JerseyWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: it would make sense for it to happen in Jan. Normals are as low as they get, so you could still have a big +++ departure and get some snow. Much harder to do in Dec, Feb and March. A +7 in Feb means alot of days in the 50's. I agree, plus the daylight starts getting very noticeable by February. 1 hour ago, WEATHERBUFF said: Yes but philly and dc have not done too well. Yeah, definitely not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 NYC actually tied with last year for the number of days from 12/1-1/30 with daily low temperatures staying above 32. Notice how nearly all the top years except 1932 and 1973 have been since 1998. Close to 40 days is average for Norfolk , VA. 41...2002,1932 39...2017,2016 38...2012,2007,1998 36...2013,1973 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 January concluded with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) at +1.733 (preliminary value). The preliminary monthly average was +0.915 and 94% of the days in January saw a positive AO. For meteorological winter to date, the AO has averaged +1.319. The lowest figure was -0.297 on December 2, 2016. The highest figure was +4.742 on December 21, 2016. To date, 89% days have seen the AO > 0. If every day starting tomorrow had negative values, positive values would have occurred on 61% of days during meteorological winter. The distribution of values to date has been: +3 or above: 4% +2 or above: 19% +1 or above: 60% >0: 89% <0: 11% -1 or below: 0% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 20 hours ago, bluewave said: We are already at record levels of snowfall for it being this warm in January. This is the first time that JFK finished with above normal snowfall for it being so mild. Closest Januaries at to currently monthly average 1990...39.4...1.4" 2016...39.1...11.1"....ties for 4th warmest on record through 1/29 2006...39.1...2.1" 2002...38.9...4.1" 1949...38.1...5.2" and it's snowing here again- started at 10 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 2:23 PM, bluewave said: Areas north of our region will be the big warm departure winners in January. January departures through 1/28 MSS...+12.1 BTV...+11.6 LGA...+7.0 PHL...+5.8 DCA..+6.5 and we thought it would be a better winter for them up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 todays ao forecast is encouraging...we just could see a negative ao in the near future...If tomorrow's forecast is similar then I will expect it to happen...It probably will back off a bit...that's happened all year so far...all we need is a few weeks with a negative ao like February 1993...that could help set up some interesting scenarios down the line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 minute ago, uncle W said: todays ao forecast is encouraging...we just could see a negative ao in the near future...If tomorrow's forecast is similar then I will expect it to happen...It probably will back off a bit...that's happened all year so far...all we need is a few weeks with a negative ao like February 1993...that could help set up some interesting scenarios down the line... Hopefully, otherwise we run out of time. Outside of a few renegade events, March 20-21 seems to be around the date when to expect our last accumulating snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Paragon said: and we thought it would be a better winter for them up north. NWS Burlington @NWSBurlington 20h Plus a little "Did You Know", this will be the second consecutive January to feature no zero or below days in Burlington, VT #vtwxtwitter.com/NWSBurlington/… View details · Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 21 minutes ago, uncle W said: todays ao forecast is encouraging...we just could see a negative ao in the near future...If tomorrow's forecast is similar then I will expect it to happen...It probably will back off a bit...that's happened all year so far...all we need is a few weeks with a negative ao like February 1993...that could help set up some interesting scenarios down the line... I've seen such a beautiful forecast of AO a few weeks ago. Didn't verify and flipped the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 20 minutes ago, Paragon said: Hopefully, otherwise we run out of time. Outside of a few renegade events, March 20-21 seems to be around the date when to expect our last accumulating snowfall. the period from February 22-March 22 can be snowy...It can also be Sunny and 80...I thought all along March would see above normal snowfall...First we have to get thru February...it is known as the snowiest month on average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Morris said: I've seen such a beautiful forecast of AO a few weeks ago. Didn't verify and flipped the next day. today's forecast better than yesterdays...three days in a row now that showed a negative ao developing...tomorrow could be different like so many times this year...this is the first time the forecast hasn't backed off after two days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, uncle W said: the period from February 22-March 22 can be snowy...It can also be Sunny and 80...I thought all along March would see above normal snowfall...First we have to get thru February...it is known as the snowiest month on average... Yep, snow in the first week of March is more likely than in the first week of December. There does seem to be a sharp drop off in opportunities after March 22, even in the winters you analoged. Funny thing is, snow seems to be more common in the first week of April than it is in the last week of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, uncle W said: the period from February 22-March 22 can be snowy...It can also be Sunny and 80...I thought all along March would see above normal snowfall...First we have to get thru February...it is known as the snowiest month on average... Best case scenario would be a snowy February and a snowy March Some of your analogs showed that. It's also quite possible that this February ends up being the coldest out of the three winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Top ten warmest January around the region. NYC...38.0...+5.4...#13 LGA...39.7....+6.8...#6 JFK....38.6...+5.9...#6 ISP...36.2....+5.6...#6 BDR..36.9....+6.8...#1 EWR..37.8....+6.2....#9 POU...32.2....+6.5...#6 BTV...29.7....+11.0...#3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Avg. temp for Jan. here was 35.7, or +5.1. My area really radiates, probably accounts for the slightly smaller departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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