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January 2017 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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there have been some good March's for a neutral winter or weak la nina following an el nino winter...this year could end up as a weak la nina or weak negative winter...the last three oni tri monthly periods were -0.8...before we get to March there were three years with a big February storm...

year....March snows............................

1955.....2.7".....0.1".....0.8".....biggest snow was early Feb...3.9"...

1960...14.5".....0.1".....0.3".....1.5".....1.9".....0.2".....biggest snow was early March...14.5"...

1965.....1.1".....1.7".....1.2".....biggest snow was 6.3" in January...

1967.....2.0".....2.6".....3.0".....9.8".....Biggest snow was 12.5" in early Feb...

1979.....trace.....biggest storm was 12.7" in Feb...

1981.....8.6".....biggest snow was 8.6" in early March...

1984.....0.3".....6.9".....1.4".....3.3".....Biggest snow was 6.9" in March...

1993.....0.2".....0.3"...10.6".....0.8".....Biggest snow was 10.6" in March...

2004.....4.0".....0.8".....biggest snow was 14.0" in December...

2006.....1.3".....biggest snow was 26.9" in Feb...

stronger la nina after el nino.....

1971.....1.3".....biggest snow was Jan. 1st...6.3"...

1974.....3.2".....biggest snow was 5.7" in February...

1989.....2.5".....biggest snow was 5.0" in January...

1999.....4.5".....biggest snow was 4.5" in March...

2008.....trace.....biggest snow was 6.0" in Feb...

 

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Once we get to March 1st you really start fighting against the clock for winter south of New England. I would certainly not want to hinge hopes of a "winter comeback" on the month of March

Last few years have been great for snow in March and early April. Have had a few nice events, so I dont believe that March 1 is the end. I think after March 20 or so it becomes more difficult, but we have had plenty of good storms in early March. 

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Should be the last day of the real torch. What a unreal stretch of warm weather in the heart of winter. 

It's remarkable how similar the 500 mb pattern from January 10th on has been to December 2015.

The January 10 to 25 departure was +10 vs +13 for last December. 

 

17.gif

15.gif

 

 

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It's remarkable how similar the 500 mb pattern from January 10th on has been to December 2015.

The January 10 to 25 departure was +10 vs +13 for last December. 

 

17.gif

15.gif

 

 

The odd thing is how cold Europe has been.  The only other instance I know of where Europe had a cold winter in the absence of a -NAO and the US was mild is 1990-91.   The two similarities to that winter so far in the US are the cold west and this region being relatively snowy given how bad the pattern has been 

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10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The odd thing is how cold Europe has been.  The only other instance I know of where Europe had a cold winter in the absence of a -NAO and the US was mild is 1990-91.   The two similarities to that winter so far in the US are the cold west and this region being relatively snowy given how bad the pattern has been 

It's not a totally flat Atlantic because there is some blocking near the UK, which is pulling cold air from the east into Europe due to the circulation around the ridge. That pseudoblock or east-based NAO/NATL ridge tends to be better for Europe than for the Northeast US.

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10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The odd thing is how cold Europe has been.  The only other instance I know of where Europe had a cold winter in the absence of a -NAO and the US was mild is 1990-91.   The two similarities to that winter so far in the US are the cold west and this region being relatively snowy given how bad the pattern has been 

Yeah, the strong block west of the UK created the same sensible weather pattern as a -NAO/-AO for much of Europe. It's a great example of how blocking

near teleconnection regions can mimic them even when it falls outside the region.

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6 minutes ago, nzucker said:

NYC has had only 10 minima of 32F or less this January and only 2 maxima of 32F or less. That's got to be up there with Jan 2012, 2006, and 2002.

We've also been above freezing since the morning of Jan 16.  10+ days of temps above 32 in the middle of January is pretty insane.

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15 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

We've also been above freezing since the morning of Jan 16.  10+ days of temps above 32 in the middle of January is pretty insane.

Just a ugly winter anyway you slice it. The departures up in sne are pretty crazy for January also. We torch 

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2 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

We've also been above freezing since the morning of Jan 16.  10+ days of temps above 32 in the middle of January is pretty insane.

