January 2017 Discussion & Observations

[PB GFI]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

This is a mild pattern coming up right into next week. We are going to see a string of 40+ days which is above normal for this time of year.

There are even several 50 degree days or milder coming up in the mix. Nothing really changed in regard to this forecast. If you looked at 

the 500 mb pattern last week, you could see that that the pattern showed more HP in the Maritimes and onshore flow here. So it

isn't the extreme warmth of just a few days ago with the seep SW flow. Yesterday started the 40 degree high streak after one slightly

below normal day in Saturday.

 

 

 

Chris the entire forecast has changed  40 degrees  is not warm , its slightly AN for mid January standards , which in reality means most spend most of the day in the 30s before they max out .

Thats not a torch / the models were wrong .

They were not plus 2 over 6 days they were plus 20.

Sat Sun ( already occured )  Mon Tues Wed Thrs now on the Euro were and are slightly A.

But thats the 1st  6 days where it was suppose to be 55 .There were calls on here for multiple 60 degree days for this week and next.

A string of 40 degree days was not the torch forecast here , not one iota.

Now yes there may be 3 days of 50 as a center cuts off in the midwest and pulls the height field back , but by day 9 its gone .

 

[bluewave]

Just now, PB GFI said:

 

Chris the entire forecast has changed  40 degrees  is not warm , its slightly AN for mid January standards , which in reality means most spend most of the day in the 30s before they max out .

Thats not a torch / the models were wrong .

They were not plus 2 over 6 days they were plus 20.

Sat Sun ( already occured )  Mon Tues Wed Thrs now on the Euro were and are N to slightly A.

But thats 6 days where it was suppose to be 55 .

A string of 40 degree days was not the torch forecast here one iota.

Now yes there may be 3 days of 50 as a center cuts off in the midwest and pulls the height field back , but by day 9 its gone .

 

 

You have to look at where the 500 mb heights were that they were showing. A big ridge over SE Canada tends to have more of an onshore flow,

so fluctuations in long range temperatures is par for the course. 40's and above are a mild pattern for this time of year. We added several +4's

just yesterday. The big picture hasn't changed. We still have an above normal temperature streak into next week with winter taking a break

before it reloads heading into February.

[PB GFI]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

You have to look at where the 500 mb heights were that they were showing. A big ridge over SE Canada tends to have more of an onshore flow,

so fluctuations in long range temperatures is par for the course. 40's and above are a mild pattern for this time of year. We added several +4's

just yesterday. The big picture hasn't changed. We still have an above normal temperature streak into next week with winter taking a break

before it reloads heading into February.

 

Chris NYC was plus 2 yesterday after -1 and today is a cold morning so today may finish BN

The rest of the week through Thrs prob will average plus 2 or 3 and that is not a torch.

I know what the 500 mb pattern looks like and I yelled on here for a week saying we dont live at 18k feet .

I know wht its not warm rather N to slightly A , I posted that the ridges influence would get muted as HP showed up .

When we total up Sat thru Thrs and that gets me to the 19th you will not find any major pos departures over that 6 day period  .

I mean if 6 days of plus 2 in the heart of January is considered a torch then we will have to just agree to disagree. 

One suggestion,  pls wear a coat during the AM and in the  later PM hours this week  , its chilly out brother.

[tim]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

You have to look at where the 500 mb heights were that they were showing. A big ridge over SE Canada tends to have more of an onshore flow,

so fluctuations in long range temperatures is par for the course. 40's and above are a mild pattern for this time of year. We added several +4's

just yesterday. The big picture hasn't changed. We still have an above normal temperature streak into next week with winter taking a break

before it reloads heading into February.

...you guys can quibble all you want regarding how the torch is not so much a torch..(looking simplistically @

TWC 7 day forecasts..its NOT that warm)..but to see both of you agreeing on the flip to colder is something 

we all can hang our hat on..

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Chris NYC was plus 2 yesterday after -1 and today is a cold morning so today may finish BN

The rest of the week through Thrs prob will average plus 2 or 3 and that is not a torch.

I know what the 500 mb pattern looks like and I yelled on here for a week saying we dont live at 18k feet .

I know wht its not warm rather N to slightly A , I posted that the ridges influence would get muted as HP showed up .

