donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 3 hours ago, BxEngine said: If we're going to be plus 10 over the next 8-10 days or so (starting yesterday) doesnt this show that beyond that we will eat at that departure over the next 30 or so? (In other words, in order to get to the +2 - +3 the cfs is showing, dont we need to have lower positive departures (assuming the cold period isnt -10) to reduce the +10 we're starting with at the end of this warm period? Or am i an example of why someone shouldnt post so early in the morning lol) Yes. It's current monthly forecast for February is approximately +1°C (+1.8°F). The CFSv2's monthly forecasts are still somewhat outside of the range where the model shows skill. In another 5-7 days, it will be in a skillful range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 The latest ensembles still suggest the development of an EPO-/PNA+ pattern toward the end of January. The AO is likely to remain predominantly positive. Using the February 1-15, 1981-2010 base period, I took a look at an EPO-/PNA+/AO+ pattern relative to climatology (chart presented below). There is a subset of that pattern where the AO+ overwhelms the other two teleconnections that produces near normal temperatures (on average), but less frequent snowfall. There is another subset where the EPO and PNA more than offset the AO+ on the synoptic pattern, resulting in an even colder outcome and more frequent snowfalls. But at this point in time, it’s too soon to be sure about the exact details. For now, if things progress as indicated, there should be reasonable confidence in the onset of a colder weather pattern with the potential for an increase in snowfall. The snowfall details are more uncertain than the temperature-related outcomes from this far out, but the potential for above average snowfall exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 First two weeks of feb should be conducive w/ tropical forcing and strat induced improvements. Still watching wave 1 increase near the beginning of feb, but an official displacement continues to be a fairly low probability. Still, the changes will be enough for EPO/PNA improvements. It is our best window of the winter to date. Beyond the second week of feb, I am concerned we turn unfavorable again due to factors alluded to heretofore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 10 minutes ago, Isotherm said: First two weeks of feb should be conducive w/ tropical forcing and strat induced improvements. Still watching wave 1 increase near the beginning of feb, but an official displacement continues to be a fairly low probability. Still, the changes will be enough for EPO/PNA improvements. It is our best window of the winter to date. Beyond the second week of feb, I am concerned we turn unfavorable again due to factors alluded to heretofore. The GFS continues trying to break the pattern right down again at the end of its runs, that sometimes can be a sign a fairly quick breakdown is going to happen, just not as quick as the GFS is trying to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 9 minutes ago, Isotherm said: First two weeks of feb should be conducive w/ tropical forcing and strat induced improvements. Still watching wave 1 increase near the beginning of feb, but an official displacement continues to be a fairly low probability. Still, the changes will be enough for EPO/PNA improvements. It is our best window of the winter to date. Beyond the second week of feb, I am concerned we turn unfavorable again due to factors alluded to heretofore. Let's hope this doesnt wittle down to another 5-7 day transient shot of cold. With no help from the Atlantic, there has to be a bit of concern the EPO dives negative and then quickly goes positive as it has the first 1/2 of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 With yesterday's 43/30 high/low, we end the 14/15/16 period at +4. That is definitely not a BN period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 A 3 day average of plus 1 ( A 1 degree miss 12 days away ) when everyone was forecasting plus 15 c Weirdo . Where are the troll posts for those promised plus 15 A 1 degree miss from 12 days ago / that forecast was made on Jan 2 - WHEN POSTERS SAID AN EPIC TORCH WAS COMING . The IMAGES in between were ALL PLUS 15C and forecast here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 It was +4 over the 3 days, not +1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Those maps aren't that far off. Friday had a high of 62F (granted it was in the early AM, but still). And today, there is pretty good warmth to our west and SW headed our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, pazzo83 said: Those maps aren't that far off. Friday had a high of 63F (granted it was in the early AM, but still). And today, there is pretty good warmth to our west and SW headed our way. PAC NW is the place to be if you want sustained cold so far this winter. Incredible snows too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: It was +4 over the 3 days, not +1. That`s 1 C Those maps were plus 15 c Sat Sun Mon Tues . We are not talking about Friday / The forecast on the 2nd was for the 14 -15 16 - Which ended plus 1c - Those maps say plus 15c The argument was from last week the real AN starts on the 17th . No issues with the following 7 days after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: PAC NW is the place to be if you want sustained cold so far this winter. Incredible snows too. Dude how about some of the snowfall totals in the Cascades etc? Oh, just another few feet overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 9 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Dude how about some of the snowfall totals in the Cascades etc? Oh, just another few feet overnight. SEA and PDX right now are on pace to beat 1949 or 1950 for coldest January on record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Still too far out but impressive nonetheless. This is progged to be a rain storm for most of us though right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 GFS has a rainstorm while the CMC has a snow storm. go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 19 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Still too far out but impressive nonetheless. This is progged to be a rain storm for most of us though right? Huge rain maker modeled . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Needed in any form that it comes. The reservoirs are slowly filling, but we are still running a deficit year over year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 WET GFS run-most of it from next week's storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 hour ago, Jason WX said: GFS has a rainstorm while the CMC has a snow storm. go figure We lock in the GGEM and shift it a little west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 12z GEFS looks great. Nice +PNA/-EPO combo with a big trough in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 In message #1172, I noted that with regard to the likely EPO-/PNA+/AO+ pattern that lies ahead possibly for much of the 2/1-15 period that there is a subset of that pattern where the AO+ overwhelmed the other two teleconnections that produced near normal temperatures (on average) and less frequent snowfall (relative to climatology). There was another subset where the EPO and PNA more than offset the impact of the AO+ on the synoptic pattern, resulting in an even colder outcome and more frequent snowfalls (relative to climatology). Right now, I think the idea of the EPO/PNA exerting a dominant influence is somewhat more likely than the scenario where the AO+ would overwhelm those two teleconnections. Below are the 500 mb and temperature anomaly maps (left column: EPO-/PNA+ offset the AO+; right column: the AO+ has the dominant impact on the synoptic pattern): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: In message #1172, I noted that with regard to the likely EPO-/PNA+/AO+ pattern that lies ahead possibly for much of the 2/1-15 period that there is a subset of that pattern where the AO+ overwhelmed the other two teleconnections that produced near normal temperatures (on average) and less frequent snowfall (relative to climatology). There was another subset where the EPO and PNA more than offset the impact of the AO+ on the synoptic pattern, resulting in an even colder outcome and more frequent snowfalls (relative to climatology). Right now, I think the idea of the EPO/PNA exerting a dominant influence is somewhat more likely than the scenario where the AO+ would overwhelm those two teleconnections. Below are the 500 mb and temperature anomaly maps (left column: EPO-/PNA+ offset the AO+; right column: the AO+ has the dominant impact on the synoptic pattern): EPO has ruled over all indices in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Euros an epic rain storm, nowhere near close for snow man: euro drops 4-5" of rain lol 6" lollies in parts of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euros an epic rain storm, nowhere near close for snow But wouldn't a storm this big make its own cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Just now, WeatherFeen2000 said: But wouldn't a storm this big make its own cold air It's raining up past Albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: It's raining up past Albany It's a week from now that is going to change twenty times until it's final solution. The cmc has a snowstorm so it bears watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: It's a week from now that is going to change twenty times until it's final solution. The cmc has a snowstorm so it bears watching Problem is you have no injection of cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 9 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: But wouldn't a storm this big make its own cold air Not this one . 60 degrees and rain Wind gusts to 65k on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 the euro is showing 50+kt wind gusts for most of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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