Yes, ridiculously long stretch of no cold air in what is traditionally the coldest part of winter. I think we've had 13 straight days with 40+ highs at KNYC.

It will be hard to get a Top Ten warmest winter given the +2 to +3 departure in December. We'd need the Feb 10-28 period to REALLY torch. Last year we put up a +13 in December which made it easy despite January finishing only +2.8 and Feb a degree milder.

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4 hours ago, nzucker said:

NYC has had only 10 minima of 32F or less this January and only 2 maxima of 32F or less. That's got to be up there with Jan 2012, 2006, and 2002.

here's the whole breakdown of days with minimum temperatures 32 or lower...only 46 last year and we are on pace for 50 or less this year unless March is cold...2011-12 nad 2012-13 had 97 between them...2015-16 and 2016-17 could have less...

total monthly minimums 32 or lower...total minimums 32 or lower...consecutive days with a minimum 32 or lower...total days with a max 32 or lower...consecutive days with a max 32 or lower...

year.........Oct...Nov...Dec...Jan...Feb...Mar...Apr...Total min/con...total max/con

2016-17......0.......0.....11.....10..............................21.....7.......5.....3..................... as of 1/26

2015-16......0.......1.......0.....21.....14......7......3......46.....9.....10.....4

2014-15......0.......7.......9.....25.....28.....16......1......86...38.....26.....5

2013-14......0.......9.....19.....24.....21.....19......1......93...16.....33.....7

2012-13......0.......3.......8.....18.....17.....14.......0.....60...11.....15.....6

2011-12......0.......0.....10.....13.....10.......4.......0.....37.....5.......6.....2

2010-11......0.......0.....25.....28.....19.....11.......0.....83...18.....22.....4

 

2009-10......0.......0.....17.....22.....22.......2.......0.....63...23.....17.....3

2008-09......0.......6.....19.....30.....20.....11.......0.....86...26.....22.....3

2007-08......0.......3.....14.....20.....18.......7.......0.....62...14.......6.....2

2006-07......0.......0.......6.....18.....24.....11.......4.....63...36.....18.....9

2005-06......0.......5.....20.....10.....18.....14.......0.....67...14.......9.....2

2004-05......0.......5.....15.....17.....20.....14.......0.....71...29.....18.....9

2003-04......0.......1.....17.....26.....21.....10.......3.....78...20.....26.....9

2002-03......0.......3.....18.....28.....21.....13.......3.....86...22.....31...12

2001-02......0.......0.......9.....11.....15.......9.......3.....47...12.......3.....2

2000-01......0.......6.....29.....23.....18.....13.......0.....89...22.....20...13

 

1999-00......0.......1.....10.....22.....18.......4.......1.....56...28.....18.....7

1998-99......0.......0.......8.....20.....13.....11.......0.....52...18.....13.....3

1997-98......0.......8.....10.....13.......9.......9.......0.....49.....4.......3.....2

1996-97......0.......8.......7.....25.....14.....12.......3.....69...14.....11.....3

1995-96......0.......8.....24.....24.....18.....15.......0.....89...15.....30.....9

1994-95......0.......3.....10.....19.....20.......5.......3.....60...14.....11.....5

1993-94......0.......3.....15.....29.....24.....13.......0.....84...26.....31.....5

1992-93......0.......5.....13.....21.....27.....14.......0.....80...22.......7.....3

1991-92......0.......2.....15.....19.....15.....16.......1.....68...14.......9.....2

1990-91......0.......2.....11.....20.....14.......6.......1.....54.....8.......7.....1

 

1989-90......0.......9.....31.....10.....15.......9.......0.....74...33.....19.....9

1988-89......1.......1.....19.....16.....21.....13.......0.....71...11.....19.....3

1987-88......0.......5.......9.....24.....23.....11.......0.....72...16.....19.....7

1986-87......0.......6.....10.....23.....23.....11.......1.....74...19.....11.....5

1985-86......0.......0.....23.....21.....21.......9.......0.....74...12.....19.....4

1984-85......0.......5.......6.....28.....18.....10.......2.....69...35.....18.....5

1983-84......0.......1.....17.....26.....10.....13.......0.....67...19.....29.....8