When we total up Sat thru Thrs and that gets me to the 19th you will not find any major pos departures over that 6 day period  .

I mean if 6 days of plus 2 in the heart of January is considered a torch then we will have to just agree to disagree. 

One suggestion,  pls wear a coat during the AM and in the  later PM hours this week  , its chilly out brother.

The bar has been raised pretty high on what is considered warm in recent years. So a steady streak of 3-5 above normal days with some +10s

is something we just take for granted. Just goes to show how used we have become to this kind of warmth. An extended  run of 40+ degree days

is far different from what is considered really cold for this time of year. The same period back in 2005 saw 11 days below freezing and 8 single

digit lows days. That is what you consider a cold pattern this time of year.

 

 

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

This is not a mid January  cold pattern , but 6 days of plus 2 is by no means a torch.

Thats a guidance fail 

The idea was those plus 10 and 20 anomalies would get muted and from the 14th thru 19th they do .

As originally opined this morning the real warmth is 4 days this weekend before reversal.

Now what you posted above I expect to see starting in early  February and lasting through mid month .

 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

This is not a mid January  cold pattern , but 6 days of plus 2 is by no means a torch.

Thats a guidance fail 

The idea was those plus 10 and 20 anomalies would get muted and from the 14th thru 19th they do .

As originally opined this morning the real warmth is 4 days this weekend before reversal.

Now what you posted above I expect to see starting in early  February and lasting through mid month .

 

Where are you getting 6 days of +2 from. Most spots were +4 yesterday with even higher departures expected right into next week.

 

[PB GFI]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Where are you getting 6 days of +2 from. Most spots were +4 yesterday with even higher departures expected right into next week.

 

Sat was - 1 KNYC was plus 2 yesterday today may finish BN

 

The Euro is not warm , look at its next 4 days .

Those MOS numbers busted warm this weekend.

 

Check the 0z NYC euro meteogram thru thrs. Ryan uses the soundings 

I posted away I cant post here .

[bluewave]

Just now, PB GFI said:

KNYC was plus 2 .

The Euro is not warm , look at its next 4 days .

Those MOS numbers busted warm this weekend

We went over the issues with that site recently. Look at JFK..LGA...EWR...etc.

Where do you see +2's in this MOS forecast?  You realize the average split is 25/38 or so right?

NEW YORK CITY-LAGUARDIA   
 KLGA   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   1/16/2017  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 MON  16| TUE 17| WED 18| THU 19| FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23 CLIMO
 X/N  44| 35  45| 40  49| 39  48| 39  47| 38  45| 37  48| 41  51 25 38

[Brian5671]

Can't really use KNYC for temps-it's always cool with the vegetation issues-hell they can't even measure snow right.

-

we'll see how this week goes, if it's anything like last week, the #'s will bust low and we'll end up with some pretty good +departures.   Normals for this time of year is upper 30's so 50 is a big departure

[PB GFI]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

We went over the issues with that site recently. Look at JFK..LGA...EWR...etc.

Where do you see +2's in this MOS forecast?  You realize the average split is 25/38 or so right?

NEW YORK CITY-LAGUARDIA   
 KLGA   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   1/16/2017  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 MON  16| TUE 17| WED 18| THU 19| FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23 CLIMO
 X/N  44| 35  45| 40  49| 39  48| 39  47| 38  45| 37  48| 41  51 25 38

I was specific starting Sat at KNYC it was - 1  , Sunday was plus 2 today will finish BN after a cold morning.

Thats 3 days , now the next 3 days on the Euro are plus 3 .

Thats 6 days of plus 2 or 3 .

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

I was specific starting Sat at KNYC it was - 1  , Sunday was plus 2 today will finish BN after a cold morning.

Thats 3 days , now the next 3 days on the Euro are plus 3 .

Thats 6 days of plus 2 or 3 .

The low was only 30 in NYC which is above normal for the date. 

[PB GFI]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

LOL-Look at December.   KNY was almost a degree colder than ANY surrounding station!!!!   They ALWAYS run cool.

Bet you didn't think we'd have two days last week where guidance busted by 10 degrees with one of the days have record highs REGION Wide....what model showed that?

Skip the name calling dude, it make you look DT ish.

 

Where are the upper 50 s you just posted  through thrs ? 

