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January 2017 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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11 hours ago, bluewave said:

Departures continue to build into this week with all stations in the top 15 warmest Januaries through 1/22.

NYC...37.8...+5.4....#13...LGA...39.3...+6.2...#6...JFK...38.3...+5.7...#6...BDR...36.2...+6.0...#6...EWR....37.3...+5.9...#11

 

MonthTDeptUS.png

 

a continuation of December's mild pattern outside the PAC NW....amazing how some patterns just lock in and won't quit.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The new 0z 1/23 EPS weeklies shifts the trough to the GL or East with more of a ridge over Western NOAM. So February would be a departure

from the December and January pattern should it verify.

I'll believe it when I see it along with the voodoo neg nao on the EPS 

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The next 8 days, which will bring us to the end of the month, look to be +8degs.  If so, final positive surplus will be 190degs or +6.1 for the month.  Thus it could be about the tenth month out of the  last 22 to make the Top Ten warmest.  Also, the last 22 days of the month would all be AN w/o the lowly -1 on the 14th.

At least  Feb. 2015 made the Top Ten coldest.  This AN stretch sucks.

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Top ten warmest January for many locations through the 23rd.

The big contrast to this mild January pattern is how much snowfall

stations like JFK have. JFK is at 11.1" this month vs 4.1" in 2002 when

the January average temperature was 38.9 vs 38.5 this month so far.

First January at JFK with above normal snowfall and this mild.

 

NYC...37.8...+5.5....#13

LGA...39.4....+6.3...#6

JFK...38.5....+5.9...#6

ISP...35.9....+5.4....#7

BDR..36.4....+6.2....#5

EWR.37.5....+6.0....#10

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9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Next chance at a winter storm will be the week of the 6th

 

until then cold dry after Thursday 

IMG_0070.PNG

 

The 1st still has a shot but I agree the ensembles like the 6th again today and they look good .

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1 minute ago, PB GFI said:

 

The 1st still has a shot but I agree the ensembles like the 6th again today and they look good .

Looks like we will be able to beat down that southeast ridge as you been talking about. The pattern for the 6th looks real good. I'm optimistic 

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36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Weeklies look very dry Feb 1-4. Maybe a light event or clipper in the progressive pattern. But have SWFE potential Feb 5-12 followed by coastal chance Feb 13-20.

Won't it be too warm for snow for anything after the 11th or 12th or so?

 

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The nor’easter that brought sleet and a little snow well north and west of a line running from Philadelphia to New London and rainfall amounts of 1.00”-2.00” to parts of New Jersey and the greater New York City area will be pulling away later today with perhaps another round of steady precipitation this afternoon. All attention then turns to the opening of February.

For days, the ensembles have generally been advertising the development of an EPO-/PNA-/AO+ pattern. Yesterday, several ensemble members retained a PNA+ for a longer duration and a few also supported the development of an AO-. This morning, there is enough support for both a PNA+ and AO- to open February that it warrants consideration of what such a scenario has typically brought in the past. It should be noted that the GFS ensembles have fared poorly in their long-range forecast of the AO this winter, typically with a fairly large negative bias. Therefore, it is still premature to assume such a pattern will develop. But it is something to watch for, as the European weeklies (which also have had some difficulty this winter in the 3rd week and beyond) have suggested could develop.

Typically, such a pattern would produce colder than normal weather. The composite set (90 dates) would produce a negative anomaly of 0.5° to 1.5°. The frequency of days with measurable snowfall with such a pattern was 30% above climatology for the entire February 1-15, 1981-2010 period. The frequency of days with 2” or more snowfall was 40% above climatology while the frequency of days with 4” or more snow was 15% above climatology.

At this point, some measure of caution remains in order. This is not the first time the ensembles have suggested the development of a PNA+/AO- pattern only to back off. The fading La Niña (illustrated anew by the recent westerly wind burst in the Pacific) and PDO+ tend to favor the development of a PNA+. However, an overwhelming positive AO can dominate the pattern and force the EPO-PNA ridges to retrograde resulting in a PNA-. The growing ensemble support for a PNA+ going into the start of February coincides with a reduction in the forecast AO+ values (now most ensemble members keep the peak below +3.000 vs. the near +5.000 figure of a few days ago). For now, IMO, this scenario remains an alternative outcome that is plausible, but not yet the most likely outcome.

