Isotherm Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Almost as cold as last night. 0.9F degrees here with rime ice as well. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 https://s27.postimg.org/o6fa6pjyb/image.png https://s23.postimg.org/8uxpo2h2j/image.png Rime ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, Isotherm said: https://s27.postimg.org/o6fa6pjyb/image.png https://s23.postimg.org/8uxpo2h2j/image.png Rime ice. Beautiful shots, we had that too, and now with the sunrise it looks incredible out. No rjay im not taking pics, its 11 degrees. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 I wasn't expecting it to be so cold out here this morning. It was about 24 when I left, and I get out to Suffolk and it's 12. I don't want to get out of the car now. Beautiful sunrise though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Forecast low was 22. Hit 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 3 in Muttontown this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, psv88 said: Forecast low was 22. Hit 5 Low of 8 here. Another beautiful winter morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 5.6 for a low last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 5.6 for a low last night 4.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 minute ago, psv88 said: 4.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 i'm just looking forward to that nice band moving east,it's looking healthy and expanding into our area.might be our last little shot of snow before rain for the next couple of days.currently 24/17f..i had a low of 18 here in the bronx earlier..let's see how this overrunning band performs before the switchover,which most likely won't happen as quick with feisty cold air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Last evening, I noted the relationship between the PDO and PNA. During the January 1950-2016 period, PDO- values coincided with PNA- values 62% of the time and PDO+ values coincided with PNA+ values 73% of the time. Since December 23, the PNA has been negative, although it rose to -0.232 on January 9 (preliminary value). The ensembles are continuing to show the return of a PNA+ in the medium-term. What is new is that a number of ensemble members are now suggesting that the PNA+ could be sustained. It’s still a little early to be confident in such an outcome, but the relationship between the PDO and the continuing fade of the recent La Niña event argue for an increased prospect of PNA ridging (PNA+) as the winter continues to progress. Borrowing from Dr. Jennifer Francis’ idea concerning Arctic sea ice extent and the jet stream, there might be a case for expecting the predominant patterns to persist, with the exception of the PNA, which has a relationship with the PDO and ENSO. What would that mean for the EPO and AO? The EPO has been variable this meteorological winter: December 1-4: Positive (4 days – 15 days if November is included)) December 5-17: Negative (13 days) December 18-28: Positive (11 days) December 29-January 11? (14 days) Basically, the EPO has been changing states every 10-15 days. While such a near regular oscillation may not necessarily continue, the idea that the forecast period of a positive EPO that lies ahead would again give way to an EPO- probably has merit. The AO has currently been positive for 35 of the first 41 days (85%) of meteorological winter. Dr. Francis’ work might argue for the continuation of a generally positive AO. 11/15 (73%) of December cases with an AO average of +1.000 or above were followed by a positive January average. Nevertheless, there may also be reason to cautiously expect some increase in the number of AO- days in the longer-term (very late January through February timeframe). Of those December cases, 47% had a negative AO average for February. While 36% of the January AO+ subset had a negative AO average in February, 50% of those positive January cases with a monthly AO average < +1.000 had a negative value in February. The January 1-10 preliminary AO average is +0.652 and the guidance does not currently show any of the very strongly AO+ values that occurred in December (+3.000 or above). Overall message: The multi-week (probably about 2 weeks) period of generally warmer than normal conditions in the East (with an interruption this weekend) does not mean the end of winter 2016-17. February may actually produce some good opportunities for cold and snowfall (regardless of what the CFS may imply right now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 5 hours ago, doncat said: UHI hard at work this morning...most of us outside urban areas are close to 10 degrees and lower while 20's prevail in the city. Upper 20s now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 hours ago, Morris said: Low of -3 in Westhampton. 15 in Newark. 21 in the park. ..thats 2 nites in a row below 0 for KFOK..my low was 5.2*. KFOK had 14 consecutive hours of single digit temps(w/ some hours below zero)..you would think the ponds would be ready for some hockey..and they probably are but the crusty snow cover says..no bieno! