January 2017 Discussion & Observations

[penndotguy]

Mt.Pocono in the 50's while I'm stuck at 44. must be seeing the sun up there

[Paragon]

16 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

Thanks Don. I think we may have a better opportunity rolling the dice with a southwest flow event as geopotential heights decrease in the West and the baroclinic zone lifts northward. The progged orientation of the PNA ridge in the 1/26-2/2 period is not conducive for tucked in coastal storms. We need it more Meridional and less SW-NE oriented, the latter of which tends to suppress / force short waves offshore. I'm not too optimistic about the 1/26-2/1 period. The gradient regime may give us a better shot, but I'm also worried about our area being too far south w/ SE Ridge issues in February.

I wonder if the January 8th event will turn out to be the biggest of the season?  Not too shabby, 7-9 inches of snow.

[nesussxwx]

9 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

Mt.Pocono in the 50's while I'm stuck at 44. must be seeing the sun up there

Soaked in clouds practically all day here, with a few peeks of sun Those to the N have had higher temperatures. Currently 45F.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The QBO is different now from those previous events.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

It's a La Nina with an anomalously wet pattern twist for places like Northern California. The very strong ridge near the Aleutians has displaced the

fire house jet further south. 

I think the firehose aimed at California is the result of the unique Modoki or Central Pacific La Niña. If you look at region 1+2, it's been extremely warm, approaching El Niño levels for months now while region 3.4 has been at La Niña levels. The warmth in region 1+2 actually simulates an east-based El Niño by changing and moving the Walker cell. This explains the Niño like pattern in California with the juiced jet pounding them with storms. 

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think the firehose aimed at California is the result of the unique Modoki or Central Pacific La Niña. If you look at region 1+2, it's been extremely warm, approaching El Niño levels for months now while region 3.4 has been at La Niña levels. The warmth in region 1+2 actually simulates an east-based El Niño by changing and moving the Walker cell. This explains the Niño like pattern in California with the juiced jet pounding them with storms. 

It's more northern branch like you would see with a La Nina instead of a strong STJ El Nino signature. Notice how the jet is bending under the -PNA trough

downstream from the strong Aleutian blocking pattern. The STJ is also much weaker than normal like you would expect during a La Nina.

 

[nzucker]

4 hours ago, Isotherm said:

IMO the Aleutian ridging hasn't been particularly impressive / poleward in the means thus far. There have been sufficient low geopotential heights intervals to counteract the signal. True poleward ridging winters should have been colder to date in terms of the temperature departures.

I think it's been in between years with more poleward blocks like 10-11 and those with really flat Aleutian ridges like 98-99/99-00.

Despite the 10.1" of snow at Central Park, I'd consider this a poor to very poor winter. The mid December snow event melted in 4 hours, and the 1/9 event only lasted 2 days. 

We never realized the major January pattern change. After a +2 to +3 December, many thought January would be a little colder. We ended up with a +6 anomaly instead. The Jan 5-20 period produced one moderate snowfall event, two coatings, and no snowpack. The last week has only had 1 night below freezing here, and the low was 30F. The high today in the Bronx was 51F...it's been 45-55F highs for most of this past week.

I get a little sad at this point because we have lost two of our winter months. Even if we have a good February (and that is increasingly on the ropes as models want to go -PNA again), snow cover is harder to maintain after 2/15 and the increasing daylight diminishes the winter atmosphere. I also expect Feb 2017 to be similar to Feb 2011, around +2F for temps with one moderate snowfall (had 8" around 2/20 that month), and much better in New England. The -EPO/-PNA pattern is better far north, and the SE ridge has been incredibly strong this year.

Discouraging.

[Isotherm]

13 minutes ago, nzucker said:

I think it's been in between years with more poleward blocks like 10-11 and those with really flat Aleutian ridges like 98-99/99-00.

Despite the 10.1" of snow at Central Park, I'd consider this a poor to very poor winter. The mid December snow event melted in 4 hours, and the 1/9 event only lasted 2 days. 

