January 2017 Discussion & Observations

[JerseyWx]

52°

Forecast was 48° and kept increasing until 50° this morning.

[Brian5671]

my davis might be a little high but it's showing 54.

[pazzo83]

50 in the park.

[donsutherland1]

32 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

50 in the park.

Big bust for the 12z NAM MOS (continuing the theme from 0z of its being far too cold):

18z Forecast:

12z NAM MOS: 41° (0z forecast: 38°)

12z GFS MOS: 46° (0z forecast: 48°)

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it looks like we will see some decent positive monthly temperature departures for January by the 25th. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I agree. The signal for warmth around the 1/20 +/- 2 days is quite impressive. Afterward, we'll see how the pattern change unfolds. I still worry that the guidance may be rushing things a little bit and the colder pattern might not be in place until closer to the 31st than the 25th. If so, this would be far from the first case where the guidance was too fast with the pattern change. I still think it's coming, but am less certain about the timing.

[Brian5671]

31 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Big bust for the 12z NAM MOS (continuing the theme from 0z of its being far too cold):

18z Forecast:

12z NAM MOS: 41° (0z forecast: 38°)

12z GFS MOS: 46° (0z forecast: 48°)

amazing how model often bust on the warmth.  If that's the case, tomorrow could really be a torch

[CIK62]

Eastern third or even the eastern half of US are facing some regular 20-40 deg. daily positive deviations during next 16 days for the AM hours.    Not a sign of the BN temps. that seemed possible by the 26th.   Snow deficits in some areas are also fantastic in Canada.    Only  'suicide jockeys' would predict more than the a week of below normal temps. for the remainder of winter.    That cold that was coming looked short lived anyway.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct_anom&rh=2017011112&fh=0&r=conus&dpdt=

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Eastern third or even the eastern half of US are facing some regular 20-40 deg. daily positive deviations during next 16 days for the AM hours.    Not a sign of the BN temps. that seemed possible by the 26th.   Snow deficits in some areas are also fantastic in Canada.    Only  'suicide jockeys' would predict more than the a week of below normal temps. for the remainder of winter.    That cold that was coming looked short lived anyway.

To date, the warmth has won out.  The few times the cold comes you can already see the warmth poised to return.  Basically the opposite of 13-14 and 14-15

[JerseyWx]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

To date, the warmth has won out.  The few times the cold comes you can already see the warmth poised to return.  Basically the opposite of 13-14 and 14-15

Who would have thought that after February 2015 this would be our pattern for nearly two years?

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Who would have thought that after February 2015 this would be our pattern for nearly two years?

[psv88]

51

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Eastern third or even the eastern half of US are facing some regular 20-40 deg. daily positive deviations during next 16 days for the AM hours.    Not a sign of the BN temps. that seemed possible by the 26th.   Snow deficits in some areas are also fantastic in Canada.    Only  'suicide jockeys' would predict more than the a week of below normal temps. for the remainder of winter.    That cold that was coming looked short lived anyway.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct_anom&rh=2017011112&fh=0&r=conus&dpdt=

The remainder of the winter? Comeplete and utter nonsense. Do you have anything to back this up? I agree that January is toast as we can predict with a relative degree of certainty temps out 2 weeks. But the rest of the winter? Next time the powerball or mega millions has a huge jackpot I know who to ask for the winning numbers 

[BombsAway1288]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Only  'suicide jockeys' would predict more than the a week of below normal temps. for the remainder of winter.    That cold that was coming looked short lived anyway.

I don't understand. Is the pattern change not looking so great for the end of the month now? Heard in the NE forum that the EPS looks good for the end of the month. Is it wrong? By the way you're describing it it sounds like winter is over 

[PB GFI]

14 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The remainder of the winter? Comeplete and utter nonsense. Do you have anything to back this up? I agree that January is toast as we can predict with a relative degree of certainty temps out 2 weeks. But the rest of the winter? Next time the powerball or mega millions has a huge jackpot I know who to ask for the winning numbers 

 

Today and tomorrows spike is a 2 day torch followed by Sat Sun Mon which are N to BN

 

 The real torch is 7 to 8 days long  17 - 24 25 .

