Stormlover74 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: another model bust on warmth...a few models had close to 60 but nothing in the mid or even upper 60's. Upton had upper 50s for highs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 67 at my station in Sheepshead Bay. Lower 50s in Rockaways right along the water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: British Columbia is the place to be this year....Huge western Canada/western US winter Yeah got some family in Southern BC that have seen around 20-25" for the Winter. YYZ is only at 19.6" for the season. 2.8" for January (avg. is 12.2"). Worst climo. It ain't our Winter, its a Western NA Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: I believe the 30 year average is pushing 29". Not bad. Would love to experience a Nor'Easter! I usually come every year to NYC but only in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 65 here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 5 hours ago, PB GFI said: Great , wasn't sure . Thanks bud . The reality is that most of your forecast is not going to verify. You will bust too cold on temperatures and slightly too high for snowfall. You are again changing the goalposts. Now it's cold from Jan 5-16 instead of Jan 5-20; that way you get the benefit of the colder weekend and lose the longer-term torch pattern. 6-8" of snow may be above normal for 2 weeks, but snowfall always comes in bursts, so you do have to look at the whold month, which looks to finish with near normal snowfall, not way above. Given we had 40" in Feb 2010 and 36" in 4 weeks from Dec 26, 2010-Jan 27, 2011, this doesn't look impressive. And the idea of an interlude of wintry atmosphere did not materialize since snow cover disappeared in 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 Up to 67 here. January 12th or May 12th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Select High Temperatures through 3 pm: Atlantic City: 67° (Old record: 63°, 1913) Baltimore: 70° (Tied record set in 1890) Boston: 61° (Tied record set in 1975) Bridgeport: 54° (Old record: 52°, 1980) Dover: 68° (Tied record set in 1975) Harrisburg: 61° (Old record: 60°, 1890) New Haven: 50° (Tied record set in 2006 and tied in 2008 and 2014) New York City (JFK): 61° (Old record: 60°, 1975) New York City (LGA): 67° (Old record: 60°, 1975) New York City (NYC): 65° (Old record: 64°, 1890) Providence: 59° (Tied record set in 1975) Salisbury: 67° (Old record: 63°, 1995, 2005, and 2013) Teterboro: 66° (Old record: 60°, 2006) Trenton: 65° (Old record: 58°, 2006) White Plains: 63° (Old record: 55°, 1975 and 2006) Wilmington: 67° (Old record: 63°, 1913) Worcester: 57° (Old record: 55°, 1980) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, nzucker said: 6-8" of snow may be above normal for 2 weeks, but snowfall always comes in bursts, This is true as well, and a major reason why I generally stick to monthly time frames for snowfall anomalies (and temps for that matter). With snowfall, one event will put us above normal in a 2 week period given our averages aren't terribly high anyway. When one takes a monthly snapshot, I think that provides a much clearer picture of the overall pattern for the month. In the case of this January, it will go down as very warm with one ephemeral interval of snow. Slightly below to slightly above normal snowfall depending upon where one lives. All in all, the January window was similar in duration to December's, but slightly better in terms of snowfall. The radiational cooling helped suburbia out for impressive lows for 2 nights but the urban temps were unimpressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 53 here w/ on and off light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Current temp is 65 here, very warm day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Just for fun, I took the years from which daily record high temperatures were tied or broken today from a variety of cities in the Northeast and then looked at the February snowfall in New York City. The years were 1890, 1913, 1975, 1980, 1995, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2013, and 2014. From those ten cases, February snowfall was as follows: < 4”: 3 cases 6” or more: 7 cases 10” or more: 6 cases 15” or more: 3 cases 20” or more: 2 cases Least: 1.0", 1890 Most: 29.0", 2014 If there’s anything to be gleaned from today’s record warmth, such warmth does not suggest that February won’t be snowy. There still is no reason to write off the remainder of winter, even as most of the next 12-18 days could witness above and even much above normal readings (with possibly another 60° or warmer reading in and around NYC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 57° currently with mostly cloudy skies. Beautiful day ignoring the rain from earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 This is what makes predicting a below normal month so difficult. NYC added 2 degrees to their monthly departure from 1 exceptionally warm day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 27 minutes ago, nzucker said: The reality is that most of your forecast is not going to verify. You will bust too cold on temperatures and slightly too high for snowfall. You are again changing the goalposts. Now it's cold from Jan 5-16 instead of Jan 5-20; that way you get the benefit of the colder weekend and lose the longer-term torch pattern. 6-8" of snow may be above normal for 2 weeks, but snowfall always comes in bursts, so you do have to look at the whold month, which looks to finish with near normal snowfall, not way above. Given we had 40" in Feb 2010 and 36" in 4 weeks from Dec 26, 2010-Jan 27, 2011, this doesn't look impressive. And the idea of an interlude of wintry atmosphere did not materialize since snow cover disappeared in 3 days. He might bust too high but the period from latr January into February looks very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: He might bust too high but the period from latr January into February looks very good. It does and hopefully it will happen. But for now, we're only shoveling potential 10- 15 days out. Models looked good for longer stronger cold going into both December and January and backed off big time as we got closer. Let's hope the signal is real this time and we don't end up with another isle of cold in a sea of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Late January and February look amazing on the models and you can feel the atmosphere is very volatile where weather is very extreme. In other words I would categorize this winter as all or nothing winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 minute ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Late January and February look amazing on the models and you can feel the atmosphere is very volatile where weather is very extreme. In other words I would categorize this winter as all or nothing winter. Can you post those examples? I don't have the expertise or access that you have, but it would be interesting to see. