PB GFI Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squid1225 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 This winter is starting to have the feeling of...."in two weeks, pattern change" and it never happens lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, PB GFI said: Not this one . 60 degrees and rain Wind gusts to 65k on LI With feb looking good, I'll take this one to hit the deficit for sure, my wells water stinks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Not this one . 60 degrees and rain Wind gusts to 65k on LI hell it's above freezing up to Hudson's Bay! no cold air anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 3 hours ago, PB GFI said: That`s 1 C Those maps were plus 15 c Sat Sun Mon Tues . We are not talking about Friday / The forecast on the 2nd was for the 14 -15 16 - Which ended plus 1c - Those maps say plus 15c The argument was from last week the real AN starts on the 17th . No issues with the following 7 days after that 4F is not 1C. It's 2.5C actually, which is a significant anomaly. No one said that every day would be +15C, that would be absurd. It is commonly cooler here with a strong ridge to the north, even under abnormally high height fields. Getting a few days that are +4 interspersed with a sea of +10 days is hardly a victory. Nighttime lows are going to be around 40F when climo is 20-25F, huge torch. 40F lows are normal for mid April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Next week's storm if it pulls in warm air could put the !!! on a warm January especially if we have upper 50's to near 60 around midnight Mon/Tue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, nzucker said: 4F is not 1C. It's 2.5C actually, which is a significant anomaly. No one said that every day would be +15C, that would be absurd. It is commonly cooler here with a strong ridge to the north, even under abnormally high height fields. Getting a few days that are +4 interspersed with a sea of +10 days is hardly a victory. Nighttime lows are going to be around 40F when climo is 20-25F, huge torch. 40F lows are normal for mid April. 4F ? HUH ? Sat -1F Sun +1F Mon +4F = 4F DIVIDED BY 3 IS 1.33 F or 1C . 3 day avg kid , you are so obsessed here you are missing the convo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 16 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Not this one . 60 degrees and rain Wind gusts to 65k on LI That's false. We're talking about upper 30's to mid 40's tops but not that it matters cause it's a million miles away sort of speak plenty of time for this to evolve into at least a nice nor'easter that could give us a sizeable event whether it's rain or snow is still in the air, obviously rain is on the table if the king euro is showing but definitely no 60's edit: all I'm saying is we don't get 60's with this that's for sure. Obviously it may be a rain event but it's a week away so give it some time. The models are so bad that it could be partly sunny next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Just now, WeatherFeen2000 said: That's false. We're talking about upper 30's to mid 40's tops but not that it matters cause it's a million miles away sort of speak plenty of time for this to evolve into at least a nice nor'easter that could give us a sizeable event whether it's rain or snow is still in the air, obviously rain is on the table if the king euro is showing but definitely no 60's Dude I'm sorry but your thinking is way off here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: That's false. We're talking about upper 30's to mid 40's tops but not that it matters cause it's a million miles away sort of speak plenty of time for this to evolve into at least a nice nor'easter that could give us a sizeable event whether it's rain or snow is still in the air, obviously rain is on the table if the king euro is showing but definitely no 60's Euro is 50 -55 here , on on strong SE flow , that could bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Euro is 50 -55 here , on on strong SE flow , that could bust It looks closer to the cmc than the gfs but warmer than the cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It looks closer to the cmc than the gfs but warmer than the cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It looks closer to the cmc than the gfs but warmer than the cmc. I disagree, I think GFS is much closer than GGEM to euro solution, neither GFS nor EURO have the cold injection the GGEM shows, it's on its own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 20 minutes ago, PB GFI said: 4F ? HUH ? Sat -1F Sun +1F Mon +4F = 4F DIVIDED BY 3 IS 1.33 F or 1C . 3 day avg kid , you are so obsessed here you are missing the convo Pretty sure that's above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, pazzo83 said: Pretty sure that's above normal. Yes it`s a furnace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 50-60 MPG gusts for the shore and Long Island wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 50-60 MPG gusts for the shore and Long Island wow What are you talking about dude... the GFS is a cutter which I think is what's going to happen to be honest but cmc and euro show a nice low pressure if the euro has a stronger low like the cmc shows than it would make its own cold air and show some snow basic meteorology but some in here don't know that! I'm done with this for another few days when we get closer. Have a nice days guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Just now, PB GFI said: Yes it`s a furnace Take the past 7 days including