Show us now 

[PB GFI]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The low was only 30 in NYC which is above normal for the date. 

EWR is 28 . Those MOS numbers are higher than the Euro and busted High this weekend. 

Careful using them early this week.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Where are the upper 50 s you just posted  through thrs ? 

Show us now 

my point was modeling often busts low on these warmups.   So there's there potential that a few days this week really torch .   Maybe is does maybe it doesn't.  Time will tell.

[PB GFI]

11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

my point was modeling often busts low on these warmups.   So there's there potential that a few days this week really torch .   Maybe is does maybe it doesn't.  Time will tell.

 

Brian , KNYC

Sat - 1

Sun +2

Mon 

Tues 

Wed 

The Euro is plus 2 to 3 max over the 3 days .

These are the temps for the 3 days .

H 40 / 41 ish.

L 29 / 23 ish.

Whats that gona bust too 50 ?  The 5 day period prob avg plus 2 to plus 3 if the Euro is right.

I was specific in saying the Euro thru mid week.

The MOS numbers were too warm this weekend.

 

Now next weekend Thrs thru Sun  its 4 days of 50 plus / thats your torch , its short lived .

 

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

EWR is 28 . Those MOS numbers are higher than the Euro and busted High this weekend. 

Careful using them early this week.

The disagreement is Wednesday where both models have +10 lows near 40. The Euro stays stuck in the low 40's with it's warmer day on Thursday.

Again...it's still a warm pattern no matter how you slice it coming up. Just shows how used we have become to milder weather that 40's

don't seem that warm anymore in January.

The Raw Euro 2ms have been running too cold...this morning was supposed to be 22 in NYC and it was 30...MOS was closer.

[PB GFI]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The disagreement is Wednesday where both models have +10 lows near 40. The Euro stays stuck in the low 40's with it's warmer day on Thursday.

Again...it's still a warm pattern no matter how you slice it coming up. Just shows how used we have become to milder weather that 40's

don't seem that warm anymore in January.

The Raw Euro 2ms have been running too cold...this morning was supposed to be 22 in NYC and it was 30...MOS was closer.

Wed 39/37 .

My torch is Thrs to Sun it's plus 10  min maybe even plus 15.

But Sat to Wed I think is 5 days of plus 2 to plus 3 , a week ago that period was suppose to be plus 20 .

Now come on thats a huge guidance bust .

 

[bluewave]

Just now, PB GFI said:

Wed 39/37 .

My torch is Thrs to Sun it's plus 10  min .

But Sat to Wed I think is 5 days of plus 2 to plus 3 , a week ago that period was suppose to be plus 20 .

Now come on thats a huge guidance bust .

 

It's a bust if you are looking at the Euro 2m's which bounce around quite a bit. MOS numbers have been more steady.

I believe that there is a Euro MOS that corrects the raw guidance. But I am not sure which vendor carries it.

[donsutherland1]

Yesterday, I posted a chart based on the teleconnections indicating probabilities of given high temperatures:

If one applies the chart to the 1/16-1/27 timeframe, as I expect the stretch of generally above normal days to end around 1/27 +/-2 days, one is dealing with a 12-day period. That's a 12-day period. So, if one took 50° or higher days, one would be dealing with an expected figure of 3 days. Factor in the idea that NYC's climate has warmed modestly since 1950, one is dealing with an expected value of 4 days. So, if this pattern is reasonably representative of those in the past that were similar, it's fair to expect 4 +/- 1 (3-5) 50° days and perhaps 1 60° day. The warmest part of the period will likely be after next weekend.

In the longer range, an EPO-/PNA+ pattern is forecast to develop. In addition, the GFS ensemble objective analogs include 1958 and 1979. Both cases saw cold and above normal snowfall in February. 1958 saw the cold and snowfall persist well into March. In short, the evidence for a pattern change that would favor colder conditions and snowfall opportunities is growing. It's still too soon to be sure whether February would wind up colder than normal, but it could.

 

 

[PB GFI]

GREAT  February in coming .

Enjoy whatever this week brings .

