Allsnow Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 55 minutes ago, psv88 said: Thanks Don. Good post. Agreed that the AO/PNA combo is not what we want to see. Your perspective is much appreciated. Thanks Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 15 minutes ago, PB GFI said: They do not . Dec 25 thru Jan 10 was called a torch back in mid Dec. You are conflating temps with lack of snow. When its suppose to get cold Jan 5 thru 15 will be cold . I never mentioned snow and they most certainly did during our December cold shot. The Euro overdoing the severity of the cold at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 25 minutes ago, Rjay said: I never mentioned snow and they most certainly did during our December cold shot. The Euro overdoing the severity of the cold at the time. Youre wrong, The Euro was - 5 for 10 days mid Dec at its max. I posted on them everyday. Dec 8 thru the 21 st ended - 3 and its only issue was it missed a cutter in the middle which plus 8 . Thats almost 1 degree because of 1 cutter Conversely the Euro forecasted 60 4 x in Dec at KNYC, it verified once . Twice at other stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 16 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Youre wrong, The Euro was - 5 for 10 days mid Dec at its max. I posted on them everyday. Dec 8 thru the 21 st ended - 3 and its only issue was it missed a cutter in the middle which plus 8 . Thats almost 1 degree because of 1 cutter Conversely the Euro forecasted 60 4 x in Dec at KNYC, it verified once . Twice at other stations. The Euro was forecasting lows in the single digits to around 10 in NYC during the cold period. It overdid the severity of the cold. Otherwise I have no issues with what you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Yeah, the Euro was definitely too cold during that December cool down for both NYC and my area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 18 minutes ago, Rjay said: The Euro was forecasting lows in the single digits to around 10 in NYC during the cold period. It overdid the severity of the cold. Otherwise I have no issues with what you said. I think many saw those - 20 anomalies in the UMW and didnt realize the edges here were much warmer . But yes those constant busts of single digit lows over the last few years is a def model weakness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: But a -EPO is what we want to see and that's what we have now. Overall, the EPO leads to an increased frequency of snowfall events, but only makes a modest contribution in terms of amounts. It is not sufficient to overcome an AO+/PNA- pattern, though an EPO- has seen increased snowfalls (snowstorm totals and daily figures) of 4" or more relative to an EPO+ during an AO+/PNA- pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Freezing rain advisory expanded by Mt holly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Freezing rain advisory expanded by Mt holly Temps down to 27 already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 And the city is still over 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Temps down to 27 already 27 here as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Again, big changes from the 18z to the 00z GFS. The shortwave out west is much more robust. 00z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Last 3 runs of the GFS for "wave 1" and "wave 2". Look out west for wave 2. The changes are ridiculous each run and this is why you don't get hung up on OP runs 5+ days out of any possible event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 GFS at 132 is looking good. Closed 500mb low over NE running into cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Has that PD I look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GFS at 132 is looking good. Closed 500mb low over NE running into cold air. Really needs to dig. The relaxation of the -pna really helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 GFS gonna be a bomb, that closed low, not till next Sunday though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 GFS crushes central jersey, Long Island , NYC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Ohhhhhhh baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Big boy inbound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Love seeing the strong HP north of the area. A closed 500mb low south of NJ helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just another solution to add to the GFS, wish it wasn't 7 days out going with last winters theme of coastal crusher, this outcome would not surprise me hahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Bring that baby about 30 miles north so we can all enjoy;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Just another solution to add to the GFS, wish it wasn't 7 days out going with last winters theme of coastal crusher, this outcome would not surprise me hahah This would catch us up to you guys up there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Eye candy for the city/LI/jersey crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Eye candy for the city/LI/jersey crew Too bad its 6 days out...bullseye rule. But that run definitely moved it a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 still another 3-4" for LI on the panel after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 D6-7 bullseye is a very ideal position... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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