January 2017 Discussion & Observations

[PB GFI]

Jan 14 15 16 will avg BN as we add another inch today to our snow totals at airports around the city .

 

The calls of plus 2 for Jan denoted warm

but the period inside it snowed . And thats better than if we were - 5 and dry

Luckily the torch that will ensue as it is  a full 7 days of plus 10  so we should enjoy it  .

It will quickly turn into a VG winter pattern after the 26th.

 

Coats this weekend , shorts next week , shovels after the 27th .

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

So at 4pm Newark records 0.7 inches of snow Central Park 0.6 and JFK 1.0 LGA didn't report. 

7pm Newark 1.3 JFK 1.6 LGA 0.6 and KNYC 0.6. 

So everyone had 0.6 inches of snow between 4-7 pm except Central Park had 0.0. 

Its been going on for years whether it was the zookeeper or the incompetent Consevancy which keeps Fng up every Fng storm. Their problems seem to be the 7 and midnight readings for the most part so I guess in the future all snow must fall by 4 pm in Central Park or else it really didn't happen. 

Ridiculous and absurd and it just goes on and on year after year under measurement after under measurement. 

[Paragon]

34 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

So at 4pm Newark records 0.7 inches of snow Central Park 0.6 and JFK 1.0 LGA didn't report. 

7pm Newark 1.3 JFK 1.6 LGA 0.6 and KNYC 0.6. 

So everyone had 0.6 inches of snow between 4-7 pm except Central Park had 0.0. 

Its been going on for years whether it was the zookeeper or the incompetent Consevancy which keeps Fng up every Fng storm. Their problems seem to be the 7 and midnight readings for the most part so I guess in the future all snow must fall by 4 pm in Central Park or else it really didn't happen. 

Ridiculous and absurd and it just goes on and on year after year under measurement after under measurement. 

The temp and snowfall measurement issues with NYC unfortunately put a stain on the 150 year history of the station.  Things seem to have gone downhill ever since the ASOS was installed.

[pazzo83]

6 hours ago, PB GFI said:

Jan 13 14 15 will avg BN as we add another inch today to our snow totals at airports around the city .

 

The calls of plus 2 for Jan denoted warm

but the period inside it snowed . And thats better than if we were - 5 and dry

Luckily the torch that will ensue as it is  a full 7 days of plus 10  so we should enjoy it  .

It will quickly turn into a VG winter pattern after the 26th.

 

Coats this weekend , shorts next week , shovels after the 27th .

 

Right now Jan 13/14 together are averaging +14, so it's gonna take a pretty cold day tomorrow to be BN.

[PB GFI]

2 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

Right now Jan 13/14 together are averaging +14, so it's gonna take a pretty cold day tomorrow to be BN.

Sat 14 

Sun 15 

Mon 16 

Fixed / warm up starts Tues .

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

4 hours ago, Paragon said:

The temp and snowfall measurement issues with NYC unfortunately put a stain on the 150 year history of the station.  Things seem to have gone downhill ever since the ASOS was installed.

Updated midnight totals. JFK 1.8 Newark 1.4 Islip 1.5 and Bridgeport 1.3 LGA MM. 

And in the middle of it all the new zookeepers the incompetents at the Conservancy come in at 0.6 inches. Someone please make it stop. 

Write to [email protected]

[bluewave]

Models are  going for one of the longer 40 degree day streaks that we have seen in January coming up.

The longest that I could find in the 2000's was 13 days in a row reaching 40 during January 2013.

Looks like we have a shot a 10 days or more before the pattern turns colder again near the end of January.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ILoveWinter]

2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Updated midnight totals. JFK 1.8 Newark 1.4 Islip 1.5 and Bridgeport 1.3 LGA MM. 

And in the middle of it all the new zookeepers the incompetents at the Conservancy come in at 0.6 inches. Someone please make it stop. 

Write to [email protected]

I sent them an email.  I've noticed this for years too, just baffling that it continues unabated.

[Allsnow]

Wow black ice city out there this morning 

[uncle W]

7 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

So at 4pm Newark records 0.7 inches of snow Central Park 0.6 and JFK 1.0 LGA didn't report. 

7pm Newark 1.3 JFK 1.6 LGA 0.6 and KNYC 0.6. 

