January 2017 Discussion & Observations

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, danstorm said:

The NOAA will likely have massive budget cuts coming soon.

I've heard rumors they are going to centralize some of the stuff such as TAFs and what not. Part of me wonders if that's being done because they individual offices are so verification scared they don't put in significant things like low vis with snow events or thunderstorms until inside of 6 hours which makes the forecast more or less useless beyond 4/6 hours out 

[SnowGoose69]

I'm pretty sure the conservancy isn't talking the 7pm measurement for whatever reason.  At times their midnight and 1am measurements have been bad as well but not as frequently as that 7pm one

[WEATHERBUFF]

51 minutes ago, bkviking said:

Yeah Jb just being his extremist self. Levi Cowan posted a video yesterday at Tropical Tidbits where his review of SSW events during La Ninas and El Niño's led him to believe the upcoming cold and blocking will not be long lasting. 

Never heard of the guy and also we are in more of a La Nada than a La Nina.

[WEATHERBUFF]

27 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I've heard rumors they are going to centralize some of the stuff such as TAFs and what not. Part of me wonders if that's being done because they individual offices are so verification scared they don't put in significant things like low vis with snow events or thunderstorms until inside of 6 hours which makes the forecast more or less useless beyond 4/6 hours out 

I think the cuts may be justified because NOAA is going way past what the agency was designed to do.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

6 hours ago, seanick said:

Has anyone sent a well written email to the NWS Upton and CC the Central Park folks?

I have sent many well written and well documented emails to NOAA over the last several years. They always reply and state they are aware of the problem and it frustrates them too. Their most recent solution to take the measurements from the zookeeper and hand it over to the Conservancy made a bad situation even worse.

To give you one example of just how bad it is, at one point they asked me if I'd be willing to do the measurements. I explained I live in Orange County and it wasn't practical for me.

 Occasionally they do go back after the fact and correct totals. Last year they did with the blizzard, two years ago they did with three different storms from that season but their reactions are always reactive never proactive.

The simple solution and I've suggested it several times to them is get several trained spotters to take the measurements in the Park. One of their Reply's to me was, "you try to get someone to take midnight measurements in the Park".  

And so it goes year after year, time after time. I have made them aware of the January 7 under measurement and yesterdays but have not received a response yet to either. This leads me to think they may be giving up.

I mean it's such a difficult problem to fix, measuring snow requires the highest intellect, endurance,strength and stamina. Who among us could ever do it accurately?

For those that want to give it a shot email [email protected]

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Ensembles show signs of some nice blocking setting up late month 

[bluewave]

With the mild temps in the forecast, JFK is on track for the warmest January among years with similar snowfall. 

2017....11.1".....36.2...+3.3 through 1/14

1984.....9.9"......29.3...-2.0

1966....10.1".....31.2..+0.6

1971...11.6"......27.9...-3.9

1987...11.8"......32.4..+1.1

1985...12.4"......28.8...-2.5

1982...12.5"......26.7....-4.7

[Isotherm]

After examining the data this morning, the following looks reasonable to me:

 

1) The initial wave-1 assault on the stratospheric vortex Jan 22-24 will be insufficient in inducing an official warming event. Meridional heat flux and momentum flux becomes more zonal by D10, reflective of a slight decrease in tropospheric wave driving. However, as I have mentioned, the tropospheric precursor pattern will begin to strengthen the Aleutian stratospheric high once again, setting the stage for another increase in wave-1 amplitudes, probably to at least 1400 gpm at 10hpa by the very end of January. This will act to increase geopotential heights across Canada, North America, and the polar regions, with the vortex displaced off-pole. The question becomes, will the wave forcing be sufficiently potent to close the deal? Namely, a continued push of the vortex into Europe w/ a classic displacement event. This will aid in determining the longevity of the upcoming pattern.

 

2) MJO robust / coherent propagation through P1-2 (see WWB) will result in the lagged tropospheric result with the development of mean troughing in Nino-esque locations. The Aleutian trough and concomitant W Canadian / AK ridging will act contemporaneously with the displacement activity through the stratosphere to raise geopotential heights in the EPO/PNA domains.