We never realized the major January pattern change. After a +2 to +3 December, many thought January would be a little colder. We ended up with a +6 anomaly instead. The Jan 5-20 period produced one moderate snowfall event, two coatings, and no snowpack. The last week has only had 1 night below freezing here, and the low was 30F. The high today in the Bronx was 51F...it's been 45-55F highs for most of this past week.

I get a little sad at this point because we have lost two of our winter months. Even if we have a good February (and that is increasingly on the ropes as models want to go -PNA again), snow cover is harder to maintain after 2/15 and the increasing daylight diminishes the winter atmosphere. I also expect Feb 2017 to be similar to Feb 2011, around +2F for temps with one moderate snowfall (had 8" around 2/20 that month), and much better in New England. The -EPO/-PNA pattern is better far north, and the SE ridge has been incredibly strong this year.

Discouraging.

 

Those are my expectations as well, I agree. Should be another warmer than normal month. Snowfall is tougher to predict but I suppose near normal is once again possible for NYC if the gradient can occasionally be forced sufficiently south. December pattern w/ Feb climo; -PNA/-EPO in the means favoring New England. Looks potentially "ok" at times, especially north of NYC. I can't complain so far from a forecast standpoint, but even so, it's difficult seeing winter go down the tubes like you said. I'm with you in that I prefer to utilize the Dec 1st-Feb 10th period when the sun angle is lower as the atmosphere feels more wintry and snowpack retention is superior. We may end up achieving our most blocky pattern in March this year, but frankly, it doesn't feel like winter to me after February's over. January has been an unmitigated furnace; there's no sugar coating it.

I can't wait until we return the more conducive cycle for early winter -AO/NAO patterns.                               

[nzucker]

5 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

Those are my expectations as well, I agree. Should be another warmer than normal month. Snowfall is tougher to predict but I suppose near normal is once again possible for NYC if the gradient can occasionally be forced sufficiently south. December pattern w/ Feb climo; -PNA/-EPO in the means favoring New England. Looks potentially "ok" at times, especially north of NYC. I can't complain so far from a forecast standpoint, but even so, it's difficult seeing winter go down the tubes like you said. I'm with you in that I prefer to utilize the Dec 1st-Feb 10th period when the sun angle is lower as the atmosphere feels more wintry and snowpack retention is superior. We may end up achieving our most blocky pattern in March this year, but frankly, it doesn't feel like winter to me after February's over. January has been an unmitigated furnace; there's no sugar coating it.

I can't wait until we return the more conducive cycle for early winter -AO/NAO patterns.                               

I think the forecasting this winter has been fairly easy though given a weak La Nina you'd expect a slightly colder cast. You have done a good job sticking to the base state and not getting excited about the late Oct SSW/PV disruption or the January "pattern change" that PB was heralding. Lots of caution flags this winter: low ozone, poor NAO/AO cycle, PV in Siberia, incoherent MJO, low solar/+QBO combination, high global temperatures (though dropping). 

I do think we will see two windows of opportunity: Jan 27-Feb 3 with the MJO induced PNA spike and late Feb-early Mar as the La Nina fades with -NAO/-AO possibly returning. Those windows can bring us to near normal snowfall...but the way we got there is more like 1971-72 (analog) slop storms than 08-09 cold and moderate events.

I do think you and I agreed that 17-18 and 19-20/20-21 hold more promise for winter lovers than this season. We should have a weak +ENSO next winter, and then solar bottoms out around 2020 with the AMO also going negative. Low solar/-AMO produces some of our best winters like the 1960s. We kind of knew 16-17 was a winter we'd just have to "get through."

[Rjay]

Some pretty dense fog here 

[dmillz25]

Very foggy omw back to the city from Marlboro, NY

[Isotherm]

41 minutes ago, nzucker said:

I think the forecasting this winter has been fairly easy though given a weak La Nina you'd expect a slightly colder cast. You have done a good job sticking to the base state and not getting excited about the late Oct SSW/PV disruption or the January "pattern change" that PB was heralding. Lots of caution flags this winter: low ozone, poor NAO/AO cycle, PV in Siberia, incoherent MJO, low solar/+QBO combination, high global temperatures (though dropping). 

