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January 2017 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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3 hours ago, PB GFI said:

 

 

That`s 1 C 

 

Those maps  were plus 15 c Sat Sun Mon Tues . We are not talking about Friday / The forecast on the 2nd was for the 14 -15 16 - Which ended plus 1c - Those maps say plus 15c 

 

The argument was from last week the real AN starts on the 17th . No issues with the following 7 days after that 

4F is not 1C. It's 2.5C actually, which is a significant anomaly.

No one said that every day would be +15C, that would be absurd. It is commonly cooler here with a strong ridge to the north, even under abnormally high height fields. 

Getting a few days that are +4 interspersed with a sea of +10 days is hardly a victory. Nighttime lows are going to be around 40F when climo is 20-25F, huge torch. 40F lows are normal for mid April.

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1 minute ago, nzucker said:

4F is not 1C. It's 2.5C actually, which is a significant anomaly.

No one said that every day would be +15C, that would be absurd. It is commonly cooler here with a strong ridge to the north, even under abnormally high height fields. 

Getting a few days that are +4 interspersed with a sea of +10 days is hardly a victory. Nighttime lows are going to be around 40F when climo is 20-25F, huge torch. 40F lows are normal for mid April.

4F ? HUH ? 

 

 

Sat -1F

Sun  +1F

Mon +4F  = 4F DIVIDED BY 3 IS 1.33 F or 1C . 

 

3 day avg kid , you are so obsessed here you are missing the convo 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Not this one . 60 degrees and rain Wind gusts to 65k on LI 

That's false. We're talking about upper 30's to mid 40's tops but not that it matters cause it's a million miles away sort of speak plenty of time for this to evolve into at least a nice nor'easter that could give us a sizeable event whether it's rain or snow is still in the air, obviously rain is on the table if the king euro is showing but definitely no 60's 

 

edit: all I'm saying is we don't get 60's with this that's for sure. Obviously it may be a rain event but it's a week away so give it some time. The models are so bad that it could be partly sunny next week 

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Just now, WeatherFeen2000 said:

That's false. We're talking about upper 30's to mid 40's tops but not that it matters cause it's a million miles away sort of speak plenty of time for this to evolve into at least a nice nor'easter that could give us a sizeable event whether it's rain or snow is still in the air, obviously rain is on the table if the king euro is showing but definitely no 60's 

Dude I'm sorry but your thinking is way off here...

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1 minute ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

That's false. We're talking about upper 30's to mid 40's tops but not that it matters cause it's a million miles away sort of speak plenty of time for this to evolve into at least a nice nor'easter that could give us a sizeable event whether it's rain or snow is still in the air, obviously rain is on the table if the king euro is showing but definitely no 60's 

 

Euro is 50 -55 here , on on strong SE flow , that could bust 

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Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

50-60 MPG gusts for the shore and Long Island wow

What are you talking about dude... the GFS is a cutter which I think is what's going to happen to be honest but cmc and euro show a nice low pressure if the euro has a stronger low like the cmc shows than it would make its own cold air and show some snow basic meteorology but some in here don't know that! I'm done with this for another few days when we get closer. 

 

Have a nice days guys

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Just now, PB GFI said:

 

 

Yes it`s a furnace 

Take the past 7 days including today:

1/11: +14F

1/12: +25F

1/13: +15F

1/14: -1F

1/15: +2F

1/16: +5F

1/17: +8F (so far)

 

That's a cumulative dept of +68 with a 7 day avg of +9.7F.  I'd say a week of about +10 is a torch, sorry.

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2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

50-60 MPG gusts for the shore and Long Island wow

The specifics really don't matter this far out. There should be a storm around, that's all we know now. Hopefully it's not with howling SE winds like that, it would be a big coastal flood and beach erosion threat. 

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24 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

That's false. We're talking about upper 30's to mid 40's tops but not that it matters cause it's a million miles away sort of speak plenty of time for this to evolve into at least a nice nor'easter that could give us a sizeable event whether it's rain or snow is still in the air, obviously rain is on the table if the king euro is showing but definitely no 60's 

We're talking temp profile not low location

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36 minutes ago, nzucker said:

 

Getting a few days that are +4 interspersed with a sea of +10 days is hardly a victory. Nighttime lows are going to be around 40F when climo is 20-25F, huge torch. 40F lows are normal for mid April.

