bluewave Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: They are close to the coldest place on the island with no wind and the warmest place on the island with a south wind. Even without a south wind, after sunrise the FOK temp rockets. I have never visited that site. Do you know why it's colder than the other Pine Barrens location at the BNL campus in Upton? Heard a met on here once state that the observation site at FOK is in a bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: I have never visited that site. Do you know why it's colder than the other Pine Barrens location at the BNL campus in Upton? Heard a met on here once state that the observation site at FOK is in a bowl. I haven't visited it either, but I've heard the same about it being in a bowl. I think it is also related to the soil. The soil is probably even sandier at FOK than around Upton. The sand drains very fast and they aren't throwing off much heat in the process of freezing soil moisture. That's one of the reasons there are dwarf pine plains in that vicinity: http://www.suffolkcountyny.gov/Departments/Parks/Parks/DwarfPinesPlainsPreserve.aspx http://www.pinebarrens.org/pdfs/Trail Guide 2011/DWARF PINE PLAINS for website.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: I haven't visited it either, but I've heard the same about it being in a bowl. I think it is also related to the soil. The soil is probably even sandier at FOK than around Upton. The sand drains very fast and they aren't throwing off much heat in the process of freezing soil moisture. That's one of the reasons there are dwarf pine plains in that vicinity: http://www.suffolkcountyny.gov/Departments/Parks/Parks/DwarfPinesPlainsPreserve.aspx http://www.pinebarrens.org/pdfs/Trail Guide 2011/DWARF PINE PLAINS for website.pdf Yeah, the sandy soil in the Pine Barrens is great for radiational cooling. Mt. Holly prepared a small report on the local effect in the NJ Pine Barrens. http://wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/winterawoc/microclimates/DIX/IC43e_DIX_NJ_Pine_Barrens_GregHeavener.pdf Soil type and radiational cooling in NC: http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/winterawoc/microclimates/ILM/IC43e_E_Heden_ILM_20100419.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 30/18 with precipitation currently moving in. Should start as either snow/sleet/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 31F moderate snow band hitting with this squall line, everything's coated, may squeak out a quick inch tonight if this stuff keeps pushing through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Absolutely pouring snow now, surprised it's this heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 There is no SSW or MMW in the upcoming 10 days. Far from it actually. EPV indicates enhanced poleward heat flux, but it will be insufficient / well below the necessary threshold to induce zonal wind reversal down to 60N/10hpa. There is lingering wave 1 forcing from the earlier attack and current wave 2 which is converging on the vortex, but all it achieves is a virtual energy balance on either side of the pole because the amplitudes are grossly insufficient. So the resultant is a more elongated 10hpa vortex by day 10-12. Its future orientation will continue to preclude protracted blocking in the NAM/NAO domains. I wouldn't anticipate much help from those indices for at least 2-3 weeks. I think there is a bit of underestimation regarding the upcoming medium term warm period. The positive EPO surge and contemporaneous low geopotential height field will empty North America of cold air for at least 10 days. January temperature departures will probably be at least +2 for our area. Now, beyond that time frame, I have alluded to the possibility of February's mean pattern having the best opportunity of all three months to diverge into a genuine winter pattern. If we are being honest here, there has been no genuine, protracted winter pattern lasting more than 4 or 5 days so far thia winter. However - and I believe this is partially related to the rapidly decaying Nina - I am noticing an alteration in the walker cell orientation, likely beginning Jan 25th, which should initiate an upper divergence pattern more reflective of an El Nino in the tropical Pacific. The resultant alterations will induce lowering geopotential heights in the N PAC with an increase in atmospheric angular momentum by Day 20. The tropospheric pattern should therefore evolve into one which promotes more ridging in the areas that have seen troughing thus far -- British Columbia, NW US. These changes will take several days to realize, but the warm pattern should be mostly complete by the last 3 or 4 days of January. My opinion on snowfall remains that same, namely that it is hostile for the coast through late month. A light accumulation is possible. February has an increasing probability of actually finishing normal or even below normal temp wise in the Northeast due mostly to anticipated changes upstream. The question becomes, can we force a SSW in February? I think it will be difficult, but not impossible, this year due to background conditions. With that being said, I expect February will feature more transient neg NAO periods than winter thus far, due to rossby wave jet alteration in the NATL and changes w/ walker cells. Overall, this is the most interested I have been in the winter pattern to date. The possibility exists for a sustained colder than normal regime in the Northeast for February. It should be Pacific driven with occasional Atlantic cooperation, and a low likelihood of SSW. I still like 20 to 26" in NYC with slightly below normal NYC southward and near normal snow north of NYC. We shall see how we progress. My analogs indicated at least a 2 to 3 week period of cold. It looks like it may be February, similar to 73-74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 39 minutes ago, Isotherm said: There is no SSW or MMW in the upcoming 10 days. Far from it actually. EPV indicates enhanced poleward heat flux, but it will be insufficient / well below the necessary threshold to induce zonal wind reversal down to 60N/10hpa. There is lingering wave 1 forcing from the earlier attack and current wave 2 which is converging on the vortex, but all it achieves is a virtual energy balance on either side of the pole because the amplitudes are grossly insufficient. So the resultant is a more elongated 10hpa vortex by day 10-12. Its future orientation will continue to preclude protracted blocking in the NAM/NAO domains. I wouldn't anticipate much help from those indices for at least 2-3 weeks. I think there is a bit of underestimation regarding the upcoming medium term warm period. The positive EPO surge and contemporaneous low geopotential height field will empty North America of cold air for at least 10 days. January temperature departures will probably be at least +2 for our area. Now, beyond that time frame, I have alluded to the possibility of February's mean pattern having the best opportunity of all three months to diverge into a genuine winter pattern. If we are being honest here, there has been no genuine, protracted winter pattern lasting more than 4 or 5 days so far thia winter. However - and I believe this is partially related to the rapidly decaying Nina - I am noticing an alteration in the walker cell orientation, likely beginning Jan 25th, which should initiate an upper divergence pattern more reflective of an El Nino in the tropical Pacific. The resultant alterations will induce lowering geopotential heights in the N PAC with an increase in atmospheric