I do think we will see two windows of opportunity: Jan 27-Feb 3 with the MJO induced PNA spike and late Feb-early Mar as the La Nina fades with -NAO/-AO possibly returning. Those windows can bring us to near normal snowfall...but the way we got there is more like 1971-72 (analog) slop storms than 08-09 cold and moderate events.

I do think you and I agreed that 17-18 and 19-20/20-21 hold more promise for winter lovers than this season. We should have a weak +ENSO next winter, and then solar bottoms out around 2020 with the AMO also going negative. Low solar/-AMO produces some of our best winters like the 1960s. We kind of knew 16-17 was a winter we'd just have to "get through."

 

 

Often times a wave-2 will follow the wave-1, so I'm watching mid/late Feb for the possibility of some improvement with the northern annular mode. I agree with the possibility of the late winter window. And thanks, winter isn't over yet, though it is looking more likely that earlier model indications of a very cold beginning of February will not be reflective of the entire month's pattern. Those that went colder than normal for DJF (and it seemed to be most from what I saw) should be concerned at this point I think; February was their hope to erase the positives of Dec/Jan, but we're losing the PNA in the longer term which certainly implies more cold for the West.

I like the trend in the overall base state going toward next winter, but as usual we will need to monitor the intraseasonal oscillations which could still destructively interfere with some of the more conducive signals.

[donsutherland1]

My confidence in the idea that the February 1-15 period will be dominated by an EPO-/PNA-/AO+ pattern has continued to increase. Unlike with recent past winters, the AO+ will likely exert the dominant influence on the hemispheric pattern and, in part, that dominant influence will lead to the retrogression of the EPO-PNA ridge, leading to a PNA-. Such an outcome appears increasingly likely for the first half of February despite a PDO+ and fading La Niña. 

Based on the latest data, particularly the growing probability of a negative PNA state in early to middle February, it appears that the February 1-15, 1989 and February 1-15, 1959 500 mb patterns best reflect what is being forecast toward the end of the ensembles’ range. That means that the window of opportunity for snowfall could slam shut after perhaps the end of the first week of February for much of the northern Mid-Atlantic region, including New York City and Philadelphia.

For now, it remains somewhat uncertain as to whether the 1959-1989 patterns, should they develop, will hold for most or all of February. If they do, the month could see very little snowfall.

Snowfall amounts for select cities for February 1959 and February 1989 were as follows:

February 1959:
Baltimore: Trace
Boston: 10.7”
New York City: 0.4”
Newark: 1.0”
Philadelphia: Trace
Washington, DC: Trace

February 1989:
Baltimore: 1.1”
Boston: 6.7”
New York City: 0.3”
Newark: 0.6”
Philadelphia: 2.4”
Washington, DC: 1.2”

In addition, through today, 87% of the AO values this meteorological winter have been positive. There remains a possibility that winter 2016-17 will become the fourth since 1950-51 to register AO+ values on 80% or more days of meteorological winter. Winter 2016-17 is all but certain to register AO+ values on more than 50% of the dates for the fourth consecutive winter. 

Dominant AO State:
2013-14 Positive: 58% dates
2014-15 Positive: 76% dates
2015-16 Positive: 53% dates
2016-17 Positive (all but certain)

The last winter to register a majority of AO- values was winter 2012-13 when 83.3% of dates saw AO- figures. For what it’s worth, both 1959 and 1989 saw no AO- values in February.

Finally, the distribution of temperature anomalies on the 1/21/2017 0z CFSv2, which is now moving onto the cusp of its skillful range, are fairly similar to the composite February anomalies from the 2/1-15/1950-2016 cases that saw an EPO-/PNA-/AO+ pattern. 

By the middle of next week, we’ll see whether the growing share of guidance pointing to a more strongly positive AO that overwhelms the pattern and a PNA- continues to be supported. For now, it appears that the early promise of a snowy February is fading. At the same time, it still appears that a milder than normal February (though colder relative to normal than January) are somewhat more likely than not. Those odds could increase depending on the evolution of the pattern.

