January 2017 Discussion & Observations

[JerseyWx]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 0z NAM MOS, which greatly undershot today's readings, now shows a 60° high temperature for NYC tomorrow. The last time January saw a high temperature of 60° or above was January 31, 2013 when the temperature reached 61°. 

Nice stat Don.  I think we have a chance at a 60° reading tomorrow in a few spots.

[SnowGoose69]

00Z NAM was north with the Sat/Sun event.  May jut be the NAM but I expected for over a day now that this would end up moving north from the MA.  The tendency all winter has been for no suppression and these events usually tick north anyway. 

[Spanks45]

13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

00Z NAM was north with the Sat/Sun event.  May jut be the NAM but I expected for over a day now that this would end up moving north from the MA.  The tendency all winter has been for no suppression and these events usually tick north anyway. 

The GFS looks a bit healthier too...

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Interior winter

20+" on my way to a decent one I'd say

[NortheastPAWx]

0.34", 45.

60+ would be no shocker for tomorrow. The warmest day always winds up underdone by models.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

.36" total so far steady rain still falling

[dmillz25]

Already 55 here. 60 is a given. Maybe 65?

[Allsnow]

Feels like a spring morning 

[NJwx85]

The birds are chirping here lol

[PB GFI]

Once to  SAT SUN MON  NYC is back  BN.

The initial warm up is 3 days , then another cold H shows up just in time for the weekend and SAT SUN MON are back BN getting us to the 16th .

Then the real warm up is a full 7 day period , 17 - 24 . 

After the 25th we will evolve into a much better winter period / s that we have seen so far this year.

I expect February to be our coldest and snowiest month of the season. Hopefully after another AN month in January  that will not be too difficult to achieve. 

 

[nzucker]

4 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Once to  SAT SUN MON  NYC is back  BN.

The initial warm up is 3 days , then another cold H shows up just in time for the weekend and SAT SUN MON are back BN getting us to the 16th .

Then the real warm up is a full 7 day period , 17 - 24 . 

After the 25th we will evolve into a much better winter period / s that we have seen so far this year.

I expect February to be our coldest and snowiest month of the season. Hopefully after another AN month in January  that will not be too difficult to achieve. 

 

Jan 5-present has a -24F combined surplus, most of which will be wiped out today. It may be very difficult to keep the Jan 5-20 period below normal in temps as you predicted. 

Also, I've had 6" snowfall this month, most of which melted in 2-3 days. The idea of above normal snowfall looks like it could be in jeopardy, too, except for LI/SE CT where Wave 2 dropped 10"...

[PB GFI]

22 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Jan 5-present has a -24F combined surplus, most of which will be wiped out today. It may be very difficult to keep the Jan 5-20 period below normal in temps as you predicted. 

Also, I've had 6" snowfall this month, most of which melted in 2-3 days. The idea of above normal snowfall looks like it could be in jeopardy, too, except for LI/SE CT where Wave 2 dropped 10"...

 

There were a total of 3 chances of the snow in this 15 day period  , 2 waves and maybe some over running this weekened .

7 to 12 inches of snow have  already fallen from NYC east and that is AN inside a 15 day , PERIOD.  The monthly average at KNYC in January is 7 inches we achieved that in 15 days , so weighting tht in only 2 weeks we doubled our average in the period .

So the snow portion verified.

No talk of snowcover here ,  not in my forecast .

10 inches for me in CN so far , with 2 nights near 0 . some S and E did even better .

Now temps once to the 16th NYC will likely have seen 9 out of 12 days BN , so the calls of 5 days of transient have already busted.

Jan 5 - 16 is guaranteed to finish BN and if 3 days blow the extended portion of it I am more than happy with a forecast made on Dec 27 .

After that the real warm up is only 7 days not the milti week torch that was advertised in early Jan.

Now once to Jan 25 we will flip back and most here should do well in February. 

 

[SnowGoose69]

-NAO showed up on the last few GFS/GEFS runs...eventually it has to actually occur right?  Then again everyone kept thinking this from 1990-1994

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

There were a total of 3 chances of the snow in this 15 day period  , 2 waves and maybe some over running this weekened .

7 to 12 inches of snow have  already fallen from NYC east and that is AN inside a 15 day , PERIOD.  The monthly average at KNYC in January is 7 inches we achieved that in 15 days , so weighting tht in only 2 weeks we doubled our average in the period .

So the snow portion verified.

No talk of snowcover here ,  not in my forecast .

10 inches for me in CN so far , with 2 nights near 0 . some S and E did even better .

Now temps once to the 16th NYC will likely have seen 9 out of 12 days BN , so the calls of 5 days of transient have already busted.

