January 2017 Discussion & Observations

[PB GFI]

32 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

i think we are in for more days like this. After next week we are going to get mild again 

 

No we don't.

 

Go look at the  6Z GEFS and EPS 2 M anomalies day 10 thru 16 and see for yourself.

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

My period is 15 days long and 5 days ago Some posted it was 5 days and done .

 

Its already 10 days in the guidance .

Check out the day 10 Euro OP , you can see the ridge pops for a day , and HP builds back in 

 

None of the guidance has an uninterrupted run of cold from January 5-20th. Some were calling for a cold December

but it only turned out to be a transient cold shot between December 10-20th. Today is a perfect example of mild

days overperforming. And the cold in mid-December underperformed with the Euro showing lows in the single

digits that never verified. The cold departures were quickly erased when we lost the -EPO. So we are going

to need a big pattern change after January 20th for this month to turn out to be cold. Let's wait and see 

if the pattern can become more conducive for extended and not transient cold by then.

[PB GFI]

On 12/29/2016 at 8:03 AM, PB GFI said:

 

Ok , so now its 5 thru 12th ?  jk.

On balance 5th thru 20th is the call , is there a 1 or 2 day spike because of a cutter , sure 

We cut in great patterns , but it would just drill back in .

I dont just look at models , I look to see why they are wrong .

Yesterdays GFS ensembles are already pulling back .

 

 

 

Never 15 days of uninterrupted of cold .

 

We split the period in half was the forecast.

 

You guys keep seeing a ridge at 18k feet and it looks warm , 

but the 2 M are colder .

 

[nesussxwx]

43F currently. Perfect day to get out and enjoy New Years. 

Saw some kids running outside with a t-shirt and shorts on like it was mid-summer, lol.

[PB GFI]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

None of the guidance has an uninterrupted run of cold from January 5-20th. Some were calling for a cold December

but it only turned out to be a transient cold shot between December 10-20th. Today is a perfect example of mild

days overperforming. And the cold in mid-December underperformed with the Euro showing lows in the single

digits that never verified. The cold departures were quickly erased when we lost the -EPO. So we are going

to need a big pattern change after January 20th for this month to turn out to be cold. Let's wait and see 

if the pattern can become more conducive for extended and not transient cold by then.

 

 

My call in Dec was for 10 days of - 3 , I got 13 days .

Jan 1 thru 5 was always AN  5 thru 20 should not be .

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

 

My call in Dec was for 10 days of - 3 , I got 13 days .

Jan 1 thru 5 was always AN  5 thru 20 will not be .

The cold shot coming in on the 5th lasts about 5-7 days before the pattern relaxes again. Those 5-7 days look to be the peak of the cold through the next 15 days. I am not sure yet happens later in the month.

 

[NEG NAO]

Most Consistent Model Last Few Days

[PB GFI]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The cold shot coming in on the 5th lasts about 5-7 days before the pattern relaxes again. Those 5-7 days look to be the peak of the cold through the next 15 days. I am not sure yet happens later in the month.

 

 

I saw the cutter 4 days ago .

Snowgoose and I both addressed it . I posted about it on the 29th.

 

It's not 15 straight days of cold , the 12z GEFS days 12 13 lose the ridge .

The Euro keeps the theme of the ridge because it likes to dump the neg SW once out of the UMW 

Its come and go .The period was opined as a split .

 

[Allsnow]

30 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

No we don't.

 

Go look at the  6Z GEFS and EPS 2 M anomalies day 10 thru 16 and see for yourself.

Yes we do

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

I saw the cutter 4 days ago .

Snowgoose and I both addressed it .

 

It's not 15 straight days of cold , the 12z GEFS days 12 13 lose the ridge .

The Euro keeps the theme of the ridge because it likes to dump the neg SW once out of the UMW 

Its come and go .The period was opined as a split .

 

We haven't had an extended period of cold since JFM 2015. All the cold shots since then have been transient.

It will be interesting to see if we can break out of that pattern January 20-31 or in February.

 

 

[PB GFI]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yes we do

 

Now post day 11 12 13 .

I will wait .

[PB GFI]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We haven't had an extended period of cold since JFM 2015. All the cold shots since then have been transient.

It will be interesting to see if we can break out of that pattern January 20-31 or in February.

 

 

 

There are no 20 or 30 day stretches this winter .

 

10 to 15 and get what you can .

My point was its not 5 .

[PB GFI]

Now some of you are just misusing 850 anomalies .

 

If N mid Jan 850s are  -10 and the anomalies are plus 4 , whats your 850 ? 

And what would happen to your 2 M with LP to your south .

 

You guys see red and have no idea anomies in the coldest part of winter at 5k feet does not  always equal AN 2 M ( especially if there is snow on the ground ) .

 

In this case the GEFS dives the trough back day 11 thru 13 which it should with a neg epo/wpo.

 

 

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Now some of you just completely embarrass yourself by posting 850 anomalies .

 

If N mid Jan 850s are  -10 and the anomalies are plus 4 , whats your 850 ? 

And what would happen to your 2 M with LP to your south .

 

You guys see red and have no idea anomies in the coldest part of winter at 5k feet does not  always equal AN 2 M ( especially if there is snow on the ground ) .