Charts for the most recent PNA forecasts and February temperature anomalies follow. 

[uncle W]

this winter has averaged 38.3 in December in Central Park...and over 37.0 in January so far...It probably will end up near 38.0 which is well above average...February would have to average below 32.0 for the winter to end up near average...1974 averaged 31.7 in Feb...1993 averaged 30.8 in February...we would need a February like those years...I doubt it will get colder than the years I mentioned...It could end up like 1960 and average 36.3...That would put this winter in the top 30 warmest winters on record...maybe top 25...

[nzucker]

2 hours ago, Isotherm said:

Often times a wave-2 will follow the wave-1, so I'm watching mid/late Feb for the possibility of some improvement with the northern annular mode. I agree with the possibility of the late winter window. And thanks, winter isn't over yet, though it is looking more likely that earlier model indications of a very cold beginning of February will not be reflective of the entire month's pattern. Those that went colder than normal for DJF (and it seemed to be most from what I saw) should be concerned at this point I think; February was their hope to erase the positives of Dec/Jan, but we're losing the PNA in the longer term which certainly implies more cold for the West.

I like the trend in the overall base state going toward next winter, but as usual we will need to monitor the intraseasonal oscillations which could still destructively interfere with some of the more conducive signals.

I think the idea of the most negative AO and NAO readings coming in late Feb-early Mar is a good one given the possibility for a warming stratosphere. Can you explain what you mean by Wave 1 and Wave 2 responses?

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

this winter has averaged 38.3 in December in Central Park...and over 37.0 in January so far...It probably will end up near 38.0 which is well above average...February would have to average below 32.0 for the winter to end up near average...1974 averaged 31.7 in Feb...1993 averaged 30.8 in February...we would need a February like those years...I doubt it will get colder than the years I mentioned...It could end up like 1960 and average 36.3...That would put this winter in the top 30 warmest winters on record...maybe top 25...

It would be almost impossible for Winter 16-17 to finish below normal. Dec was +2 and Jan will finish near +6...that means we'd have to see a -8F February departure just to get to average. Given the expected +AO/+NAO/-PNA regime, that is improbable. 1974 had a much colder base climate and more favorable teleconnections. 

To me this has been one of the warmest winters I've experienced though nowhere near the least snowy. Winter 16-17 and the string of above freezing nights in mid January, added to the +12 December we saw in 2015, argues for a shift to a much warmer winter climate. In 50 years, all winters may be more like this. 

If we really torch in February with a strong -PNA and burgeoning SE ridge, we may make a run at a Top 10 warmest winter. The one thing that makes it less likely is that December had a much smaller anomaly due to the mid-month cold spell. The PV moving into Maine and associated cold spell around 12/17 has been the only significant cold shot of this winter. The coldest days in January between 1/5-1/10 were relatively unimpressive.

[Paragon]

1 hour ago, nzucker said:

I think the idea of the most negative AO and NAO readings coming in late Feb-early Mar is a good one given the possibility for a warming stratosphere. Can you explain what you mean by Wave 1 and Wave 2 responses?

It would be almost impossible for Winter 16-17 to finish below normal. Dec was +2 and Jan will finish near +6...that means we'd have to see a -8F February departure just to get to average. Given the expected +AO/+NAO/-PNA regime, that is improbable. 1974 had a much colder base climate and more favorable teleconnections. 

To me this has been one of the warmest winters I've experienced though nowhere near the least snowy. Winter 16-17 and the string of above freezing nights in mid January, added to the +12 December we saw in 2015, argues for a shift to a much warmer winter climate. In 50 years, all winters may be more like this. 

If we really torch in February with a strong -PNA and burgeoning SE ridge, we may make a run at a Top 10 warmest winter. The one thing that makes it less likely is that December had a much smaller anomaly due to the mid-month cold spell. The PV moving into Maine and associated cold spell around 12/17 has been the only significant cold shot of this winter. The coldest days in January between 1/5-1/10 were relatively unimpressive.

I don't think you'll have to wait 50 years for most winters to be like this- give it 30 years tops.