 

3) The AO and NAO will remain largely positive through the beginning of February, reflective of the aforementioned circumstances.

 

4) The period of favorability should peak in the first 10-11 days of February as the MJO forcing impacts the troposphere, coupled with the stratospheric progression. In the first 10 days of February, a snowstorm is highly probable somewhere in the Eastern US.

 

5) Beyond February 10th-11th, there are two possible pathways. The low frequency / interseasonal Nina walker cell should return coincident with the decay of the MJO, possibly leading to a worsening of the Pacific pattern as we approach mid February. The question would then become - do we hand off favorability to the Atlantic? This will only be the case if wave driving is sufficiently strong to induce the full SSW in early February. Otherwise, the off-pole displacement will be subsequently be followed by reconsolidation of the vortex at the pol and lowering geopotential heights by week 3. The outcome of the stratosphere is indeterminate, but there will be enough displacement activity to produce a conducive regime for early Feb.

 

Conclusion: the largest window of opportunity of the winter thus far begins near the end of Jan, through the second week of Feb. The pattern may turn more unfavorable thereafter, but I cannot guarantee that right now.

[uncle W]

the end of January to the first two weeks of February is on average the dead of winter...Hopefully this winter lives up to that saying...lets hope winter isn't dead...just sleeping...

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

After examining the data this morning, the following looks reasonable to me:

 

1) The initial wave-1 assault on the stratospheric vortex Jan 22-24 will be insufficient in inducing an official warming event. Meridional heat flux and momentum flux becomes more zonal by D10, reflective of a slight decrease in tropospheric wave driving. However, as I have mentioned, the tropospheric precursor pattern will begin to strengthen the Aleutian stratospheric high once again, setting the stage for another increase in wave-1 amplitudes, probably to at least 1400 gpm at 10hpa by the very end of January. This will act to increase geopotential heights across Canada, North America, and the polar regions, with the vortex displaced off-pole. The question becomes, will the wave forcing be sufficiently potent to close the deal? Namely, a continued push of the vortex into Europe w/ a classic displacement event. This will aid in determining the longevity of the upcoming pattern.

 

2) MJO robust / coherent propagation through P1-2 (see WWB) will result in the lagged tropospheric result with the development of mean troughing in Nino-esque locations. The Aleutian trough and concomitant W Canadian / AK ridging will act contemporaneously with the displacement activity through the stratosphere to raise geopotential heights in the EPO/PNA domains.

 

3) The AO and NAO will remain largely positive through the beginning of February, reflective of the aforementioned circumstances.

 

4) The period of favorability should peak in the first 10-11 days of February as the MJO forcing impacts the troposphere, coupled with the stratospheric progression. In the first 10 days of February, a snowstorm is highly probable somewhere in the Eastern US.

 

5) Beyond February 10th-11th, there are two possible pathways. The low frequency / interseasonal Nina walker cell should return coincident with the decay of the MJO, possibly leading to a worsening of the Pacific pattern as we approach mid February. The question would then become - do we hand off favorability to the Atlantic? This will only be the case if wave driving is sufficiently strong to induce the full SSW in early February. Otherwise, the off-pole displacement will be subsequently be followed by reconsolidation of the vortex at the pol and lowering geopotential heights by week 3. The outcome of the stratosphere is indeterminate, but there will be enough displacement activity to produce a conducive regime for early Feb.

 

Conclusion: the largest window of opportunity of the winter thus far begins near the end of Jan, through the second week of Feb. The pattern may turn more unfavorable thereafter, but I cannot guarantee that right now.

The analog years that you have noted from your website are the winters of 1973 - 1974 and 1975 - 1976.  6" fell on February 8th 1974 with more on Long Island.  I was living on LI at the time and I remember the high fluff factor of the 1974 storm.  It was a very pretty storm.

[PB GFI]

The 12z Euro has no torch at KNYC over the next 5 days .

Its 5 days of  slighty AN  as highs only a few times max into the low to mid 40s at best by Thrs .