 

Agree. With next week's cutter (25th-26th), I think we will see widespread 60s, inland at least. Either way, Jan departures should be at least +5 by later next week.

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15 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Take the past 7 days including today:

1/11: +14F

1/12: +25F

1/13: +15F

 

 

1/14: -1F

1/15: +2F

1/16: +5F

1/17: +8F (so far)

 

That's a cumulative dept of +68 with a 7 day avg of +9.7F.  I'd say a week of about +10 is a torch, sorry.

 

I had the 1st period pinned with the cutter in the post  on Jan 3 .

And I believed and posted that the real torch would extend from Jan 17 - 24 . 

 

Yesterday was plus 4.5 , the actual`s get adjust at months end - the initial gets rounded up / but fixed at months end . 

 

43/30 = 73 / 36.5 vs N of 32 is 4.5 

 

Today 40/38 = 78 / 39 vs N of 32 + 7 

 

MY 3 days 14 / 15 /16 12 day forecast  missed by 1.5 C / I will live kid . 

 

Now yesterdays high was

yesterdays high was 43

today  it`s 40 and

and 40 again tomorrow  .

The lows make the departures but it counts . 40 doesn`t feel very "  furnacy " to me .

 

I am still waiting for this period where the GFS has plus 15c over the N/E and not 1 day - this early week . 

 

 

 

 

 

587381d73ee36_1-9-20177-26-41AM.thumb.png.920ad63941df651cb605f2c225970d72.png

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6 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

I had the 1st period pinned with the cutter in the post  on Jan 3 .

And I believed and posted that the real torch would extend from Jan 17 - 24 . 

 

Yesterday was plus 4.5 , the actual`s get adjust at months end - the initial gets rounded up / but fixed at months end . 

 

43/30 = 73 / 36.5 vs N of 32 is 4.5 

 

Today 40/38 = 78 / 39 vs N of 32 + 7 

 

MY 3 days 14 / 15 /16 12 day forecast  missed by 1.5 C / I will live kid . 

 

Now yesterdays high was

yesterdays high was 43

today  it`s 40 and

and 40 again tomorrow  .

The lows make the departures but it counts . 40 doesn`t feel very "  furnacy " to me .

 

I am still waiting for this period where the GFS has plus 15c over the N/E and not 1 day - this early week . 

 

 

 

 

 

587381d73ee36_1-9-20177-26-41AM.thumb.png.920ad63941df651cb605f2c225970d72.png

Today's high so far at the park is 42 and low so far is 39, so today's avg is 40.5F, which is +8.  Get the numbers right, PB.

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2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Today's high so far at the park is 42 and low so far is 39, so today's avg is 40.5F, which is +8.  Get the numbers right, PB.

 

 

H temps 

Sat    34

Sun   38

Mon   43 

Tues  42  LOL 

17 09:51 NW 3 4.00 Light Rain OVC028 40 33     77% NA NA 30.25 1023.4      
17 08:51 Calm 7.00 Overcast OVC037 42 28     58% NA NA 30.25 1023.5      
17 07:51 Calm 7.00 Overcast BKN027 OVC040 40 28

 current temp 39 

Wed  42  point and click 

 

EN FUEGO . 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

 

H temps 

Sat    34

Sun   38

Mon   43 

Tues  42  LOL 

17 09:51 NW 3 4.00 Light Rain OVC028 40 33     77% NA NA 30.25 1023.4      
17 08:51 Calm 7.00 Overcast OVC037 42 28     58% NA NA 30.25 1023.5      
17 07:51 Calm 7.00 Overcast BKN027 OVC040 40 28

 current temp 39 

Wed  42  point and click 

 

EN FUEGO . 

 

 

+8 is pretty far above avg, last time I checked.  This is a stupid argument.  We are in the middle of an extended above normal period, which is exactly what Isotherm and bluewave called for.

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