January 2017 Discussion & Observations

[PB GFI]

50 s between Jan 17 - Jan 26 . In case anyone wants to know when the real day time  positive anomalies return . 

After  Jan 27 / bye and get ready for winter . 

[PB GFI]

Moving on 

NEXT

 

[PB GFI]

In case there is any doubt about what is coming 

 

[PB GFI]

8 - 1- 2 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BxEngine]

Please take the bickering to PMs, everyone made their points. If you want to keep arguing semantics, find somewhere else to do it, please. Enough with the nitpicking.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Please don't forget we have a model thread for long range storm discussion

[Stormlover74]

Decent downpours moving through now

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

I'll gladly sacrifice 1 snowstorm for a good 3-5" rain event 

No way, a massive cutter with rain to the Canadian border will kill what had been a decent ski season. That same storm if it is off the coast with stale cold here will still be snow up in mountains. Pretty much the only way to get it to rain this time of year above 2,500' is with a powerful cutter. Perfect example is today. While we rain it's ripping snow in the mountains of southern Vermont 

[weathermedic]

0.44 in the rain bucket so far at my station.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

.48" so far and 33F

[mimillman]

4 hours ago, PB GFI said:

In case there is any doubt about what is coming 

 

I'd prefer to see some semblance of blocking over Greenland, which none of the models show. It's been lacking virtually all winter.

[Squid1225]

sitting at 32.4 with 0.27 of rain so far today

[Rtd208]

Have picked up 0.62" of rain so far today. Current temp 40

[tdp146]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

No way, a massive cutter with rain to the Canadian border will kill what had been a decent ski season. That same storm if it is off the coast with stale cold here will still be snow up in mountains. Pretty much the only way to get it to rain this time of year above 2,500' is with a powerful cutter. Perfect example is today. While we rain it's ripping snow in the mountains of southern Vermont 

Heading to killington with a group of 8 the 26th-29th. Not so optimistic right now. 

[JerseyWx]

Only .20" today.  Early next week looks like a real soaker.

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

No way, a massive cutter with rain to the Canadian border will kill what had been a decent ski season. That same storm if it is off the coast with stale cold here will still be snow up in mountains. Pretty much the only way to get it to rain this time of year above 2,500' is with a powerful cutter. Perfect example is today. While we rain it's ripping snow in the mountains of southern Vermont 

I'm not sure you'll see a powerful cutter.  We have not had many of those this year so there's that, plus there's no cold air anywhere in North American through next week, so there would really be a temp gradient to work with to bomb it out.

[PB GFI]

On 1/17/2017 at 8:11 PM, mimillman said:

I'd prefer to see some semblance of blocking over Greenland, which none of the models show. It's been lacking virtually all winter.

 

As of right now I  think the best we can muster is a transient feature .

I am not a fan of the Atlantic. I still think the Pacific along with the Arctic drive the pattern 

 

I think theres a series of very cold air masses that rotate in Feb 1 thru 15 and SWs will eject underneath .

The first 15 days of February could be cold and snowy.

#s ? For the month I like 18 inches of snow at KNYC and temps 1 thru 15  I like  1 below .

Will have to look at the 15 thru 28 in about 10 days .

If blocking shows up so could a KU but thats far off in the LR.

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, PB GFI said:

Moving on 

NEXT

 

 

Cluster 2 would be almost a textbook case where an EPO-/PNA+ overwhelms the impact of an AO+ on the 500 mb pattern (except that the cluster shows positive height anomalies across Greenland).

[bluewave]

We are heading into one of the longest 40 degree high streaks for January that LGA has seen.

All the models agree on this streak continuing well into next week. The current 42 makes it 4 days so far.

1-15....41...+4

1-16....44...+5

1-17...43....+8

37.8....+4.5 for January so far

[bigtenfan]

I know that stat wise it goes into the record books the same way but  an overnight low of 45 just does feel as torchy as a daytime high of 60.

[PB GFI]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are heading into one of the longest 40 degree high streaks for January that LGA has seen.

All the models agree on this streak continuing well into next week. The current 42 makes it 4 days so far.

1-15....41...+4

1-16....44...+5

1-17...43....+8

37.8....+4.5 for January so far

 

I think the more impressive streak may be the  possible stretch of 50 plus starting tomorrow , when the NE and E wind component from the -NAO that helped  mute the SE ridge since Friday afternoon subsides .

 

The  KNYC the anoamlies on Monday and Tuesday were  primarily driven by the  high lows .

The 4 pm temps since Friday have been either been in the upper 30s to the very low 40s , so the day time temps have felt  cold.

So for straight 6 days it felt like late December if one was out and about .

Back on the 2nd when I saw the Euro 12 day pressure pattern I thought the 14 15 16 would break BN , it missed by 2 degrees for the period  , but at that time the 2 M anomalies were forecast to be plus 15 on the GFS .