Thats a far cry from the  multiple 60 the models showed just 5 days ago .

So we may be  shortening  this warm window yet again .

There may be  be a 5 day period where we see some multiple 50 degree days later  in the period  but that's going to be followed by a great pattern change after the 26th .

 

 

[frd]

27 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

After examining the data this morning, the following looks reasonable to me:

 

1) The initial wave-1 assault on the stratospheric vortex Jan 22-24 will be insufficient in inducing an official warming event. Meridional heat flux and momentum flux becomes more zonal by D10, reflective of a slight decrease in tropospheric wave driving. However, as I have mentioned, the tropospheric precursor pattern will begin to strengthen the Aleutian stratospheric high once again, setting the stage for another increase in wave-1 amplitudes, probably to at least 1400 gpm at 10hpa by the very end of January. This will act to increase geopotential heights across Canada, North America, and the polar regions, with the vortex displaced off-pole. The question becomes, will the wave forcing be sufficiently potent to close the deal? Namely, a continued push of the vortex into Europe w/ a classic displacement event. This will aid in determining the longevity of the upcoming pattern.

 

2) MJO robust / coherent propagation through P1-2 (see WWB) will result in the lagged tropospheric result with the development of mean troughing in Nino-esque locations. The Aleutian trough and concomitant W Canadian / AK ridging will act contemporaneously with the displacement activity through the stratosphere to raise geopotential heights in the EPO/PNA domains.

 

3) The AO and NAO will remain largely positive through the beginning of February, reflective of the aforementioned circumstances.

 

4) The period of favorability should peak in the first 10-11 days of February as the MJO forcing impacts the troposphere, coupled with the stratospheric progression. In the first 10 days of February, a snowstorm is highly probable somewhere in the Eastern US.

 

5) Beyond February 10th-11th, there are two possible pathways. The low frequency / interseasonal Nina walker cell should return coincident with the decay of the MJO, possibly leading to a worsening of the Pacific pattern as we approach mid February. The question would then become - do we hand off favorability to the Atlantic? This will only be the case if wave driving is sufficiently strong to induce the full SSW in early February. Otherwise, the off-pole displacement will be subsequently be followed by reconsolidation of the vortex at the pol and lowering geopotential heights by week 3. The outcome of the stratosphere is indeterminate, but there will be enough displacement activity to produce a conducive regime for early Feb.

 

Conclusion: the largest window of opportunity of the winter thus far begins near the end of Jan, through the second week of Feb. The pattern may turn more unfavorable thereafter, but I cannot guarantee that right now.

 

Excellent summary here. I love how you combine the various elements in forecasting analysis.

If I may ask a couple questions. Are the precursor to changes at the stratoospheric level incorporated into the output of the Euro weeklies ?

Do you feel that based on the Westerly QBO that we have currently we are at a disadvantage in getting a classic displacement event?  

And lastly, at what point in the solar cycle , as we approach the minimum , the odds of increased blocking in the NAO domain increases? I read a post you made a month ago where you thought we might be getting ready to make the change to seeing a greater occurence of the - NAO phase.

Thanks so much. 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

15 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

The 12z Euro has no torch at KNYC over the next 5 days .

Its 5 days of  slighty AN  as highs only a few times max into the low to mid 40s at best by Thrs .

Thats a far cry from the  multiple 60 the models showed just 5 days ago .

So we may be  shortening  this warm window yet again .

There may be  be a 5 day period where we see some multiple 50 degree days later  in the period  but that's going to be followed by a great pattern change after the 26th .

 

 

That's fantastic news for the mountains. The shorter the true torch the better. Plus we don't want local coastal waters to even have a slight chance of warming. I was walking on the beach yesterday in the snow and the wind was from the south east right off the ocean. So we have reached that point we're local waters aren't as much of an inhibitor as they are earlier in the season. Had we had the exact setup we had yesterday in early December it would have been mostly rain at the coast 

[PB GFI]

22 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That's fantastic news for the mountains. The shorter the true torch the better. Plus we don't want local coastal waters to even have a slight chance of warming. I was walking on the beach yesterday in the snow and the wind was from the south east right off the ocean. So we have reached that point we're local waters aren't as much of an inhibitor as they are earlier in the season. Had we had the exact setup we had yesterday in early December it would have been mostly rain at the coast 

 

Right in the heart of the torch.

