dWave Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Impressive warmth, still holding well into the 60s. 65 now. Feels like a June night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 +28 departure for my location today. Hit 69.3F. Very impressive. Surges me to +2.2 for January. Could see another sneaky anomalous positive day with a midnight high. Still mid 60s across most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 13, 2017 Author Share Posted January 13, 2017 13 minutes ago, Isotherm said: +28 departure for my location today. Hit 69.3F. Very impressive. Surges me to +2.2 for January. Could see another sneaky anomalous positive day with a midnight high. Still mid 60s across most of the area. Nice. Hit 67 for the high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: Nice. Hit 67 for the high Even more impressive when I was near 0 a couple nights ago. 68 degree temperature delta here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 13, 2017 Author Share Posted January 13, 2017 Just now, Isotherm said: Even more impressive when I was near 0 a couple nights ago. 68 degree temperature delta here. That's insane. Just a meager 52 degree delta here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Still sitting at 54F, forecasted high for tomorrow of 36 so I'm expecting temps to start dropping soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 3 hours ago, PB GFI said: I posted earlier today that after the 17th thru the 24th the 25th 26th is the date in which the heights have retrograded back enough NW into Canada so that the trough develops underneath along the EC. The weeeklies are all in . So instead of just forecasting AN snow for KNYC , I will try to be specific for Feb . My period here is from Jan 28 - Feb 28 at KNYC . I think they see 15 inches of snow . NYC average for Feb is roughly 8 inches , so I think close to 200 % of N falls . Good luck , hope this verifies ..... The KNYC 1981-2010 average for February is 9.2 inches. Right now the 25 year average for 1991-2015 for February at KNYC is 11.5 inches. The next 30 year average, unless there is a severe snow drought the next 5 years should be above 30 inches at KNYC, (it's currently 31.4 inches for the 25 year average 1991-2015) and well above 10 for February. Unless of course we have 4 consecutive winters like 96/97-99/00 Actually if no more snow fell in NYC through December 2020 the 1991-2020 30 year average for Central Park would be 26.7 inches, almost an inch above the 1981-2010 average of 25.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 NYC Feb. decade snow average... decade......................Feb 1870-71 to 1879-80.....8.8 1880-81 to 1889-90.....7.6 1890-91 to 1899-00...10.6 1900-01 to 1909-10.....9.2 1910-11 to 1919-20.....9.5 1920-21 to 1929-30...10.1 1930-31 to 1939-40.....8.5 1940-41 to 1949-50.....8.6 1950-51 to 1959-60.....3.4 1960-61 to 1969-70...10.6 1970-71 to 1979-80.....9.5 1980-81 to 1989-90.....5.3 1990-91 to 1999-00.....9.1 2000-01 to 2009-10...13.3 2010-11 to 2015-16...10.7 1870-71 to 2009-10.....8.9 1980-81 to 2009-10.....9.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, uncle W said: NYC Feb. decade snow average... decade......................Feb 1870-71 to 1879-80.....8.8 1880-81 to 1889-90.....7.6 1890-91 to 1899-00...10.6 1900-01 to 1909-10.....9.2 1910-11 to 1919-20.....9.5 1920-21 to 1929-30...10.1 1930-31 to 1939-40.....8.5 1940-41 to 1949-50.....8.6 1950-51 to 1959-60.....3.4 1960-61 to 1969-70...10.6 1970-71 to 1979-80.....9.5 1980-81 to 1989-90.....5.3 1990-91 to 1999-00.....9.1 2000-01 to 2009-10...13.3 2010-11 to 2015-16...10.7 1870-71 to 2009-10.....8.9 1980-81 to 2009-10.....9.2 You are the freakin best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Midnight high of 58 in central park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Friday is going to have another crazy departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Midnight high of 58 in central park Its currently 63 in CPK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 11 minutes ago, dWave said: Its currently 63 in CPK I'm not seeing a Midnight update yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: I'm not seeing a Midnight update yet I believe it was 62° (17°C). I'm not sure why it didn't post on the three-day observations chart. KNYC 130451Z AUTO VRB05KT 10SM OVC090 17/11 A3010 RMK AO2 SLP182 T01670111 401890083 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 7 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: The KNYC 1981-2010 average for February is 9.2 inches. Right now the 25 year average for 1991-2015 for February at KNYC is 11.5 inches. The next 30 year average, unless there is a severe snow drought the next 5 years should be above 30 inches at KNYC, (it's currently 31.4 inches for the 25 year average 1991-2015) and well above 10 for February. Unless of course we have 4 consecutive winters like 96/97-99/00 Actually if no more snow fell in NYC through December 2020 the 1991-2020 30 year average for Central Park would be 26.7 inches, almost an inch above the 1981-2010 average of 25.8. Pattern reversal Jan 25th. In light of the numbers above , I will keep with the theme of my forecast of 200 % of N and forecast 18 inches of snow in the park. There are multiple big time set ups showing up in the L/R once past the 25th and throughout the month of February . There is a big time February on the way . