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January 2017 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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3 hours ago, PB GFI said:

 

Brian , KNYC

Sat - 1

Sun +2

Mon 

Tues 

Wed 

The Euro is plus 2 to 3 max over the 3 days .

These are the temps for the 3 days .

H 40 / 41 ish.

L 29 / 23 ish.

Whats that gona bust too 50 ?  The 5 day period prob avg plus 2 to plus 3 if the Euro is right.

I was specific in saying the Euro thru mid week.

The MOS numbers were too warm this weekend.

 

Now next weekend Thrs thru Sun  its 4 days of 50 plus / thats your torch , its short lived .

 

And that's the part people just don't seem to get. Highs in the mid to upper 40's are a +10 from NYC N, W & E this time of year. Couple that with some days where the low and high are less than 10 degrees apart and you have AN avg of +12 to +15 in some of those areas.

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43 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

That call isn't looking so hot.

Sat: 34/28 (-1.5F)

Sun: 38/30 (+1.5F)

Mon: 36/30 (+0.5) so far

 

Hey everyone , Pazzo thinks this warm .

When the call was for plus 15 c .

Seeing these temps a week away is a fail  ? 

 

 

 

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36 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Hey everyone , Pazzo thinks this warm .

When the call was for plus 15 c .

Seeing these temps a week away is a fail  ? 

 

 

 

You were wrong. I know that's hard for you to admit, but you busted. Everyone on the board thinks you were wrong. 

My forecast this week is Tuesday 45/41, Wesnesday 48/37, Thursday 50/37...we don't live in Seattle, lows near 40F is a torch in mid January. My average low is 25F and all the forecast lows are at least +12. How is that not a torch? Are you kidding me?

Once again you think you're better than the models. You delude yourself, you're not.

 

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On 1/2/2017 at 5:31 AM, PB GFI said:

0Z GFS 2 M anomalies. 

Day 4 - 8

Day 8 - 12 We get cutter in here so its AN for a few before return flow HP comes back.

Day 12 - 16 

Are all BN .

Once past the 15th , we will reshuffle , but in the heart of Jan , the GFS is not AN yet .

Lets see what todays ensembles look like for the next 10 to 15 days .

/then we will modify/

 

2 chances at snow this week . If 1 works I will take it and feel fortunate .

 

This is going back up in a more polite way .

This is a 12 day forecast which showed the  14 15 16 to be BN , in the end its going to be off by 1 degree . 

Now put that up against the  majority of forecasts here that  were plus 15c, a torch for the same period .

So I find it odd that if the majority of forecasts here were for a torch , temps in the 50s and they busted by 15c  in the end the Sat thru Mon misses  by a degree why is he here .

I think I know .

The idea that Sat thru Mon or Sat thru Wed qualifies as a torch is a fallacy .

The torch will be short lived and will be the result of a cut off pulling the height field back for a few days .

The next issue the torch lovers are going to face will b the 12z GFS Sat Sun next weekend where a back door CF tries to make it snow in the HV.

18z temps 38 42 KNYC next weekend. Plenty of time to see if thats real but for now the torch will be palatable .

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Just now, nzucker said:

You were wrong. I know that's hard for you to admit, but you busted. Everyone on the board thinks you were wrong. 

My forecast this week is Tuesday 45/41, Wesnesday 48/37, Thursday 50/37...we don't live in Seattle, lows near 40F is a torch in mid January. My average low is 25F and all the forecast lows are at least +12. How is that not a torch? Are you kidding me?

Once again you think you're better than the models. You delude yourself, you're not.

 

 

Sat thru Wed is plus 2 or 3 thats not a torch .

Sorry man , cant help you . This 3 day period is only plus 1 , 2 more days to finish the 5 day period plus 2 or 3.

Not a torch Sat to Wed. Not by any metric

 

Thrs is not my concern . Posted Thrs thru Sun is best shot at AN .

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9 minutes ago, nzucker said:

You were wrong. I know that's hard for you to admit, but you busted. Everyone on the board thinks you were wrong. 

