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January 2017 Discussion & Observations

dmillz25

By dmillz25,
in New York City Metro

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Encouraging to see the gefs bring the pv lobe into Hudson Bay at the end of the run

 

With the positive height anomalies in the vicinity of the Aleutians still retrograding, there is a risk that the Southeast ridge is dented temporarily by the strengthening of the PV. Should the PV retrograde, the Southeast ridge could rebuild. I remain concerned that after the end of the first week in February, snowfall opportunities will diminish for a time. Hopefully, we'll cash in before then.

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

With the positive height anomalies in the vicinity of the Aleutians still retrograding, there is a risk that the Southeast ridge is dented temporarily by the strengthening of the PV. Should the PV retrograde, the Southeast ridge could rebuild. I remain concerned that after the end of the first week in February, snowfall opportunities will diminish for a time. Hopefully, we'll cash in before then.

Yeah it's all going to depend on what happens with the pv lobe after displacement. If its the correct position it can help beat down the southeast ridge. I'm more referring to after we loose the Pna. Perhaps we can get a front end dump before rain. 

 

Im not to high on snow chances the first week of February. To me the trough is to Far East and the flow is to fast. Looks mainly cold dry 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah it's all going to depend on what happens with the pv lobe after displacement. If its the correct position it can help beat down the southeast ridge. I'm more referring to after we loose the Pna. Perhaps we can get a front end dump before rain. 

 

Im not to high on snow chances the first week of February. To me the trough is to Far East and the flow is to fast. Looks mainly cold dry 

Like you, I'm not expecting much during the first week of February. I'm concerned that the pattern could become even more hostile during the second week, but that's still sufficiently far out for things to change.

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Like you, I'm not expecting much during the first week of February. I'm concerned that the pattern could become even more hostile during the second week, but that's still sufficiently far out for things to change.

Yep. Southeast ridge can give us tons of issues and it could just be December all over again. Looks like the Midwest will have a snowy month

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

The key will be achieving sufficient height rises across the pole which, consequently would force the TPV further south and thus the baroclinic zone. The second week of February is the period I am cautiously optimistic about (producing "something", possibly in the form of a SWFE as I mentioned yesterday's post). It will be a close call because the pattern clearly favors the interior. I am slightly more inclined to believe Arctic height rises on model data this time around due to the much weaker stratospheric vortex. Not a real negative -NAO/AO pattern but closer to neutral would at least permit some opportunity, with a concurrent poleward ridge.

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

The key will be achieving sufficient height rises across the pole which, consequently would force the TPV further south and thus the baroclinic zone. The second week of February is the period I am cautiously optimistic about (producing "something", possibly in the form of a SWFE as I mentioned yesterday's post). It will be a close call because the pattern clearly favors the interior. I am slightly more inclined to believe Arctic height rises on model data this time around due to the much weaker stratospheric vortex. Not a real negative -NAO/AO pattern but closer to neutral would at least permit some opportunity, with a concurrent poleward ridge.

You have been great this winter. I honestly like the 2nd of week of February for some type of front end storm. Anything before that will be moisture starved. As Don S said the southeast ridge is going to give us issues 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

Earlier today, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.355. Today was the 46th day this meteorological winter that the AO was positive. That means at least 51% of the AO values this winter will be positive, making winter 2016-17 the fourth consecutive winter during which the dominant phase of the AO was positive. For the winter, the AO is averaging +1.317. It is forecast to rise sharply in coming days. That development could lead to the AO’s becoming the dominant influence on the February 1-15 synoptic pattern.

The breakdown of AO values for the December 1-January 22 period is below:
 

AO01222017charts.jpg

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

todays ao/nao/pna forecast is better than yesterdays...a couple of members on the ao forecast chart dive to low levels...the nao is also better and the pna wants to hang in the positive category...every time the ao was forecast to go negative it never materialized...so far a stopped clock is doing better...

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WEATHERBUFF

WEATHERBUFF

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

With the positive height anomalies in the vicinity of the Aleutians still retrograding, there is a risk that the Southeast ridge is dented temporarily by the strengthening of the PV. Should the PV retrograde, the Southeast ridge could rebuild. I remain concerned that after the end of the first week in February, snowfall opportunities will diminish for a time. Hopefully, we'll cash in before then.

