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January, the 2nd Meteorological winter month...


Typhoon Tip

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2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 

Well as a general E Coast storm yeah, it was pretty significant but I think for New England it was a fairly localized snowstorm really only impressing people SE of a Hartford to Portsmouth line. 

I knew as I was typing it who had the alarm sound over their bed post.

Most people understand that it was only memorable for a select portion of sne; i'm not sure how snowfall from the rest of the east coast is germane to that point.

Even many of those locales, it was a solid event, but nothing that will stand out in memory.

I mean, if a storm had blown up late, and just crushed ne MA, then I'd day the same thing.....localized area.

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48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I knew as I was typing it who had the alarm sound over their bed post.

Most people understand that it was only memorable for a select portion of sne; i'm not sure how snowfall from the rest of the east coast is germane to that point.

Even many of those locales, it was a solid event, but nothing that will stand out in memory.

I mean, if a storm had blown up late, and just crushed ne MA, then I'd day the same thing.....localized area.

Peeps with 20+ inches in 2 storms will remember this weekend for years. This is on par with Dec 08 for them. I will remember it. We can put to bed the silly wave length separation stuff once again.  

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Still not completely sold on the April complexion ... though i admit that it is entertaining reading the utter epitome of misery that is smoldering underneath the words choices and turns of phrases. It just snowed some 4 to 20" pan SNE and we are sitting at -1F for lows most places...  and the apocalypse to snow pack is all the rage - my god...   You guys kid about 'the sickness'   ...the proportions are probably correct... 

Anywho... So long as the PNA is actually successful in switching modes from negative to positive... (hell, I'd take neutral over where it has been over the last month!), and the NAO shows signs of also neutralizing... those two teleconnectors may offset the loss of the -EPO more so than present operational models are depicting. 

It's almost like elastic, the modeling of the atmosphere.  The metaphoric rubber band had been pulled taut by the -EPO crushing deep thickness S against the abutment of the subtropical heights lingering over from autumn...  Soon as the EPO relaxes...booinnng!   "Maybe" the models are simply overcompensating for the loss ...or rather, anticipated loss, of the -EPO blocking; countrasting but related to, they merely have yet to respond to the PNA rise. 

The reason it's of concern is that the PNA being positive (let's assume for a moment that succeeds...), that is a chillier stormier correlation over eastern America in its own rite. Right now... any +PNA does not look very represented on the dailies in the operational charts is all ... and that could rather abruptly correct if/when/as the PNA continues to clime out of its semi-permanent nadir.  

I know ... I know... "who care; when snow" ... as far as the dailies, not fully convinced that recent trends to abolish polar high N of the region in the middle and late middle range is real, either.  The GFS (fwiw) is slower to do so than the recent GGEM/Euro...enough so that it still imposes some overrunning threat.   

But yes agreed... some balmy days to end the work week probably is unavoidable, in the meantime. That in its self does not seem that unusual per my own experiences as a middle ager. The "magnitude" of the warmth...okay, we'll see - but have two day stints of warm up in winter is almost expected based upon my own experience. 

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11 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Peeps with 20+ inches in 2 storms will remember this weekend for years. This is on par with Dec 08 for them. I will remember it. We can put to bed the silly wave length separation stuff once again.  

Absolutely.

Like I said, it was memorable for a localized area; se MA.

Nothing wrong with that.

It is what it is.

But for truly memorable, larger scale, region wide events, wave separation is indeed an issue, as evidenced by the turn of events this past weekend.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

John, I'll bet we begin to see larger scale, prolific events in this pattern.

I'm on board with you on that.

:)  

well...let's set the table of expectations with the appropriate stem-ware here...  We don't mean, "expect" dividends here ... we simply cheers to the notion that things could be a lot worse, AND the pattern does bear potential. 

That's all - just to be clear.  Not that you aren't... but some readers tend to read into specifics and then highlight those in their interpretation; inevitably, reality falls short of those dreams of snowy sugar plumbs they had dancing in their heads... blame the author.  Buddaboom buddabing -

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12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Absolutely.

Like I said, it was memorable for a localized area; se MA.

Nothing wrong with that.

It is what it is.

But for truly memorable, larger scale, region wide events, wave separation is indeed an issue, as evidenced by the turn of events this past weekend.

yes for se ct ri se ma and the cape it was really fun for the winter wx enthusiasts there.....but for most of us stat padding or less farther nw

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

:)  

well...let's set the table of expectations with the appropriate stem-ware here...  We don't mean, "expect" dividends here ... we simply cheers to the notion that things could be a lot worse, AND the pattern does bear potential. 