My forecast this week is Tuesday 45/41, Wesnesday 48/37, Thursday 50/37...we don't live in Seattle, lows near 40F is a torch in mid January. My average low is 25F and all the forecast lows are at least +12. How is that not a torch? Are you kidding me?

Once again you think you're better than the models. You delude yourself, you're not.

 

 

Show me your post where you thought this weekend Sat Sun Mon  would bw .

Show us where you thought this 3 day period would be anywhere close to N ..

Then we can move onto Tues Wed.

Because my AN has always been 17 thru 24.

So show us the post for what you had this 3 day period which I posted 12 days ago on .

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17 minutes ago, nzucker said:

You were wrong. I know that's hard for you to admit, but you busted. Everyone on the board thinks you were wrong. 

My forecast this week is Tuesday 45/41, Wesnesday 48/37, Thursday 50/37...we don't live in Seattle, lows near 40F is a torch in mid January. My average low is 25F and all the forecast lows are at least +12. How is that not a torch? Are you kidding me?

Once again you think you're better than the models. You delude yourself, you're not.

 

When your expected low is above your avg high, that's a torch.  I think we can all agree with that.

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On 1/3/2017 at 2:18 PM, nzucker said:

PB, you're a great poster but let's not pretend the idea of a major two week cold and snow pattern isn't on the ropes. My forecast has Thursday at 36/30, Friday at 35/28, Saturday at 33/24, Sunday at 32/19, and Monday at 30/26...that's just slightly below average for early to mid January. If we get one cutter in the 10-15 day period, we could easily finish the period, and the month, above normal. In any case, the cold shot does not look as impressive as December, and that only got us down to 17F. Considering we had a winter low of -1F last year, 2F in 2015, and 4F in 2014, none of this looks that impressive.

You said the cold and snow would be from Jan 5-20, while Bluewave and Isotherm said it was a one week shot. As I predicted, the result will probably be in the middle. We definitely look to see moderation in the Jan 12-15 period as the EPO breaks down.

Both of our snow threats are also looking less impressive. The 12z ECM has nothing for Thursday night and only 1-3" for Sunday. If we only have a few inches by 1/20, it will be a major disappointment. 

I'm waiting to see if the PNA spike for the end of Jan/beginning of Feb shown by the Euro weeklies and CFS monthly is correct. That could make a much better February for sure.

Nzucker here , 

Your call for the 5 - 10 th was for slightly B , we did a lot better than that 

Your call for moderation is happening right in the middle of this weekend , where it got colder after the cutter ( which I had )  and you missed 6 to 12 for us.

I mean thats a miss man.

The few inch idea was a little light but ok 

Theres 7 to 12 for the period from EWR east .

How can come in here and throw stones  ? 

I havent trolled any of these misses yet you jump in like you are nailing forecasts .

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5 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Nzucker here , 

Your call for the 5 - 10 th was for slightly B , we did a lot better than that 

Your call for moderation is happening right in the middle of this weekend , where it got colder after the cutter ( which I had )  and you missed 6 to 12 for us.

I mean thats a miss man.

The few inch idea was a little light but ok 

Theres 7 to 12 for the period from EWR east .

How can come in here and throw stones  ? 

I havent trolled any of these misses yet you jump in like you are nailing forecasts .

Our low was 15F in the Jan 5-10 period. Last year's low was -1F. We had about 6" of snow between two events, both of which melted in 2-3 days. So yes, the idea of a major pattern change did fail. We are still stuck on a above normal pattern.

Also, the EPO did break down around Jan 12. That's why we have a warm week coming up.

I was a little light on the 2nd snow event, OK we got 5" here instead of 3"...

And the return to a +PNA seems imminent after 1/20...

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9 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Our low was 17F in the Jan 5-10 period. Last year's low was -1F. We had about 6" of snow between two events, both of which melted in 2-3 days. So yes, the idea of a major pattern change did fail. We are still stuck on a above normal pattern.

Also, the EPO did break down around Jan 12. That's why we have a warm week coming up.

