PB GFI Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I am looking for another snow event by day 10 or 11. I will post my thoughts tomorrow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 So upton says blah Friday morning and hello sunshine this weekend. I totally see how that happens but it's going to be painful. Pallet after pallet of salt sitting here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: So upton says blah Friday morning and hello sunshine this weekend. I totally see how that happens but it's going to be painful. Pallet after pallet of salt sitting here... It's January 4th haha. It will snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, psv88 said: It's January 4th haha. It will snow... I read this as July 4th, threw me off for a second lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 18 minutes ago, psv88 said: It's January 4th haha. It will snow... I agree, I don't see any reason why we do not have a decent February based on the indices. That and following the trend of our current climate February has really been the "it" month. Even more so then during our full recorded climate records. More moisture to play with and the cooler ocean temps at that time allow for allot of blockbuster chances. It would be nice to see a return of more west based Nao blocking like we had in the late 2000's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Down to 39/10 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: So upton says blah Friday morning and hello sunshine this weekend. I totally see how that happens but it's going to be painful. Pallet after pallet of salt sitting here... you'll be using some salt Friday-even a half inch with cold temps in the mid 20's will create the need-this stuff won't melt at the first ray of sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Unfortunately, as has often been the case with an AO+/PNA- pattern, it now appears very unlikely that New York City will receive an appreciable, much less significant snowfall. Since 1950, the City had received no snowfalls of 6” or more during such a pattern (https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49434-january-2017-discussion-observations/?page=7#comment-4375730). The statistical probability of such an outcome was low, but not near zero. Such a pattern favors light snowfalls. That should be the case Thursday night into Friday morning. It should again be the case Saturday night into Sunday. In fact, on a statistical basis, there would be a one-in-five chance that there would be no snowfall whatsoever this weekend. Certainly some of the guidance points in that direction. If one examines the forecast mini-spike in the PNA, it appears that the mini-spike will occur about 24-36 hours too late. By the time it is taking place, the storm will be sufficiently far off the Southeast coast so as to be unable to make a sharp enough turn northward to bring meaningful snowfall to the NYC area. There remains some possibility that extreme eastern New England could wind up with several inches of snow, especially if an inverted trough develops. Looking at past cases where storms brought 3” or more snow to Atlanta, just 5/19 (26%) brought 6” or more to New York City. None of the 11 storms that brought 6” or more snow to Wilmington, NC resulted in 6” or more snow in New York City. In fact, among that latter sample, five (45%) occurred during winters that saw < 15” snowfall in New York City: February 23, 1901: 9.0” (NYC 1900-01 seasonal total: 9.1”) February 24-25, 1942: 8.0” (NYC 1941-42 seasonal total: 11.3”) February 9-10, 1973: 12.5” (NYC 1972-73 seasonal total: 2.8”) March 1-3, 1980: 6.6” (NYC 1979-80 seasonal total: 12.8”) December 22-24, 1989: 15.3” (NYC 1989-90 seasonal total: 13.4”) The February 9-10, 1973 southern snowstorm occurred during an AO+/PNA- pattern. Such a pattern is forecast to be in place through the weekend. Finally, based on the latest objective analogs, above normal temperatures should take hold near mid-month +/- a few days (> 75% probability) after a cold weekend and start to next week (with potential low temperatures falling into the teens in NYC and single digits outside the City and one or two days having highs < 30°). One of the cases is exceptionally warm. In general, there has been a strong and consistent signal for above normal temperatures during that timeframe, though some of the guidance had forecast faster moderation. However, the models often are a little fast with big pattern changes. All said, realities associated with the pattern and historic climatology of Southeast snowstorms suggest that the New York City area will miss out on a big snowfall this time around. It’s still premature to write off snowfall prospects for the winter as a whole. If one is looking for some encouragement, January 29-30, 1936 saw a snowstorm bring 8.0" to Atlanta and 6.5" to Wilmington. New York City wound up with 33.2" seasonal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 48 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It’s still premature to write off snowfall prospects for the winter as a whole. If one is looking for some encouragement, January 29-30, 1936 saw a snowstorm bring 8.0" to Atlanta and 6.5" to Wilmington. New York City wound up with 33.2" seasonal snowfall. Thanks for boost in confidence lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Um, 6-10" looking a whole lot more like .6-1.2" #greatpostersgonebad. This whole time the 2nd "wave" screamed suppression. Congrats Elizabeth City, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 hours ago, Brian5671 said: you'll be using some salt Friday-even a half inch with cold temps in the mid 20's will create the need-this stuff won't melt at the first ray of sun Sublimation in hours. Come in guys, pull it together. Sure you can write off winter and early spring, but let's not wishcast and lose focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Current temp is 26 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 27 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 22. Nice cold snap coming up. Time to lace up the skates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Dipped below freezing here this morning for the first time in nearly 15 days. Impressive run. It was above 32.0°F from 8:25 AM on December 21st to 4:06 AM on January 5th. That's 14 days, 19 hours, and 41 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 28 minutes ago, Cfa said: Dipped below freezing here this