Morris Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 64 in the park. record tied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 64 right now in Point Pleasant Beach-waiting for a seabreeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 65 here in bed stuy Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 65 here in Jersey City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 68 in bed stuy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Through 1 pm: Tied Daily Record: Boston, Bridgeport, New York City (Central Park), and Providence Broke Daily Record: Atlantic City, Newark, New York City (JFK and LGA), White Plains, Wilmington, and Worcester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 64 with some breaks of sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 59° here. When the sun comes out it actually feels hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Eating lunch outside. Glorious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr461 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 60, mostly cloudy with occasional breaks of sun.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: In October, Eurasian snow cover expanded at its fastest rate since 2014 according to the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab data. In theory, that should indicate a predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) during the winter. Instead, 37 of the first 43 days (86%) of meteorological winter have seen positive AO values, including 27 (63%) with values of +1.000 or above. This marks the 3rd consecutive year that the supposed connection between changes in October Eurasian snow cover and the predominant state of the AO have not been consistent. This raises the question as to whether the relationship is much weaker than had previously appeared. It also raises a question as to whether rapid expansion of Eurasian snow cover is the result of the October AO, not the driver of the October AO. After examining Eurasian snow cover data and the AO, my conclusions are as follows: • The connections between October Eurasian snow cover and the predominant winter AO and between the change in October Eurasian snow cover and the predominant winter AO are weak (statistically little different from climatology). • The increase in Eurasian October snow cover is much more likely the result of the predominant state of the October AO than a driver of the October AO, even as some second order effects may be present. 90% of the cases that saw Eurasian snow cover increase by 0.5σ or more above average in October were associated with a negative AO. However, the negative AO was also present in 46% of cases when Eurasian snow cover increased by 0.5σ or more below average in October. Were changes in Eurasian October snow cover the driver, one should have seen much fewer AO- cases when such snow cover increased at a much slower rate than normal. The sample period was 1970-2015 for Eurasian snow cover averages and 1972-2015 (1971 data was missing for September) for the October change in Eurasian snow cover. In sum, the data suggest that Eurasian snow cover or changes in Eurasian snow cover in October provide little meaningful insight into the predominant state of the winter (December-February) AO. Just taking the October AO value and assuming that it would reflect the predominant winter AO state fared no worse. Therefore, the seeming decoupling of the snow cover changes and the winter AO are very likely not exceptional cases, but the norm. Put another way, the Rutgers snow data and the CPC AO data suggest that, at present, Eurasian snow cover or changes in such snow cover during October (also November) are not statistically better than climatology when it comes to trying to forecast the predominant winter state of the AO. This does not mean that there is no correlation. It only means that use of Eurasian snow cover data is not much more skillful than climatology when it comes to forecasting the predomiant winter AO. Data Sources: AO: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table Eurasian Snow Cover: http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_area.php?ui_set=1 Some tables: So are you arguing that Dr. Cohen's prior studies are largely flawed insofar as the correlation between the October snow increase and subsequent winter AO? My personal opinion is that there exists a correlation, but it is substantially weaker than hypothesized by Dr. Cohen. Even the physical mechanism whereby the precursor Oct snow cover influences the ensuing winter is believable - the meteorological pathways make sense. The problem I have is that the method doesn't account for other variables which may constructively or destructively interfere, thereby either muting or enhancing the SAI signal. For example, in a winter with auspicious exogenous conditions, i.e., low solar constant /aP and -QBO, a favorable SAI will more likely succeed. In other words, I think the SAI probably only explains approximately 0.4 or less of the wintertime stratospheric vortex variability. The other components are possibly tropospheric wave driving during winter, QBO, solar, tropical forcing, among other concealed factors. Bottom line is I believe the SAI is a tool and only a tool, certainly not the be all end all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Isotherm said: So are you arguing that Dr. Cohen's prior studies are largely flawed insofar as the correlation between the October snow increase and subsequent winter AO? My personal opinion is that there exists a correlation, but it is substantially weaker than hypothesized by Dr. Cohen. Even the physical mechanism whereby the precursor Oct snow cover influences the ensuing winter is believable - the meteorological pathways make sense. The problem I have is that the method doesn't account for other variables which may constructively or destructively interfere, thereby either muting or enhancing the SAI signal. For example, in a winter with auspicious exogenous conditions, i.e., low solar constant /aP and -QBO, a favorable SAI will more likely succeed. In other words, I think the SAI probably only explains approximately 0.4 or less of the wintertime stratospheric vortex variability. The other components are possibly tropospheric wave driving during winter, QBO, solar, tropical forcing, among other concealed factors. Bottom line is I believe the SAI is a tool and only a tool, certainly not the be all end all. No. I'm suggesting that the correlation is sufficiently weak that numerous other variables can offset the signal. By itself, one can't use SAI to make skillful forecasts of the AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Possible El Nino by the end of January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Possible El Nino by the end of January? Pattern maybe lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Possible El Nino by the end of January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: No. I'm suggesting that the correlation is sufficiently weak that numerous other variables can offset the signal. By itself, one can't use SAI to make skillful forecasts of the AO. That is what I thought. As explained above, I agree. But Dr. Cohen would disagree with our viewpoints (that was my point), as he clearly believes it is sufficient in and of itself. I think empirical data demonstrates otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 NYC just set a new record today. At 143 pm, the temp reached 65. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, Morris said: NYC just set a new record today. At 143 pm, the temp reached 65. Woo hoo!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, Isotherm said: That is what I thought. As explained above, I agree. But Dr. Cohen would disagree with our viewpoints (that was my point), as he clearly believes it is sufficient in and of itself. I think empirical data demonstrates otherwise. From reading his blog, his position may be evolving somewhat. He has been incorporating more information about Arctic sea ice in the Barents-Kara Seas region this year. For example, in his most recent blog entry, he observed: Recent research has shown that regional anomalies are important and the sea ice region most highly correlated with the winter AO is the Barents-Kara seas region where low Arctic sea ice favors a negative winter AO and cold Eurasian temperatures. Low sea ice in the Barents-Kara Seas is also thought to contribute to a weakened polar vortex/negative AO mid to late winter. In contrast sea ice anomalies on the North Pacific side of the Arctic have not been shown to perturb the stratospheric PV but are thought to be favorable for forcing cold temperatures in Canada and the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 71 at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 another model bust on warmth...a few models had close to 60 but nothing in the mid or even upper 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Wow 66 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 26 minutes ago, Morris said: NYC just set a new record today. At 143 pm, the temp reached 65. Wow!! Temperature only peaked at 46F here at 2am last night. The last time it was 65F here was Nov 2nd, lol. But thats in line with climbo anyways. Just like you guys, it hasn't been a glorious winter by any means here in Toronto either. 4th rain storm in a row now. Disaster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 64. Winter is overrated anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 65 is the average high for April 27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 How much snow does NYC average per Winter? And by month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Wow!! Temperature only peaked at 46F here at 2am last night. The last time it was 65F here was Nov 2nd, lol. But thats in line with climbo anyways. Just like you guys, it hasn't been a glorious winter by any means here in Toronto either. 4th rain storm in a row now. Disaster! British Columbia is the place to be this year....Huge western Canada/western US winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: another model bust on warmth...a few models had close to 60 but nothing in the mid or even upper 60's. 59 here currently. Point and click forecast has a high of 59 IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Snowstorms said: How much snow does NYC average per Winter? And by month? I believe the 30 year average is pushing 29". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.