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Hopefully, this verifies. The only way during recent years that we have seen the extended cold during the winter has been that WPAC forcing west of the DL. That is exactly what the EPS thinks is going to happen after January 25th which carries right through February. A recent study focused on the convection out there in these colder patterns for the Eastern US. Yeh , it tends to lock a POS PNA in . It would be nice to get a full 4 to 6 weeks of winter with multiple events with some extended snowcover . The weeklies went to the extreme and after 2 months of an uncooperative pattern that run was an eye opener . Also there "could be " a strat warm taking place over the next 10 days. There always seems to be differing opinions on this . This event over the last few years has been poorly modeled and seems to be an elusive piece of the puzzle . However I am buying some of the guidance and it has me on board with a great February ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Last night on the 10pm news, Nick Gregory was talking about the possible big pattern change at the end of this month. He was saying how February looks great for snow and cold lovers in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 One things is for sure, the period from late January through the beginning of March has produced some of our biggest winter storms and wildest weather in the past so I am hoping things work out according to plan for cold and storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 hour ago, PB GFI said: Pattern reversal Jan 25th. In light of the numbers above , I will keep with the theme of my forecast of 200 % of N and forecast 18 inches of snow in the park. There are multiple big time set ups showing up in the L/R once past the 25th and throughout the month of February . There is a big time February on the way . enough to put us above average? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Just now, PaEasternWX said: enough to put us above average? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Barring a 12-18 inch event in February, a big question on if places like NYC get above average may depend on if the pattern carries into March. Most of the historical analogs suggest the pattern is going to go mild in March into April or that it probably should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 2007 had a big ao reversal from January to February...1957 and 1983 had big reversals... year.....Jan AO...Feb. AO... 1957...+2.062.....-1.513.....January was colder by a lot... 1983...+1.359.....-1.806.....January was a little colder but February had the big storm... 2007...+2.034.....-1.307.....February was much colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Barring a 12-18 inch event in February, a big question on if places like NYC get above average may depend on if the pattern carries into March. Most of the historical analogs suggest the pattern is going to go mild in March into April or that it probably should. most of the analogs that were neutral or weak negatives had March snowstorms...Only three years had a good February and March...1967, 1993, 1996...Good February's and no March...1979, 2006... Not so great February and but good March... 1960, 1981, 1984, 2004... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: One thing that we know for sure is that January is going to have an increasing departure with the mild pattern coming up. Current departures through the 12th: NYC...+2.8 LGA...+3.9 JFK...+2.8 ISP...+2.1 BDR...+3.6 EWR...+2.8 +4 to +6 easily by end of next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Yesterday saw record temperatures surpassed throughout much of the northern Mid-Atlantic region. At Central Park, the temperature soared to 66°, which broke the previous daily record high temperature of 64° that was set way back in 1890. That reading was also NYC’s warmest January reading since January 6, 2007 when the temperature reached 72°. That reading occurred at the end of an exceptionally warm stretch of weather that gave way to a sustained cold pattern that set in 11 days later. At this point in time, my confidence in the development of a sustained PNA+ pattern in the long-range has increased. The recent dip in the SOI to negative values indicates that the La Niña event continues to fade. Coupled with a PDO+, that should provide conditions that favor a PNA+. The development of a tendency for PNA ridging should also coincide with the return of EPO blocking late this month. Should the EPO- and PNA+ prevail for most of February, one should expect colder anomalies relative to normal than will be the case in January. A colder than normal February would be among the possible scenarios. Some data (February 1981-2010): Mean temperature: 35.7° EPO+: 37.1° EPO-: 34.2° EPO-/PNA+: 33.6° In what seems to have become a relatively infrequent outcome, even CFSv2 is showing a colder than normal February in the East. Details remain to be worked out, but the generally warm stretch of weather (with the brief interruption this weekend) that lies ahead appears increasingly likely to give way to a return of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 14 minutes ago, qg_omega said: +4 to +6 easily by end of next week? My guess is that the monthly anomaly will be around +5° by the end of the 20th. Speaking of the 20th, there's a realistic possibility that the DCA temperature could surpass the high temperature of 62° on 1/20/2013, making Inauguration Day 2017 the warmest on record since the Inauguration was moved to January in 1937. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 50 here right now....So much for falling temps all day.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: 50 here right now....So much for falling temps all day.... Same downtown (KJRB - Wall St). Park at 46F - been pretty steady since this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Bluewave, Isotherm, PB, Forky, Don, others? Do you think the profound lack of sea ice and unusually large areas of open water in the Arctic right now will have material impacts on the pattern going forward? If so, what do you think they'd be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Cool and windy, down to 38F with frequent gust of 15-20Mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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