January 2017 Discussion & Observations

[nzucker]

33 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Surprised they didn't reach zero last year when New York city hit -1.

 

global warming is happening no matter how you look at it. 

NYC reached -1F in February. Their low was like -15F that night. We are talking about January.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, nzucker said:

NYC reached -1F in February. Their low was like -15F that night. We are talking about January.

Another warm winter for NNE. But they are doing better in the snow department then last year 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Another warm winter for NNE. But they are doing better in the snow department then last year 

Not hard, that was incredibly anomalous. Probably something like 1-500 or 1000 year type event. I was ahead of Kilington peak at 4300 feet in central Vermont until mid February for snowfall  

[nzucker]

37 minutes ago, uncle W said:

here's the whole breakdown of days with minimum temperatures 32 or lower...only 46 last year and we are on pace for 50 or less this year unless March is cold...2011-12 nad 2012-13 had 97 between them...2015-16 and 2016-17 could have less...

2011-12 had a record low of 37 days and had 23 at the end of January. We will only have 24-25 at the end of January, but that year had the record warmth in March with multiple days in the 80s and only 4 minima below freezing. I don't think we'll get that few with the repeated assaults on the vortex and declining La Nina portending a cold March. We should also get some with the -EPO in early February.

The two year record may be at risk though. We only have 67 now and need 31 more to get past the 11-12/12-13 total of 97. If February torches after the first week, that record could be in danger. The fact that we got so few in January when it's easy to have 25-30 nights below 32F makes it close.

You can really see the overall warming of the climate in these numbers. Winter minima are expected to increase the most in global warming, so the decrease in freezing nights is expected. Even the milder winters of the 40s, 50s, and 60s had like 60-65 nights below freezing...now the mild winters have 45-50. Nights below freezing and coldest winter temperature are also important in the ecosystem (pest control, which trees and plants grow, migration). So this will cause larger changes.

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Not hard, that was incredibly anomalous. Probably something like 1-500 or 1000 year type event. I was ahead of Kilington peak at 4300 feet in central Vermont until mid February for snowfall  

That true. It was historically bad in that region last year. 

[NortheastPAWx]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

That true. It was historically bad in that region last year. 

The whole interior had a brutal winter last year. Binghamton I believe had its lowest seasonal snowfall on record.

[bluewave]

Another top ten warmest month for LGA and other local stations in the warmest decade on record around the area.

Top 10 warmest months at LGA since 2010:

Streak #1

3/10....#3

4/10....#1

5/10....#5

6/10....#1

7/10....#1

8/10....#8

9/10....#5

 

Streak #2

7/11....#9

9/11....#9

11/11...#5

12/11...#5

1/12....#10

2/12....#1

3/12....#1

4/12....#3

5/12....#6

7/12....#9

8/12....#6

9/12....#9

 

7/13....#3

 

Streak #3

5/15....#3

8/15....#3

9/15....#2

11/15...#3

12/15...#1

3/16....#2

7/16....#4

8/16....#1

9/16....#2 

11/16...#5

1/17....#6 through the 26th

[Allsnow]

Another mild morning with temps around 40

[nyblizz44]

Painful winter. We have been lucky to see 10 inches at the park and luckier still to see 14 at JFK. For a brief moment it appeared that Feb would be cold and snowy at leas ttill the 15th Feb but closer we get to date clearer it become a warm up might return sooner than later. When we are lunging at air for a Norlun and a clipper that's all you need to know about this winter....My only hope at this point is we get lucky, thread needle and when we do its big. I think that's the only we see average snowfall this year

[Allsnow]

Flurries falling now 

[NJwx85]

Just picked up a quick coating of sleet.

I've had more sleet in the last week than the last three Winters combined.

[mattinpa]

1 hour ago, nyblizz44 said:

Painful winter. We have been lucky to see 10 inches at the park and luckier still to see 14 at JFK. For a brief moment it appeared that Feb would be cold and snowy at leas ttill the 15th Feb but closer we get to date clearer it become a warm up might return sooner than later. When we are lunging at air for a Norlun and a clipper that's all you need to know about this winter....My only hope at this point is we get lucky, thread needle and when we do its big. I think that's the only we see average snowfall this year

The 6z GFS was hopeful, but I know things will change back and forth. The good thing is legit threats are finally becoming a possibility after a week. My winter has been even worse than NYC's and even Philly's - just a couple inches have fallen.