 

Sat 34 /28

Sun 40/27 forecast. 

12z Euro .

Mon 41/22

Tues 41/32

Wed 39/37

Now that is definitely slightly AN as we are in the coldest part of winter  but no where the multiple 50s and 60s advertised here .

 

If the Euro is right those are late December norms and by no means warm

It is certainly not the April type stuff people thought.

This is a winter where we have overachieved in every bad pattern. Keep that in mind as we go into a really good period from the 25 thru the 15th at min.

The backend of the forecast period before the pattern change is really AN and that may occur. 

But its getting sliced up once again 

 

[PB GFI]

After looking at the warming at 10mb by day 8 , low level cold air is really going to develop in Canada and dive into the waiting trough in the N/E .

Now day 12 thru 15 are cold but after looking at the  EPS I expect NYC to test 0 sometime in thr 1st 10 days of February. 

[bluewave]

38/27 is the average spilt going forward over the next few weeks in the NYC Metro. All you need for +5's are low 40's highs and +10's upper 40's highs.

We may go 10 days or more coming up with the highs making 40 degrees or better. So there will be significant +departures heading into the end of the month.

...NEW YORK CITY...
   CENTRAL PARK, NY
   SUNNY    RAIN     MOCLDY   PTCLDY   PTCLDY   PTCLDY   PTCLDY
   27/42    36/40    40/50    36/48    35/47    37/47    37/47
    00/00    30/80    80/40    20/10    10/10    20/20    10/20

[PB GFI]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

38/27 is the average spilt going forward over the next few weeks in the NYC Metro. All you need for +5's are low 40's highs and +10's upper 40's highs.

We may go 10 days or more coming up with the highs making 40 degrees or better. So there will be significant +departures heading into the end of the month.

...NEW YORK CITY...
   CENTRAL PARK, NY
   SUNNY    RAIN     MOCLDY   PTCLDY   PTCLDY   PTCLDY   PTCLDY
   27/42    36/40    40/50    36/48    35/47    37/47    37/47
    00/00    30/80    80/40    20/10    10/10    20/20    10/20

 

No argument here about where Jan ends up with,  but 5 days of high temps in the low 40s is by no means by any metric a torch .

The Euro is colder than the above.

5 days ago the forecast was for a huge ridge in the E with multiple days in the 60s .

Thats a 15 to 20 degree bust by the guidance if we start Sat and end Wed.

It is very hard to pull a torch off with HP in E Canada. 

A huge chunk of the torch was muted .

The real torch is after the 17th but reverses hard after the 25th .

 

And what is coming after  is real .

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, PB GFI said:

 

No argument here about where Jan ends up with,  but 5 days of high temps in the low 40s is by no means by any metric a torch .

The Euro is colder than the above.

5 days ago the forecast was for a huge ridge in the E with multiple days in the 60s .

Thats a 15 to 20 degree bust by the guidance if we start Sat and end Wed.

It is very hard to pull a torch off with HP in E Canada. 

A huge chunk of the torch was muted .

The real torch is after the 17th but reverses hard after the 25th .

 

And what is coming after  is real .

 

I think the 68/48+25 at LGA on the 12th was probably the warmest that we will see this month. I agree with you about ridging in SE Canada and the Maritimes

having more of an onshore component off the cooler Atlantic.  But I do think that there will be several +10 or higher departure days in the mix over the next 10 days.

Just a very persistent above normal temperature pattern. We have seen how the mild temperatures have exceeded guidance recently.

May have to wait until near the start of February to see Arctic air again. It will take several days for that late month projected +PNA

-EPO ridge to tap some cross polar.

 

 

[Stormlover74]

24 here

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS just made a HUGE flip in the long range. Looks more like the EPS/GEPS with the big EPO ridge and trough in the east. Great sign. 