angular momentum by Day 20. The tropospheric pattern should therefore evolve into one which promotes more ridging in the areas that have seen troughing thus far -- British Columbia, NW US. These changes will take several days to realize, but the warm pattern should be mostly complete by the last 3 or 4 days of January. My opinion on snowfall remains that same, namely that it is hostile for the coast through late month. A light accumulation is possible. February has an increasing probability of actually finishing normal or even below normal temp wise in the Northeast due mostly to anticipated changes upstream. The question becomes, can we force a SSW in February? I think it will be difficult, but not impossible, this year due to background conditions. With that being said, I expect February will feature more transient neg NAO periods than winter thus far, due to rossby wave jet alteration in the NATL and changes w/ walker cells. Overall, this is the most interested I have been in the winter pattern to date. The possibility exists for a sustained colder than normal regime in the Northeast for February. It should be Pacific driven with occasional Atlantic cooperation, and a low likelihood of SSW. I still like 20 to 26" in NYC with slightly below normal NYC southward and near normal snow north of NYC. We shall see how we progress. My analogs indicated at least a 2 to 3 week period of cold. It looks like it may be February, similar to 73-74 Freehold N.J. had 18" of snow in February 1974 and 12" on the 26th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Park up to 44. Heading for an AN day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 40 minutes ago, Morris said: Park up to 44. Heading for an AN day. The 0z NAM MOS seems to be an outlier in forecasting temperatures to fall in coming hours and then only reach the low 40s tomorrow in New York City. With a series of storms passing well to our north and west, warmer air should advance up the Eastern Seaboard, as had been forecast by the preponderance of earlier guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 I've climbed 10 degrees past hour 39f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 The 0z GFS MOS, which seems more reasonable: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 lots of model rain moving forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pequest Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Moderate sleet here in Oxford Warren County. Temps above freezing. WWA was posted out this way but things never materialized. Big band of virga moved through during the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Its been a minute since i have posted on here lol End of the month is looking stormy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 -2.0 degree temp departure for station thru 1st 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 So what is the story for Saturday? Just some light precip? I don't see a thread regarding it so I am assuming it will be not much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 59 minutes ago, bluewave said: My snowpack disappeared in under 12 hours. All that is left here are just some snow piles. I guess the high ratio fluff didn't stand a chance with rain and 40's overnight. Yeah that was an impressive melt. Had very heavy rain for a time around 2 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Yeah that was an impressive melt. Had very heavy rain for a time around 2 am. These extreme swings continue to be very impressive. Looks like places in NJ that were near or below 0 the last few mornings will approach record highs above 60 tomorrow. Probably as big a January EPO reversal that you will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: These extreme swings continue to be very impressive. Looks like places in NJ that were near or below 0 the last few mornings will approach record highs above 60 tomorrow. Probably as big a January EPO reversal that you will see. Such an absence of blocking (EPO in combination with the other teleconnections) has often been associated with much warmer than normal conditions in the East. In NYC, 79% of the days (January 1950-2016) had warmer than normal temperatures during such patterns. Just under 30% of days had high temperatures of 50° or above. There were also just as many days with 60° or above high temperatures as those with 32° or below high temperatures. Unfortunately, after this weekend, that's the pattern we will have to get through before changes occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Such an absence of blocking (EPO in combination with the other teleconnections) has often been associated with much warmer than normal conditions in the East. In NYC, 79% of the days (January 1950-2016) had warmer than normal temperatures during such patterns. Just under 30% of days had high temperatures of 50° or above. There were also just as many days with 60° or above high temperatures as those with 32° or below high temperatures. Unfortunately, after this weekend, that's the pattern we will have to get through before changes occur. Yeah, it looks like we will see some decent positive monthly temperature departures for January by the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 The real torch is from the 18th - 25th before winter returns with a vengeance. SAT SUN MON are BN again as the 1st attempt at the warm up is only 2 days aided by a cutter . Friday at Tuesday are prob plus 5 days but when you are in the heart of winter your high is 40 to 45 , not 60 . After that its a real 7 day torch but while you are in the middle of it you will already see the cold returning after the 25th 26th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 January could finish +3 to +4 depending on how crazy the torch is. If it's like past torches, actual temps will be higher than guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1974 was rolling along as a cold January until the last 11 days...it ended +3 by todays standards...this year's cold isn't as long and I hope the thaw doesn't last as long as 74...But I'll settle for a 1974 type February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Picked up a solid .25" last night. Really came down heavy for awhile. Currently 45° and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: January could finish +3 to +4 depending on how crazy the torch is. If it's like past torches, actual temps will be higher than guidance Yep , most here were at plus 2 and some higher. But its another AN month snow wise from NYC East . Feb may break the AN temp streak . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 1 hour ago, JerseyWx said: Picked up a solid .25" last night. Really came down heavy for awhile. Currently 45° and sunny. Not to be picky, but posts like this confuse me...how could it be "heavy" for awhile and only pick up .25" During storms I've been seeing more and more of stuff like this lately...like the last storm, its "ripping snow", total accumulation of 2" over like 6 hours...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, Poker2015 said: Not to be picky, but posts like this confuse me...how could it be "heavy" for awhile and only pick up .25" During storms I've been seeing more and more of stuff like this lately...like the last storm, its "ripping snow", total accumulation of 2" over like 6 hours...lol Awhile= half hour in that context. The rest was pretty light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Picked up .15 total sitting at 44F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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