The trough is back in the M/A around the 25th ish  as the higher heights are rolling back NW into Canada.

We are back in business by months end and do not be shocked if Feb is a really good winter month .

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

19 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

I don't understand. Is the pattern change not looking so great for the end of the month now? Heard in the NE forum that the EPS looks good for the end of the month. Is it wrong? By the way you're describing it it sounds like winter is over 

The ensembles are still indicating a pattern change for late this month. The actual timing might differ a little, but at this time, the pattern change idea after a period of warmth with some brief interruptions, looks real. Nothing significant has changed over the past few days to indicate that the pattern change idea has fallen apart or is falling apart.

[WEATHERBUFF]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

To date, the warmth has won out.  The few times the cold comes you can already see the warmth poised to return.  Basically the opposite of 13-14 and 14-15

The warmth comes because the 1981-2010 averages don't fit for today's climate we are about 2 degrees above that.

[CIK62]

No period has been BN for more than about 7 consecutive days for the last 22 months, while many 15 day periods w/o a BN day have occurred.   One period lasted 35 straight days.   Just 27% of the days of the last 22 months have been normal.    I should be asking you why you think this is going to change at this time!   Trend is your friend.

This terminology of the 'cold is recycling' makes no sense because it is the AN that keeps coming back and predominating.    It is more likely that we will experience a few surprise events like last winter and then call it quits.    Look, a pattern remains in effect till a stronger one replaces it.  Tell me, by what mechanism this period will end.   When the 500mb wavelength changes in the spring or a SSWE?  In the interim enjoy the few 'winter like accidents' that may occur.

[WEATHERBUFF]

33 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Today and tomorrows spike is a 2 day torch followed by Sat Sun Mon which are N to BN

 

 The real torch is 7 to 8 days long  17 - 24 25 .

The trough is back in the M/A around the 25th ish  as the higher heights are rolling back NW into Canada.

We are back in business by months end and do not be shocked if Feb is a really good winter month .

 

 

 

This coming at about the coldest time of year does'nt mean there won't be snow especially away from the coast.

[donsutherland1]

48 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The remainder of the winter? Comeplete and utter nonsense. Do you have anything to back this up? I agree that January is toast as we can predict with a relative degree of certainty temps out 2 weeks. But the rest of the winter? Next time the powerball or mega millions has a huge jackpot I know who to ask for the winning numbers 

It's risky to attempt to forecast February's temperature from this far out (low-to-no skill in the guidance), much less those of the remainder of winter. The February narrative is far from set.

My guess concerning the days leading up to February is that the EPO will go negative (following the season's back-and-forth pattern), there will be some increase in AO- days (largely statistical following December cases with AO averages of +1.000 or above/January AO outcomes), and a growing likelihood of a sustained PNA+ pattern (combination of PDO+ and fading La Niña event). In short, even as we slog through a multi-week (probably 2 weeks, maybe 3 if the guidance is rushing things) period of generally above normal readings interrupted by short colder periods, winter 2016-17 is not finished.

Interestingly enough, if one looked at the 8- and 11-day objective analogs, 1/14/2006 and 1/30/2006 appeared in both sets. January 2006 was very warm. February 2006 was cool in parts of the East (especially Mid-Atlantic and southward) and warmer than normal (but quite a bit cooler than January) further north. There was also a snow event, complete with widespread thunder, in February that many fondly remember. It's too soon to be certain about February, but the idea that there is wintry potential has at least some merit.

[PB GFI]

27 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ensembles are still indicating a pattern change for late this month. The actual timing might differ a little, but at this time, the pattern change idea after a period of warmth with some brief interruptions, looks real. Nothing significant has changed over the past few days to indicate that the pattern change idea has fallen apart or is falling apart.

 

I agree Don . 

I only look for favorable 500s and I set my sights on the Arctic and Pacific. 

I like how the trough looks to develop back in the SE with higher heights over the top .

The pattern evolves from the very hostile Jan 17 th thru 25 th to a more conducive one post Jan 25 th .

Like in December where 9 out of the 12 days in the 8 th thru 21 st period were BN , we may find the same when we add up the Jan 5 th thru 16th period .