00z

18z

[Jason WX]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS just made a HUGE flip in the long range. Looks more like the EPS/GEPS with the big EPO ridge and trough in the east. Great sign. 

00z

18z

Great sign to see this far out.

[Paragon]

On 1/15/2017 at 4:54 AM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Updated midnight totals. JFK 1.8 Newark 1.4 Islip 1.5 and Bridgeport 1.3 LGA MM. 

And in the middle of it all the new zookeepers the incompetents at the Conservancy come in at 0.6 inches. Someone please make it stop. 

Write to [email protected]

Also the wind issue- even the TV media is picking up on it (thanks Bill Evans!) He ridiculed the "calm" NYC winds the other day while everyone else had gusts of 30+

[Paragon]

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

I think the 68/48+25 at LGA on the 12th was probably the warmest that we will see this month. I agree with you about ridging in SE Canada and the Maritimes

having more of an onshore component off the cooler Atlantic.  But I do think that there will be several +10 or higher departure days in the mix over the next 10 days.

Just a very persistent above normal temperature pattern. We have seen how the mild temperatures have exceeded guidance recently.

May have to wait until near the start of February to see Arctic air again. It will take several days for that late month projected +PNA

-EPO ridge to tap some cross polar.

 

 

I wonder if you and PB are forecasting a 06-07 kind of reversal? Let's just hope we get snow instead of freezing rain and sleet like we did back then.

[Paragon]

17 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I have sent many well written and well documented emails to NOAA over the last several years. They always reply and state they are aware of the problem and it frustrates them too. Their most recent solution to take the measurements from the zookeeper and hand it over to the Conservancy made a bad situation even worse.

To give you one example of just how bad it is, at one point they asked me if I'd be willing to do the measurements. I explained I live in Orange County and it wasn't practical for me.

 Occasionally they do go back after the fact and correct totals. Last year they did with the blizzard, two years ago they did with three different storms from that season but their reactions are always reactive never proactive.

The simple solution and I've suggested it several times to them is get several trained spotters to take the measurements in the Park. One of their Reply's to me was, "you try to get someone to take midnight measurements in the Park".  

And so it goes year after year, time after time. I have made them aware of the January 7 under measurement and yesterdays but have not received a response yet to either. This leads me to think they may be giving up.

I mean it's such a difficult problem to fix, measuring snow requires the highest intellect, endurance,strength and stamina. Who among us could ever do it accurately?

For those that want to give it a shot email [email protected]

the problems are deeper than just snowfall totals, it's also temps (mostly in the summer) and wind speeds.  I don't know why people are so lazy at the park that they won't cut the foliage.  People complained about JFK and they seemed to fix the snowfall measurement issue there, they could do the same for NYC, but unless someone bothers to cut the foliage the other issues will remain.

 

[Paragon]

On 1/15/2017 at 4:54 AM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Updated midnight totals. JFK 1.8 Newark 1.4 Islip 1.5 and Bridgeport 1.3 LGA MM. 

And in the middle of it all the new zookeepers the incompetents at the Conservancy come in at 0.6 inches. Someone please make it stop. 

Write to [email protected]

Thanks, I wrote to them too mentioning several events where this has occurred and specifically mentioned the last measurement at NYC being several hours before the last measurement taken at the airports.

[PB GFI]

53 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I wonder if you and PB are forecasting a 06-07 kind of reversal? Let's just hope we get snow instead of freezing rain and sleet like we did back then.

 

In a period from late January into most of February I expect there to be a major arctic outbreak along with 200 % of N snowfall for the period .

I believe a very cold and snowy flip is coming .

 

 

[Paragon]

2 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

In a period from late January into most of February I expect there to be a major arctic outbreak along with 200 % of N snowfall for the period .

I believe a very cold and snowy flip is coming .

 

 

Another winter that followed that pattern (and was a la nina) was 95-96.

