHOULD TEND TO INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING, RESULTING IN WEAK DESTABILIZATION. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AT 12Z TODAY, WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE AS A COUPLE OF WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSES TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THIS REGION. PRIOR TO LOW-LEVEL WINDS WEAKENING LATER TODAY, DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS OF 30-40 KT SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE IN SUPPORTING SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. LOW SEVERE WIND AND TORNADO PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION, MAINLY FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 DAY 2 rather Bullish AY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 AM CST SUN JAN 01 2017 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND MUCH OF WESTERN ALABAMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF STATES... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH AND LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... .LOWER PLAINS TO APPALACHIANS SUBSTANTIVE LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AND AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION, APPEARS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THIS MAY OCCUR ABOVE A RESIDUAL COOL/STABLE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CURRENTLY EVIDENT. RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING, AND SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION, PROBABLY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF STATES, WITH RETURN TO AREAS FARTHER NORTH IMPEDED, AT LEAST IN PART, BY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND DOWNSTREAM WARM ADVECTION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN INTO CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES, PERHAPS AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS THE MID SOUTH, WILL BECOME CHARACTERIZED BY MODESTLY STEEP LOWER/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE OF 500-1000+ J/KG. HIGHER CAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA, WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS LIKELY WILL REACH OR EXCEED THE MID 60S F. DUE TO LINGERING VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODEL OUTPUT, AMONG OTHER ISSUES, THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT REMAINS UNCLEAR. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY, THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS, INCLUDING SOUTHERLY 40-50 KT FLOW AROUND 850 MB, VEERING TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 50-70 KT AROUND 700 MB. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION, INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. FURTHERMORE, GUIDANCE NOW SEEMS SUGGESTIVE THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, INTO AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING, SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA. THIS WILL PARTIALLY BE DRIVEN BY LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, WHICH MAY SUPPORT OR MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS. SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS APPEAR LIKELY TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR TORNADOES AS WELL, PARTICULARLY IN DISCRETE CELLS PRECEDING ANY EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 This looks like it could be significant for the gulf coast with several tornadoes if the projected CAPE from the models comes into fruition. Just don't really see 2000 CAPE in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 The 06z 4km NAM is the third run in succession that a very active severe weather day is possible on Monday across Mississippi in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 New day 1 SUMMARY A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST REGION. MEANWHILE, A GREATER SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. ..TEXAS AND ADJACENT OK/ARKLATEX REGION TONIGHT A COMPACT UPPER JET/RELATED JET STREAK OVER BAJA MEXICO AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE STEADILY EASTWARD, REACHING SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING, AND PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP NORTHWARD IN TANDEM WITH A WARM FRONT, WITH LOWER/SOME MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF APPRECIATE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS, STORMS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE/SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT (MAINLY AFTER 06Z OR LOCAL MIDNIGHT). IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR, HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL STORMS. A TORNADO RISK MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AS MOIST CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. ..GULF COAST STATES FROM LA TO FL PANHANDLE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST TODAY ACROSS THE REGION AS MULTIPLE LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSES CROSS THE REGION. WHILE CLOUDS MAY REMAIN SEMI-PREVALENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION, SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION/VERTICAL SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 New Day 1 expands 5% risk slightly to SE. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Sun Jan 01 2017 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the Gulf Coast region. Meanwhile, a greater severe-weather threat is expected to develop across portions of Texas by late this evening and continuing into Monday morning. ...Synopsis... A deep mid-upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will drift slowly southward as part of a developing large-scale blocking pattern over the northeast Pacific and AK. Downstream, a progressive shortwave trough over AZ will accelerate eastward to central TX by the end of the period. Isolated lightning strikes will remain possible along the OR coast in the steep lapse rate environment with onshore flow, and clusters of thunderstorms will also persist today across southeast AZ and southern NM in association with the ejecting trough. The primary risk for thunderstorms, some severe, will be tonight across TX. ...Southeast NM