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January 2017 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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6 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

CFS looks worse than ever.   Just 3 BN days in the next 30, and they are the next 3.   That's right, no below normal days all the way to Feb. 07, and did not look like it was about to change at that time either.

it must be a tough having to write about the same thing over and over again. Sad!

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

FYI, there's a rather ugly AO forecast this morning. Unfortunately, it may be in line with December's outcome. 11/15 cases following a December average of +1.000 or above had a January average > 0.

Models are so inconsistent...really having problems. We will have to depend more on the pacific, it's more than the ao.

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39 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

CFS looks worse than ever.   Just 3 BN days in the next 30, and they are the next 3.   That's right, no below normal days all the way to Feb. 07, and did not look like it was about to change at that time either.

Such a horrible model. I don't trust any model more than 5 days out.

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6 hours ago, doncat said:

A refreshing  13 degrees this morning with 6 inches of snow on the ground.

 

11F here this morning. Hoping we an decouple tonight to utilize this fresh snow cover for impressive radiational cooling. If we can achieve calm winds, 0F is within reach in suburbia. 

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2 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

11F here this morning. Hoping we an decouple tonight to utilize this fresh snow cover for impressive radiational cooling. If we can achieve calm winds, 0F is within reach in suburbia. 

850s are like -20C so some places should get near 0F. 12F is the forecast low here in the Bronx.

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21 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Absolutely devastating ice storm on the Euro for Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, central Illinois, and up through the Ohio River Valley 

We have to watch the high to our north to see if it stays in place when the precip comes up.

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9 hours ago, PB GFI said:

 

Yeh the 2 small cuts in the warmth are prob Tues / Wed , maybe N ?  because of the snow cover and then again Sunday Monday as the high cuts accross with the chance of something wintry for someone .

So what looked like a 10 day long uninterrupted torch  could have 4 days carved out of it.

Thats always the risk with -EPO/-WPO patterns that and inject HP into the pattern .

The EPO goes pos on the 13th and the lag of HP is usually 5 days or so.

So the front 5 days of the period are cold and the chance to steal another 4 days out of that warm 10 day period as multiple chances of snow occured in the 15  would be a nice steal .

 

I'm really interested in the possible MLK weekend snow event. The Euro probably shows the potential that is involved. Even the GFS has it right now.

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm really interested in the possible MLK weekend snow event. The Euro probably shows the potential that is involved. Even the GFS has it right now.

 

Don , it really is a timing issue . I guess we want the entire piece to come out like the Canadian did last night.

The Euro and the 12z PARA bring a little more out now .

 

If it comes in pieces the firsr piece gets shredded and by the time second piece ejects the H escapes and it cuts .

Its really a well timed thread the needle event that would be nice to pull off in between what will warm in front and behind.

First there is some WAA Tuesday that should have snow and ice with it into the LHV and NNJ before it goes over to rain.

 

 

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10 hours ago, leo1000 said:

I am just enjoying this  one and only real snowstorm that you could actually classify as a snowstorm.  That is the only one of the winter it looks like.

Lol .. according to my calculations we are over 2 weeks ahead of the last 2 winters in regards to snowfall. It looks like this is the only storm? Did your crystal ball tell you that?

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