Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2017 Author Share Posted January 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, 512high said: Tip, Very well said, however, I am one who does look at ext.forecast, and when I don't see what i want, I get pissed off(lol) , I'm trying to take day by day...on another note, you would be a great teacher/professor, you always give details in just about everything you post, I don't understand a lot of it, sometime i google to get the right meaning etc. good job thanks bro - ..Course, last night's indexes from CPC and CDC might piss you off - ha. I don't mean to waffle ... the point is that with the PNA rising there's room to wonder - that much of it doesn't change. The EPO does appear (in the GEFs) hell-bent on flipping phases to positive though. So, in order to not be hypocritical, should the PNA fail to pay dividends, the warm side of the interpretation gets legs. Frankly (while on the subject...) I have been toying with two schools on the rest of the winter's complexion. - I am DEFINITELY not confident that the last half of this winter will be very pleasing to winter enthusiasts. It's getting late in the year to see 588 dm closed contoured ridge nodes along the 35th parallel, and that is happening everywhere around the hemisphere in that ~ subtropical girdle, and won't stop. Not sure what is causing it... Perhaps "hang-over" warm ENSO from last year. Perhaps GW ... I don't know, but as the flow relaxes, I fear an odd recession of winter could happen exceedingly early because of that foundation no longer being "capped"/suppressed by seasonal height falls from the north, and suddenly we get weird subtropical ridge expansions. - the other question I have is whether that 'girdle' finally contracts ... The rising EPO will actually help slow the flow down over the mid latitudes of hour side of the hemisphere; less cold plumes sinking south to compress against said girdle. That's actually a start for removing the unrelenting speed shear that's plagued the flow... Some of this is counter-intuitive, because one would guess that more cold transport is good for snow/storms... yeeeah, that's true, but.. if the heights down south continue to act like a wall, these -EPO's actually end up creating monster wind velocities everywhere (hence, the speed shear and etc..). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 By long range i mean 11-15. Our most reliable guidance is quite mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 I love the April thickness pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I love the April thickness pattern. Been awhile since it's been this bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Leon Jerry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said: Leon Jerry? That term is thrown around waaaay too often. We get one storm that was entirely forgettable outside of a localized area, that will vaporize within a week and a mild extended range on tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Some overrunning with arctic air near by does not constitue leon....its akin to calling April 1997 anytime it snows in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Some overrunning with arctic air near by does not constitue leon....its akin to calling April 1997 anytime it snows in April. Ray do you agree with Tip for the second half of winter? Just wondering, I think I read your blog a few weeks ago that you felt January looked "good"? I maybe mistaken.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, 512high said: Ray do you agree with Tip for the second half of winter? Just wondering, I think I read your blog a few weeks ago that you felt January looked "good"? I maybe mistaken.. My outlook emphasized January and March, so we'll see how it goes....long range is variable. Thus far, everything has gone as planned with the December being run-of-the-mill, and January getting more active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: My outlook emphasized January and March, so we'll see how it goes....long range is variable. Thus far, everything has gone as planned with the December being run-of-the-mill, and January getting more active. Ok thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 I must say that I approve of the EPO/PNA flip.....I think I have had my fill of -EPO/-PNA. I'd rather take my chances with rain/snow lines with Boston Harbor now down to 38*, as opposed to sheared out, weak sauce, with the occasional cj. The mid levels have to be pristine here in order to avoid a screwgie in cj events....baseline/climo is mediocrity here in those events. I'll take my chances battling off the marine layer and H7 dry slot....cj I'm just worm-holed into reduced appeal. More often than not, there is some sort of dry layer, etc in the mid levels, and I get screwed at least excuse imaginable. I'll ride the line and have SWs met with less resistance in the form of sheer. If nothing else, I'd also like some man-snow for a change, too.....done with the sifting sugar cane and oes coke lines up scooter's nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I must say that I approve of the EPO/PNA flip.....I think I have had my fill of -EPO/-PNA. I'd rather take my chances with rain/snow lines with Boston Harbor now down to 38*, as opposed to sheared out, weak sauce, with the occasional cj. The mid levels have to be pristine here in order to avoid a screwgie in cj events....baseline/climo is mediocrity here in those events. I'll take my chances battling off the marine layer and H7 dry slot....cj I'm just worm-holed into reduced appeal. More often than not, there is some sort of dry layer, etc in the mid levels, and I get screwed at least excuse imaginable. I'll ride the line and have SWs met with less resistance in the form of sheer. If nothing else, I'd also like some man-snow for a change, too.....done with the sifting sugar cane and oes coke lines up scooter's nose. it's also easier to lose out to those with snowier climos than you too. When powderfreak and tamarack are killing it while I get 2" of slop turning to rain it's a little easier to take than PSM down to James getting 1-2ft while I rack up an inch of dust. That's what made 09-10 so damn frustrating. We've had crappier winters, but it's frustrating to rain while NYC and DC get pounded. With that said, I love seeing everyone get good snows. I had a good December so I'm satiated for now. This month is quickly going in the crapper for mby. The next 15+ days look putrid on all guidance, but maybe we can sneak something in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I must say that I approve of the EPO/PNA flip.....I think I have had my fill of -EPO/-PNA. I'd rather take my chances with rain/snow lines with Boston Harbor now down to 38*, as opposed to sheared out, weak sauce, with the occasional cj. The mid levels have to be pristine here in order to avoid a screwgie in cj events....baseline/climo is mediocrity here in those events. I'll take my chances battling off the marine layer and H7 dry slot....cj I'm just worm-holed into reduced appeal. More often than not, there is some sort of dry layer, etc in the mid levels, and I get screwed at least excuse imaginable. I'll ride the line and have SWs met with less resistance in