So everyone had 0.6 inches of snow between 4-7 pm except Central Park had 0.0. 

Its been going on for years whether it was the zookeeper or the incompetent Consevancy which keeps Fng up every Fng storm. Their problems seem to be the 7 and midnight readings for the most part so I guess in the future all snow must fall by 4 pm in Central Park or else it really didn't happen. 

Ridiculous and absurd and it just goes on and on year after year under measurement after under measurement. 

how many times can we say it's a disgrace?...they have 0.6 in their climate data...I knew that was going to happen...If it's not fixed we can throw out all the snowfall records and start again...

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Updated midnight totals. JFK 1.8 Newark 1.4 Islip 1.5 and Bridgeport 1.3 LGA MM. 

And in the middle of it all the new zookeepers the incompetents at the Conservancy come in at 0.6 inches. Someone please make it stop. 

Write to [email protected]

I will send an email later this morning. It is inconceivable that more than 50% of the precipitation (all of which fell after 4:30) did not accumulate. It's more likely that the Conservancy measurer called it a day after the first measurement and was unavailable to take another measurement. 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

down to 14 last night night, still sitting cold at 17

[uncle W]

25 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I will send an email later this morning. It is inconceivable that more than 50% of the precipitation (all of which fell after 4:30) did not accumulate. It's more likely that the Conservancy measurer called it a day after the first measurement and was unavailable to take another measurement. 

what I don't understand is how the people in charge of noaa don't see the mistake themselves?...they are asleep also...

[MJO812]

JB is saying how the Jan 25-March 25 period might be wildest winter pattern in the east since 1978

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, uncle W said:

how many times can we say it's a disgrace?...they have 0.6 in their climate data...I knew that was going to happen...If it's not fixed we can throw out all the snowfall records and start again...

If it were up to me, I would give you and Don an unlimited budget to correct all the NYC temperature and snowfall problems.

[donsutherland1]

Now that yesterday’s snowfall is behind us, a difficult period of sustained warmth and little or no snowfall prospects lies ahead for the New York City area and larger northern Mid-Atlantic region. The potential exists for numerous 50° or above days, including at least one 60° or above day in NYC.

The average temperature for such a pattern was 37.7°. The average for the full January 16-31, 1950-2016 timeframe was 32.0°.

The forecast pattern had an elevated share of days with high temperatures of 40° or above and 50° or above.

Similar patterns have produced very few measurable snowfall opportunities (4% days in the sample) relative to climatology (14% days in the entire January 16-31, 1950-2016 timeframe).

Finally, it still appears that a pattern change toward colder conditions will develop some time in the closing week of January (timing is still a little uncertain).

[dmillz25]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

JB is saying how the Jan 25-March 25 period might be wildest winter pattern in the east since 1978

The over hype is real lol.

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If it were up to me, I would give you and Don an unlimited budget to correct all the NYC temperature and snowfall problems.

I believe the Conservancy really needs an employee who is committed to professional excellence in all his/her responsibilities, including snow measurement. Quite frankly, with the repeated issues that arise there, I don't think that is the case right now. It's a shame, as the overall climate record's integrity is undermined.

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I believe the Conservancy really needs an employee who is committed to professional excellence in all his/her responsibilities, including snow measurement. Quite frankly, with the repeated issues that arise there, I don't think that is the case right now. It's a shame, as the overall climate record's integrity is undermined.

I agree. If the Conservancy can't handle it, then perhaps there is a local coop observer or volunteer that would take over. Seems like standards have fallen

there for weather observations when the NWS left 30 Rock and the new ASOS was seated improperly.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I believe the Conservancy really needs an employee who is committed to professional excellence in all his/her responsibilities, including snow measurement. Quite frankly, with the repeated issues that arise there, I don't think that is the case right now. It's a shame, as the overall climate record's integrity is undermined.

When i am at Columbia doing snow removal (I wasn't yesterday) I take good measurements and almost always come in well above the parks crap measurement. If I didn't miss small events like yesterday I would volunteer to take more acurrate measurements 

agreed it's getting out of hand.   

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I agree. If the Conservancy can't handle it, then perhaps there is a local coop observer or volunteer that would take over. Seems like standards have fallen

there for weather observations when the NWS left 30 Rock and the new ASOS was seated improperly.