What I am wondering is when will we reach a point where all indices will become meaningless as far as sustained cold is concerned?  They will still hold meaning for snowfall, I think, since that requires only short bouts of cold weather, but by the time you referenced we'll reach a point when above normal temperatures will be more likely than not regardless of index values (and that includes ENSO and NAO/AO.)

 

[CIK62]

Next 8 days, including today should be a slightly tamer +10.5degs.  Figure on a positive surplus of 189 degrees or +6.5degs. by the morning of the 30th.  If last two days of Jan. are normal we will end at +6.1degs., or just out of top ten, I believe.

[bluewave]

All local stations are in the top 15 warmest Januaries through 1/21.

NYC...37.4....+5.0...#15

LGA...39.0....+5.8...#6

JFK....37.8....+5.2...#8

BDR...35.7....+5.5...#7

EWR...36.9...+5.4....#12

[PB GFI]

 

Both the EPS and GFS ensembles now beat the S/E ridge back by day 15 . So its strenght is short lived .

As both the10 mb and 50 mb levels warm in Central Canada low level cold develops right underneath it .

This time unlike in Dec and Jan where the ridge popped and stayed its more of a weaker feature as it gets pressed on .

Canada becomes frigid and it is presses HP through the lakes . You can see that on the surface map and its result at 500.

The longer range pattern has a colder gradient look to it so the first half of February looks favorable.

 

As far as the shorter duration Jan 5 - 10 cold period here in Colts Neck we saw lows close to 0 for 2 nights with a 9 inch snowstorm.  

That storm was seen a week out and not agreed on by many .

Luckily for us this winter 10 to 15 inches of snow has already  fallen from EWR east . So if some of you are disappointed at the half way point this year you clearly weren't around in the 80s .

So as bad as the temp pattern has been this year there is still a chance we finish with AN snow .

We don't live in a cold / snowy climate . I have seen some crap winters during the 80s and I know what disaster winters , this is another warm winter in the long list of warm winters but we have snowed more than we should have .

 

 

[PB GFI]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like it will be modulated by the ability of the ridge to press near Alaska and maintain a gradient pattern with cold in Canada and northern Tier.

A good sign is that none of the ensembles are moving to the giant +EPO vortex which really put January over the top in warmth.

 

The GFS ensembles are the most bullish in the - EPO return .

I would like to see the EPS steepen the backside of its curve and really join in .

I agree Canada becomes frigid and thats going to press into the pattern.

 

[PB GFI]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the EPS look like we cool down for the first few days of February before a rebound milder near day 15. Beyond that time frame, we need a more easterly

position of the Aleutian ridge to push us back on the colder side of the gradient again. The weeklies tomorrow should provide some hints.

 

I think it will show a deepening trough in the lakes after day 15.

[CoastalWx]

A lot of the warmth is just the pattern we are in. It would have been warm 100 yrs ago.  -PNA and GOAK troughs are not kind to the east coast. Regression can suck.

[Redmorninglight]

If we are likely to have a Nina next winter as history has shown, should we hope for east based vs the current modoki?

also of the listed super ninos, hasn't this current regime paralleled the 82-82 event the best? If so, maybe next January will be brutal cold like 85. 

[Allsnow]

The trough is to Far East for the first week of February so we probably won't have a opportunity for something then. The EPS is bone dry out to day 15. Isotherms is probably correct in saying our best chance in the 2nd week of February in a swfe 

[Allsnow]

12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

My confidence in the idea that the February 1-15 period will be dominated by an EPO-/PNA-/AO+ pattern has continued to increase. Unlike with recent past winters, the AO+ will likely exert the dominant influence on the hemispheric pattern and, in part, that dominant influence will lead to the retrogression of the EPO-PNA ridge, leading to a PNA-. Such an outcome appears increasingly likely for the first half of February despite a PDO+ and fading La Niña. 

Based on the latest data, particularly the growing probability of a negative PNA state in early to middle February, it appears that the February 1-15, 1989 and February 1-15, 1959 500 mb patterns best reflect what is being forecast toward the end of the ensembles’ range. That means that the window of opportunity for snowfall could slam shut after perhaps the end of the first week of February for much of the northern Mid-Atlantic region, including New York City and Philadelphia.

