January 2017 Discussion & Observations

[nzucker]

2 hours ago, PB GFI said:

NZUCKER you dolt .  

 

For lying about my Jan forecast .

 

I am plus 2 for Jan / I wrote that away last week and never posted that I was BN for Jan 

 

 

I should have written "January period." However, based on your comments about the Jan 5-20 period being well below normal with above average snowfall, you'd think you'd be going a bit colder. Be honest: you just came out with the +2 idea as the NAO trended weaker and the EPO more transient. I think Jan will have similar temp anomalies to Dec, though perhaps slightly colder, especially in the Mid Atlantic and Southeast where two storms could lay down an impressive snow cover. I would go +1.4F for Central Park for January. 

I think the reason you busted on December and may have to retract the Jan 15-20 below normal call is because you are going against the grain of the winter, which is cold ENSO/-AAM/+QBO/low ozone/cold stratosphere. These larger patterns are dictating the general temperature regime so we can only get brief interludes of cold.

The GFS has a -1SD bias on the AO, meaning that the AO has consistently been 1SD higher than the average forecast. The GEFS have been much too aggressive on developing a -NAO. Considering the global regime, this is no surprise. Until we get a large scale change in the stratosphere or MJO/PAC forcing, it will be more of the same.

[donsutherland1]

35 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Yes Don! Wasn't that the season we had a historic October snowfall along the coastal plain in the midatlantic?

Biggest one until October 2011- which coincidentally was also a low total snowfall season.

Yes. The October snowfall occurred on the 10th.

[Paragon]

14 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Stop calling me an idiot. I've been a solid poster on this board for years, and I recently defended your thoughts about the upcoming pattern change. 

I know you forecasted an above normal month as a whole, but said than Jan 5-20 (a 15 day period) would have below normal temperatures and above normal snow. Right now, with the guidance weakening the NAO and making the EPO more transient, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw average temps and average snowfall for the period. We'll see though. 

You seem to be shortening your 15 day cold and snowy period to 10 days, more in line w Isotherm's thoughts. Please do not pretend your forecast was for only Jan 5-15 when it originally went to the 20th. You also busted on December, forecasting a -1F anomaly when the month actually finished +2F. While most of that was due to the extremely mild last week, the extreme cold you were counting on did not come to fruition. Models that had 2m temps in the single digits for the Dec 10-20 period were 10F too cold. We verified with a low of 17F, which set the decadal record, but is still unremarkable considering record lows in mid-Dec are around 0F. 

Why are you so defensive? We're both good posters and should respect each other. Critiquing the elements of a forecast can only serve to improve the finished product.

He wasn't calling you a dolt or an idiot lol.  He called Brian a dolt for mistaking Bluewave for you.

[PB GFI]

 

Why is it still BN through the 15th and not the Jan 10 pattern change some were expecting here .

 

Here is day 10 Euro. Look at that new HP coming right through the UMW .

Why ?

 

 

Look at the flow here ,

 

Where and why is that flow coming from ? 

 

 

 

We are already out to Jan 13. 

 

[PB GFI]

 

Some of you guys had the cold out of here on the 10th .

 

That`s not going to happen if the EURO/EPO/WPO are right .

 

Now after the 20th , sure , but def not the 10th and that Cold H swings through by day 12/13 .

 

And another shortening of the W/L you could snow again between day 10 -15 . I am not calling for that , but it is Jan and you can snow in not so great patterns .

 

 

[nzucker]

49 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

almost impossible these days to get a BN month.  There's always a sneaky over performing torch lurking...

We did get 3 BN months in a row during Winters 2013-14 and 2014-15. JFM were wicked cold in both winters, highlighted by two major snowstorms (1/3, 1/24) in Jan '14 and the -11F departure in Feb '15. So it's not impossible to get a stretch of below normal months, especially in winter.

The commonality was that both winters featured strong -EPO/PAC blocking patterns, which reached over the Pole during February. The semblance of a weak -AO combined with a more dominant -EPO allowed for cold to be first displaced into Central Canada, then brought east.

This winter differs in that we have a variable EPO with a strong +AO/+NAO. The cold vortex and Icelandic Low, along with generally lower heights in the Gulf of AK, make it hard to sustain cold. Any cold we do get is quickly shunted back to the northwest as the West Atlantic Ridge/subtropical high dominates due to the +NAM. DJF temps should average below normal in the PAC NW, Intermountain West, and Northern Plains...anywhere southeast of Chicago will probably finish the winter above normal, with the biggest warmth in Florida and the SE Coast.

[Paragon]

Yes, 3 can happen, but I doubt we'll ever see (in our lifetimes at least) 17-21 BN months in a row like we've seen AN months in this latest streak.  I have a hard time believing we'll even see 6.

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Yes, 3 can happen, but I doubt we'll ever see (in our lifetimes at least) 17-21 BN months in a row like we've seen AN months in this latest streak.  I have a hard time believing we'll even see 6.

definitely agree.  Incredible stretch of consistent warmth which is helped by a warmer background state and also a 3 year drought which had led to positive temp feedback through dry ground, less rainy days etc.

[WEATHERBUFF]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

almost impossible these days to get a BN month.  There's always a sneaky over performing torch lurking...

That's why I've been saying we could not call the 1981-2010 averages normal anymore.

[nzucker]

13 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Why is it still BN through the 15th and not the Jan 10 pattern change some were expecting here .