It will be close if Sat thru Mon verify BN.

I am not looking for anything extreme in Feb but I am looking for a period that is colder on balance over a 20 day period then the 2 10 to 12 day periods we just saw 

 

 

[PB GFI]

31 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

This coming at about the coldest time of year does'nt mean there won't be snow especially away from the coast.

Lets see what comes out of the Panhandle Sunday. 

After that we really break for about 7 days.

 

[leo1000]

What has me worried is if the pattern change does occur at the end of January into February is that we never get a good negative NAO and AO. We need a split in the polar vortex to make a prolonged true change in the weather pattern. A positive PNA and negative EPO would only allow maybe at the most 2 weeks of cold before going back in the crapper again. 

[Morris]

38 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

No period has been BN for more than about 7 consecutive days for the last 22 months, while many 15 day periods w/o a BN day have occurred.   One period lasted 35 straight days.   Just 27% of the days of the last 22 months have been normal.    I should be asking you why you think this is going to change at this time!   Trend is your friend.

This terminology of the 'cold is recycling' makes no sense because it is the AN that keeps coming back and predominating.    It is more likely that we will experience a few surprise events like last winter and then call it quits.    Look, a pattern remains in effect till a stronger one replaces it.  Tell me, by what mechanism this period will end.   When the 500mb wavelength changes in the spring or a SSWE?  In the interim enjoy the few 'winter like accidents' that may occur.

False. I remember vaguely that were 11 or so consecutive BN days at the beginning of May last year.

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, Morris said:

False. I remember vaguely that were 11 or so consecutive BN days at the beginning of May last year.

April and May last year were pretty bad, but both months managed to finish in the + column.  Alot of cloudy days which limited highs, but elevated night  time lows.

[BombsAway1288]

50 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

No period has been BN for more than about 7 consecutive days for the last 22 months, while many 15 day periods w/o a BN day have occurred.   One period lasted 35 straight days.   Just 27% of the days of the last 22 months have been normal.    I should be asking you why you think this is going to change at this time!   Trend is your friend.

This terminology of the 'cold is recycling' makes no sense because it is the AN that keeps coming back and predominating.    It is more likely that we will experience a few surprise events like last winter and then call it quits.    Look, a pattern remains in effect till a stronger one replaces it.  Tell me, by what mechanism this period will end.   When the 500mb wavelength changes in the spring or a SSWE?  In the interim enjoy the few 'winter like accidents' that may occur.

I'm not really looking for weeks and weeks of consecutive days below normal. We could still have a very good winter month with an AN day thrown into an overall cold period. In fact I don't really remember weeks of consecutive days BN except for that really cold February. Things don't really workout that way around here especially if you thrown a good size snowstorm in there (12"+). This isn't Canada or the Upper Midwest

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

No period has been BN for more than about 7 consecutive days for the last 22 months, while many 15 day periods w/o a BN day have occurred.   One period lasted 35 straight days.   Just 27% of the days of the last 22 months have been normal.    I should be asking you why you think this is going to change at this time!   Trend is your friend.

This terminology of the 'cold is recycling' makes no sense because it is the AN that keeps coming back and predominating.    It is more likely that we will experience a few surprise events like last winter and then call it quits.    Look, a pattern remains in effect till a stronger one replaces it.  Tell me, by what mechanism this period will end.   When the 500mb wavelength changes in the spring or a SSWE?  In the interim enjoy the few 'winter like accidents' that may occur.

The point you're missing is that nothing is a lock in weather. Look at California during the super Nino last year. Drought busting rain was a lock based on Nino climatology. How did that work out? This far out you certainly may be right and February is AN. But saying it's a lock is just plain wrong. 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Never made it to 50, but it felt 75, 49 was high, back down to 37

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Pouring here ATM... I've picked up .15 in the last hour or so

[psv88]

10 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Pouring here ATM... I've picked up .15 in the last hour or so

Interior winter

[donsutherland1]

The 0z NAM MOS, which greatly undershot today's readings, now shows a 60° high temperature for NYC tomorrow. The last time January saw a high temperature of 60° or above was January 31, 2013 when the temperature reached 61°.