this evening into TX overnight... Ascent and moistening immediately downstream from the shortwave trough over AZ will contribute to an increasingly favorable environment for thunderstorm development late this afternoon/evening across southern NM and far west TX. A cluster of storms will likely spread eastward through the evening, with the potential to produce isolated damaging gusts in an environment with weak buoyancy but sufficiently steep lapse rates. Low-level moisture will return northward in earnest by tonight into central/east TX, beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. The convective cluster will likely expand and intensify early Monday while reaching the richer moisture and potentially moderate buoyancy (MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg) across central TX, where the risk for damaging winds and large hail will increase. More isolated storm development may also occur ahead of the primary cluster, within the moist axis from the Middle/Upper TX coast into east TX. Vertical shear will be sufficient for supercells with the potential to produce a couple of tornadoes, especially with more discrete cells within or ahead of the primary cluster/MCS. ...North central and northeast Gulf coast through tonight... Convection is ongoing near the coast in a weak warm advection regime along the north edge of the surface warm sector from southern LA to the FL Panhandle. 12z regional soundings suggest that midlevel lapse rates will remain modest over this area given somewhat widespread convection. Vertical shear is also unlikely to increase much until very late in the period west of the MS River, given the late arrival of the shortwave trough in TX. Thus, will maintain only low-end wind/tornado probabilities. ..Thompson/Marsh.. 01/01/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 New day2 new big surprises .SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL GULF STATES INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH, ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES. ..EASTERN TX THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES A WARM FRONT (PORTIONS OF WHICH WILL BE CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED) WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST TX EWD THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES. IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING NORTHERN MS BY MONDAY EVENING, WHILE THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVERNIGHT. PRIMARY COMPLICATING FACTOR/UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THIS OUTLOOK IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING CONVECTION. GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE FROM EASTERN TX INTO A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD MOIST AXIS SOUTH OF WARM FRONT WHERE MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 1000 J/KG FARTHER EAST, WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY EXPECTED SOUTH OF WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF GULF COASTAL STATES. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN TX WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRUCTURES INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ANOTHER CORRIDOR OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED AS STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES, ESPECIALLY ALONG WARM FRONT AND WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE BANDS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. SEVERE THREAT BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT INTO ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE DUE TO LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION NORTH OF WARM FRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Could be interesting right on and south of the warm front. Looks like enough "other rain" to keep the immediate Tennessee Valley safe. Mississippi and Alabama stuff might not be that chasable even if it does materialize, typical Southern slop. Hopefully the Bowl games are more competitive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 the mentioned complex now developing over the NM/TX state line with t-storm warnings with a gust of 67 MPH reported models have a very messy situation tomorrow it will be a NOWCAST event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS LOUISIANA EAST TEXAS COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 610 AM UNTIL 200 PM CST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...MULTIPLE BANDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STEADILY PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS INCREASING AHEAD OF MULTIPLE FAST-MOVING CONVECTIVE LINES AND CLUSTERS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK, BUT A FEW TORNADOE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 AM CST MON JAN 02 2017 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA/AR/MS/AL AND FL PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX TO THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EAST TEXAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ..EAST TEXAS/GULF COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING WILL STEADILY SPREAD EASTWARD, REACHING THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY BY EARLY TUESDAY. A RELATED STRENGTHENING OF LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS EASTWARD-ADVANCING IMPULSE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS EAST TX AND LA/MS EARLY TODAY, AND ACROSS AL/GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EXIST ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE REGION TO THE SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND TOWARD THE TN RIVER VALLEY, ALTHOUGH ONGOING EARLY-DAY CONVECTION ACROSS MS/AL MAY EFFECTIVELY REGULATE THE CORRIDOR OF PEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY, A BAND OF FAST-MOVING STORMS WITH A HISTORY OF SEVERE-CALIBER WIND GUSTS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT ARE ONGOING (13Z) ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TEXAS, INCLUDING AN UPTICK IN A SOMEWHAT SEPARATE BAND OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASING PREVALENT INTO THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LINEAR CONVECTION RACES INTO LA AND SOUTHERN AR WITH