1982-83......0.......4.....10.....18.....14.......7.......0.....53...12.....13.....4

1981-82......0.......2.....15.....26.....20.......9.......5.....77...24.....20.....6

1980-81......0.......2.....24.....27.....14.....12.......0.....79...24.....30...11

 

1979-80......0.......1.....12.....22.....24.....10.......1.....70...31.....19.....5

1978-79......0.......3.....15.....20.....21.......8.......1.....68...22.....26...11

1977-78......0.......4.....15.....27.....27.....13.......1.....87...22.....42...12

1976-77......2.....11.....25.....31.....17.......7.......3.....96...51.....45.....9

1975-76......1.......0.....21.....30.....14.......8.......2.....76...26.....20.....3

1974-75......3.......7.....12.....16.....16.....15.......6.....75...17.......8.....2

1973-74......0.......2.....16.....20.....24.....12.......2.....76...15.....23.....3

1972-73......1.......7.......9.....17.....21.......3.......0.....57.....9.....13.....4

1971-72......0.......5.....12.....18.....23.....16.......4.....78...11.....17.....5

1970-71......0.......4.....21.....29.....12.....12.......0.....78...16.....25.....5

 

1969-70......2.......5.....24.....30.....21.....14.......1.....97...45.....27.....6

1968-69......0.......1.....22.....22.....21.....15.......1.....82...27.....18.....3

1967-68......0.......9.....14.....24.....26.....13.......1.....87...27.....22.....9

1966-67......0.......2.....22.....19.....25.....16.......3.....86...15.....25.....6

1965-66......1.......3.....10.....22.....21.....10.......0.....67...17.....14.....2

1964-65......0.......4.....18.....28.....19.......9.......1.....79...27.....22.....5

1963-64......0.......0.....22.....16.....25.......9.......3.....75...22.....18.....7

1962-63......0.......4.....22.....23.....25.......8.......0.....82...21.....29.....7

1961-62......0.......5.....20.....24.....22.......7.......0.....78...16.....16.....4

1960-61......0.......3.....26.....27.....14.......8.......0.....78...26.....27...16

 

1959-60......0.......6.....12.....24.....20.....26.......0.....88...20.....15.....3

1958-59......0.......3.....28.....24.....21.....17.......0.....93...23.....26...10

1957-58......0.......3.......9.....21.....22.......3.......1.....59...17.....20...12

1956-57......0.......7.....12.....26.....19.......9.......0.....73...12.....12.....6

1955-56......0.......8.....26.....25.....16.....17.......0.....92...19.....23.....4

1954-55......0.......1.....17.....28.....17.....14.......0.....77...33.....16.....4

1953-54......0.......1.......9.....26.....10.....13.......3.....62...16.....15.....4

1952-53......0.......2.....12.....19.....16.......9.......0.....58.....8.......2.....1

1951-52......0.....11.....19.....20.....19.....14.......0.....83...19.....13.....3

1950-51......0.......3.....19.....19.....17.......9.......0.....67...18.....12.....3

 

1949-50......0.......5.....16.....12.....21.....21.......8.....83...18.....12.....3

1948-49......0.......0.....14.....17.....16.....15.......0.....62.....9.......9.....4

1947-48......0.......4.....25.....29.....24.....13.......1.....96...26.....33...10

1946-47......0.......2.....16.....18.....26.....20.......0.....82...18.....12.....5

1945-46......0.......6.....24.....22.....24.......3.......0.....79...18.....24.....9

1944-45......0.......5.....23.....30.....22.......6.......0.....84...36.....25.....5

1943-44......0.......7.....22.....24.....23.....16.......4.....96...16.....17.....3

1942-43......0.......5.....24.....26.....20.....12.......9.....96...13.....29.....5

1941-42......0.......1.....14.....24.....25.......0.......0.....64...16.....19.....6

1940-41......2.......7.....17.....26.....25.....24.......0...101...14.....16.....4

 

1939-40......0.......6.....16.....28.....22.....23.......4.....99...20.....29.....6

1938-39......0.......6.....19.....21.....15.....17.......2.....80...17.....18.....4