I was a little light on the 2nd snow event, OK we got 5" here instead of 3"...

And the return to a +PNA seems imminent after 1/20...

That system dropped 6 to 8 around the city 

8 to 12 CNJ and LI.

It was not a 5 inch event for us .

You have to stop lying about the snowfall EWR has had 8 to as much as 12 on LI during the period .

No one cares about your backyard or how fast it melted / snowcover days were not in my forecast.

The average 30 day snowfall for NYC is 7 the achieved that in 12 days .

Now stop .

My call was for plus 2 in Jan , its prob warmer .

But I also said that the warm up would get cut into 

Sat Sun Mon Tues do not add up to a torch. The models had plus 15c over the area , its going to finish plus 2 .

Now if you want a torch  its Thrs thru Mon , but now the weekend is in question on the GFS.

Theres a cutter before we flip and thats 2 days of plus 20 .

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The GEFS and GEPS both agree on a trough in the east. The GEFS has a -EPO and a slightly positive PNA, while the GEPS has a stout -EPO and +PNA. They both agree on a positive AO/NAO, but the positive signs in the Pacific are much more important. We've done well without blocking in the past, as long as there is a good Pacific pattern. It's also nice to see below normal heights near Nova Scotia after being plagued by the WAR for the last couple years. 

GEFS

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_61.png

GEPS

gem-ens_z500a_namer_61.png

 

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8 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Again., not gona find any wins for some of these posters .

Thank god we can go pull these pieces up .

I learn a lot here..

 

Can you please stop with this stuff? I'm sure it's annoying for the mods to have to delete these posts, and all it does is start bickering contests. You can disagree without calling posters out like this. 

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7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Can you please stop with this stuff? I'm sure it's annoying for the mods to have to delete these posts, and all it does is start bickering contests. You can disagree without calling posters out like this. 

You have a guy  trolling a  1 degree bust for a weekend forecasts made 12 days ago with no attention paid to the torch disasters .

So I miss by a degree 12 days out and the guy trolls but  ignore 15c busts and I am calling Pazzo out.

Do you have any idea why people dont put good stuff in here .

By the time February is cold and snowy , 3 to 4 guys here will have done the work to know why.

Away theres 20 ...

 

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Just now, pazzo83 said:

The numbers don't lie.  You of all people should know that.

Fin.

If  a 3 day forecast from 12 days  away  ends up 1 AN and thats the focus  yet you ignore the torch calls of plus 10 to 15 for the same period in finance we would dismiss you as unqualified. 

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46 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said:

Euro with a storm at the bench mark on Jan 24th ftw 

There's a big primary that drives warm air in before the redevelopment, and the air source is from the Pacific. We need more than just a low in a good place for snow with such a lousy setup. Hopefully the PNA and EPO becoming more favorable at the end of the month will help. 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There's a big primary that drives warm air in before the redevelopment, and the air source is from the Pacific. We need more than just a low in a good place for snow with such a lousy setup. Hopefully the PNA and EPO becoming more favorable at the end of the month will help. 

yep-pacific air won't do it...too bad, it's a great track had there been any real cold air around.....

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2 hours ago, nzucker said:

We can all agree on it except for PB, who lives in his own world.

A torch is 50 or above in January. 

 

Not to to mention Paul (PB) is the best forecaster here. Earth light was great but he left, now your stuck with Paul and that's not bad at all.

 

look what the euro showed this afternoon

IMG_1397.PNG

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18 minutes ago, mriceyman said:

Is a torch anything AN or is it over a certain +departure. I think anything in the low to mid 40s isnt a torch but just warmer than normal. People here seem to have many different opinions on this and it leads to squabbling. 

That's why it's always better to stick to above normal..normal..or below normal when describing a pattern. Bottom line is this mild pattern will continue

until later in the month. While the snowcover has been very short lived this month due to the lack of extended cold, several stations like JFK will have

one of their most mild Januaries with over 10" of snow. People need to keep and eye on the big picture and not argue over noise at the margins.

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