[IrishRob17]

56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the only parts of the US which will have a cold departure for DJF are the NW sections.

 

 

 

Forecasted low last night was 31, only made it to 37, average is 15...that's a torch.  Granted my actual low for the day will occur closer to midnight tonight but still...  

Temp talk <yawn>  

[donsutherland1]

The GFS ensembles have returned to an all-too-familiar forecast concerning the Arctic Oscillation: the general continuation of an AO+.

An EPO-/PNA+/AO+ pattern typically yields somewhat below normal to near normal readings for the February 1-15 period. The ensembles seem to support such an idea right now.

An issue going forward concerns whether the EPO will flip to positive for the second half of February. Whether or not the PNA remains positive will not materially impact the outcome, as wave lengths are typically starting to shorten during the second half of February. Both an EPO+/PNA+/AO+ and EPO+/PNA-/AO+ pattern would favor warmer than normal readings in much of the eastern United States during the 2/15-28 period. The latter, though, has typically produced warmer readings, but both patterns have usually seen comfortably above normal temperatures.

A colder-than-normal second half of February will likely depend on the state of the EPO and AO.

[JerseyWx]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the first time since the 49-50 La Nina that Montana and Florida have exhibited such a strong cold-warm departure dipole.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah, Montana is having a classic Rocky Mountain winter.  Tons of cold up there, and in the Upper Great Plains as well.

[WEATHERBUFF]

It is sure looking like the east coast is taking the brunt of global warming over recent times. January has averaged about 1.5 degrees warmer the last 20 years over the useless 1981-2010 so called normal.

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Yeah, Montana is having a classic Rocky Mountain winter.  Tons of cold up there, and in the Upper Great Plains as well.

Talking to my friends in South Florida and they have never seen this kind of warmth in the winter down there before.

Brian McNoldy @BMcNoldy	3h
Another record high yesterday in #Miami... Since Dec 1, 28 new daily warm records, with 5 new monthly records! @UMiamiRSMAS@capitalweather pic.twitter.com/wDMcq1L1er
View photo ·

[snowman19]

52 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The GFS ensembles have returned to an all-too-familiar forecast concerning the Arctic Oscillation: the general continuation of an AO+.

An EPO-/PNA+/AO+ pattern typically yields somewhat below normal to near normal readings for the February 1-15 period. The ensembles seem to support such an idea right now.

An issue going forward concerns whether the EPO will flip to positive for the second half of February. Whether or not the PNA remains positive will not materially impact the outcome, as wave lengths are typically starting to shorten during the second half of February. Both an EPO+/PNA+/AO+ and EPO+/PNA-/AO+ pattern would favor warmer than normal readings in much of the eastern United States during the 2/15-28 period. The latter, though, has typically produced warmer readings, but both patterns have usually seen comfortably above normal temperatures.

A colder-than-normal second half of February will likely depend on the state of the EPO and AO.

The negative WPO periods have proved to be very transient since December 1st. We never really saw any AO and NAO cooperation at all this winter, they have both been persistently positive. Once we get to mid February, if the PNA flips negative again and the EPO goes positive, the fate of the second half of the month will be written...

[JerseyWx]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Talking to my friends in South Florida and they have never seen this kind of warmth in the winter down there before.

Brian McNoldy @BMcNoldy	3h
Another record high yesterday in #Miami... Since Dec 1, 28 new daily warm records, with 5 new monthly records! @UMiamiRSMAS@capitalweather pic.twitter.com/wDMcq1L1er
View photo ·

It's incredible.  We have a friend in the Orlando area, and he can't believe the warmth either.

[psv88]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Talking to my friends in South Florida and they have never seen this kind of warmth in the winter down there before.

Brian McNoldy @BMcNoldy	3h
Another record high yesterday in #Miami... Since Dec 1, 28 new daily warm records, with 5 new monthly records! @UMiamiRSMAS@capitalweather pic.twitter.com/wDMcq1L1er
View photo ·

Just booked my flight to South Florida for February 15 to 20th. Hoping the warmth continues.

