EasternLI Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: I meant December 08...that was a typo.. Yea, that's what I figured. No worries. Dec. '09 was one of my all time favorites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 23 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Yea, that's what I figured. No worries. Dec. '09 was one of my all time favorites. Same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I'm skeptical, but oh how we pray... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Sorry to inform, but the CFS still has no more than 10BN days in the next 30. The output for Jan. 7,8 in N.A. and that for Jan. 23,24 are mirror images of each other. I mean former is bonnie blue, and the latter bloody red throughout the continent. A January Thaw w/o the cold first for us. Pacific NW etc. will be appreciative I'm sure. Hope this turns out to be a lot of crap. I put this in Jan. thread since the 30 days is of course just about all of the month now. In addition, not one weekly had any BN average 500mb geopotential heights in the any of the periods shown. It offers only meager hope for a cold start to Feb. Personally I no longer think the second half of Jan. will be near normal. It will be a blowout one way or the other due to competing teleconnections and stratospheric unknowns. I now go 60% BLOWOUT HOT and 40% for BLOWOUT COLD. HOT because the last 22 months are that way and a pattern persists till a stronger one comes along. SE Ridge is like a bug that won't die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 52 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I'm skeptical, but oh how we pray... That would be an extreme drop if that ever verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Sorry to inform, but the CFS still has no more than 10BN days in the next 30. The output for Jan. 7,8 in N.A. and that for Jan. 23,24 are mirror images of each other. I mean former is bonnie blue, and the latter bloody red throughout the continent. A January Thaw w/o the cold first for us. Pacific NW etc. will be appreciative I'm sure. Hope this turns out to be a lot of crap. I put this in Jan. thread since the 30 days is of course just about all of the month now. In addition, not one weekly had any BN average 500mb geopotential heights in the any of the periods shown. It offers only meager hope for a cold start to Feb. Personally I no longer think the second half of Jan. will be near normal. It will be a blowout one way or the other due to competing teleconnections and stratospheric unknowns. I now go 60% BLOWOUT HOT and 40% for BLOWOUT COLD. HOT because the last 22 months are that way and a pattern persists till a stronger one comes along. SE Ridge is like a bug that won't die.Right, wrong, or indifferent, this model you are referencing is essentially on it's own. EPS, GEFS, GEPS, weeklies all argue for a -AO/-NAO setting up shop for a while in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 CFS also has a very cold February and a cold March. CIK will update when it shows a torch. K? Bye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 SE Ridge is like a bug that won't die.....I can think of something ..or someone ...else who's that bug also FWIW Earthlight is really beginning to get excited for jan 7 - jan 10 potential over on twitter, given potential pattern. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 3 hours ago, EasternLI said: Yea, that's what I figured. No worries. Dec. '09 was one of my all time favorites. Same. Had some of the best rates I've seen during that storm. The rates at times were comparable to 1/27/11 and 2/13/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 GGEM and GFS both have storm back next Friday, that ggem tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 19 minutes ago, Rjay said: Same. Had some of the best rates I've seen during that storm. The rates at times were comparable to 1/27/11 and 2/13/14. 2/13/14 is the big kahuna for snow rates. Massive band came north with huge aggregates the size of softballs. Picked up 6" in one hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 10 minutes ago, psv88 said: 2/13/14 is the big kahuna for snow rates. Massive band came north with huge aggregates the size of softballs. Picked up 6" in one hour. Just dug up some video of that beast from my cloud, not sure how to post it. I really miss that winter...63 inches of snow I believe...13-14 and 14-15 were both incredible years. Almost all events were all snow as well. Just epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 The king has spoken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 12z euro crushes the area next saturday. almost at the same lead time as last years blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 50 minutes ago, psv88 said: Just dug up some video of that beast from my cloud, not sure how to post it. I really miss that winter...63 inches of snow I believe...13-14 and 14-15 were both incredible years. Almost all events were all snow as well. Just epic. I had 58" in Bay Ridge in 13-14...all three main events (1/3, 1/24, 2/14) were around a foot in southern Brooklyn. Had 8" on 2/2 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Why are so many members so excited about the next 15? This shows that the 500mb. THK is lower right now than at any time in the next 2-weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 hour ago, SnowBlitzkrieg said: 12z euro crushes the area next saturday. almost at the same lead time as last years blizzard. It snows for over 24 hours on the euro as well assuming it remains all snow. Probably would at least some mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 EPS besides the few days of warmth next week, after Wed, there's no AN temps through its entire run into mid Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Muitple wave storm on the models for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 55 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: EPS besides the few days of warmth next week, after Wed, there's no AN temps through its entire run into mid Jan SE Ridge makes a return after the 10th on the 12z. We need those heights to build across the pole like Feb 14 to keep the cold pattern going longer. The idea is to get enough of a block across the pole to roll the -PNA trough on it's side like Feb 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I'm relatively confident some sort of snow event happens here around that 7th-10th period. I'm just not buying suppresion of any sort this year until that PNA goes positive. In the patten show I would expect something to track darn close to the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 hour ago, bluewave said: SE Ridge makes a return after the 10th on the 12z. We need those heights to build across the pole like Feb 14 to keep the cold pattern going longer. The idea is to get enough of a block across the pole to roll the -PNA trough on it's side like Feb 2014. Agree. Going to be difficult to force a protracted -NAM with these background conditions, for now at least: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Not as explosive as other guidance but GFS still has storm wave on friday. large difference between GFS/ euro+ggem, is that the southern piece of energy is able to get ahead of the trough and which pulls the second wave northeast into our storm, we need the first wave to trend weaker and allow the second piece of energy to slide out in front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 26 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Agree. Going to be difficult to force a protracted -NAM with these background conditions, for now at least: It seems like the long range ensembles have been forecasting too much blocking over the AO and NAO regions since late November. So once the -EPO ridge faded or retrograded into the WPO region, the SE ridge came back. We need to flip the -PNA positive or get the ridge to build over the top to hold the cold in place for more than 5-10 days at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 18z gfs stronger with the first wave and with a ill positioned high it leads to problems along the coast. Just another possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 24 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Not as explosive as other guidance but GFS still has storm wave on friday. large difference between GFS/ euro+ggem, is that the southern piece of energy is able to get ahead of the trough and which pulls the second wave northeast into our storm, we need the first wave to trend weaker and allow the second piece of energy to slide out in front 12z Para looks good though in terms of waiting on the second wave. We know the ops are going to waver, good signal across the board for now at the synoptic scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 18z gfs stronger with the first wave and with a ill positioned high it leads to problems along the coast. Just another possibility Yep. Microanalyzing each model run right now this far out is essentially useless, the pattern supports the possibility of a storm...thats all we can hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 18z gfs stronger with the first wave and with a ill positioned high it leads to problems along the coast. Just another possibility With the stronger first wave the baroclinic zone ends up being too far south for the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 minute ago, BxEngine said: Yep. Microanalyzing each model run right now this far out is essentially useless, the pattern supports the possibility of a storm...thats all we can hope for. Yep. The pattern looks great on the eps for the end of week threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: With the stronger first wave the baroclinic zone ends up being too far south for the second wave. Perfectly illustrated by the snowmap off the 18z gfs haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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