1937-38......0.......4.....18.....24.....18.....11.......2.....77...15.....16.....4

1936-37......2.....13.....15.....14.....22.....19.......0.....85...12.....10.....2

1935-36......0.......3.....21.....23.....25.......7.......1.....80...31.....39...12

1934-35......0.......3.....21.....22.....21.....11.......1.....79...12.....24.....5

1933-34......2.....12.....16.....20.....28.....21.......0.....99...36.....38.....9

1932-33......0.......7.....13.....11.....20.....11.......0.....62...11.....13.....4

1931-32......0.......3.....17.......4.....17.....18.......1.....60...12.......5.....2

1930-31......0.......7.....18.....21.....20.......9.......0.....75...15.....12.....3

 

1929-30......0.......5.....18.....20.....18.....10.......2.....73...12.....25.....8

1928-29......1.......3.....14.....27.....19.......8.......0.....72...18.....15.....4

1927-28......0.......4.....17.....19.....20.....18.......1.....79...15.....20.....5

1926-27......0.......7.....28.....23.....16.....10.......0.....84...14.....24.....6

1925-26......3.......9.....19.....21.....25.....20.......5...102...11.....27.....4

1924-25......0.......9.....22.....30.....13.......7.......2.....83...32.....22.....2

1923-24......0.......3.....10.....24.....28.....16.......2.....83...29.....17.....4

1922-23......0.......9.....20.....28.....26.....20.......4...107...24.....31.....6

1921-22......0.......4.....23.....28.....19.....12.......1.....87...13.....23.....6

1920-21......0.......5.....19.....21.....21.......4.......1.....71.....9.....10.....2

 

1919-20......0.......6.....26.....30.....27.....16.......4...109...25.....40.....7

1918-19......0.......3.....16.....17.....19.......9.......4.....68...12.......7.....3

1917-18......1.......7.....29.....31.....19.....12.......2...101...44.....45...10

1916-17......0.......6.....21.....22.....25.....15.......2.....91...20.....26.....6

1915-16......0.......3.....25.....20.....27.....23.......1.....99...47.....37.....6

1914-15......0.......9.....26.....21.....16.....23.......2.....97...25.....23.....7

1913-14......0.......2.....14.....22.....25.....19.......5.....77...38.....26.....7

1912-13......0.......4.....14.....15.....22.......9.......0.....64...15.....16.....6

1911-12......0.......8.....11.....30.....25.....16.......2.....92...26.....39.....8

1910-11......0.......2.....28.....18.....25.....19.......3.....95...18.....31.....5

 

1909-10......0.......1.....22.....25.....24.....10.......0.....82...19.....26.....6

1908-09......0.......5.....17.....19.....13.....16.......2.....72...10.....11.....2

1907-08......0.......0.......9.....25.....26.....14.......3.....77...22.....18.....4

1906-07......0.......2.....21.....17.....25.....12.......3.....80...17.....28.....5

1905-06......0.......5.....15.....12.....17.....22.......1.....72...15.....10.....2

1904-05......0.......5.....28.....25.....27.....13.......0.....98...30.....40.....8

1903-04......0.....11.....24.....29.....28.....19.......6...117...28.....47.....5

1902-03......0.......0.....20.....23.....19.......4.......2.....68...13.....23.....6

1901-02......0.....10.....15.....29.....24.......6.......0.....84...32.....34.....6

1900-01......0.......3.....16.....22.....28.....14.......0.....83...32.....30.....6

 

1899-00......0.......2.....15.....24.....22.....26.......5.....94...21.....22.....8

1898-99......0.......7.....17.....23.....20.....14.......6.....87...21.....23.....9

1897-98......0.......5.....16.....16.....13.......4.......5.....59...15.....12.....3

1896-97......0.......2.....19.....22.....18.....12.......2.....75...15.....24.....8

1895-96......0.......3.....17.....26.....22.....24.......5.....97...19.....31.....7

1894-95......0.......9.....12.....26.....27.....25.......3...102...41.....35.....9

1893-94......0.......9.....24.....25.....22.......8.......4.....92...14.....16.....3

1892-93......0.......9.....17.....30.....26.....18.......0...100...38.....41...13