Yes for the coast it will.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

winter must strike back with a vengeance if the average temperature is at least normal...since 1870 the winter average temperature is around 33.5...since 1980 it's around 35.5...Last year was the second warmest winter on record but is the only one on this list with a major snowstorm and a below zero day...so far this winter the biggest snowfall is 5.1"...6" every other place...the average temperature is near 38.0 so far and rising...February must average at least 33.0 to make the winter on par with the 1980-2009 average...it must be 29.0 to make this winter on par with the long term average...At this point in time I'm thinking February ends up near 36.0 making this winter one of the warmest...I'm hoping March could be the savior this year...

...this is a list of the 29 warmest winters in NYC...1948-49 has the most snowfall...8 of the 29 winters had a snowstorm 10" or more...14 of 29 had at least a 6" storm...5 of 29 had less than 10" for the season...all these winters averaged 36.5 or higher for NYC for the Dec-Feb. period...

winter.....ave temp...min temp...30 day snow...total snow...4" snows or largest snow...

1879-80....38.5............7......................................22.7"

1889-90....37.9............7...............17.0"...............24.3"..........6.0".....6.0".....4.0"

1897-98....36.5............8.................8.9"...............21.1"..........5.0"

1905-06....36.7............7...............11.5"...............20.0"..........6.0".....6.5".....5.0"

1908-09....36.7............5...............11.4"...............20.3"..........5.1".....4.0"

1912-13....37.2..........11...............11.5"...............15.3"........11.4"

1918-19....36.6..........10.................2.7"................3.8"..........1.4"

1931-32....40.1..........15.................2.1"................5.3"...........2.0"

1932-33....37.8..........11...............15.4"...............27.0"..........7.2"...10.0"

1936-37....37.9..........13.................8.8"...............15.6"..........5.7"

1948-49....38.5..........10...............26.8"...............46.6"..........5.3"...16.0".....4.5".....4.6".....9.4"

1949-50....37.5............6.................8.9"...............13.8"..........3.8"

1951-52....37.0............8.................8.6"...............19.7"..........5.8".....4.0"

1952-53....38.1..........12.................7.5"...............15.1"..........4.5"

1953-54....37.4............7...............12.7"...............15.8"..........8.6"

1974-75....37.5..........15...............11.3"...............13.1"..........7.8"

1982-83....37.9..........12...............23.4"...............27.2"........17.6"

1990-91....39.2..........10...............15.6"...............24.9"..........7.2".....5.7".....8.9"

1991-92....37.2..........11.................9.4"...............12.6"..........6.2"

1994-95....37.1............6...............11.6"...............11.8"........10.8"

1996-97....37.8............4.................6.1"...............10.0"..........3.5"

1997-98....39.6..........14.................5.0".................5.5"..........5.0"

1998-99....38.7............9.................6.5"...............12.7"..........4.5"

2001-02....41.5..........19.................3.5".................3.5"..........3.0"

2005-06....37.3..........14...............28.9"...............40.0"..........5.8"...26.9"

2006-07....36.5............8.................7.8"...............12.4"..........5.5"

2011-12....40.5..........13..................4.5"................7.4"..........4.3"

2012-13....36.9..........11...............13.7"...............26.1"........11.4".....4.0"

2015-16....41.0...........-1...............31.9"...............32.8"........27.5"

2016-17....38.0..........14.................9.7"..............10.1"..........5.1" as of 1/22/17

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

Yes for the coast it will.

If an EPO-/PNA-/AO+ pattern develops (and we'll have a much better idea by the middle of this week), even cities such as Scranton would see a modest reduction in the frequency of measurable snowfall days relative to climatology for the February 1-15 period.

 

Scranton01232017.jpg

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WEATHERBUFF

WEATHERBUFF

Posted
Posted
Just now, donsutherland1 said:

If an EPO-/PNA-/AO+ pattern develops (and we'll have a much better idea by the middle of this week), even cities such as Scranton would see a modest reduction in the frequency of measurable snowfall days relative to climatology for the February 1-15 period.

 

Scranton01232017.jpg

I'm talking about north of there with more elevation. This year it seems like the AVP area is much behind the rest of northeast pa in terms of snowfall.

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winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Next storm to track around Feb 1?

GFS and GGEM are now showing some snow for southern Jersey next Monday. That's January 30th. Potential coastal storm and inverted trough feature. Long way to go, but with a consistent cold pattern starting late week you'd figure the models would pick up on something eventually. Glad the models are hinting that we have something to watch. 

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

Don and Uncle, thanks for your great work and commitment to researching teleconnections and weather history. It is much appreciated.

It is interesting how the last two winters have been record warm yet still featured significant snowfall. As Bluewave said, we are taking advantage of short favorable windows with moderate to major snowfalls like 1/23/16 blizzard and 1/12/17 6-8" event.

March may be the only month with any real -AO blocking.

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