weathafella Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 If February is a rockin' don't come knockin' if you know what I mean. Record snows for many locations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 24 minutes ago, weathafella said: If February is a rockin' don't come knockin' if you know what I mean. Record shows for many locations? Keep the faith, Jer. How's the hand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 43 minutes ago, Hoth said: Keep the faith, Jer. How's the hand? Thanks for asking-getting better every day. Was able to use my left hand at work which was a great sign to me. Will be be interesting to see if we can pick up some extra credit this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: If February is a rockin' don't come knockin' if you know what I mean. Record shows for many locations? If your dominant hand is broken can a love the other women? Weeklies are old school Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Starting to lose the death vortex over AK and a little more PNA ridging. The AK vortex is taking shape earlier than I thought....I expected that in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The AK vortex is taking shape earlier than I thought....I expected that in Feb. What does this mean for our weather? A shot of cold our way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 45 minutes ago, ajisai said: What does this mean for our weather? A shot of cold our way? Winter's death knell or at least hiatus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Jan 10th and we're talking Feb. yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, ajisai said: What does this mean for our weather? A shot of cold our way? Well it depends on where it is. If the vortex covers most of AK, mild wx. If it is over the aleutians, lots of fun potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Well it depends on where it is. If the vortex covers most of AK, mild wx. If it is over the aleutians, lots of fun potentially. It will be ugly for awhile/. Hopefully later this month it retros as the weeklies and the end of the ensembles hint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It will be ugly for awhile/. Hopefully later this month it retros as the weeklies and the end of the ensembles hint. It's at the end of the ensembles so I would think we will be waiting another week given the propensity for guidance to rush changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: It's at the end of the ensembles so I would think we will be waiting another week given the propensity for guidance to rush changes. so there is still hope for a late January snows? not a full torch month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It will be ugly for awhile/. Hopefully later this month it retros as the weeklies and the end of the ensembles hint. Lots of grass, winter moths , and car washing before that over next 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1/3 of the way thru Jan and I'm at >60% of my seasonal snow average. Guess that's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 25 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 1/3 of the way thru Jan and I'm at >60% of my seasonal snow average. Guess that's good. I'd say so. It hasn't been that bad of a winter so far for SNE-(even better for you out east this last week). This is typical winter weather in SNE. We do get mild ups now and again around here during the winter season, and that's whats been happening..but the cold comes back each time. Tomorrow and Thursday mild, Friday a lil cooler and cold again now for the weekend. January thaws are part of the winter in SNE. Now if winter is over for the season with this Jan thaw, then that would be abnormal for sure. But that doesn't seem to be the idea as of now. I'm at 40% of my seasonal snow average as of January 10th...that's not too shabby either. Not worried at all going forward. And if we pick up a couple inches over the weekend, we keep adding to the total amidst a milder period. Much better than last winter season already...and it's just Jan 10th. Let it get mild so we can wash up the roads and vehicles some like DIT said..can't stand that white corrosive salt solution on the truck for long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 Still don't see any reason to grouse or celebrate, either way... I know, I know ... asking folks around this social media to be patient and allow things to marinade is a tall order, but there are a couple of glaring concerns for operational Meteorologists ... or hobbyists, alike. For one, losing the antecedent -EPO in lieu of a PNA mode change is inherently a "pattern change." It may not 'look' very obvious but it is. And, such as is the case in pattern changes, models will tend to increase error. That's just FAST (forecast analytics and statistical techniques - a lovable course we took during blood-sweat-and-tears-years). Anyway, in the interim...what depictions are being agreed upon (for the most part) is a "split" flow construct in the west. Of particular interest for me is the handling of the wave patterning in the northern stream after the the flow splits. Accurate timing and magnitude of those features N-stream features is critical for gaining any confidence in the amount of polar high pressure will generate and play a crucial role in determining critical thickness layout from the GL to NE region. ...Related to all that... I don't believe the 00z GGEM and Euro are very believable in their respective