 

Now the next 7 days starting tomorrow the day time highs really start to respond and the mid day temps will feel warmer than the last 6 .

 

After the 27th the pattern will change -EPO /+PNA will result in the trough in the SE .

Theres a chance pieces of the vortex head into the lakes during the first week of February as well .

[PB GFI]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You really have to give the people at ECMWF credit for the work that they do. Those weeklies have been signaling a shift to -EPO/+PNA 

for late January for quite a while now. The JMA folks look like a close second at times depending on the pattern.

 

I want to say it was either that late Dec or early Jan run that had it week 4 .

I know you posted on it back in early Jan . Nice call .

Now the current weeklies replicate the same pattern from late Jan until early March .

I cant buy that yet , I do like the pattern until mid month  the JMA weeklies agree but its hard to get a 45 day pattern like the weeklies think .

But if they are right ... 

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, PB GFI said:

 

I want to say it was either that late Dec or early Jan run that had it week 4 .

I know you posted on it back in early Jan . Nice call .

Now the current weeklies replicate the same pattern from late Jan until early March .

I cant buy that yet , I do like the pattern until mid month  the JMA weeklies agree but its hard to get a 45 day pattern like the weeklies think .

But if they are right ... 

Yeah, I agree. The signal for +PNA -EPO looks the strongest for the start of February. It's really tough to speculate on the pattern

for the back half of February at this point. I think much will come down to what happens after this MJO pulse concludes and how the pattern

interacts with the weakening La Nina.

[PB GFI]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I agree. The signal for +PNA -EPO looks the strongest for the first half of February. It's really tough to speculate on the pattern

for the back half of February at this point. I think much will come down to what happens after this MJO pulse concludes and how the pattern

interacts with the weakening La Nina.

 

If the MJO comes back out in 8 by day 15 and rolls back around then its a month long.

I know Tommy hasn't been a fan of a strat event this early , I like the warming by itself at 10mb by day 5 thru 15 and maybe depressing the troposphere in W  Canada it will allow HP to build under it and some very low level cold air will drive through the lakes .

I def see cross polar flow betwen the 1st thru the 10th.

I am Pacific driven so I will work the initial pulse and hope that we get another  favorable one shortly thereafter. 

[CIK62]

Next 8 days look to compete with Dec. 2015 @+14.5.   I figure a positive surplus of 177  degrees by the 26th or +7.1deg.

Also I note the CFS WEEKLIES have BN heights but AN temperatures at surface.  This must mean the SSWE vectors are not reaching the surface, in its analysis.

[PB GFI]

[psv88]

Just to dip my toes into the temp talk for a hot minute, the whole argument that it doesnt "feel" like a torch is kind of silly. We live in the northeast US and it is mid-January, it is supposed to be downright frigid. So while 45 may "feel cold", based on the climatology of our region, it is still 7-8 degrees AN for highs, which to some, may be a torch, especially combined with the high overnight lows. 

I think we can all agree that if it were 45/30 everyday in January, the month would be a torch.

Unfortunately for us, even a well AN January is still cold, aka, 40s and rain. It is above normal, but it is horrendous and downright miserable. 

[North and West of Town]

Have you seen this? Wonder if it will help.

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/weather/2017/01/16/coldest-temperatures-in-years-coming-to-southcentral-interior-alaska-this-week/

[Brian5671]

17 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Just to dip my toes into the temp talk for a hot minute, the whole argument that it doesnt "feel" like a torch is kind of silly. We live in the northeast US and it is mid-January, it is supposed to be downright frigid. So while 45 may "feel cold", based on the climatology of our region, it is still 7-8 degrees AN for highs, which to some, may be a torch, especially combined with the high overnight lows. 

I think we can all agree that if it were 45/30 everyday in January, the month would be a torch.

Unfortunately for us, even a well AN January is still cold, aka, 40s and rain. It is above normal, but it is horrendous and downright miserable. 

last few days have been miserable with 30's and low 40's and rain/raw/drizzle.    Expecting temps to exceed guidance starting tomorrow as they often do in these torch patterns.  Would not shock me to see a day or two at or above 60 before it ends.

[nyblizz44]

12 hours ago, PB GFI said:

 

As of right now I  think the best we can muster is a transient feature .

I am not a fan of the Atlantic. I still think the Pacific along with the Arctic drive the pattern 

 

I think theres a series of very cold air masses that rotate in Feb 1 thru 15 and SWs will eject underneath .

The first 15 days of February could be cold and snowy.

#s ? For the month I like 18 inches of snow at KNYC and temps 1 thru 15  I like  3 below .

Will have to look at the 15 thru 28 in about 10 days .

If blocking shows up so could a KU but thats far off in the LR.

Can you score a KU on the back of a transient block PB?