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January 2017 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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On January 28, 2017 at 1:02 AM, pazzo83 said:

No freezing temp yet at the park, so this stretch will go from Jan 16th to Jan 28th.  Remarkable.

Going back to 1950, this was one of the longest streaks above freezing in NYC that began between between January 15-31. A couple of years

carried into the first few days of February even though the bulk of days were in late January. Needless to say, nearly all the post 1950 records

were since 1999.

 

2012...14 days

2002...12 days

2017...12 days

1974...10 days

1999...9 days

2006...8 days

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22 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Forecasted low last night was 31, only made it to 37, average is 15...that's a torch.  Granted my actual low for the day will occur closer to midnight tonight but still...  

Temp talk <yawn>  

Fail. I was 36 around midnight. I was briefly below freezing once since the 19th. And another bust on the low this morning.  Unbelievable warmth.  

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This is the third such streak this winter for me.

1. 12/01-12/09 (9 days)

2. 12/22-01/04 (14 days)

3. 01/17-Today (12 days and counting)

Looking over my weather station's data, I see only 17 days with temps below 32.0°F this winter. A lot of "almost, but not quite", but still impressive nonetheless.

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Went far enough below freezing for long enough to freeze the surface of the ground and put a thin ice coating on small bodies of water that are wind sheltered.  Went for a mt bike ride this morning and the crust from the mixed up recent frozen precip was mostly supportive enough to ride on top of it without breaking through.  There is a lot of moving water in the forest around here at the moment and all of the reservoirs are full and the overflow dams are running strong.  Apparently the long term drought has been erased, at least on the surface but not sure how deep the soil moisture is still low.   We've had two days now of random flakes falling with no accumulation but it's nice to see the lake streamers making it this far east.

 

Looking forward to a week or so of near normal temps and the ground hardening up some with some potential snow mid week.

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57 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

44 here and at BDR.   Another + departure for the month and l Warmer than modeled just 2-3 days ago.

It's amazing how days that look cold in forecasts and in 850mb temperatures turn out mild. Just a few days ago, we were supposed to be in the upper 30s Sunday with 850s near -10C...now we're pushing mid 40s. I wonder if the lack of Northeast snow cover and warmer than normal SSTs cause this.

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2 minutes ago, nzucker said:

It's amazing how days that look cold in forecasts and in 850mb temperatures turn out mild. Just a few days ago, we were supposed to be in the upper 30s Sunday with 850s near -10C...now we're pushing mid 40s. I wonder if the lack of Northeast snow cover and warmer than normal SSTs cause this.

my son told me there's at least 2" of solid ice around the country house in Wild Acres...so far there hasn't been a storm over 5" by the house...That is on the low side...a 5" storm is nothing compared with other years largest snowfalls in that area...

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

the warm January analogs for weak la nina's or neutral after an el nino...these analogs had a major storm in either February or March...

warm jan analogs.png

feb mar warm jan analogs.png

That's VERY encouraging. Hopefully something major (12"+) can pop up in February around here to salvage what has been a very lackluster winter

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I continue to be quite intrigued by the potential stratospheric progression over the next couple weeks, which may lead to situation whereby NAM values reach their minima in the second half of February into the first half of March. The models are slowly but surely beginning to detect what I've been noting over the past week concerning the more effective wave-2 follow up, subsequent to the initial ongoing w1/displacement event. The susceptibility of the stratospheric vortex to further attacks will be increased via the w1, but it will be insufficient insofar as significant tropospheric geopotential height reversal in the NAM/NAO domains. However, the wave-2 precursor should induce an upward propagating splitting wave, possibly in the 2/8-2/15 period. Dual action from the Eurasian and Pacific sides could effectuate a fairly rapid tropospheric response by mid February and onward.

 

I am not yet at the inflection point of pulling the trigger on this evolution definitively, in terms of stratospheric progression and subsequent tropospheric response, but my confidence on the probability of its occurrence is increasing. The resultant impacts could be our most negative NAO/AO period of the winter, circa 2/15-3/15. The NAO and AO are neutral to positive for the first half of Feb.

 

As far as the synoptic set-ups for snow prior to 2/15, 2/6 still looks like a time frame to monitor for a moderate event. I am not as interested in 2/6 as I was in prior days, but it still holds potential certainly.

 

Regardless, an intriguing period of tracking from a meteorological, academic perspective at the very least. Changes are clearly afoot with the BDC and O3 transport, although the WQBO will attempt to destructively interfere, its modulation will be lessened by the double-jab wave flux. I expect stratospheric charts to become more impressive again in the D10+.

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I also forgot to note that the concurrent MJO pulse reaching possibly phase 8 circa 2/12 should work synergistically with the w2, lending further credence to the possible -NAO/AO development Feb 15+ with the more significant storm risk (maybe) coming thereafter due to lag.

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Several stations set new records for the most January days with the minimum temperatures staying above freezing.

BDR...16 days...#1

ISP....14 days...#1

LGA...21 days...#3

JFK...19 days....#1..tie

NYC..19 days....#4...tie

EWR..18 days....#2

impressive.   Seems that night time lows drove the warmth (most stations at +6 to +7) versus big departures during the day (outside of 1 or 2 days)

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

impressive.   Seems that night time lows drove the warmth (most stations at +6 to +7) versus big departures during the day (outside of 1 or 2 days)

From the preliminary numbers, BDR is +6.3 on the daily high and +8.4 on the minimum for a +7.2 mean departure so far.

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21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

From the preliminary numbers, BDR is +6.3 on the daily high and +8.4 on the minimum for a +7.2 mean departure so far.

IF BDR were to get a couple of inches of snow out of tomorrow's system, it would be an interesting month, +7 yet 3 measureable snow events totaling 8-10 inches.

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23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

IF BDR were to get a couple of inches of snow out of tomorrow's system, it would be an interesting month, +7 yet 3 measureable snow events totaling 8-10 inches.

The milder temps will not effect the snowfall total like it would further south, especially 40 south.

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35 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

IF BDR were to get a couple of inches of snow out of tomorrow's system, it would be an interesting month, +7 yet 3 measureable snow events totaling 8-10 inches.

We are already at record levels of snowfall for it being this warm in January. This is the first time that JFK finished with above normal snowfall for it being so mild.

Closest Januaries at to currently monthly average

1990...39.4...1.4"

2016...39.1...11.1"....ties for 4th warmest on record through 1/29

2006...39.1...2.1"

2002...38.9...4.1"

1949...38.1...5.2"

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31 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Still pretty impressive that the NYC stations can see around 10 inches of snow within such a warm pattern though.

it would make sense for it to happen in Jan.   Normals are as low as they get, so you could still have a big +++ departure and get some snow.  Much harder to do in Dec, Feb and March.   A +7 in Feb means alot of days in the 50's.

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