UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 A lot of potential in the next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: A lot of potential in the next week Something tells me you didn't get the 15-20 you were excepting on the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 17 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Were you alive for the winter of 93-94? It was almost as good as 95-96 Ah yes! True that! Felt like it snowed every week during that winter and I recall my dad being able to stand on top of the snowpack around Valentine's Day because it was glazed over so heavily! Was kinda rough after '96 though. Remember waking up plenty of school days and insisting I was moving N&W where the schools were closed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Something tells me you didn't get the 15-20 you were excepting on the cape About 12-15 still heavy snow though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Models that did the best for this storm? The UKMET in my opionion did very well and was very consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Euro takes the city down to 2 tomorrow night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: Although the upcoming period could be bleak, I see something that could be a little encouraging. The GFS, Euro, and their ensembles see large amounts of strong HP diving into eastern Canada next weekend. If a weak piece of energy undercuts the HP, there could be the threat for an overrunning event. Fresh cold would be supplied. The 12z Para GFS shows what could happen in such a scenario. I am fully aware that this setup could look completely different in a few days (or even sooner), but it's the only interesting setup for what could be a while. 18z GFS 18z GEFS 12z Euro 12z EPS We have been on MLK weekend for 3 days . This feature is real. It is a 1050 high sitting in E Canada . The threat is for a high height snow or Ice storm next weekend . The Canadian is too strong but the Euro is just holding too much energy back . A 1050 ish high in that region offers lots of trouble. It is something we think is another small window that we can work with . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 8, 2017 Author Share Posted January 8, 2017 2 hours ago, Morris said: Euro takes the city down to 2 tomorrow night... Sheesh 2? What does the gfs show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 It must be a function of all that gorgeous snow cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 10/-7 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 4 hours ago, Morris said: Euro takes the city down to 2 tomorrow night... The Euro has problems with NYC when there is snowcover and fresh Arctic air. I can remember several runs in recent winters when it brought NYC down to near -10. But tonight should be the coldest of this stretch before temps rebound again this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro has problems with NYC when there is snowcover and fresh Arctic air. I can remember several runs in recent winters when it brought NYC down to near -10. But tonight should be the coldest of this stretch before temps rebound again this week. GFS takes the city down to 10. However, they all overshot this morning. They had the city down to low double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 A refreshing 13 degrees this morning with 6 inches of snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, Morris said: GFS takes the city down to 10. However, they all overshot this morning. They had the city down to low double digits. The raw numbers struggle with fresh snowcover and Arctic air. MOS numbers did better this morning in NYC. But the stronger Arctic air coming in tonight could beat the MOS. I believe that there is Euro MOS also that corrects the raw biases, but not sure which vendors carry it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Current temp is 13 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 8, 2017 Author Share Posted January 8, 2017 I say we wake up to a temperature of 11 tomorrow am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: I say we wake up to a temperature of 11 tomorrow am GFS MOS....14 GFS RAW...11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Crisp 9 degrees IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 8, 2017 Author Share Posted January 8, 2017 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: I believe this would be the first 1050 mb high in quite some time to visit nearby SE Canada or northern portions of the Northeast should it verify like models. Low level cold air hanging on at the surface with the potential for strong overrunning WAA just above that. Although January 94 was much colder, that may be the last 1050 mb high to visit these parts. Maybe someone can remember a more recent on that I am missing. Did Jan 94 bring WAA precip over our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 8, 2017 Author Share Posted January 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: It was much colder. NYC fell to 0 with 4.6" of snow. Oh ok I see. I was 4 then so obviously I have no recollection of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 FYI, there's a rather ugly AO forecast this morning. Unfortunately, it may be in line with December's outcome. 11/15 cases following a December average of +1.000 or above had a January average > 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: FYI, there's a rather ugly AO forecast this morning. Unfortunately, it may be in line with December's outcome. 11/15 cases following a December average of +1.000 or above had a January average > 0. Just like that, the old great forecast disappears... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 5 hours ago, PB GFI said: We have been on MLK weekend for 3 days . This feature is real. It is a 1050 high sitting in E Canada . The threat is for a high height snow or Ice storm next weekend . The Canadian is too strong but the Euro is just holding too much energy back . A 1050 ish high in that region offers lots of trouble. It is something we think is another small window that we can work with . There's a real shot with such a high. It would be a nice way to interrupt what appears likely to be a mild stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Morris said: Just like that, the old great forecast disappears... Caution is still warranted due to poor run-to/run continuity. Further, the AO can't be reliably forecast beyond 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: There's a real shot with such a high. It would be a nice way to interrupt what appears likely to be a mild stretch. Yeh the 2 small cuts in the warmth are prob Tues / Wed , maybe N ? because of the snow cover and then again Sunday Monday as the high cuts accross with the chance of something wintry for someone . So what looked like a 10 day long uninterrupted torch could have 4 days carved out of it. Thats always the risk with -EPO/-WPO patterns that and inject HP into the pattern . The EPO goes pos on the 13th and the lag of HP is usually 5 days or so. So the front 5 days of the period are cold and the chance to steal another 4 days out of that warm 10 day period as multiple chances of snow occured in the 15 would be a nice steal . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowheavyattimes Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Great posts, PB. Keep up the good work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Great write ups PB and Don. Hopefully the weeklies continue to show a turn for the better in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Park 20 at noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 GFS does show the 'high attack' winter event for next weekend...1-3"/2-4" or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 CFS looks worse than ever. Just 3 BN days in the next 30, and they are the next 3. That's right, no below normal days all the way to Feb. 07, and did not look like it was about to change at that time either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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