Jan 5 - 16 is guaranteed to finish BN and if 3 days blow the extended portion of it I am more than happy with a forecast made on Dec 27 .

After that the real warm up is only 7 days not the milti week torch that was advertised in early Jan.

Now once to Jan 25 we will flip back and most here should do well in February. 

 

 

Have to politely disagree with you about the duration of the cold. The 5 day call for transient cold was spot on which ended on the 9th or 10th.

The mild pattern we are in now which will carry past the 20th began on the 10th or 11th depending on your exact location. A cold departure

day in the mix on Saturday with a chance of some snow would be a fortunate break in the midst of a mild pattern. It would'nt be the first

time we picked up snow in an otherwise sea of warm if it verifies.

 

[PB GFI]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

Have to politely disagree with you about the duration of the cold. The 5 day call for transient cold was spot on which ended on the 9th.

The mild pattern we are in now which will carry past the 20th began on the 10th or 11th depending on your exact location. A cold departure

day in the mix on Saturday with a chance of some snow would be a fortunate break in the midst of a mild pattern. It would'nt be the first

time we picked up snow in an otherwise sea of warm if it verifies.

 

 

The call of a split in the period due to a cutter with another H showing up through Minnesota was spot on Sun Mon are BN . So its likely 8 out of 12 and the 5 -16 finish BN .

We cant ignore a cold weekend coming up .

If the final 3 or 4 days take the 15 day period over , I am ok with what I forecasted.

After that I have no issue with a torch 17 thru 24 .

 

After that winter returns .

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

The call of a split in the period due to a cutter with another H showing up through Minnesota was spot on Sun Mon are BN . So its likely 8 out of 12 and the 5 -16 finish BN .

We cant ignore a cold weekend coming up .

If the final 3 or 4 days take the 15 day period over , I am ok with what I forecasted.

After that I have no issue with a torch 17 thru 24 .

 

After that winter returns .

Any cold coming up on Saturday will be closer to seasonal and not part of the Arctic shot that just ended. The greater story

is the near record highs today coming so soon after a transient Arctic shot. There will be places that had lows near or

below zero around the region that reach 60 or higher. That is as extreme as it gets for temperature rebounds around the region.

 

NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK
 KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   1/12/2017  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 THU  12| FRI 13| SAT 14| SUN 15| MON 16| TUE 17| WED 18| THU 19 CLIMO
 X/N  61| 44  49| 26  37| 28  43| 29  40| 38  49| 46  53| 48  57 24 38

 

 

[PB GFI]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Any cold coming up on Saturday will be closer to seasonal and not part of the Arctic shot that just ended. The greater story

is the near record highs today coming so soon after a transient Arctic shot. There will be places that had lows near or

below zero around the region that reach 60 or higher. That is as extreme as it gets for temperature rebounds around the region.

 

 

 

 

BN is BN , so the weekend H gets its due because it slices into the exacty when the torch was beginnig.

This H was talked about sliding through because there was a -EPO/WPO .

That 1050 high is anomalous as 60 around here .

 

There is a real true warm up coming it is 7 days of uninterrupted plus 8 to 10s.

Should be nice , but we steal 3 more days of winter sat sun mon where some places N and W will not get out of the 20s and the city in the low 30s.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

JMA weeklies are now on board with the other guidance weakening the La Nina forcing around January 25th allowing more of a +PNA.

But like the other guidance, they have a very mild +EPO pattern until we get there. This will probably be one of the greatest magnitude

EPO reversals for the month of January going from -390 range to nearly +390.

 

Based on the above numbers, I took a look at the EPO (January 1948-2016).

The biggest January reversal of any kind was 838.93 meters in 1980. During the 1948-2016 period, there were five cases where the EPO rose 600 or more meters from the monthly minimum: 1973, 1974, 1980, 1988, 1993.

I then looked at the February EPO, as I believe the back-and-forth swing for periods of EPO- to EPO+ will likely continue. Here's what I found:

Anomalies:
Negative: 51% days
100 or more meters below normal: 27% days
Positive: 49% days
100 or more meters above normal: 27% days

Highest percentage of positive anomalies: February 1974, 93% days

Highest percentage of negative anomalies: February 1993, 79% days

The other three cases were remarkably similar in terms of the share of positive and negative EPO anomalies.

Overall, despite the dizzying rise in the EPO that is forecast, I don't have much reason right now to abandon my thinking concerning the evolution of the EPO and reawakening of winter beginning in late January.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

7 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

BN is BN , so the weekend H gets its due because it slices into the exacty when the torch was beginnig.

This H was talked about sliding through because there was a -EPO/WPO .

That 1050 high is anomalous as 60 around here .

 

There is a real true warm up coming it is 7 days of uninterrupted plus 8 to 10s.