For now, it remains somewhat uncertain as to whether the 1959-1989 patterns, should they develop, will hold for most or all of February. If they do, the month could see very little snowfall.

Snowfall amounts for select cities for February 1959 and February 1989 were as follows:

February 1959:
Baltimore: Trace
Boston: 10.7”
New York City: 0.4”
Newark: 1.0”
Philadelphia: Trace
Washington, DC: Trace

February 1989:
Baltimore: 1.1”
Boston: 6.7”
New York City: 0.3”
Newark: 0.6”
Philadelphia: 2.4”
Washington, DC: 1.2”

In addition, through today, 87% of the AO values this meteorological winter have been positive. There remains a possibility that winter 2016-17 will become the fourth since 1950-51 to register AO+ values on 80% or more days of meteorological winter. Winter 2016-17 is all but certain to register AO+ values on more than 50% of the dates for the fourth consecutive winter. 

Dominant AO State:
2013-14 Positive: 58% dates
2014-15 Positive: 76% dates
2015-16 Positive: 53% dates
2016-17 Positive (all but certain)

The last winter to register a majority of AO- values was winter 2012-13 when 83.3% of dates saw AO- figures. For what it’s worth, both 1959 and 1989 saw no AO- values in February.

Finally, the distribution of temperature anomalies on the 1/21/2017 0z CFSv2, which is now moving onto the cusp of its skillful range, are fairly similar to the composite February anomalies from the 2/1-15/1950-2016 cases that saw an EPO-/PNA-/AO+ pattern. 

By the middle of next week, we’ll see whether the growing share of guidance pointing to a more strongly positive AO that overwhelms the pattern and a PNA- continues to be supported. For now, it appears that the early promise of a snowy February is fading. At the same time, it still appears that a milder than normal February (though colder relative to normal than January) are somewhat more likely than not. Those odds could increase depending on the evolution of the pattern.

Charts for the most recent PNA forecasts and February temperature anomalies follow. 

 

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, Redmorninglight said:

If we are likely to have a Nina next winter as history has shown, should we hope for east based vs the current modoki?

also of the listed super ninos, hasn't this current regime paralleled the 82-82 event the best? If so, maybe next January will be brutal cold like 85. 

I think it's remote at this point we have a La Niña.  The ENSO models are overwhelming in favor of an El Niño and some showing one over 1.0 

[PB GFI]

By day 15 16 that SE  ridge pressed away  . In Dec and Jan when we saw those heights build days 12 and 13 they just continued to balloon up the coast through the rest of the period .

The SE ridge looks transient at 6z , lets see if thats the theme over the next few days .

[Redmorninglight]

Thanks SG69 for the answer. Another nino would really keep the global temp record rolling. 

I'm really hoping for at least climo snow for Feb since we sponsor several ski trips through our school. Last year was rough. We actually cancelled today's due to rain. I grew up in the 80s and this pattern stinks of it. Lots of skiing in rain jackets instead of parkas. 

[weatherpruf]

9 hours ago, Paragon said:

I don't think you'll have to wait 50 years for most winters to be like this- give it 30 years tops.

What I am wondering is when will we reach a point where all indices will become meaningless as far as sustained cold is concerned?  They will still hold meaning for snowfall, I think, since that requires only short bouts of cold weather, but by the time you referenced we'll reach a point when above normal temperatures will be more likely than not regardless of index values (and that includes ENSO and NAO/AO.)

 

Well you raise some fascinating points. Scientists say winter as a season  is not going anywhere, but things will be getting warmer. And each year has been getting warmer. I expect we will see some colder winters mixed in, but they are already generally warmer than I ever remembered as a kid. I'm 54.

[bkviking]

Massive fog bank and wind shift came in Port Jefferson . Temps dropped 50 to 42 pretty quick. 

[donsutherland1]

18 minutes ago, bkviking said:

Massive fog bank and wind shift came in Port Jefferson . Temps dropped 50 to 42 pretty quick. 

Great shot.