handling through the middle and latter middle range...They seem to episodically ripple packets of confluence down stream through southern Canada without much generation of +PP. There are more layers than just referring to the 500 mb evolution in that, but by and large...you see stream convergence near the GL ... you see more high pressure. Wouldn't shock me if more high pressure returns ...as well, pancaking any disturbance ..shearing them east more if they try to curl up through the Lakes. So, seek and you shall find... surely enough, the GFS (that people conditionally think is a bad model based upon how many inches of snow it's forecasting...) does offer at least semblance, if not outright, a clearer depiction of polar high wedging in from the N up underneath that same sort of episodic rippling/confluence periods over S-SE Canada. It may not be right with specific details...but overall does offer conceptually supported scenarios where the flow splits then regathers in that vicinity. What muddies this up all the further is knowing that the split flow structure (timing and magnitude) is in question in the first place due to inherent uncertainties associated to the aforementioned PNA mode change. Granted, there may not be a glaring event on the charts at this time ... but let things marinade. It may not break in favor of winter enthusiasm. But, I sense a pretty goodly sized amount of uncertainty, too, which could prove otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lots of grass, winter moths , and car washing before that over next 2 weeks You don't get the moths this late. Car needs washing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 22 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: NOHRSC does it for Cocorahs stations... That is just way too cool Ginxy; I had no idea those analyses were run even down to the level of CoCoRaHS stations. It’s awesome to know that one’s diligent measurements are getting so much use, or at least hold so much potential for use. You know how you’re always telling people to join CoCoRaHS, well there you go peeps, join CoCoRaHS and you can get your data archived, analyzed, and even used in modeling for your site. I didn’t try it, but are there methods to run the analyses for any latitude/longitude for people that don’t have a station? I’m just guessing the system would have to interpolate it using actual station data, so the result would only be as good as the station density/proximity and not really get at the microclimate of the specific spot. Or maybe they incorporate satellite data? Here’s the page I went to for anyone that is interested – you can just enter your CoCoRaHS station number and you’ll get the plots: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/graph.html I ran the analysis on my station starting December 1, and put the SWE, Snow Depth, and Snow Melt plot below. You can see the three snow melt spikes we’ve had in red, which is very informative. You can also see how the analyses incorporate that actual snowpack cores that I’ve done so far this season (two blue circles), as well as the daily snow depth measurements (light blue squares). Man, that actually makes me want to do more frequent snowpack cores to help bolster the data, but it just hasn’t seemed all that necessary with the fairly meager snowpack we’ve had this season. The modeling through the 13th does suggest an increase in SWE & Snow Depth with a concomitant decrease in snow density at our site, so we’ll see how that goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Tip, in your last line you say you sense a good amount of "uncertainty" going forward. I agree with that statement...and posted yesterday about a local CT on air MET who said exactly that same thing yesterday morning. And it makes sense. Very good post. We may not like the way the Uncertainty breaks(or we may??), but what the models are showing now in the mid and latter ranges are not accurate in my opinion either... interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 1/3 of the way thru Jan and I'm at >60% of my seasonal snow average. Guess that's good. same deal here-we've done well in the few cold periods we've had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, J.Spin said: That is just way too cool Ginxy; I had no idea those analyses were run even down to the level of CoCoRaHS stations. It’s awesome to know that one’s diligent measurements are getting so much use, or at least hold so much potential for use. You know how you’re always telling people to join CoCoRaHS, well there you go peeps, join CoCoRaHS and you can get your data archived, analyzed, and even used in modeling for your site. I didn’t try it, but are there methods to run the analyses for any latitude/longitude for people that don’t have a station? I’m just guessing the system would have to interpolate it using actual station data, so the result would only be as good as the station density/proximity and not really get at the microclimate of the specific spot. Or maybe they incorporate satellite data? Here’s the page I went to for anyone that is interested – you can just enter your CoCoRaHS station number and you’ll get the plots: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/graph.html I ran the analysis on my station starting December 1, and put the SWE, Snow Depth, and Snow Melt plot below. You can see the three snow melt spikes we’ve had in red, which is very informative. You can also see how the analyses incorporate that actual snowpack cores that