Should be nice , but we steal 3 more days of winter sat sun mon where some places N and W will not get out of the 20s and the city in the low 30s.

High temps in the low 30's this time of year in the city is 5 degrees BN. Big F'n deal, followed by a solid 10 days of 10 degrees AN. Where's the balance? 19 months in a row of this crap.

I know should be in banter, I couldn't help myself.

[PB GFI]

9 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

High temps in the low 30's this time of year in the city is 5 degrees BN. Big F'n deal, followed by a solid 10 days of 10 degrees AN. Where's the balance? 19 months in a row of this crap.

I know should be in banter, I couldn't help myself.

There is no balance . Those days are over .

Maybe just maybe February has a shot of breaking the stretch , but it will not start a trend.

 

When the models had a huge weekend paint bomb from 10 days ago and you forecast a H to slip through and extend the period its only a good forecast .

Then It is 7 days of well AN , then the pattern changes after the 25th .

[Isotherm]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

Have to politely disagree with you about the duration of the cold. The 5 day call for transient cold was spot on which ended on the 9th or 10th.

The mild pattern we are in now which will carry past the 20th began on the 10th or 11th depending on your exact location. A cold departure

day in the mix on Saturday with a chance of some snow would be a fortunate break in the midst of a mild pattern. It would'nt be the first

time we picked up snow in an otherwise sea of warm if it verifies.

 

 

Agree with blue and nzucker here. Yesterday was above normal, so we flipped really overnight on the 10th. This was congruous with our expectations. January should be a +3 or greater month. My thoughts going forward:

Thus far, the incoming wave-2 as a consequence of the tropospheric precursor pattern will be insufficient in inducing a zonal reversal; however, it will depress the vortex into a more near normal state relative to the time of year. This will make it more susceptible to future attacks, with a slightly off-pole vortex displacement, the vortex may succumb under a more potent wave-1 convergence which should peak in the second week of February. I still maintain the pattern is generally too warm for a coastal snowstorm in late January, and it's pseudo -NAO blocking initially. The higher heights are a response from the deep GOAK vortex upstream, and potentially some downwelling via the Canadian stratospheric warming.

Until then, furnace ensues for the next couple weeks. January should finish +3 or greater. Not yet convinced we achieve protracted, severe blocking in the NAO/AO domains, but I do believe the pattern will improve in the Pacific coupled with some -NAO blocking in response to Pacific changes.

[PB GFI]

5 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

Agree with blue and nzucker here. Yesterday was above normal, so we flipped really overnight on the 10th. This was congruous with our expectations. January should be a +3 or greater month. My thoughts going forward:

Thus far, the incoming wave-2 as a consequence of the tropospheric precursor pattern will be insufficient in inducing a zonal reversal; however, it will depress the vortex into a more near normal state relative to the time of year. This will make it more susceptible to future attacks, with a slightly off-pole vortex displacement, the vortex may succumb under a more potent wave-1 convergence which should peak in the second week of February. I still maintain the pattern is generally too warm for a coastal snowstorm in late January, and it's pseudo -NAO blocking initially. The higher heights are a response from the deep GOAK vortex upstream, and potentially some downwelling via the Canadian stratospheric warming.

Until then, furnace ensues for the next couple weeks. January should finish +3 or greater. Not yet convinced we achieve protracted, severe blocking in the NAO/AO domains, but I do believe the pattern will improve in the Pacific coupled with some -NAO blocking in response to Pacific changes.

 

Tom , you agree that we didnt achieve AN snow for the period ? 

 

Temps aside , you agreed with that ? 

[Isotherm]

4 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Tom , you agree that we didnt achieve AN snow for the period ? 

 

Temps aside , you agreed with that ? 

 

If the barometer against which you are measuring is above normal snowfall for the 10 or so day period, I agree, that call verified. I was mostly referring to my call and blue of the warmth returning post 10th which is also verifying.

[PB GFI]

Just now, Isotherm said:

 

If the barometer against which you are measuring is above normal snowfall for the 10 or so day period, I agree, that call verified. I was mostly referring my call and blue of the warmth returning post 10th which is also verifying.

Great , wasn't sure .

Thanks bud .

 

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

Agree with blue and nzucker here. Yesterday was above normal, so we flipped really overnight on the 10th. This was congruous with our expectations. January should be a +3 or greater month. My thoughts going forward:

Thus far, the incoming wave-2 as a consequence of the tropospheric precursor pattern will be insufficient in inducing a zonal reversal; however, it will depress the vortex into a more near normal state relative to the time of year. This will make it more susceptible to future attacks, with a slightly off-pole vortex displacement, the vortex may succumb under a more potent wave-1 convergence which should peak in the second week of February. I still maintain the pattern is generally too warm for a coastal snowstorm in late January, and it's pseudo -NAO blocking initially. The higher heights are a response from the deep GOAK vortex upstream, and potentially some downwelling via the Canadian stratospheric warming.