A DAMAGING WIND RISK, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LINE-PRECEDING SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS/SUPERCELLS (CAPABLE OF A TORNADO RISK) ALSO INCREASING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS/DESTABILIZES DURING THE DAY. FARTHER EAST, TO THE SOUTH OF EARLY-DAY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/AL, ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRDS OF MS/AL. STRENGTHENING/BACKING OF MID-LEVEL WINDS WOULD SUGGEST A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR, BUT INCREASINGLY LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD YIELD A TORNADO RISK, POTENTIALLY SEMI-FOCUSED NEAR/SOUTH OF WHAT MAY BE AN OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING-RELATED EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 a couple of TOR warned cells now...messy but semi-discrete storms ahead 0f the main and also along the warm front more east DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST MON JAN 02 2017 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM LOUISIANA ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ..GULF COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY CONSIDERABLE STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS, IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CLUSTER IS A BOWING LINE SEGMENT THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING OCCASIONAL WIND DAMAGE REPORTS THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE CONTINUING DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN/NORTHERN ALABAMA, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAKER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND WITHIN A COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WHERE DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS MAXIMIZED. THIS ACTIVITY IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL LIKELY LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE AN EAST-WEST COASTAL WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA, WITH RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES/ AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY MAY LIFT FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BUT SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS INLAND WILL LIKELY BE IMPEDED BY ONGOING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THE EASTWARD-MOVING QLCS OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SEVERAL TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED ROTATIONAL COUPLETS THAT MAY DEVELOP AND NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE ADVANCING QLCS AND THE WARM FRONT. IN ADDITION, ANY PERSISTENT SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE MAY ALSO POSE A TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THE CLOCKWISE-TURNING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS EVIDENT IN RECENT VAD PROFILES AT LCH, LIX, AND MOB RADARS. OTHER SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHERE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR MAY COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER INSTABILITY. A FEW DAMAGING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0009 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1017 AM CST MON JAN 02 2017 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 021617Z - 021815Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THIS REGION BY 17Z. DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING A COASTAL WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE THROUGH THE MS BOOT HEEL INTO SOUTHEAST AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE IT INTERSECTS A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HAVE BEEN A LIMITING FACTOR SO FAR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER, THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IS DESTABILIZING, PRIMARILY DUE TO THETA-E ADVECTION, BUT SOME CLOUD BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. THE SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EAST NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT INTERCEPTS THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. ADDITIONAL MORE DISCRETE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS WITHIN THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. SOME STRENGTHENING OF BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENTLY LARGE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS FOR A THREAT OF LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND A FEW TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY AS DISCRETE STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED AHEAD OF THE LINE. BRIEF QLCS TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 VERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1104 AM CST MON JAN 2 2017 LAC103-105-021730- /O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170102T1730Z/ ST. TAMMANY LA-TANGIPAHOA LA- 1104 AM CST MON JAN 2 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CST FOR WEST CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY AND SOUTHEASTERN TANGIPAHOA PARISHES... AT 1104 AM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF MADISONVILLE, OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COVINGTON, MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Possible tornado at Mt. Olive Mississippi - (20:20z). This is a strong velocity difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 There has been a tornado reported near Mendenhall MS (20:08z). Actually the northwest edge of the image I posted above would have been the tornado warning associated with that one in Mendenhall MS. this is an ongoing storm with possible tornado near Orion, AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 A tornado has been reported near Mt. Olive, MS (20:21z)- tornado happened 2 hrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Couple of warning with confirmed tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 It seemed like there was pretty strong rotation near Union Springs AL and Benevolence GA. I'm not sure if any damage resulted. Note: Mobile general area has had 7-10" of rain since Dec. 31st, possibly even 11". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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