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January, the 2nd Meteorological winter month...


Typhoon Tip

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22 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Last winter sucked donkey sack, but that 10 day stretch in February was pretty awesome. Two solid storms...one was man snow and the other was arctic powder....and then the coldest temps recorded in nearly 6 decades to cap it off. It's too bad that was really the only memorable stretch until we got that crazy week in April with powdery snow falling on the seaport in Boston in midday, lol.

There are definitely signs this year though that we may have some fun in February. Still a lot of uncertainty though...the Nina may try and blunt some of that El Nino look on the models as it gets closer, as Scooter as alluded to.

As always, location dependent, or why I still have a solid snowpack, thanks to 12/29-30.  However, I got fringed on both those Feb storms, 7.7" for the period compared to Ginx' 20".  And while 2/14 was cold here, -17 isn't all that noteworthy at my frost pocket.  It was far more anomalous for SNE/NYC.  And we missed the early April storms, too, the final headslap of a thoroughly awful excuse for winter.  Sure hope you're on to something for next month, as I see the possibility of this one setting a new record for snowfall futility here - currently at 4.3", record is 5.1" in 2014, not much showing up for the next two weeks or so.

Edit:  Have to revise that last phrase - just looked at 12z GFS and it shows a marginal-temp event at day 15.   :lol:

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The American teleconnectors actually offer a bit of an Archembault type look from 00z computations.  Particularly in the CDC.  The PNA surges periodically there as one can easily see, but, the EPO falling pretty demonstratively at the end of D10 as it does, while the NAO is erstwhile negative... that's a pretty damn brightly colored flag for something bigger in eastern N/A.

Watch ..it'll be a Cleveland Superbomb redux just to chap butts...

Excluding the injustices of a chaotic medium for a moment..  that combination above is a significant signal nonetheless, and one that is reasonably well footed in persistence because the rising PNA has been well established.

Prior to the first of the month, too.  I'm sure the EPS shows something different -

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17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It's amazing how we lost almost the whole month of January except for that 1 snowfall 10 days ago..and we'll salvage winter from the 27th on as cold and snow returns. It's hard to have a good winter when you lose almost a full month

For some areas it will not be a good winter.

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You backing away from Feb?

Nobody has a crystal ball, but in some areas..not sure you can make up the deficit and call it a good winter. Statistically speaking. I'm ok with mine as I have half my annual snow already and it looks decent for Feb. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nobody has a crystal ball, but in some areas..not sure you can make up the deficit and call it a good winter. Statistically speaking. I'm ok with mine as I have half my annual snow already and it looks decent for Feb. 

I'm a little south of the half-way point.  If we can scrounge up an active February, and have some nickles/dimes in March I might be okay relative to average.

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nobody has a crystal ball, but in some areas..not sure you can make up the deficit and call it a good winter. Statistically speaking. I'm ok with mine as I have half my annual snow already and it looks decent for Feb. 

I need 33-35" to get to normal. I'm at 25.1"

Do  you think that is possible based on what you see with upcoming pattern?

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I need 33-35" to get to normal. I'm at 25.1"

Do  you think that is possible based on what you see with upcoming pattern?

thats nothing with 6 weeks at minimum left. 

all these years had less than 16 inches going in

1-23 to 4/15

1949-04-15 40.8  
1969-04-15 46.6
2007-04-15 44.8
2015-04-15 105.8
1956-04-15 69.3
1972-04-15 65.4

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

thats nothing with 6 weeks at minimum left. 

all these years had less than 16 inches going in

1-23 to 4/15

1949-04-15 40.8  
1969-04-15 46.6
2007-04-15 44.8
2015-04-15 105.8
1956-04-15 69.3
1972-04-15 65.4

 

 

 

 

'12-'13 was a pretty slow starter, too. I recall much anguish and bandying about futility records until about three days prior to the blizzard.

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9 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I think Boston only had about 3 that month, and maybe 7 in January. It was generally mild until mid-Jan. Maybe you guys snuck one in down there that scraped us?

12/29/12 screwed BOS and nailed the interior...pretty much anyone just a few miles west of BOS. We got a bit over 9" in ORH...we also had a bit over 6" on 12/26-27...that was a bit more for the deep interior. But yeah, BOS had very little until the blizzard.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

12/29/12 screwed BOS and nailed the interior...pretty much anyone just a few miles west of BOS. We got a bit over 9" in ORH...we also had a bit over 6" on 12/26-27...that was a bit more for the deep interior. But yeah, BOS had very little until the blizzard.

Ah, thanks for the clarification. My brain has a way of forgetting "meh" events.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

BOS cleaned up in Feb and Mar of 2013. That weenie 3/18-3/19 event was the icing on the comeback cake. 

Yeah I drove into work that day from ORH...downtown crossing is where I was at that point and I couldn't believe that they had a good 2"+ more than I did at home. It looked like they had gotten like 9"+ while I had around 7". Great little SWFE for late season.

That was the last month we had a great NAO block...can't buy one since then. But that doesn't mean we can't clean up anyway. Maybe we can get a 1993 pattern (or 2015)...both had excellent Feb/Mar totals without much -NAO.

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5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It's amazing how we lost almost the whole month of January except for that 1 snowfall 10 days ago..and we'll salvage winter from the 27th on as cold and snow returns. It's hard to have a good winter when you lose almost a full month

But it can happen, and usually January is the odd month.  Most recent in my experience was 2013-14, with a January that was significantly colder AND wetter than average, but had the least snowfall of my 19 Januarys here.  That's an improbable trifecta.  That winter had 5 storms of 10"+ and great snowpack, and for me was considerably better than 14-15.  Jan 2001 was no great shakes, but Dec was good and Feb-Mar were outstanding.  Going way way back, 1966-67 was my 2nd best (after 60-61) winter of 20 in NNJ, and that January was puke-worthy, almost no snow and warm enough to muck up my then-favorite winter hobby, icefishing.  This year?  Who knows?

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