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December 29th Storm Obs

HIPPYVALLEY

By HIPPYVALLEY,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

back edge approaching very fast, and not much heavy snow up this way.....stuck in a dry slot.  Oh well....ORH Jax again, for MA anyway. 

You are gonna get crushed the next few hours...it still might even flip for a time in ORH...it's mixing not very far away.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

That's my thought as well. It's rasn here now but the lift hasn't really made it over the border yet

Steady. Steady.

No reason to panic yet. You're right, this was all pretty much as forecast. And you obviously can't predict some meso/microscale subsidence zone with any accuracy a day out.

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ma blizzard

ma blizzard

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I drove from Worcester into Charlton and it was all snow, it was snowing hard at the Charlton center, about 1 mile south of Route 20 it changed to rain, all rain at my house so missed out on the good stuff by about 5 miles.

I feel your pain lol .. all rain here too now in shrewsbury right off of rt20 

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Still working on the 1st inch here in Augusta.  This storm is starting like a young driver's first attempt at working a clutch - rate has switched between high-end moderate and almost nothing (the current state) about 5 times since 1st flakes a few minutes before noon.  Patience, grasshopper...

Three more rate-stutters since posting the above.  We should get plastered later, maybe while I'm climbing Mile Hill on the way home (about to leave for there), though I'd be happy if it waited until I got home.  GYX has my zone at 14-18".  Last 10"+ snowfall I actually saw while flakes were falling was Nov. 2014.

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted

Here's the 4pm update from BOX:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... At 18Z the coastal low was just offshore southeast of Atlantic City NJ and moving northeast. Up through early this morning, the main forecast models agreed that the low would move through, but disagreed on the track by almost 70 miles. The GFS brought the storm center up I-95 while the ECMWF moved it near Nantucket and Outer Cape Cod. The NAM was a little east of the GFS but favored Southeast MA and so was closer to the GFS than the ECMWF. With this final run before passage, the models finally narrowed their differences, with a projected track through either the Cape Cod Canal or across the Mid-Cape. Both models continue to show slow intensification until passage over Cape Cod, then a deeper intensification the following 6 hours...8 mb on the GFS and 18 mb on the ECMWF. This will tighten the pressure gradient around the low and bring increasing wind to Southern New England. The resulting cold advection will mix strong winds aloft down to the surface in gusts.

Rain/snow line at mid-afternoon extended from Springfield to south of Worcester and then Increasing SE winds which will move the rain/snow line toward the NW, reaching Worcester and Springfield.near Nashua and Lawrence. Radar shows the back edge of the main pcpn area was over the Hudson Valley at mid- afternoon and trending east at a pace to reach the Connecticut Valley around 22Z/5 pm...Central Hills/Worcester around 23Z/6 pm...Boston/Providence around 00Z/7 pm.

There is also an area of snow showers that is about 2 hours behind that back edge. So we expect rain/snow to taper off this evening, followed by scattered snow showers during the early night. Snow showers could dump an quick inch or two as they move through. Main concern after the rain/snow ends will be winds. As noted the intensifying coastal low will generate strong winds and gusts. Winds below 850 mb will be 40-45 knots with ocean areas having potential for 50 knots. This is a firm conditions for a wind advisory, with concern that exposed locations such as Cape Ann and Outer Cape Cod may reach 50 knots. Time frame for this remains 03Z to 09Z.

We have continued the Wind Advisory from Central Hills eastward, and upgraded to a High Wind Warning for Cape Cod and coastal Essex Co. mostly due to Cape Ann and Outer Cape Cod. Even with 50 mph gusts, there could be several trees, tree limbs, and wires downed, causing some power outages.

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