today: 1/11: +14F 1/12: +25F 1/13: +15F 1/14: -1F 1/15: +2F 1/16: +5F 1/17: +8F (so far) That's a cumulative dept of +68 with a 7 day avg of +9.7F. I'd say a week of about +10 is a torch, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 50-60 MPG gusts for the shore and Long Island wow The specifics really don't matter this far out. There should be a storm around, that's all we know now. Hopefully it's not with howling SE winds like that, it would be a big coastal flood and beach erosion threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 24 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: That's false. We're talking about upper 30's to mid 40's tops but not that it matters cause it's a million miles away sort of speak plenty of time for this to evolve into at least a nice nor'easter that could give us a sizeable event whether it's rain or snow is still in the air, obviously rain is on the table if the king euro is showing but definitely no 60's We're talking temp profile not low location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 50 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euros an epic rain storm, nowhere near close for snow man: euro drops 4-5" of rain lol 6" lollies in parts of SNE This winter's been good for knocking out areas of drought at least. A big rain event would be great for the drought in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This winter's been good for knocking out areas of drought at least. A big rain event would be great for the drought in this area. I'll gladly sacrifice 1 snowstorm for a good 3-5" rain event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 36 minutes ago, nzucker said: Getting a few days that are +4 interspersed with a sea of +10 days is hardly a victory. Nighttime lows are going to be around 40F when climo is 20-25F, huge torch. 40F lows are normal for mid April. Agree. With next week's cutter (25th-26th), I think we will see widespread 60s, inland at least. Either way, Jan departures should be at least +5 by later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 15 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Take the past 7 days including today: 1/11: +14F 1/12: +25F 1/13: +15F 1/14: -1F 1/15: +2F 1/16: +5F 1/17: +8F (so far) That's a cumulative dept of +68 with a 7 day avg of +9.7F. I'd say a week of about +10 is a torch, sorry. I had the 1st period pinned with the cutter in the post on Jan 3 . And I believed and posted that the real torch would extend from Jan 17 - 24 . Yesterday was plus 4.5 , the actual`s get adjust at months end - the initial gets rounded up / but fixed at months end . 43/30 = 73 / 36.5 vs N of 32 is 4.5 Today 40/38 = 78 / 39 vs N of 32 + 7 MY 3 days 14 / 15 /16 12 day forecast missed by 1.5 C / I will live kid . Now yesterdays high was yesterdays high was 43 today it`s 40 and and 40 again tomorrow . The lows make the departures but it counts . 40 doesn`t feel very " furnacy " to me . I am still waiting for this period where the GFS has plus 15c over the N/E and not 1 day - this early week . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I'll gladly sacrifice 1 snowstorm for a good 3-5" rain event Sure. We've made a dent or two but still need a good amount of help up here with the drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said: Sure. We've made a dent or two but still need a good amount of help up here with the drought. We also need a wet year...if we get to May and the precip stops again, we'll still in the same hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, PB GFI said: I had the 1st period pinned with the cutter in the post on Jan 3 . And I believed and posted that the real torch would extend from Jan 17 - 24 . Yesterday was plus 4.5 , the actual`s get adjust at months end - the initial gets rounded up / but fixed at months end . 43/30 = 73 / 36.5 vs N of 32 is 4.5 Today 40/38 = 78 / 39 vs N of 32 + 7 MY 3 days 14 / 15 /16 12 day forecast missed by 1.5 C / I will live kid . Now yesterdays high was yesterdays high was 43 today it`s 40 and and 40 again tomorrow . The lows make the departures but it counts . 40 doesn`t feel very " furnacy " to me . I am still waiting for this period where the GFS has plus 15c over the N/E and not 1 day - this early week . Today's high so far at the park is 42 and low so far is 39, so today's avg is 40.5F, which is +8. Get the numbers right, PB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Today's high so far at the park is 42 and low so far is 39, so today's avg is 40.5F, which is +8. Get the numbers right, PB. H temps Sat 34 Sun 38 Mon 43 Tues 42 LOL 17 09:51 NW 3 4.00 Light Rain OVC028 40 33 77% NA NA 30.25 1023.4 17 08:51 Calm 7.00 Overcast OVC037 42 28 58% NA NA 30.25 1023.5 17 07:51 Calm 7.00 Overcast BKN027 OVC040 40 28 current temp 39 Wed 42 point and click EN FUEGO . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 jeez people, enough temperature talk for the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, PB GFI said: H temps Sat 34 Sun 38 Mon 43 Tues 42 LOL 17 09:51 NW 3 4.00 Light Rain OVC028 40 33 77% NA NA 30.25 1023.4 17 08:51 Calm 7.00 Overcast OVC037 42 28 58% NA NA 30.25 1023.5 17 07:51 Calm 7.00 Overcast BKN027 OVC040 40 28 current temp 39 Wed 42 point and click EN FUEGO . +8 is pretty far above avg, last time I checked. This is a stupid argument. We are in the middle of an extended above normal period, which is exactly what Isotherm and bluewave called for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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