January 2017 Discussion & Observations

[mikemost]

8 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

look what the euro showed this afternoon

If you want snow, this map means nothing. A well placed low doesn't do you any good in and of itself. That same frame:

 

Verbatim, the antecedent air-mass will be anomalously warm, no cold air to work with. - You've got yourself a driving rainstorm with a coastal flooding threat.

I'm still very excited about the prospects February brings. But this isn't our snowstorm (albeit, it's shaping up to be an impressive wind/rain event)

[mikemost]

 

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

People need to keep and eye on the big picture and not argue over noise at the margins.

This...

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Euro was a nice 4-8" snowfall for the interior 

[MJO812]

47 minutes ago, mikemost said:

If you want snow, this map means nothing. A well placed low doesn't do you any good in and of itself. That same frame:

 

Verbatim, the antecedent air-mass will anomalously warm, no cold air to work with. - You've got yourself a driving rainstorm with a coastal flooding threat.

I'm still very excited about the prospects February brings. But this isn't our snowstorm (albeit, it's shaping up to be an impressive wind/rain event)

EPS also has this signal with a coastal.

Need it colder for the coast. Still a lot of time.

[forkyfork]

i'm more impressed by the moisture connection

[forkyfork]

49 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

EPS also has this signal with a coastal.

Need it colder for the coast. Still a lot of time.

not going to happen. a strong block forms to our north after the cold air is swept out of the eastern us and that shuts off the polar air supply 

[bluewave]

We are on quite a roll with major storm events coming within a few days of January 25th. I guess we were finally due for a big rainstorm instead.

 

January 26-27,2011....NYC....19.0'

January 21, 2012 heaviest snowstorm of winter

January 25, 2013 best snowfall of month 

January 21-22, 2014 Suffolk 14.0"

January 26-27, 2015 Eastern Suffolk max..28.5"

January 23, 2016 JFK.max..30.5"

[PB GFI]

Another cool weekend setting up for Sat and Sun.

Back door CF.

Euro / GFS / Canadian 

upper 30s to low 40s for highs for the city on N .cool 

GFS has a Norlun through EPA and NNJ as a low exits to our SE .

Euro is not on board ..

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

The GFS is still not spectacular though it's improved.  If it ran out to Day 20 it would probably destroy the western ridge with energy from the pacific and we'd rapidly go zonal. 

[PB GFI]

Another great run of the weeklies .

Jan 15 th  thru March 3rd are great .

Wish they had skill after week 3 becauase they are great .

That's 2 weekly runs in a row that paints winter wire to wire for February. 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Things have trended colder for tomorrow for us mountain men, freezing rain advisory currently in effect, with sleet and snow to start, some areas to just to my north and higher elevations looks to stay frozen for the duration.

 

.10-.25 ICE is NWS advisory forecast as of now, dangerous travel tomorrow up this way that's for sure

[H2Otown_WX]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

We are on quite a roll with major storm events coming within a few days of January 25th. I guess we were finally due for a big rainstorm instead.

 

January 26-27,2011....NYC....19.0'

January 21, 2012 heaviest snowstorm of winter

January 25, 2013 best snowfall of month 

January 21-22, 2014 Suffolk 14.0"

January 26-27, 2015 Eastern Suffolk max..28.5"

January 23, 2016 JFK.max..30.5"

1/25/10 was a driving rainstorm. I remember it because it was the first day of my second semester of college and I got soaked walking to class lol.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010/us0125.php

[weatherpruf]

25 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

1/25/10 was a driving rainstorm. I remember it because it was the first day of my second semester of college and I got soaked walking to class lol.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010/us0125.php

Let's hope something interesting happens in Feb then.

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

1/25/10 was a driving rainstorm. I remember it because it was the first day of my second semester of college and I got soaked walking to class lol.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010/us0125.php

That's right. I forgot about that one. There was a long gap that winter between the 12/19 snowstorm and the fantastic run from 2/10 to the end of the month.

The suppression of the KU on 2/6 was pretty rough for most in this forum except the crew just to the south.

 

[CIK62]

EURO transfers energy to create a predominant benchmark low on the 24th., while GFS goes with a GLC as the primary.   The energy back over the Great Lakes is turned into a strong low on the GFS but on the EURO it is headed for the benchmark.  Runs looked the same till Day 7 spilt.

[Brian5671]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That's right. I forgot about that one. There was a long gap that winter between the 12/19 snowstorm and the fantastic run from 2/10 to the end of the month.

The suppression of the KU on 2/6 was pretty rough for most in this forum except the crew just to the south.

 

We then had a strong cold front go through around the 27th with squalls....that cold air got trapped in place by the strong block and it was off to the races for the mid Atlantic

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

46 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

We then had a strong cold front go through around the 27th with squalls....that cold air got trapped in place by the strong block and it was off to the races for the mid Atlantic

This comming storm could be the start of a major full scale pattern change. As modeled it's big time snow storm above 2,000 feet. Mt. pocono special. Stale cold or even lack of cold with that track in late January is blue bomb for the mountains  

[Isotherm]

Here comes the torch. These are approximate departures for KNYC over the next week or so. Cumulative departure of at least +92 is likely due to a solid week+ string of double digit positives. These are based upon the latest point and click guidance which is probably underdone. 