That's all - just to be clear.  Not that you aren't... but some readers tend to read into specifics and then highlight those in there interpretation; inevitably, that fails... blame the author.  Buddaboom buddabing -

It's not the ideal pattern, but its simply not prohibitive of larger scale, region-wide impactors, unlike the former regime....which had pressing arctic domes butting against swelling heights at lower latitudes.

In this pattern, we ease the press of the arctic dome, and thus reduce said geopotential medium in that there is not as much gradient between the bubbling positive anomalies in the lower latitudes, and pressing arctic domes to the north. 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's not the ideal pattern, but its simply not prohibitive of larger scale, region-wide impactors, unlike the former regime....which had pressing arctic domes butting against swelling heights at lower latitudes.

In this pattern, we ease the press of the arctic dome, and thus reduce said geopotential medium in that there is not as much gradient between the bubbling positive anomalies in the lower latitudes, and pressing arctic domes to the north. 

As an addendum, that fact that we are quickly closing in on the nadir of climo should assuage concern over retreating arctic chill.

Take the increased storm potential and run-

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5 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

yes for se ct ri se ma and the cape it was really fun for the winter wx enthusiasts there.....but for most of us stat padding or less farther nw

Yea...I guess for some of se CT and RI, but certainly not the expanse of those area.

I mean, I guess its a matter of perception, but 1' over two events isn't memorable for me.

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wiped clean..everyone

C1uWfwqXUAAZ_7c.jpg

 

1 hour ago, Cold Miser said:

Crap. There are actually projected snow depth/ melt maps?  That's pretty sad sh*t.

 

That map isn’t supposed to represent total snowpack depth, but someone should let PF know to get ready just in case.  With the feet upon feet of snow containing 14 inches of LE at his snow plot going down to just 1 to 2 inches of snowpack by Friday, he’ll need to prepare for some massive flooding down in the village.

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36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Anywho... So long as the PNA is actually successful in switching modes from negative to positive... (hell, I'd take neutral over where it has been over the last month!), and the NAO shows signs of also neutralizing... those two teleconnectors may offset the loss of the -EPO more so than present operational models are depicting. 

It's almost like elastic, the modeling of the atmosphere.  The metaphoric rubber band had been pulled taut by the -EPO crushing deep thickness S against the abutment of the subtropical heights lingering over from autumn...  Soon as the EPO relaxes...booinnng!   "Maybe" the models are simply overcompensating for the loss ...or rather, anticipated loss, of the -EPO blocking; countrasting but related to, they merely have yet to respond to the PNA rise. 

The reason it's of concern is that the PNA being positive (let's assume for a moment that succeeds...), that is a chillier stormier correlation over eastern America in its own rite. Right now... any +PNA does not look very represented on the dailies in the operational charts is all ... and that could rather abruptly correct if/when/as the PNA continues to clime out of its semi-permanent nadir.

But isn't Canada torched?

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depends on what we mean by "torched" ?

not to be difficult .. but, we don't need -41 F west of James Bay to service/furnish events farther south with enough cold to produce winter weather types. I'd settle for a nice pervasive -5 to -8C 850 mb layout across the southern half.

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28 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

That map isn’t supposed to represent total snowpack depth, but someone should let PF know to get ready just in case.  With the feet upon feet of snow containing 14 inches of LE at his snow plot going down to just 1 to 2 inches of snowpack by Friday, he’ll need to prepare for some massive flooding down in the village.

Yeah, I think by snow depth they mean added snow depth in this case.  I've never interpreted those maps as factoring in snowmelt.

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28 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

 

That map isn’t supposed to represent total snowpack depth, but someone should let PF know to get ready just in case.  With the feet upon feet of snow containing 14 inches of LE at his snow plot going down to just 1 to 2 inches of snowpack by Friday, he’ll need to prepare for some massive flooding down in the village.

Well to be fair it's the GFS resolution and you have quite the range of submesoscale differences in pack/weather up in the mtns of VT. Still, it looks a little overzealous up here too. 

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4 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

Yeah, I think by snow depth they mean added snow depth in this case.  I've never interpreted those maps as factoring in snowmelt.

Nah. That's really the model progged snow depth. If you look at the analysis it has a low resolution of the current pack.

IMG_3965.GIF

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