[psv88]

Few flurries this morning, low of 39.

[CIK62]

Remainder of month will be about +4.5degs., so  (6.1)(26)=159 and (4.5)(5) =22   so say 181/31 and a final est. for Jan. is +5.8degs.

I also see no definitive below normal day till say Feb. 03.     Best according to CFS is going to be Feb. 10-19.   By Feb. 21 things look like Jan. 21. 

BTW:   This would give us just 7BN days in a 43 day period, even worse than the 27% BN days I calculated earlier in season for a 21 month period.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The negative WPO periods have proved to be very transient since December 1st. We never really saw any AO and NAO cooperation at all this winter, they have both been persistently positive. Once we get to mid February, if the PNA flips negative again and the EPO goes positive, the fate of the second half of the month will be written...

Like you, I am concerned that the second half of February, or at least a good part of it, could well wind up warmer than normal. I'm assuming that the AO will remain predominantly positive on the basis of pattern persistence. The AO cannot be reliably forecast that far out and correlations with October 500 mb patterns (October Pattern Index that had been mention in the past) or Eurasian snow cover developments in October (SAI) are too weak to provide a great deal of confidence. There are other variables involved and those other variables have overwhelmed the SAI signal during winters 2014-15, 2015-16, and now 2016-17. The SAI suggested that all three winters would have a predominantly negative AO. The opposite has occurred and it is possible that winter 2016-17 could see 80% or more days with a positive AO. To put things into perspective for this winter, even if every remaining day of meteorological winter had a negative AO, the AO would still have been positive on 57% days.

It still appears that the imminent stratospheric warming (Wave 1-driven) will be insufficient to break the predominant AO+ regime. The zonal winds are not forecast to reverse below 10 mb. The possibility that there is some increase in AO- days remains on the table based on climatology and the forecast moderate upper stratospheric warming. Moderate upper stratospheric warming is the right description. The warming will be impressive but only at 2 mb and above. It is not sufficiently broad in scale to be described as major, even as there are numerous social media descriptions of a major warming. Those claims are inaccurate. It is tempting to see the charts that show a significant warming in stratospheric temperatures and conclude that a major warming is forecast. But one needs to look at all levels of the stratosphere and also examine zonal mean winds, fluxes, etc. Only then, can one get a full picture of what's going on. Short cuts that rely solely on temperature change provide an incomplete read on stratospheric developments. Doing so is akin to assuming that a snowstorm will occur when the surface temperature is at or below 32° without looking at the soundings. It might be fast, but it's the wrong way to look at the stratosphere.

A major warming would impact the stratosphere from 30 mb and up over a short period of time and result in a zonal mean wind reversal at 1 mb, 10 mb, and 30 mb. As modeled, that does not appear to be likely right now (see the attached selection of ECMWF charts courtesy of FU-Berlin; I added the description of a reversal and no reversal for those who are not familiar with those charts). Therefore, at least based on the current modeling, descriptions of a "major" stratospheric warming are exaggerations.

In sum, I have concerns about the second half of February. Overall, a warmer than normal monthly anomaly (but nothing like January) probably remains more likely than not.

[dmillz25]

Flurries here in bed stuy Brooklyn 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

40 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Flurries here in bed stuy Brooklyn 

Must be pretty cold alloft. We have had on and off flurries out on the island for a few hours despite warm surface temps

[WEATHERBUFF]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Like you, I am concerned that the second half of February, or at least a good part of it, could well wind up warmer than normal. I'm assuming that the AO will remain predominantly positive on the basis of pattern persistence. The AO cannot be reliably forecast that far out and correlations with October 500 mb patterns (October Pattern Index that had been mention in the past) or Eurasian snow cover developments in October (SAI) are too weak to provide a great deal of confidence. There are other variables involved and those other variables have overwhelmed the SAI signal during winters 2014-15, 2015-16, and now 2016-17. The SAI suggested that all three winters would have a predominantly negative AO. The opposite has occurred and it is possible that winter 2016-17 could see 80% or more days with a positive AO. To put things into perspective for this winter, even if every remaining day of meteorological winter had a negative AO, the AO would still have been positive on 57% days.

