dmillz25 Posted January 9, 2017 Author Share Posted January 9, 2017 13 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 17 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 5/-10.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 32 minutes ago, tim said: ...-3* @ KFOK...i'm @ -0.7*..coldest morning yet.. ...i'm now down to -2.2*..KFOK still @-3* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 15 degrees in Manhattan It really sucks working outside in this cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, tim said: ...i'm now down to -2.2*..KFOK still @-3* KFOK @ -9*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Low of 9f here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 0.5F here. Awesome. We decoupled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 4 in nw suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 16 minutes ago, Isotherm said: 0.5F here. Awesome. We decoupled. You are going to have one of the more impressive temperature ranges this week with the WAA coming up. Probably the greatest rebound we have seen since the warm up after Valentine's Day last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 ^^ That sux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 9, 2017 Author Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: 15 degrees in Manhattan It really sucks working outside in this cold Tell me about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 17 minutes ago, gravitylover said: ^^ That sux But we continue to maximize snowfall potential with the fewer number of cold days that we have been getting since December 1st. With only two cold intervals since December 1st, JFK is a little more to half of the average seasonal snowfall total. It just wants to snow here since 2000 no matter how warm the winter background conditions are. JFK...12.6 through 1/9....seasonal average snowfall...23.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Islip also hit 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: But we continue to maximize snowfall potential with the fewer number of cold days that we have been getting since December 1st. With only two cold intervals since December 1st, JFK is a little more to half of the average seasonal snowfall total. It just wants to snow here since 2000 no matter how warm the winter background conditions are. JFK...12.6 through 1/9....seasonal average snowfall...23.8 Agree and we may snow or Ice again MLK weekend in between 2 very warm shots . I do see some light at the end of the warm/bad pattern tunnel. Although cold never seems to hold . After Jan 25 th there are some signs that the trough will develop underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: Islip also hit 4. That broke the daily record low figure of 6°, which was set in 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: That broke the daily record low figure of 6°, which was set in 2004. Impressive. Temp plummeted between 6 and 7 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Impressive. Temp plummeted between 6 and 7 a.m. The wind dropped off. At White Plains, the temperature fell from 13° at 6 am to 7° at 7 am as the wind also dropped off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 9 12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The wind dropped off. At White Plains, the temperature fell from 13° at 6 am to 7° at 7 am as the wind also dropped off. Seema to have happened all over except at the major airports and the Park. KFRG dropped from 13 to 9 between 6 and 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 28 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Agree and we may snow or Ice again MLK weekend in between 2 very warm shots . I do see some light at the end of the warm/bad pattern tunnel. Although cold never seems to hold . After Jan 25 th there are some signs that the trough will develop underneath. That high sliding across from the north continues to look like one of the strongest we have seen in recent years with models maxing out near 1050 mb. Following that, the ensembles show a very rapid EPO reversal with warmth taking over most of North America. But the EPS show that raging Alaskan vortex to only be a transient feature as you can see signs of the 11-15 moving toward the weeklies post January 25th. Very extreme 500 mb wavelength fluctuations coming the rest of this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Next 8 days will average +6 (38 vs. 32). This way, by the morning of the 17th. we are going to be +3.4 for the month with little hope of getting back to normal. The improvement I indicated for 1/27---2/05 period via CFS, seems less likely now and just a glancing blow of BN air from SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Today is the 40th day of meteorological winter. At this point in time, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has averaged +1.455. The breakdown of AO readings is as follows: +3.000 or above: 10% days +2.000 or above: 30% days +1.000 or above: 63% days > 0: 85% days < 0: 15% days -1.000 or below: 0% days Minimum value: -0.297, December 2, 2016 Maximum value: +4.742, December 21, 2016 Most of the guidance suggests that the AO will likely remain positive through at least the next 10 days. January also increasingly looks to have a predominantly positive value, as 11/15 (73%) of cases that saw December’s AO average +1.000 or above also had a positive January average. There were three prominent exceptions (winters 1979-80, 2013-14, and 2015-16). In the case of winter 1979-80, a prolonged period of blocking commenced on December 29, following a shorter duration blocking episode of 12/24-27. In winter 2013-14, December 29-January 7 featured blocking with additional blocking during the January 13-30 timeframe. During winter 2015-16, blocking developed on January 2 and continued through January 25. Both the 2013-14 and 2015-16 cases occurred following a strongly positive QBO in December, as was the case for December 2016. This limited sample of exceptions (timing of the onset of blocking), statistics related to January AO averages following December cases with an AO average of +1.000 or above, and the latest ensemble guidance all argue that January 2017 will likely have a predominantly positive AO figure. Caution is in order, as the AO cannot reliably be predicted for more than two weeks in advance. Even at that timeframe, the guidance can struggle, as only a few days ago the ensembles were arguing for a strong period of Arctic blocking to commence. The guidance has backed off and is now more consistent with the statistical December cases noted above. Research by Dr. Jennifer Francis at Rutgers University has suggested that the decline in Arctic sea ice may slow the progression of the jet stream leading to longer-duration events. It is unclear at this time whether that factor may impact the duration of blocking or absence of blocking. However, it should be noted that Arctic sea ice extent has set daily record low figures for six of the first eight days of January following a record low November-December average of 9,714,311 square kilometers. The November-December 2016 average was 2.5σ below the November-December 2002-2016 average and 1.5σ below the previous record low average for this timeframe, which was set in 2012. Compounding matters, the EPO is forecast to go positive in coming days and then strongly positive after mid-month. The PNA is forecast to go positive for a brief period during the coming weekend, which may assist with a brief period of cooler weather during what could be a multi-week period of warmer than normal temperatures. The possibility of accumulating snow for parts of the area remains on the table for the weekend. Afterward, just as will likely be the case for the Wednesday-Friday timeframe, the potential for days with high temperatures of 50° or above would be elevated relative to climatology. For perspective, based on the forecast teleconnection values using the January 1981-2010 base period, just over a quarter of days saw high temperatures reach or exceed 50° vs. 16% for the entire period. Nearly 11% of days saw high temperatures of 60° or above vs. 4% for the entire base period. The mean temperature for such values was almost 5°F above the mean for the entire base period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 59 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The wind dropped off. At White Plains, the temperature fell from 13° at 6 am to 7° at 7 am as the wind also dropped off. ...westhampton (kfok)..5am.. +9* ..7am..-9* winds went calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 50 minutes ago, Rjay said: 9 Seema to have happened all over except at the major airports and the Park. KFRG dropped from 13 to 9 between 6 and 7am. I agree. Had it happened a few hours earlier, a number of stations, including ISP, might well have fallen to or even below 0°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: I have on : 2 pairs of socks Long Johns under my pants 3 shirts Facemask Gloves Hat Hand warmers I will be standing outside for 16 hours Why is the cfs your favorite model? How about your feet? It has to be brutal staying on your feet outdoors for such a prolonged period. Do the best you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, tim said: ...westhampton (kfok)..5am.. +9* ..7am..-9* winds went calm. Very impressive display of radiational cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: How about your feet? It has to be brutal staying on your feet outdoors for such a prolonged period. Do the best you can. I have waterproof boots on with foot warmers. I love the winter but I hate to workoutside when it's this cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I have waterproof boots on with foot warmers. I love the winter but I hate to workoutside when it's this cold. That's good to hear, as frostbite on toes occurs all too easily. Working outside when it's this cold is very difficult. I fully understand your sentiments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, tim said: ...westhampton (kfok)..5am.. +9* ..7am..-9* winds went calm. LMAO that's insane. Oh, just your routine 18F drop in 2 hrs on a clear night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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