1891-92......0.......6.....10.....26.....18.....21.......2.....83...13.....21.....3

1890-91......0.......7.....26.....21.....16.....15.......6.....92...11.....23.....4..... 1 min in May

 

1889-90......1.......6.....11.....21.....15.....19.......3.....76...10.....15.....3

1888-89......0.......9.....21.....17.....26.....11.......0.....84...20.....15.....3

1887-88......2.......8.....20.....31.....24.....23.......4...110...45.....44.....7

1886-87......0.......7.....24.....26.....22.....28.......8...115...28.....33.....5

1885-86......0.......6.....23.....25.....21.....15.......1.....91...22.....29...10

1884-85......0.......5.....16.....25.....28.....25.......3...102...34.....38.....8

1883-84......0.......9.....23.....28.....21.....15.......1.....97...16.....35.....6

1882-83......0.....14.....24.....29.....26.....25.......3...121...32.....39.....6

1881-82......0.......7.....13.....22.....19.....15.......4.....80...13.....21.....5

1880-81......0.....13.....27.....31.....24.....15.......6...111...56.....52...15

 

1879-80......2.....10.....18.....14.....18.....20.......5.....87...11.....12.....2

1878-79......0.......4.....22.....30.....26.....15.......4...101...43.....35.....6

1877-78......0.......8.....18.....22.....19.......7.......0.....74...12.....21.....6

1876-77......1.......2.....29.....29.....12.....18.......2.....93...23.....41.....9

most days with a minimum 32 or lower..............least

1882-83...121.........................................37 in 2011-12

1903-04...117.........................................46 in 2015-16

1886-87...115.........................................47 in 2001-02

1880-81...111.........................................49 in 1997-98

1887-88...110.........................................52 in 1998-99

1919-20...109.........................................53 in 1982-83

1922-23...107.........................................54 in 1990-91

1884-85...102.........................................56 in 1999-00

1894-95...102.........................................57 in 1972-73

1925-26...102.........................................58 in 1952-53

1940-41...101.........................................59 in 1897-98

1878-79...101.........................................59 in 1957-58

1917-18...101.........................................60 in 1931-32

1892-93...100.........................................60 in 1994-95

most days with a maximum 32 or lower...........least....

1880-81.....52...........................................2 in 1952-53

1903-04.....47...........................................3 in 1997-98

1976-77.....45...........................................3 in 2001-02

1917-18.....45...........................................5 in 1931-32

1887-88.....44...........................................6 in 2007-08

1977-78.....42...........................................6 in 2011-12

1876-77.....41...........................................7 in 1990-91

1892-93.....41...........................................7 in 1992-93

1919-20.....40...........................................7 in 1918-19

1904-05.....40...........................................8 in 1974-75

most consecutive days with a minimum 32 or lower...least...

1880-81.....56...........................................4 in 1997-98

1976-77.....51...........................................5 in 2011-12

1915-16.....47...........................................8 in 1990-91

1887-88.....45...........................................8 in 1952-53

1969-70.....45...........................................9 in 1920-21

1917-18.....44...........................................9 in 1948-49

1894-95.....41...........................................9 in 1972-73

2014-15.....38...........................................9 in 2015-16

1892-93.....38.........................................10 in 1889-90

1913-14.....38.........................................10 in 1908-09

most consecutive days with a max 32 or lower...least...

1960-61.....16...........................................1 in 1952-53

1880-81.....15...........................................1 in 1990-91

2000-01.....13...........................................2 in 1905-06

1892-93.....13...........................................2 in 1908-09

2002-03.....12...........................................2 in 1920-21

1977-78.....12...........................................2 in 1924-25

1957-58.....12...........................................2 in 1931-32

1935-36.....12...........................................2 in 1936-37

1980-81.....11...........................................2 in 1965-66

1978-79.....11...........................................2 in 1974-75

1958-59.....10...........................................2 in 1991-92

1947-48.....10...........................................2 in 1997-98

1917-18.....10...........................................2 in 2001-02

1885-86.....10...........................................2 in 2005-06

.................................................................2 in 2007-08

.................................................................2 in 2011-12

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