16th: +5

17th: +10

18th: +14

19th: +11

20th: +9

21st: +11

22nd: +10

23rd: +10

24th: +12

 

 

[Isotherm]

11 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

And that's the part people just don't seem to get. Highs in the mid to upper 40's are a +10 from NYC N, W & E this time of year. Couple that with some days where the low and high are less than 10 degrees apart and you have AN avg of +12 to +15 in some of those areas.

 

Agreed. This is a furnace pattern for January, particularly with the overnight lows (more normal for April). Even though highs won't be 55-60 every day, with averages of U30/L-M 20S, these temperatures are very warm.

[Isotherm]

CFS V2 initialized today indicates that the late Jan/early Feb pulse of cold will be transient. Depicts essentially a continuation of Dec/Jan with warmth Jan 16-Mar:

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, Isotherm said:

CFS V2 initialized today indicates that the late Jan/early Feb pulse of cold will be transient. Depicts essentially a continuation of Dec/Jan with warmth Jan 16-Mar:

 

If only it was a good model

lol

[mattinpa]

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

If only it was a good model

lol

True. I respect Isotherm for his knowledge and informativeness, but this one thing is no reason to write off winter. We can't rule out warming up again in Feb., but if we do, looks like snow chances are possible in a the window we have.

[BxEngine]

6 hours ago, Isotherm said:

CFS V2 initialized today indicates that the late Jan/early Feb pulse of cold will be transient. Depicts essentially a continuation of Dec/Jan with warmth Jan 16-Mar:

 

If we're going to be plus 10 over the next 8-10 days or so (starting yesterday) doesnt this show that beyond that we will eat at that departure over the next 30 or so? (In other words, in order to get to the +2 - +3 the cfs is showing, dont we need to have lower positive departures (assuming the cold period isnt -10) to reduce the +10 we're starting with at the end of this warm period? Or am i an example of why someone shouldnt post so early in the morning lol) 

[bluewave]

Today is a great example of how the daily minimum at a site like LGA can be higher than the normal max for this time of year.

After the +5 avg temp yesterday at LGA, the daily minimum so far today of 41 is 15 degrees higher than the normal of 26.

Normal for today at LGA....39 high...26 low

So far this month...37.6...+4.3

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

If we're going to be plus 10 over the next 8-10 days or so (starting yesterday) doesnt this show that beyond that we will eat at that departure over the next 30 or so? (In other words, in order to get to the +2 - +3 the cfs is showing, dont we need to have lower positive departures (assuming the cold period isnt -10) to reduce the +10 we're starting with at the end of this warm period? Or am i an example of why someone shouldnt post so early in the morning lol) 

That map is Celsius too which puts us in +3 to +4 Celsius area wide which would mean approx +5.5 to +7.5 Fahrenheit for the period. To put it bluntly that would suck big time. Hopefully it's an outlier for now.

[Brian5671]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Today is a great example of how the daily minimum at a site like LGA can be higher than the normal max for this time of year.

After the +5 avg temp yesterday at LGA, the daily minimum so far today of 41 is 15 degrees higher than the normal of 26.

Normal for today at LGA....39 high...26 low

So far this month...37.6...+4.3

+5 for the month is almost a lock at this point.    No real cold air the next 7-10 days.  

[BxEngine]

9 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

That map is Celsius too which puts us in +3 to +4 Celsius area wide which would mean approx +5.5 to +7.5 Fahrenheit for the period. To put it bluntly that would suck big time. Hopefully it's an outlier for now.

Right but my question is if we'll already be at the minimum +10 after the first 10 days or so of the period that the map shows, what are the departures needed for the remaining 35 or so days to get to that point? If the cfs is showing decent cold air during this late jan/early feb period, then obv the departure following that period will be fairly significant again. If the cold period ends up "cool", and doesnt put much of a dent in the double digit positive departures we'll be with at that point, im not sure how warm the "warm up" following it would be. Does that make sense?

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

+5 for the month is almost a lock at this point.    No real cold air the next 7-10 days.  

Several stations are on track for their warmest January with above normal snowfall. Just goes to show how great this pattern has been since

last winter for making the optimal use of what little cold we have for snowfall.Only around 6 days this month with a cold daily departure so far.

[CIK62]

Yep. I estimate a surplus of 150 degrees by the morning of the 25th., or +6.25 degs. by that  date.  We need about a surplus of 200 degrees to make the Top Ten Jan's list.  The last two days of the month should contribute a -10 to -20 degrees together, so goal should be 220 by the 29th.                 

At any rate,  January is getting a DISHONORABLE DISCHARGE from Winter 2017 and no pension.

[donsutherland1]

This morning, the Arctic Oscillation was near zero (+0.011). Nevertheless, its average for the December 1-January 17 period is +1.330. It would need to average -1.520 for the remainder of meteorological winter to have an average of 0.000.

To date, 85% of days have had positive AO figures and 56% had values of +1.000 or above. It is now all but certain that winter 2016-17 will see a majority of days on which the AO was positive. If the AO is positive on just 4 of the remaining 42 days of meteorological winter, the AO will have been positive on 50% of the days during meteorological winter.

Both persistence and the latest ensemble guidance suggest that the AO will easily surpass that threshold. Therefore, as the pattern change commences in the closing week of January (1/27 +/- 2 days is my guess right now), it will be driven by the Pacific (EPO-/PNA+). Climatology suggests that there remains some possibility that the number of AO- days could be higher in February than they were in December and very likely will be in January. In December just 16% of days had a negative AO. This month, just 12% of days have had a negative AO  If the current guidance is right, the number of such days in January could be close to or even somewhat below the December figure.