Until then, furnace ensues for the next couple weeks. January should finish +3 or greater. Not yet convinced we achieve protracted, severe blocking in the NAO/AO domains, but I do believe the pattern will improve in the Pacific coupled with some -NAO blocking in response to Pacific changes.

With the exception of the record AO reversal from positive to negative last winter and ensuing historic blizzard, most of our snowfall opportunities since the 

12-13 winter ended have been -EPO or +PNA driven. If we get any help from the AO or NAO regions later this winter, then we can just consider it a bonus.

Looks like guidance wants to focus primary post January 25 blocking in the +PNA region to start. We'll see where we can take things from there in regard

to duration and extent of the blocking.

[MJO812]

DT

 

"Watch Early February for possible big eastern US winter storm... If MJO does go into phase  8 in neutral enso signal is very strong for BOOM"

[PB GFI]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

With the exception of the record AO reversal from positive to negative last winter and ensuing historic blizzard, most of our snowfall opportunities since the 

12-13 winter ended have been -EPO or +PNA driven. If we get any help from the AO or NAO regions later, then we can just consider it a bonus.

Looks like guidance wants to focus primary post January 25 blocking in the +PNA region to start. We'll see where we can take from there in regard

to duration and extent of the blocking.

 

After the 25th  , prob early FEB we are likely to see a more protracted period of cold and widespread snows if the below is to be believed . 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[pazzo83]

1 hour ago, PB GFI said:

 

There were a total of 3 chances of the snow in this 15 day period  , 2 waves and maybe some over running this weekened .

7 to 12 inches of snow have  already fallen from NYC east and that is AN inside a 15 day , PERIOD.  The monthly average at KNYC in January is 7 inches we achieved that in 15 days , so weighting tht in only 2 weeks we doubled our average in the period .

So the snow portion verified.

No talk of snowcover here ,  not in my forecast .

10 inches for me in CN so far , with 2 nights near 0 . some S and E did even better .

Now temps once to the 16th NYC will likely have seen 9 out of 12 days BN , so the calls of 5 days of transient have already busted.

Jan 5 - 16 is guaranteed to finish BN and if 3 days blow the extended portion of it I am more than happy with a forecast made on Dec 27 .

After that the real warm up is only 7 days not the milti week torch that was advertised in early Jan.

Now once to Jan 25 we will flip back and most here should do well in February. 

 

KNYC has recorded 6.3" of snow this month.  The January average is 7", so we're still below normal for the entire month at this point.  I don't think you can assume that snowfall is evenly distributed throughout the month for the averages.

[pazzo83]

1 hour ago, PB GFI said:

 

The call of a split in the period due to a cutter with another H showing up through Minnesota was spot on Sun Mon are BN . So its likely 8 out of 12 and the 5 -16 finish BN .

We cant ignore a cold weekend coming up .

If the final 3 or 4 days take the 15 day period over , I am ok with what I forecasted.

After that I have no issue with a torch 17 thru 24 .

 

After that winter returns .

Upton has us of one day below normal this weekend, so I don't see how you can justify continuing the prior streak of cold to this coming Saturday.

The forecast for Manhattan from Upton...

 

Friday 0 % Precip. / 0 in

Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

Friday Night 0 % Precip. / 0 in

Partly cloudy in the evening...then becoming mostly cloudy. Cooler with lows in the mid 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

If that checks out, Friday will be an AN day.

 

Saturday 20 % Precip. / 0 in

Cloudy. A chance of light snow...mainly in the afternoon. Cooler with highs in the lower 30s. Northeast winds around 5 mph...becoming southeast in the afternoon. Chance of snow 50 percent.

Saturday Night 40 % Precip. / --

Mostly cloudy. A chance of light snow in the evening. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of snow 50 percent.

This day should be a couple degrees BN.

 

Sunday 10 % Precip. / 0 in

Sunny. Highs around 40.

Sunday Night 0 % Precip. / 0 in

Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s.

Back to slightly above (avg temps for 1/15 is 38/27)

[PB GFI]

2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

KNYC has recorded 6.3" of snow this month.  The January average is 7", so we're still below normal for the entire month at this point.  I don't think you can assume that snowfall is evenly distributed throughout the month for the averages.

 

NYC averages 7 inches of snow for the month . If you make a 15 day forecast and predict AN snow will fall inside that period , than anything above 50 % of N is AN .

Now that was agreed with by TOM and any objectivity .

 

A 2 week forecast is just that .