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 3:16 PM, nzucker said: The reality is that most of your forecast is not going to verify. You will bust too cold on temperatures and slightly too high for snowfall. You are again changing the goalposts. Now it's cold from Jan 5-16 instead of Jan 5-20; that way you get the benefit of the colder weekend and lose the longer-term torch pattern. 6-8" of snow may be above normal for 2 weeks, but snowfall always comes in bursts, so you do have to look at the whold month, which looks to finish with near normal snowfall, not way above. Given we had 40" in Feb 2010 and 36" in 4 weeks from Dec 26, 2010-Jan 27, 2011, this doesn't look impressive. And the idea of an interlude of wintry atmosphere did not materialize since snow cover disappeared in 3 days. Dude , I don`t know what to tell you AN snow in a 2 week period verified . You can`t extrapolate AN to mean record breaking . 7 has fallen at most airports around NYC up to 12 fell East . AN has verified/ Tom agrees . I think I posted the 17 - 20 may cook the 5 - 20 call , but the 5 - 16 period was a nice do . 12z EURO for this weekend . 12z ERUO KNYC 1/14 Sat 32/22 1/15 Sun 40/25 1/16 Mon 38/28 So the idea of a cutter then a H showing back up also worked out . The forecast was made on Dec 27/28 - I like it , I am sorry you don`t . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 65 at NYC 66 at EWR 67 at LGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 For context, it should be noted that longer-range forecasting e.g., forecasting beyond 7-10 days is exceptionally challenging. Even identifying warmer/cooler than normal periods and/or wet/dry periods without getting details such as actual high temperatures with much precision is an accomplishment. That degree of difficulty should be taken into consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: For context, it should be noted that longer-range forecasting e.g., forecasting beyond 7-10 days is exceptionally challenging. Even identifying warmer/cooler than normal periods and/or wet/dry periods without getting details such as actual high temperatures with much precision is an accomplishment. That degree of difficulty should be taken into consideration. I agree Don , most of the ideas start on the first few pages and then really go into detail on page 15. Alot of which came close enough specifically the AN temps now and then the H coming back in a place where a huge ridge was forecast , the 2 waves 1 of which ended up 6 to 10 from the city E . So if a 20 day call falls 4 days short no one should care but me . Going foward my +2 for Jan will prob fall very short , but I will take that considering what I am seeing for after the 25th . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 11 minutes ago, PB GFI said: I agree Don , most of the ideas start on the first few pages and then really go into detail on page 15. Alot of which came close enough specifically the AN temps now and then the H coming back in a place where a huge ridge was forecast , the 2 waves 1 of which ended up 6 to 10 from the city E . So if a 20 day call falls 4 days short no one should care but me . Going foward my +2 for Jan will prob fall very short , but I will take that considering what I am seeing for after the 25th . Keep up the great job Paul. Always cool to read your insight and predictions on upcoming patterns. I'm glad you came back. I learn a lot from you, and several other posters on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Central Park's high temperature today was 66°, which set a new record for the date. It was also NYC's warmest January temperature since January 6, 2007 when the mercury reached 72°. Strong blocking developed as that January progressed and February had a monthly anomaly of 6.3° below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Euro weeklies say game on for February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: For context, it should be noted that longer-range forecasting e.g., forecasting beyond 7-10 days is exceptionally challenging. Even identifying warmer/cooler than normal periods and/or wet/dry periods without getting details such as actual high temperatures with much precision is an accomplishment. That degree of difficulty should be taken into consideration. Agreed, I called for +2 to +4 back in November for December and January... Easier to do given the background teleconections and the above normal regime we are in, snowfall is much harder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 January 1967 had a huge thaw near the end of the month...it hit 70 in Freehold at the height of it...less than two weeks later there was 15" of snow on the ground with single digit temperatures...this year the thaw came early...it could be over by the end of the month...I think we still haven't seen the arctic oscillation hit it's winters low point...I think it could happen in February and or March...how long it stays negative will determine how long the cold sticks around before the next thawing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 3 hours ago, bluewave said: EPS weeklies going for a full scale pattern change after January 25th right into February. Trigger for +PNA pattern appears to be weakening La Nina and increase in convection west of the Dateline. The only cold in the entire Northern Hemisphere well into February is over focused the Eastern US. Hopefully, this pattern verifies. I posted earlier today that after the 17th thru the 24th the 25th 26th is the date in which the heights have retrograded back enough NW into Canada so that the trough develops underneath along the EC. The weeeklies are all in . So instead of just forecasting AN snow for KNYC , I will try to be specific for Feb . My period here is from Jan 28 - Feb 28 at KNYC . I think they see 15 inches of snow . NYC average for Feb is roughly 8 inches , so I think close to 200 % of N falls . Good luck , hope this verifies ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 In the meantime I hope we are not getting too hopped up over this 250m drop in the 500mb THK, (which seems to put us in 2 days, exactly where we will also be again in 15 days) good for about a 20 degs. decrease at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 13, 2017 Author Share Posted January 13, 2017 27 minutes ago, PB GFI said: I posted earlier today that after the 17th thru the 24th the 25th is the date in which the heights have retrograded back enough NW into Canada so that the trough develops underneath along the EC. The weeeklies are all in . So instead of just forecasting AN snow for KNYC , I will try to be specific for Feb . My period here is from Jan 28 - Feb 28 at KNYC . I think they see 15 inches of snow . NYC average for Feb is roughly 8 inches , so I think close to 200 % of N falls . Good luck , hope this verifies ..... If the pattern comes to fruition, I think 20" give or take. An archambault event can occur with these big pattern changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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