 

In this case the GEFS dives the trough back day 11 thru 13 which it should with a neg epo/wpo.

 

 

The mean trough is over the plains. That would be a cutter look for us on the EPS 

[PB GFI]

On 1/1/2017 at 4:21 PM, Allsnow said:

The mean trough is over the plains. That would be a cutter look for us on the EPS 

 

I see the EPS day 11 thru 15  , I dont buy it " yet " .

There should be a cutter that splits the pattern.

But if you look at day 11 12 13  on the GEFS the trough is firing east .

 

After the 20 th , I will have no issues with backing off , but these patterns are usually 10 to 15 day intervals.

 

[bluewave]

33 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

There are no 20 or 30 day stretches this winter .

 

10 to 15 and get what you can .

My point was its not 5 .

What difference does 5 or 10 really make in the larger scheme of things. You need to run the cold pattern for longer stretches than that if you want to see 

a colder than normal month. We'll see if we can get any changes to this post JFM 2015 trend later in January or in February.

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

What difference does 5 or 10 really make in the larger scheme of things. You need to run the cold pattern for longer stretches than that if you want to see 

a colder than normal month. We'll see if we can get any changes to this post JFM 2015 trend later in January or in February.

We will need Pna help as you have posted above 

[PB GFI]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

What difference does 5 or 10 really make in the larger scheme of things. You need to run the cold pattern for longer stretches than that if you want to see 

a colder than normal month. We'll see if we can get any changes to this post JFM 2015 trend later in January or in February.

 

In a warm background state thats the best we got 

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, PB GFI said:

 

Never 15 days of uninterrupted of cold .

 

We split the period in half was the forecast.

 

You guys keep seeing a ridge at 18k feet and it looks warm , 

but the 2 M are colder .

 

But the 2m temps keep verifying milder

[dmillz25]

The GFS and it's run to run changes lol

[Eduardo]

Excellent discussion going in here!

Paul, I know where you stand on temps, but do you think we snow to the coast during this upcoming period?  If so, given the numbers that Don posted, you must agree that getting anything more than a light event is a pretty tall order, no?

Chris, I think you make a great point that any sizeable winter events here will be PNA-contingent, given the lack of Atlantic cooperation so far.  Hopefully the fading La Nada opens the door for that to happen as we head through this month and into the next.

So far, the consensus seems to be more or less a December repeat with January climo?  The difference is that, unless the guidance shifts towards another PV visit, this transient cold shot won't be as intense.  Amazing how it seems impossible to have any clue beyond that though.  Weird winter....

[NEG NAO]

18Z GFS - Flip Flopping Run to Run Continues.......JMA may be on to something has been the most consistent 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Most Consistent Model Last Few Days

Given the forecast AO+/PNA- pattern, even a 3"-4" snowfall might be tough to come by. The GGEM forecast is also 144 hours out, so a lot of details can change.

[Stormlover74]

24 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

18Z GFS - Flip Flopping Run to Run Continues.......JMA may be on to something has been the most consistent 

It has a storm on the 11th but a cutter

[donsutherland1]

31 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Excellent discussion going in here!

Paul, I know where you stand on temps, but do you think we snow to the coast during this upcoming period?  If so, given the numbers that Don posted, you must agree that getting anything more than a light event is a pretty tall order, no?

Chris, I think you make a great point that any sizeable winter events here will be PNA-contingent, given the lack of Atlantic cooperation so far.  Hopefully the fading La Nada opens the door for that to happen as we head through this month and into the next.

So far, the consensus seems to be more or less a December repeat with January climo?  The difference is that, unless the guidance shifts towards another PV visit, this transient cold shot won't be as intense.  Amazing how it seems impossible to have any clue beyond that though.  Weird winter....

The AO+/PNA- pattern is the worst one for the New York City area for January. The biggest January snowfall with such a pattern (1950-2016) is just 5.8". If the latest guidance is right, one will probably need to wait until after the 10th before the AO goes negative.

Of course, even a light snowfall is better than none, so I'll take whatever falls.

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The AO+/PNA- pattern is the worst one for the New York City area for January. The biggest January snowfall with such a pattern (1950-2016) is just 5.8". If the latest guidance is right, one will probably need to wait until after the 10th before the AO goes negative.

Of course, even a light snowfall is better than none, so I'll take whatever falls.

Thanks Don. Good post. Agreed that the AO/PNA combo is not what we want to see. Your perspective is much appreciated. 

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Thanks Don. Good post. Agreed that the AO/PNA combo is not what we want to see. Your perspective is much appreciated. 

Hopefully, an AO-/PNA+ pattern will develop after mid-month with cold and snow replacing what might be a period of moderation that appears likely to commence after the 10th +/- a few days

[PB GFI]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

But the 2m temps keep verifying milder

 

They do not .

Dec 25 thru Jan 10 was called a torch back in mid Dec.

You are conflating temps with lack of snow.

 

When its suppose to get cold Jan 5 thru 15 will be cold .

 

[MJO812]

44 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Thanks Don. Good post. Agreed that the AO/PNA combo is not what we want to see. Your perspective is much appreciated. 

But a -EPO is what we want to see and that's what we have now.

[MJO812]

18z GEFS for the 2nd wave . Looking better.