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January 2017 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Be nice to get a +pna with -epo. We have been lucky in ways with the negative combo 

 

Yeh Tim I agree .Those heights will prob continue to roll and both may develop . The CANADIAN ensembles retrograde the negative further SW 

and the EPO could go negative but the AO does  while the the PNA heads positive . 

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

 

gem-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

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50 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I was outside for 14 hours Saturday during the snow. I wear my snowboard pants, high rubber water proof boots with thick socks, heavy jacket with fleece under, hat and face cover and thick snow board mittens. I was toasty and my coworkers freezing. It's all about how you dress. If I could afford one I would get a Canada goose jacket (the ones with the fur hood and red patch on the arm) if you work or live In Manhattan they are everywhere.

im liking the late January-February period as well. One for strict snow climatology but two following the trend of the last few winters. In our new emerging climate that's the time of year that seems to love our area for snow. This isn't speculation or a left/right issue it's fact 

This might be going a bit out of the bounds of "discussion / observations", but my sister and her husband, both of whom are completely insane (they go camping at Mount Washington in winter, etc) think the Canada Goose jackets are a bit overpriced.  They actually recommend another brand, I'll see if I can remember.  The husband is from Sweden so he's got a pretty good handle on what works in major cold.

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2 hours ago, PB GFI said:

 

He is usually too strong for too long .  I think this is a winter of 10 and 15 day periods , for him to say Feb into March is not something I will touch .

 

This weekend will have a very March feel to it . 60 possible ( where there deep snow cover , those point and click numbers will bust high )  on Friday and 2 days later Snow and Ice could show up . I want to see how much energy come out of the Panhandle before I take a good stab at it .

That is an anomalous High and would stand firm if something ran into at the right time . 

Appreciate it man, I was surprised by how strong the high is myself. Im hoping its moe one of those those 2-4 inch deals with a bit of ice on top rather than a bit of snow and then sleet and FR

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8 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

This might be going a bit out of the bounds of "discussion / observations", but my sister and her husband, both of whom are completely insane (they go camping at Mount Washington in winter, etc) think the Canada Goose jackets are a bit overpriced.  They actually recommend another brand, I'll see if I can remember.  The husband is from Sweden so he's got a pretty good handle on what works in major cold.

Canada Goose is a fad, a marketing ploy, and it's worked.  I have had the same Patagonia for years and keeps me toasty.

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1 minute ago, danstorm said:

Canada Goose is a fad, a marketing ploy, and it's worked.  I have had the same Patagonia for years and keeps me toasty.

Patagonia and Arctryx are great.  Btw, a majority of Canada Goose jackets are actually lined with Duck down which is not as warm as Goose down. Doesn't mean their jackets aren't warm, but do find that to be deceiving.

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8 minutes ago, danstorm said:

Canada Goose is a fad, a marketing ploy, and it's worked.  I have had the same Patagonia for years and keeps me toasty.

When people are wearing them when it's 50 just for the sake of wearing one you know it's a fad. But I hear they are legit. I wear a north face shell with a north face fleece under. It's a great combo and good bang for your buck.

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2 hours ago, PB GFI said:

 

This weekend will have a very March feel to it . 60 possible ( where there deep snow cover , those point and click numbers will bust high )  on Friday and 2 days later Snow and Ice could show up . I want to see how much energy come out of the Panhandle before I take a good stab at it .

That is an anomalous High and would stand firm if something ran into at the right time . 

That is for sure.

ecmwf_mslp_east3_18.png

ecmwf_mslp_east3_20.png

 

 

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7 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Too bad the 2nd piece has to cut / but man if the Euro OP is right , what a steal . 

Technically, we could add to our snow and or ice totals on the season without even the temperature departures dropping much below normal.

The 12z run on the Euro is all about timing during the coldest part of day 0-12Z. Normal daily mins and a well timed system would be all we need.

 

 

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17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Technically, we could add to our snow and or ice totals on the season without even the temperature departures dropping much below normal.

 

 

 

 

The entire premise of my ideas were about how - EPO/-WPO HP systems just show up . If you look at the 5th thru 16th  we will find it BN .

I think 8 ish of those 12 days are BN .  Either way if KNYC and the surrounding airports end up with 12 to 15 inches of snow during the period from 3 events I will have to contend with the last 4 days of the forecast period to bust my overall temps forecast .

Fingers crossed .  

 

Now the real torch for me is the 16- 25th ish  . So I will see how the actual 5- 20 ends up , the last 4 days count .  After the 25th lets hope we are kicking the ridge N . 

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38 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Patagonia and Arctryx are great.  Btw, a majority of Canada Goose jackets are actually lined with Duck down which is not as warm as Goose down. Doesn't mean their jackets aren't warm, but do find that to be deceiving.

A similar volume of duck down and goose down will have similar warmth; it's all about maintaining the airspaces in the garment that insulate.  Where downs get differentiated is in what the marketers call the fill power.

Basically "fill power" means how much volume of insulation is maintained by the same weight of down.  

The garment makers have other little value adds like dri-down treatments, shell material and shell coatings etc, but it's mostly about the air spaces for warmth.  Only hikers and others that have to carry gear through the backcountry care about the weight.  And the shell is very important; does one no good to have the down leaking out of the jacket or the wind cutting right through it. The lighter downs (higher fill power) cost more.  Some of that price difference is because of a smaller supply of the higher fill downs and some of that is probably perceived value.  I have no idea about the Canada Goose brand.  I have a duck down jacket (probably 550 or 600 fill) that I found at Marshalls for $29 that suits me fine and I also have an pricey 850 fill Western Mountaineering sleeping bag that I love.

Sorry if this belongs in banter, but there was enough discussion here that I thought could stand a little supplementing.

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10 hours ago, mriceyman said:

Lol .. according to my calculations we are over 2 weeks ahead of the last 2 winters in regards to snowfall. It looks like this is the only storm? Did your crystal ball tell you that?

You live in New York right?. Well you guys are doing good this winter. Not so much in Nova Scotia Canada. Seem's to be a good winter for NNE, British Columbia Canada, California. 

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15 minutes ago, leo1000 said:

You live in New York right?. Well you guys are doing good this winter. Not so much in Nova Scotia Canada. Seem's to be a good winter for NNE, British Columbia Canada, California. 

I was definitely jealous of you guys when White Juan missed just our east and Nova Scotia got crushed.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2004/us0218j5.php

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10 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Idk why my post got deleted but they look amazing! I hope it comes to fruition 

Maybe the post January 25th period will be our first shot at a cold streak lasting longer than 5-10 days. It will be interesting to see how things turn out.

But there are going to be plenty of days with above normal temperatures before we get there.

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16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Maybe the post January 25th period will be our first shot at a cold streak lasting longer than 5-10 days. It will be interesting to see how things turn out.

But there are going to be plenty of days with above normal temperatures before we get there.

Weeklies looks great for February 

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18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Weeklies looks great for February 

I am really hoping that we can hold that pattern the EPS weeklies are showing into February.

Looks like they are trying to shift the strong NE PAC block that has dominated the winter so far 

about 40 degrees further east after the coming +EPO spike fades.

 

500.gif

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Maybe the post January 25th period will be our first shot at a cold streak lasting longer than 5-10 days. It will be interesting to see how things turn out.

But there are going to be plenty of days with above normal temperatures before we get there.

 

I posted them away . wow Chris .

They work thru week 3 .

Lete hope 3 and 4 verify this time .

 

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