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January 2017 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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  On 1/8/2017 at 4:45 AM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Were you alive for the winter of 93-94? It was almost as good as 95-96

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Ah yes!  True that!  Felt like it snowed every week during that winter and I recall my dad being able to stand on top of the snowpack around Valentine's Day because it was glazed over so heavily! 

Was kinda rough after '96 though.  Remember waking up plenty of school days and insisting I was moving N&W where the schools were closed!

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  On 1/8/2017 at 4:09 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

Although the upcoming period could be bleak, I see something that could be a little encouraging. The GFS, Euro, and their ensembles see large amounts of strong HP diving into eastern Canada next weekend. If a weak piece of energy undercuts the HP, there could be the threat for an overrunning event. Fresh cold would be supplied. The 12z Para GFS shows what could happen in such a scenario. I am fully aware that this setup could look completely different in a few days (or even sooner), but it's the only interesting setup for what could be a while. 

18z GFS

gfs_mslpaNorm_us_32.png

18z GEFS

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_32.png

12z Euro

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_us_8.png

12z EPS

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_8.png

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We have been on MLK weekend for 3 days . This feature is real. It is a 1050 high sitting in E Canada .

The threat is for a high height snow or Ice storm next weekend .

The Canadian is too strong but the Euro is just holding too much energy back .

 

A 1050 ish  high in that region offers lots of trouble.

It is something we think is another small window that we can work with .

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  On 1/8/2017 at 7:43 AM, Morris said:

Euro takes the city down to 2 tomorrow night...

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The Euro has problems with NYC when there is snowcover and fresh Arctic air. I can remember several runs in recent winters when it brought NYC down to near -10.

But tonight should be the coldest of this stretch before temps rebound again this week.

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  On 1/8/2017 at 11:59 AM, bluewave said:

The Euro has problems with NYC when there is snowcover and fresh Arctic air. I can remember several runs in recent winters when it brought NYC down to near -10.

But tonight should be the coldest of this stretch before temps rebound again this week.

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GFS takes the city down to 10.

 

However, they all overshot this morning. They had the city down to low double digits.

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  On 1/8/2017 at 12:23 PM, Morris said:

GFS takes the city down to 10.

 

However, they all overshot this morning. They had the city down to low double digits.

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The raw numbers struggle with fresh snowcover and Arctic air. MOS numbers did better this morning in NYC.

But the stronger Arctic air coming in tonight could beat the MOS. I believe that there is Euro MOS also that

corrects the raw biases, but not sure which vendors carry it.

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  On 1/8/2017 at 1:03 PM, bluewave said:

I believe this would be the first 1050 mb high in quite some time to visit nearby SE Canada or northern portions of the Northeast should it verify like models.

Low level cold air hanging on at the surface with the potential for strong overrunning WAA just above that. 

 

Although January 94 was much colder, that may be the last 1050 mb high to visit these parts. Maybe someone can remember a more recent

on that I am missing.

 

012612.png

 

 

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Did Jan 94 bring WAA precip over our area

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  On 1/8/2017 at 8:59 AM, PB GFI said:

 

We have been on MLK weekend for 3 days . This feature is real. It is a 1050 high sitting in E Canada .

The threat is for a high height snow or Ice storm next weekend .

The Canadian is too strong but the Euro is just holding too much energy back .

 

A 1050 ish  high in that region offers lots of trouble.

It is something we think is another small window that we can work with .

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There's a real shot with such a high. It would be a nice way to interrupt what appears likely to be a mild stretch.

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  On 1/8/2017 at 2:58 PM, donsutherland1 said:

There's a real shot with such a high. It would be a nice way to interrupt what appears likely to be a mild stretch.

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Yeh the 2 small cuts in the warmth are prob Tues / Wed , maybe N ?  because of the snow cover and then again Sunday Monday as the high cuts accross with the chance of something wintry for someone .

So what looked like a 10 day long uninterrupted torch  could have 4 days carved out of it.

Thats always the risk with -EPO/-WPO patterns that and inject HP into the pattern .

The EPO goes pos on the 13th and the lag of HP is usually 5 days or so.

So the front 5 days of the period are cold and the chance to steal another 4 days out of that warm 10 day period as multiple chances of snow occured in the 15  would be a nice steal .

 

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