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, tim said: ..thats 2 nites in a row below 0 for KFOK..my low was 5.2*. KFOK had 14 consecutive hours of single digit temps(w/ some hours below zero)..you would think the ponds would be ready for some hockey..and they probably are but the crusty snow cover says..no bieno! ISP also had a low of 6°, just missing the record of 3° set in 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 5.6 for a low last night 6 1 hour ago, psv88 said: 4.6 5 FYPs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 6 here at 5am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 The city is above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 The Arctic shot ends dramatically at FOK closing in on a 40 degree temperature rise off the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=DIX&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The Arctic shot ends dramatically at FOK closing in on a 40 degree temperature rise off the low. I have noticed allot of these senerios over the years out there. They end a cold shot with some ridiculous low below zero only to have the wind switch south during the morning and rapidly shoot the temp up to 40. It's got to be some of the fastest temperature rises in the entire country If not world. Up there white a chinnock wind on the Great Plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Radar looks fairly healthy, not sure what if any is virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 3 hours ago, tim said: ..thats 2 nites in a row below 0 for KFOK..my low was 5.2*. KFOK had 14 consecutive hours of single digit temps(w/ some hours below zero)..you would think the ponds would be ready for some hockey..and they probably are but the crusty snow cover says..no bieno! Ours here in cnj dont have a snowcover buy they will be melting by tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 26/8 currently. Sky is overcast but no snow flurries yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Parts of New Jersey will go from below 0 to over 60 in only 2 days. I wonder what the state record temperature rise for 2 days is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Parts of New Jersey will go from below 0 to over 60 in only 2 days. I wonder what the state record temperature rise for 2 days is? 4 on Feb. 13th, 1967 to 60 on the 15th, in NYC...I bet parts of N.J. had a larger spread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 11 minutes ago, uncle W said: 4 on Feb. 13th, 1967 to 60 on the 15th, in NYC...I bet parts of N.J. had a larger spread... Toms River was -4 this morning and the Euro has 63 on Thursday. A few degrees more than that and they will be pushing a 70 degree 2 day rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Current temp is 33 here. Quite a volatile weather pattern we are in with these wild swings in temperature and precipitation types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Last evening, I noted the relationship between the PDO and PNA. During the January 1950-2016 period, PDO- values coincided with PNA- values 62% of the time and PDO+ values coincided with PNA+ values 73% of the time. Since December 23, the PNA has been negative, although it rose to -0.232 on January 9 (preliminary value). The ensembles are continuing to show the return of a PNA+ in the medium-term. What is new is that a number of ensemble members are now suggesting that the PNA+ could be sustained. It’s still a little early to be confidence in such an outcome, but the relationship between the PDO and the continuing fade of the recent La Niña event argue for an increased prospect of PNA ridging (PNA+) as the winter continues to progress. Borrowing from Dr. Jennifer Francis’ idea concerning Arctic sea ice extent and the jet stream, there might be a case for expecting the predominant patterns to persist, with the exception of the PNA, which has a relationship with the PDO and ENSO. What would that mean for the EPO and AO? The EPO has been variable this meteorological winter: December 1-4: Positive (4 days – 15 days if November is included)) December 5-17: Negative (13 days) December 18-28: Positive (11 days) December 29-January 11? (14 days) Basically, the EPO has been changing states every 10-15 days. While such a near regular oscillation may not necessarily continue, the idea that the forecast period of a positive EPO that lies ahead would again give way to an EPO- probably has merit. The AO has currently been positive for 35 of the first 41 days (85%) of meteorological winter. Dr. Francis’ work might argue for the continuation of a generally positive AO. 11/15 (73%) of December cases with an AO average of +1.000 or above were followed by a positive January average. Nevertheless, there may also be reason to cautiously expect some increase in the number of AO- days in the longer-term (very late January through February timeframe). Of those December cases, 47% had a negative AO average for February. While 36% of the January AO+ subset had a negative AO average in February, 50% of those positive January cases with a monthly AO average < +1.000 had a negative value in February. The January 1-10 preliminary AO average is +0.652 and the guidance does not currently show any of the very strongly AO+ values that occurred in December (+3.000 or above). Overall message: The multi-week (probably about 2 weeks) period of generally warmer than normal conditions in the East (with an interruption this weekend) does not mean the end of winter 2016-17. February may actually produce some good opportunities for cold and snowfall (regardless of what the CFS may imply right now). Fantastic read, Don. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I have noticed allot of these senerios over the years out there. They end a cold shot with some ridiculous low below zero only to have the wind switch south during the morning and rapidly shoot the temp up to 40. It's got to be some of the fastest temperature rises in the entire country If not world. Up there white a chinnock wind on the Great Plains They are close to the coldest place on the island with no wind and the warmest place on the island with a south wind. Even without a south wind, after sunrise the FOK temp rockets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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