I’ve done so far this season (two blue circles), as well as the daily snow depth measurements (light blue squares). Man, that actually makes me want to do more frequent snowpack cores to help bolster the data, but it just hasn’t seemed all that necessary with the fairly meager snowpack we’ve had this season. The modeling through the 13th does suggest an increase in SWE & Snow Depth with a concomitant decrease in snow density at our site, so we’ll see how that goes. Yes JSPIN it is pretty fantastic. I did cores every Monday in 15, highest core I had was 8.92 which is outrageous for my bikini locale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 5 hours ago, sbos_wx said: Jan 10th and we're talking Feb. yikes some are... it's a function of not having something more obvious to track in the guidance. that... and mixed with those that pick up more on sentiment and since the 'mood' around here has swung pretty far into the darker ends of the spectrum ... best solution is to bust January and start looking ahead. again, i think it's premature... if the PNA were not rising from -2 SD to +1 ( huge implication because that particular mass/domain space is so large and encompasses so much of the surface of the hemisphere) i'd be less opposed to hand thowing.. But, until this PNA push proves less useful, i'm not willing to sign away the rest of January - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 5 hours ago, sbos_wx said: Jan 10th and we're talking Feb. yikes The Single Chair Weather Blog for Mad River Glen in VT is close to punting January. Today marks day 701 since the last warning event at BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: some are... it's a function of not having something more obvious to track in the guidance. that... and mixed with those that pick up more on sentiment and since the 'mood' around here has swung pretty far into the darker ends of the spectrum ... best solution is to bust January and start looking ahead. again, i think it's premature... if the PNA were not rising from -2 SD to +1 ( huge implication because that particular mass/domain space is so large and encompasses so much of the surface of the hemisphere) i'd be less opposed to hand thowing.. But, until this PNA push proves less useful, i'm not willing to sign away the rest of January - Yeah there's actually hints we may have some marginal cold airmasses in our corner of the country even amidst a hideous CONUS look for winter enthusiasts east of the Rocky Mountain spine....and if we do get a temp PNA spike, then we certainly can't rule out an event...particularly the interior, elevations, etc. The pattern does become a little bit blocky over eastern Canada too, so even with a somewhat putrid airmass, it can still produce a winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah there's actually hints we may have some marginal cold airmasses in our corner of the country even amidst a hideous CONUS look for winter enthusiasts east of the Rocky Mountain spine....and if we do get a temp PNA spike, then we certainly can't rule out an event...particularly the interior, elevations, etc. The pattern does become a little bit blocky over eastern Canada, so even with a somewhat putrid airmass, it can still produce an event. that's another issue, sure .. the NAO (can't forget that beast, either) is trying ...inching, clawing scraping to get negative ... That domain ( you know this obviously) is among the more stochastic ... so long as it's doing that, heh, that could break more negative and not be in the guidance right now. it's more uncertain to me ... and I think folks might be a little spoiled and almost expect a eye candy in the models maybe? I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 59 minutes ago, eyewall said: The Single Chair Weather Blog for Mad River Glen in VT is close to punting January. Today marks day 701 since the last warning event at BTV. that's insane-close to 2 years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 3 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 1/3 of the way thru Jan and I'm at >60% of my seasonal snow average. Guess that's good. Ahh the land where one storm changes the entire winter. Another storm and near normal is almost a lock for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Yeah it may be one of those deals with -0.5C at 850 over the interior isothermal deals in the later 11-15 day. IOW,....one of the things I thought of, was blue bomb potential somewhere...but who knows this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah it may be one of those deals with -0.5C at 850 over the interior isothermal deals in the later 11-15 day. IOW,....one of the things I thought of, was blue bomb potential somewhere...but who knows this far out. We just need to get them to start tracking more under us...these trough axis just keep ripping west. But yeah I'm of the it can snow in an above normal pattern and as long as we can sneak marginal cold in, it can happen. Just can't keep having these primaries over Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: We just need to get them to start tracking more under us...these trough axis just keep ripping west. But yeah I'm of the it can snow in an above normal pattern and as long as we can sneak marginal cold in, it can happen. Just can't keep having these primaries over Toronto. Srn stream starts to fire up. Hopefully a good sign going into Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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