And from the GFS, a fun idea: the 1/24/2017 6z GFS showed a storm exploding to 929 mb near southern Greenland at 384 hours. On January 10, 1993, in the midst of a long AO+ regime, a storm registered a central pressure of 914 mb. By mid-February a cold pattern developed across much of North America and the CONUS and southern Canada had near coast-to-coast cold anomalies for the February 15-28 period. Blocking also developed and held for much of that timeframe. Were a similar scenario to play out, that would offer the possibility that winter 2016-17 could last into at least mid-March in terms of opportunities for frozen precipitation.

It will be interesting to see where things stand this weekend. It still does appear that February 2017 will have temperature anomalies that are closer to normal than January’s will be (perhaps within a degree or two of normal). The odds still somewhat favor the positive departure, but that is far from certain. The development of a PNA+/AO- pattern to start February could change those odds.

AO01242017.jpg

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9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I definitely didn't think NYC had a shot at top 10 warmest January a few days ago but it looks possible now.  Still think the final 4 days could cause it to fall about a quarter to half degree short. 

What do we need to do in order to actually have a warmer met winter than we had last year?  Didn't think we could do it with the crazy December from last winter but at this rate who knows.  This January has certainly been warmer than last January was.

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

if you believe the EPS weeklies, then they have below normal temps for the whole month of Feb...We'll see....

These mid to long range forecasts are literally all over the map- both EPS and CFS.  I remember reading (I think it was something you wrote) that the CFS doesn't become accurate until near the end of the month before the month they are forecasting for?  If so, the CFS should be getting into its range for February in a few days lol.

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17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

if you believe the EPS weeklies, then they have below normal temps for the whole month of Feb...We'll see....

 

I went below normal from the 28th thru the 15th , I don't want to go past that because its just too far .

I like the vortex sitting in C Canada helping produce  SWFE s .The gradient looks good at this distance. 

There is plenty of time to look at the last 2 weeks but I think the vortex beats the ridge this time during the first 2 weeks and that will be a first since December. 

 

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1 hour ago, Paragon said:

These mid to long range forecasts are literally all over the map- both EPS and CFS.  I remember reading (I think it was something you wrote) that the CFS doesn't become accurate until near the end of the month before the month they are forecasting for?  If so, the CFS should be getting into its range for February in a few days lol.

That's the monthly forecast. It's usually accurate within a week of the month for which it is forecasting. The current version was launched operationally in October 2012 (the first one was launched around 2005), so it's possible that there will be an within the next few years, perhaps even later this year.

Unfortunately, the NCEP changes page (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/) has not been updated for 2017, so I'm not fully certain. Providing a list of updates is one area in which I believe communication could be improved at no additional cost, as it's very likely that updates are agreed in advance. A page that lists planned updates would be useful for the community.

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45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

One of the longer January 40 degree streaks for LGA continues as they pass the rare 10 day mark.

1-15...41

1-16...44

1-17...43

1-18...45

1-19...50

1-20...46

1-21..51

1-22..50

1-23..45

1-24..41

January 1974 had a streak of ten consecutive days way above normal to end the month...no day went below freezing and most of them were in the 50's and 60's for highs...

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15 minutes ago, uncle W said:

January 1974 had a streak of ten consecutive days way above normal to end the month...no day went below freezing and most of them were in the 50's and 60's for highs...

LGA did 13 days in January 2013 and 11 in January 2002. The 2002 streak went into early February beyond the January 11 days.

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Ensembles hinting that the earlier discussed SWFE should come in around February 5th just beyond day 10. Snow potential

seems to really like the weekends this winter like Dec 17th and January 7th.

 

eps_mslpa_noram_41.png

eps_t850_noram_41.png

Thats super bowl Sunday. I hope it holds off until the night or Monday morning. As a teacher, I have had off 3 of the last 4 post super bowl Mondays. Hope the trend can continue!

 

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The ensembles (GEFS, CMC, EPS) are showing yet another repeat of the same pattern we've had all winter long, over and over again, cold for 5 days then back to an extended warmer than normal period again right after. DT just pointed this out on twitter:  https://mobile.twitter.com/DTVaWeatherman/status/824342583275098112

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