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yesterday, I posted a chart based on the teleconnections indicating probabilities of given high temperatures:

If one applies the chart to the 1/16-1/27 timeframe, as I expect the stretch of generally above normal days to end around 1/27 +/-2 days, one is dealing with a 12-day period. That's a 12-day period. So, if one took 50° or higher days, one would be dealing with an expected figure of 3 days. Factor in the idea that NYC's climate has warmed modestly since 1950, one is dealing with an expected value of 4 days. So, if this pattern is reasonably representative of those in the past that were similar, it's fair to expect 4 +/- 1 (3-5) 50° days and perhaps 1 60° day. The warmest part of the period will likely be after next weekend.

In the longer range, an EPO-/PNA+ pattern is forecast to develop. In addition, the GFS ensemble objective analogs include 1958 and 1979. Both cases saw cold and above normal snowfall in February. 1958 saw the cold and snowfall persist well into March. In short, the evidence for a pattern change that would favor colder conditions and snowfall opportunities is growing. It's still too soon to be sure whether February would wind up colder than normal, but it could.

 

 

22 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

GREAT  February in coming .

Enjoy whatever this week brings .

+PNA/-EPO has been a winning combination for us during several 2010's winters around here.

 

[PB GFI]

Just now, bluewave said:

 

+PNA/-EPO has been a winning combination for us during several 2010's winters around here.

 

This time I like a 20 day period at minimum. 

No more of this 5 and 10 day stuff . 

The real deal is coming .

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

This time I like a 20 day period at minimum. 

No more of this 5 and 10 day stuff . 

The real deal is coming .

 Let's get that +PNA going...that's our ticket to something big stormwise

[psv88]

Frigid morning. 18, forecast was 23. 

RC always overperforms and CAA almost always underperforms out here. 

Encouraged at guidance indicating +pna

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

12 was as low as it got last night, up to 29 now

[Animal]

Update this morning from Mt Holly NWS on the on-going torch in  January.

 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: Above normal heights prevail with the strong positive
anomaly shifting north to Hudson Bay late in the week while strong
cold troughs develop in the westerlies between 30 and 40 N: off
the west coast, lower Mississippi Valley and western Atlantic by
next Sunday night.

Temperatures: the first two weeks have averaged above normal...
generally 2 to 3 degrees. There is little chance for excessive
cold in our outlook for the next two weeks, in a way good news, as
we are now in the heart of winter. Everything above normal now is
a plus when it comes to heating costs. And above normal it
is...statistical guidance indicates averaging about 8 degrees
above normal Tuesday, then 10 to 15 degrees above normal daily
Wednesday through Sunday. With this in mind, it is difficult to
see this month averaging normal, for it would take quite a few
days of well below normal temps to lower the monthly average

[pazzo83]

On 1/15/2017 at 4:25 AM, PB GFI said:

Sat 14 

Sun 15 

Mon 16 

Fixed / warm up starts Tues .

That call isn't looking so hot.

Sat: 34/28 (-1.5F)

Sun: 38/30 (+1.5F)

Mon: 36/30 (+0.5) so far

[PB GFI]

6 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

That call isn't looking so hot.

Sat: 34/28 (-1.5F)

Sun: 38/30 (+1.5F)

Mon: 36/30 (+0.5) so far

 

Chris , I seriously never took you for such a stooge .

This is because you do zero research and put no effort into forecasting or context 

Go look at the 2M anomalies forecast a week ago for the period Jan 14 thru 18 .

It was 5 days of plus 15 c . Wheres the torch? 

40 degree highs ? Lol . Most never got out of the 30s since Sat morning .

Now my forecast is Sat thru Wed +2 c .

Who busted , me by a degree or 2  for 5 days or the guys that yelled torch  4 days of 60 , record heat and April temps that never came.

[pazzo83]

2 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Chris , I seriously never took you for such a stooge .

This is because you do zero research and put no effort into forecasting or context 

Go look at the 2M anomalies forecast a week ago for the period Jan 14 thru 18 .

It was 5 days of plus 15 c . Wheres the torch? 

40 degree highs ? Lol 

Now my forecast is Sat thru Wed +2 c .

Who busted , me by a degree or 2  for 5 days or the guys that yelled torch that never came.

You said 14/15/16 (after changing it before when you said 13/14/15) would be BN.  I mean that's just a wrong call - why can't you admit when you get a call wrong?  This isn't a BN period we're in right now.