Most remember the big blizzard in Jan 96 (which actually occurred around the time of our snowstorm this Jan), but then we had a three week thaw with massive flooding and severe wx and then very late in Jan the pattern turned and then we had a snowfall (minor) on the last day of January and then another pretty big snowstorm around Valentines Day in 1996 that dropped close to a foot of snow.

[PB GFI]

14 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Another winter that followed that pattern (and was a la nina) was 95-96.

Most remember the big blizzard in Jan 96 (which actually occurred around the time of our snowstorm this Jan), but then we had a three week thaw with massive flooding and severe wx and then very late in Jan the pattern turned and then we had a snowfall (minor) on the last day of January and then another pretty big snowstorm around Valentines Day in 1996 that dropped close to a foot of snow.

As far as the thaw , there is almost no  thaw . The torch has really been chopped up .

We had a 3 day period of  largely AN due to a cutter only to have the following 5 days of that SE ridge completely destroyed. If you remember the guidance had a 10 period of plus 20s and multiple days of 60.

Now some of you just N of the city will never even see 50.

That was opined and argued here ad nauseam here .

In the period Sat ( yesterday ) and now all the way to Thrs the Euro maxes KNYC  in the low 40s with upper 20s at night .

Thats late December type stuff /Not April.

There is another cutter day 5 thru 8 so its 4 days of 50  ? followed by a pattern reversal .

( But even that needs to be examined later in the week ) as the NAO and MJO are working to keep a trough very close in the northeast .

This torch went from 2 weeks to 2  periods of 3 days .

 

 

[Paragon]

3 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

As far as the thaw , the is no thaw . The torch has really been chooped up .

We had a 3 day period of  largely AN due to a cutter only to have the following 5 days of that SE ridge completely destroyed. If you remember the guidance had a 10 period of plus 20s and multiple days of 60.

Now some of you just N of the city will never even see 50.

That was opined and argued ad nauseam here .

In the period Sat ( yesterday ) and now all the way to Thrs the Euro maxes KNYC  in the low 40s with upper 20s at night .

Thats late December type stuff /Not April.

There is another cutter day 5 thru 8 so its 4 days of 50  ? followed by a pattern reversal .

( But even that needs to be examined later in the week ) as the NAO and MJO are working to keep a trough very close in the northeast .

This torch went from 2 weeks to 2  periods of 3 days .

 

 

I also noticed that even in the short term (like later this week) that highs in the city have been dropped from the 50s into the 40s and even on Sunday we stayed in the 30s.  And this morning it's very cold (low 10s in Suffolk County and Central NJ and low 20s here) and even though the last storm was minor, that snow has stuck around.  And it's as hard as rock this morning.

That 66-68 we hit last week may be the warmest we see for at least the next four weeks.

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, PB GFI said:

As far as the thaw , there is almost no  thaw . The torch has really been chopped up .

We had a 3 day period of  largely AN due to a cutter only to have the following 5 days of that SE ridge completely destroyed. If you remember the guidance had a 10 period of plus 20s and multiple days of 60.

Now some of you just N of the city will never even see 50.

That was opined and argued here ad nauseam here .

In the period Sat ( yesterday ) and now all the way to Thrs the Euro maxes KNYC  in the low 40s with upper 20s at night .

Thats late December type stuff /Not April.

There is another cutter day 5 thru 8 so its 4 days of 50  ? followed by a pattern reversal .

( But even that needs to be examined later in the week ) as the NAO and MJO are working to keep a trough very close in the northeast .

This torch went from 2 weeks to 2  periods of 3 days .

 

 

 

This is a mild pattern coming up right into next week. We are going to see a string of 40+ days which is above normal for this time of year.

There are even some possible 50 degree days or milder coming up in the mix. Nothing really changed in regard to this forecast. If you looked at 

the 500 mb pattern last week, you could see that that the pattern showed more HP in the Maritimes and onshore flow here. So it

isn't the extreme warmth of just a few days ago with the deep SW flow. Yesterday started the 40 degree high streak after one slightly

below normal day in Saturday. The bar is set low for warmth during the coldest part of the year with the low 40's yesterday

registering several +4's for the day.