morning for the first time in nearly 15 days. Impressive run. It was above 32.0°F from 8:25 AM on December 21st to 4:06 AM on January 5th. That's 14 days, 19 hours, and 51 minutes. I know that we like to focus on monthly departures, but the last 15 days have averaged +8. These warm ups keep surpassing expectations. The same Dec 21-Jan 4 period last winter was +13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 the ao forecast is for it to go negative around the 16th...two members in the forecast dive to -5...If that happens look out for something huge ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 hours ago, Cfa said: Dipped below freezing here this morning for the first time in nearly 15 days. Impressive run. It was above 32.0°F from 8:25 AM on December 21st to 4:06 AM on January 5th. That's 14 days, 19 hours, and 41 minutes. The park was close, although it dipped to 31 between obs last weekend. These types of streaks are happening regularly now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 hours ago, bluewave said: I know that we like to focus on monthly departures, but the last 15 days have averaged +8. These warm ups keep surpassing expectations. The same Dec 21-Jan 4 period last winter was +13. Way too easy to get past expectations, I don't see many months ahead below the 1981-2010 averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 37 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said: Way too easy to get past expectations, I don't see many months ahead below the 1981-2010 averages. We would need a strong blocking pattern to emerge later this winter to have a chance at a colder than normal February here. Absent a significant high latitude blocking pattern , the default position has been above normal monthly temperatures. The 3 ways to get a cold February here since 2013 have been... Atlantic based -AO or -NAO block Polar block Pacific block -EPO/+PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 42 minutes ago, bluewave said: We would need a strong blocking pattern to emerge later this winter to have a chance at a colder than normal February here. Absent a significant high latitude blocking pattern , the default position has been above normal monthly temperatures. The 3 ways to get a cold February here since 2013 have been... Atlantic based -AO or -NAO block Polar block Pacific block -EPO/+PNA Yes I agree that seems the only way otherwise it reverts back to bout 2 above if not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Models have a possible storm midmonth Euro says what huge warmup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: Models have a possible storm midmonth Euro says what huge warmup? That would seriously kick ass if true. Nothing is worse then blowing the coldest part of the winter with a big warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 20 hours ago, PB GFI said: I am looking for another snow event by day 10 or 11. I will post my thoughts tomorrow . So I wanted to get past the upcoming 2 waves today so I could touch on this . Not always a buyer of 10 day OP runs but HP in - EPO/WPO regime just likes to show up . We are in Jan so we can snow even in a hostile pattern . Shorter wave lengths can cut through the mean ridge position when HP presses through the lakes . I am not sure how this gets handled over the next 5 to 7 days but I wanted to show that even when the heights look high the pattern could still produce ., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 33 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Models have a possible storm midmonth Euro says what huge warmup? did you even look at the Euro? We have a 4 day cool down, followed by a 4 day warm up, followed by another cool down. Its a back and forth pattern with any cutters spiking temps well above normal. Keep in mind we are already at +9 for this month so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: did you even look at the Euro? We have a 4 day cool down, followed by a 4 day warm up, followed by another cool down. Its a back and forth pattern with any cutters spiking temps well above normal. Keep in mind we are already at +9 for this month so far. It's a brief warmup with 1 cutter on the Euro Snowstorm at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: Probably the biggest OP GFS vs OP Euro day 10 model war of the season so far. They both agree on that very strong high to the north but have different overrunning zones. I hate looking at any OP past 5 days . The EPO goes POS around the 13th and I always look for an extra 5 day lag in it`s ability to help eject HP through the UMW . I wanted to see if the Euro was onto something early . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 21 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's a brief warmup with 1 cutter on the Euro Snowstorm at 240 In this pattern, I wouldn't count on a snowstorm 10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 44 minutes ago, PB GFI said: I hate looking at any OP past 5 days . The EPO goes POS around the 13th and I always look for an extra 5 day lag in it`s ability to help eject HP through the UMW . I wanted to see if the Euro was onto something early . Me too. Before we even get there it looks like another rapid temperature turnaround like we had near the solstice in December. Both the GFS and Euro have lows below 20 on the 9th and highs over 50 on the 11th. Reminds me of the quick rebounds that we saw last winter after the Arctic shots. NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/05/2017 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 FRI 06| SAT 07| SUN 08| MON 09| TUE 10| WED 11| THU 12|FRI CLIMO N/X 29 36| 21 27| 19 26| 17 32| 27 40| 39 53| 45 47| 38 25 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Me too. Before we even get there it looks like another rapid temperature turnaround like we had near the solstice in December. Both the GFS and Euro have lows below 20 on the 9th and highs over 50 on the 11th. Reminds me of the quick rebounds that we saw last winter after the Arctic shots. NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/05/2017 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 FRI 06| SAT 07| SUN 08| MON 09| TUE 10| WED 11| THU 12|FRI CLIMO N/X 29 36| 21 27| 19 26| 17 32| 27 40| 39 53| 45 47| 38 25 38 I will be interested to see if the snow cover can buy me 5 ish degrees for a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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