It's a shame this happens but it's not just a NYC thing. We have had major issues at both bwi and DCA for years. Bwi had to change some records even due to problems with measurements.  A few years back some obsessed people even harassed DCA about it and they pretty much cavalierly said they don't take that seriously.  Then there were reports they were measuring on asphalt instead of a snow board.  The people doing this aren't weather freaks like us. They probably don't care and just non chalantly take a measurement and record it. To them it's just snow who cares. 

[danstorm]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If it were up to me, I would give you and Don an unlimited budget to correct all the NYC temperature and snowfall problems.

The NOAA will likely have massive budget cuts coming soon.

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, danstorm said:

The NOAA will likely have massive budget cuts coming soon.

This is something that greatly worries me.

[uncle W]

since the weather bureau moved to Upton and the AOS went into operation the readings in Central Park are suspect at times...

[NycStormChaser]

Has anyone sent a well written email to the NWS Upton and CC the Central Park folks?

[Animal]

52 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

JB is saying how the Jan 25-March 25 period might be wildest winter pattern in the east since 1978

He says the same stuff every winter season.

[bkviking]

59 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

JB is saying how the Jan 25-March 25 period might be wildest winter pattern in the east since 1978

Yeah Jb just being his extremist self. Levi Cowan posted a video yesterday at Tropical Tidbits where his review of SSW events during La Ninas and El Niño's led him to believe the upcoming cold and blocking will not be long lasting. 

[bluewave]

50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's a shame this happens but it's not just a NYC thing. We have had major issues at both bwi and DCA for years. Bwi had to change some records even due to problems with measurements.  A few years back some obsessed people even harassed DCA about it and they pretty much cavalierly said they don't take that seriously.  Then there were reports they were measuring on asphalt instead of a snow board.  The people doing this aren't weather freaks like us. They probably don't care and just non chalantly take a measurement and record it. To them it's just snow who cares. 

It just isn't a priority for them like it is for us.

 

http://www.weather2000.com/ASOS/NYC_ASOS.html

 

Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV

(New York-WABC, August 22, 2003) - Forecasting the weather is not easy.
Government equipment can often be blamed for giving faulty weather
information. As Bill Evans explains, a big culprit may be some of the
equipment buried in Central Park.

Rainfall, snowfall, and the temperature are all vital information
recorded 24 hours a day at the weather station located in the heart of
Central Park.

But meteorologists like Michael Schlacter have serious concerns about the
accuracy of the stations data. It sits amid overgrown vegetation and he
says thats the problem. The leaves can trigger snow gauges and trees can
warp rain and wind measurements. On this hot day, a temperature gauge is
in the shade instead of direct sunlight.

Michael Schlacter, Weather 2000: "Its kind of like driving a car
without a speedometer, odometer, and gas gauge. You are running with
false information."

The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top.
There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an
eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way.

But National Weather Service meteorologists say they knew the weather
readings in the park would never be as keenly accurate as the ones at
the airports where guidelines prevent foliage from being within 100 feet
of the station.

Schlacter: "We knew that at times we would have flaky readings, that
leaves would fall in gauges, that we would have problems with
visibility sensors."

[NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Michael] Wyllie says the weather station is
there because it was historically significant to maintain its presence
in the park.

He says theres been a lot of growth because of the wet spring at so much
in fact that temperatures have routinely been recorded lower in the park
than at the airports.

Wyllie: "We are actually having a micro climate system there because of
the vegetation."

Imperfect perhaps but nonetheless the system provides the official record
of weather for the country's largest city. And Michael Schlacter says
its a city that deserves better.

Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they
deserve the best weather station money can buy."


Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Yeah Jb just being his extremist self. Levi Cowan posted a video yesterday at Tropical Tidbits where his review of SSW events during La Ninas and El Niño's led him to believe the upcoming cold and blocking will not be long lasting. 

Agreed. Also, gonna be hard to muster much wintry weather with the mean PV sliding across the north pole and setting up shop in Siberia.

[mattinpa]

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

Agreed. Also, gonna be hard to muster much wintry weather with the mean PV sliding across the north pole and setting up shop in Siberia.
 

 

Let us get through this mild period before worrying about that. Not only JB is optimistic. PB from here likes the pattern after this period. Plus, even JB can be right sometimes with a bold call.