It still appears that the imminent stratospheric warming (Wave 1-driven) will be insufficient to break the predominant AO+ regime. The zonal winds are not forecast to reverse below 10 mb. The possibility that there is some increase in AO- days remains on the table based on climatology and the forecast moderate upper stratospheric warming. Moderate upper stratospheric warming is the right description. The warming will be impressive but only at 2 mb and above. It is not sufficiently broad in scale to be described as major, even as there are numerous social media descriptions of a major warming. Those claims are inaccurate. It is tempting to see the charts that show a significant warming in stratospheric temperatures and conclude that a major warming is forecast. But one needs to look at all levels of the stratosphere and also examine zonal mean winds, fluxes, etc. Only then, can one get a full picture of what's going on. Short cuts that rely solely on temperature change provide an incomplete read on stratospheric developments. Doing so is akin to assuming that a snowstorm will occur when the surface temperature is at or below 32° without looking at the soundings. It might be fast, but it's the wrong way to look at the stratosphere.

A major warming would impact the stratosphere from 30 mb and up over a short period of time and result in a zonal mean wind reversal at 1 mb, 10 mb, and 30 mb. As modeled, that does not appear to be likely right now (see the attached selection of ECMWF charts courtesy of FU-Berlin; I added the description of a reversal and no reversal for those who are not familiar with those charts). Therefore, at least based on the current modeling, descriptions of a "major" stratospheric warming are exaggerations.

In sum, I have concerns about the second half of February. Overall, a warmer than normal monthly anomaly (but nothing like January) probably remains more likely than not.

Warmer than the 1981-2010 average is almost a sure thing every month.

[bluewave]

JFK is going to come the closest that it ever has to a 10/40 January following the first 40/40 winter last year.

DJF...2015-2016...41.1"....40.8

Jan...2017............11.1"...39.1 so far

Jan..avg...............6.3".....32.7

 

[Isotherm]

 

With respect to the pattern, my confidence continues to grow that this winter is gradually improving rather than a maintenance of status quo. Displacement induced tilting will not be sufficient to force a major zonal wind reversal in the coming days, but reconsolidation will be slow / painful, with IMO, an increasingly likelihood of a follow-up wave-2 convergence about a week or so later. This isn't really being detected by the model data yet,  but it should in the coming days. The vortex will be extremely susceptible in early February, and we're entering a regime for further robust driving. When a boxer attempts to knock someone out, it's much easier do to so after several hard punches, rather than waiting until the opponent regains his/her footing and strength. Not too dissimilarly, a delay in follow-up wave driving permits rapid reconsolidation, but the entrance into a propitious precursor regime implies an already depressed vortex state will be threatened with potentially fatal blows.

 

The first real threat has been 2/6 period to me, but even if that one doesn't work out, I tend to think the tropospheric pattern may become more blocky as we progress into mid / late February. The lack of NAM / NAO cooperation has been detrimental for the East Coast in times of WPO/EPO pulses. Contemporaneous geopotential height response would yield a significantly more auspicious set-up for coastal snowfall. The tropical forcing progression, additionally, looks good to me for renewed ridging near Alaska, after this initial cut-off block retrogrades away.

 

The long and short of it is as follows: February will be our best month of the meteorological winter this year. The extent to which the sensible weather is pleasing for winter lovers will be largely a function of effective stratospheric activity and other variables. But I am willing to say at this point that February looks much closer to normal temperature wise, with likely at least normal snowfall for the month. March could either resume January's furnace is the strat progression falls apart, or feature a nice late winter regime. 1973-74 still looks great as an analog.

[Isotherm]

Don, I agree regarding this initial failed attempt in the stratosphere. I do like the 2/6 window for possible snow, but as I said, even if it misses, it's possible the pattern is more auspicious down the road. Based upon my research, more wave activity should follow with potentially a more effective attack on the vortex about a week subsequent. I would certainly leave the door open to the idea that we resume our base pattern; however, I am becoming cautiously optimistic about mid February / onward. At the very least, a closer to normal temperature regime looks reasonable right now in February with opportunities. 

[pazzo83]

No freezing temp yet at the park, so this stretch will go from Jan 16th to Jan 28th.  Remarkable.