the form of sheer. If nothing else, I'd also like some man-snow for a change, too.....done with the sifting sugar cane and oes coke lines up scooter's nose. This might be a basic 101 question to you, I'm just about 35-38 miles North of Boston, yesterdays event, whether it tilted east more etc, did my colder air push it and did that have to do with warmer atlantic water giving those totals, like you said and scott (scott said I was possibly in a screw zone, you stated i might see exhaust (i think), I maybe walked away with 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: it's also easier to lose out to those with snowier climos than you too. When powderfreak and tamarack are killing it while I get 2" of slop turning to rain it's a little easier to take than PSM down to James getting 1-2ft while I rack up an inch of dust. That's what made 09-10 so damn frustrating. We've had crappier winters, but it's frustrating to rain while NYC and DC get pounded. With that said, I love seeing everyone get good snows. I had a good December so I'm satiated for now. This month is quickly going in the crapper for mby. The next 15+ days look putrid on all guidance, but maybe we can sneak something in there. Next weekend you should crush it with snow while we heavy ice ahead of next furnace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, 512high said: This might be a basic 101 question to you, I'm just about 35-38 miles North of Boston, yesterdays event, whether it tilted east more etc, did my colder air push it and did that have to do with warmer atlantic water giving those totals, like you said and scott (scott said I was possibly in a screw zone, you stated i might see exhaust (i think), I maybe walked away with 4" The low never closed off in the mid-higher levels of the atmosphere (H7), so the system synoptically speaking lacked the capacity to advect as much moisture back as would have had it been better organized in those levels. Thus the vast majority of precip was driven by lower level dynamics, which were far and aways strongest near the ocean (coastal front and ocean enhancement); when this is the case, it robs even more moisture from getting back here. It was bad enough that we didn't have the low well established in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere, but then more was robbed by the low level convergence to our se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Next weekend you should crush it with snow while we heavy ice ahead of next furnace Count me out on that, too.......I hate that about this area. I get tag teamed by the ocean.....just close enough to smoke oes exhaust and avoid ice with surgical precision, and just far enough to miss out on any modicum of ocean assist (oes). No man's land between the coast and interior. Enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Count me out on that, too.......I hate that about this area. I get tag teamed by the ocean.....just close enough to smoke oes exhaust and avoid ice with surgical precision, and just far enough to miss out on any modicum of ocean assist (oes). No man's land between the coast and interior. Enjoy it. Not a warm fuzzy feeling the rest of this month from this seasoned vet. Hopefully things change. But we may be wearing shorts more than pants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Count me out on that, too.......I hate that about this area. I get tag teamed by the ocean.....just close enough to smoke oes exhaust and avoid ice with surgical precision, and just far enough to miss out on any modicum of ocean assist (oes). No man's land between the coast and interior. Enjoy it. wow I guess it is all relative but you have seen many good storms, the likes of which I could only dream about it was kinda lackluster back this way too yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2017 Author Share Posted January 8, 2017 I kind of agree with Ray's sentiments there. He hits at what I was also dancing around in that with a PNA rising/changing modes, we could get more of a standard model event delivery - rather than parlaying needle thread headaches in a Neptunia maelstrom... though...ha, I just saw the 12z Euro - not helping any winter arguments at all, huh... Jesus. Thing is, we always run risk during regime change of something emerging that is dreadful, and/or for lack of better words, 'jokes on us' That's how the devil works - sure the pattern changed! Another thing to remember. The PNA is an awesomely sized mass/domain space. Rising from -2 SD to +1 and/or neutral can actually fit inside that domain and still not represent over N/A... "IF' that's the destiny WHILE the EPO is positive? ...heh. Scott said, 'Love the April thikcness layout' dimensions would probably be succinct and then some. This is a candidate year for fat buds in March if I ever seen one... As soon as these mass fields allow it.. that subtropical oddity I've been trying to elucidate will expand. Hot summer?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Boston harbor is still 44-45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2017 Author Share Posted January 8, 2017 starting to wonder if this is just California's year ... and we poke through the scraps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2017 Author Share Posted January 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Boston harbor is still 44-45. right - in fact there's a modest positive anomalies throughout all coastal waters last I checked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 1 hour ago, dendrite said: it's also easier to lose out to those with snowier climos than you too. When powderfreak and tamarack are killing it while I get 2" of slop turning to rain it's a little easier to take than PSM down to James getting 1-2ft while I rack up an inch of dust. That's what made 09-10 so damn frustrating. We've had crappier winters, but it's frustrating to rain while NYC and DC get pounded. With that said, I love seeing everyone get good snows. I had a good December so I'm satiated for now. This month is quickly going in the crapper for mby. The next 15+ days look putrid on all guidance, but maybe we can sneak something in there. What he said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Yeah those SST's are at record levels. It seems like they stay near 40 rest of winter . Not good.. even for the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Localized area lol. Twas a good storm for millions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 We squeeze out another snowstorm next weekend in the midst of a crappie pattern. One of those years no retention down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: We squeeze out another snowstorm next weekend in the midst of a crappie pattern. One of those years now retention down here. That's not snow in SneSNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That's not snow in SneSNE Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 GEFS continues to look good for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: GEFS continues to look good for next weekend I'm flying into BOS Friday - looks like I fly in to mild weather before this SWFE type threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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