 

Here is day 10 Euro. Look at that new HP coming right through the UMW .

Why ?

 

 

Look at the flow here ,

 

Where and why is that flow coming from ? 

We are already out to Jan 13. 

 

That doesn't look very cold to me...NYC is right on the 0C 850 line (above average 850s) and the coldest air in the CONUS is -15C. 

In the 500mb anomaly map, the problem is clear. The AK block is displaced west over the Aleutians, which allows for a -PNA/SE ridge. The Atlantic pattern is the opposite of what we want: low heights over Greenland/Iceland, high heights from Labrador to Portugal. We would want to see a ridge over Greenland, with troughing over the Canadian Maritimes (50/50 Low) and a closed low off of Portugal. The PV is also sitting near Banks Island/Beaufort Sea, much too far north.

The above pattern means everything cuts and we get above normal temps and below normal snowfall.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, PB GFI said:

 

 

5 - 15  will easily finsh  BN  

 

Looks like the call of 5 days by anyone is dead . 

 

10 days here / If I fall short by a few and snow twice I will live.

 

Snow / see Euro day 3 - UKMET day 5 

 

But your 5 day call  --- meh 

 

Please check the guidance before you post .

 

 

 

I think it's misleading to say 10 day cold snap though when the first 5 day period starts warm then turns cold and the second 5 day mean is very slightly below because the first two days are cold followed by two average days as the cold is scoured from the west and the period ends warm.  So it's a 6-7 day cold period that you stretch to 10 days using those maps. But selective data selection can't change ground truth. A call for a 15 day period of cold and snow chances is significantly different then a 6/7 day transient cold snap with one weekend marginal threat window.  I was wrong too. I thought this looked like a more permanent or at least longer lasting pattern change a week ago but those that said it was a transient 5 day hiccup were way closer to reality. 

[Brian5671]

The other thing is that it's not all that cold. BN yes, but not some crazy -15 type stuff.

[WEATHERBUFF]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

The other thing is that it's not all that cold. BN yes, but not some crazy -15 type stuff.

I'm sure most in here notice almost every month is now 2 above average.

[CIK62]

The reason we are above normal twice as often as below now, must be due to the fact that our normal is no longer the normal.    While this won't make for lower temps. of course-----if we opted for a 20-year normal, updated  every 2 years, we could capture the changing climate we are facing for whatever reason.  (The variable sun most likely)       Above or below are relative terms which should occur with the same frequency whatever reasonable period is chosen.

[WEATHERBUFF]

2 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The reason we are above normal twice as often as below now, must be due to the fact that our normal is no longer the normal.    While this won't make for lower temps. of course-----if we opted for a 20-year normal, updated  every 2 years, we could capture the changing climate we are facing for whatever reason.  (The variable sun most likely)       Above or below are relative terms which should occur with the same frequency whatever reasonable period is chosen.

Very good points! 30 year norms don't fit in the rapidly changing climate we have now.

[PB GFI]

On 1/3/2017 at 3:08 PM, nzucker said:

That doesn't look very cold to me...NYC is right on the 0C 850 line (above average 850s) and the coldest air in the CONUS is -15C. 

In the 500mb anomaly map, the problem is clear. The AK block is displaced west over the Aleutians, which allows for a -PNA/SE ridge. The Atlantic pattern is the opposite of what we want: low heights over Greenland/Iceland, high heights from Labrador to Portugal. We would want to see a ridge over Greenland, with troughing over the Canadian Maritimes (50/50 Low) and a closed low off of Portugal. The PV is also sitting near Banks Island/Beaufort Sea, much too far north.

The above pattern means everything cuts and we get above normal temps and below normal snowfall.

 

 

Dude no offense but are looking at the evolution of this  day 9 and 10 are AN because there is a cutter . I told you guys 4 days ago a cutter would split the pattern .

Then the cold is coming back  to the 13th , look at the flow . Toggle through . 

You guys said it was done on the 10th 

 

Jan 1 .

Happy New Year Chris , 

Day 11 12 13 are BN at 2M  on the GEFS and the ridge is gone .

It should be .

Day 10 Euro is N with another HP pushing back thru the UMW.

 

I am not even sure that day 10 ridge is even there , but its gone 11 thru 13 on the GFS.

 

 

This is exactly what I wrote , I mean exact . 

 

The idea is THAT HP coming backing through Montana ( I said EPO/WPO HP ) press through the UMW 

 

That`s a day 12 snowstorm / that doesn`t cut . 

I don`t buy it , the day 10 Euro skill score is horrible / but I buy the H because of the EPO/WPO 

 

One last caveat you guys are not realizing , if there is snowcover 2M temps will BUST .

 

[PB GFI]

Now the ridge is prob there in the means but if the day 10 Euro is right/ day 11 - 12 will have HP sitting over the top of us with LP running to our S 

 

Again that is what the Euro OP says I don`t buy a day 12 storm sitting here today .

[Paragon]

32 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The reason we are above normal twice as often as below now, must be due to the fact that our normal is no longer the normal.    While this won't make for lower temps. of course-----if we opted for a 20-year normal, updated  every 2 years, we could capture the changing climate we are facing for whatever reason.  (The variable sun most likely)       Above or below are relative terms which should occur with the same frequency whatever reasonable period is chosen.

If it's the sun doing it, we're a billion years ahead of schedule as far as solar evolution is concerned.......

[Paragon]

31 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

Very good points! 30 year norms don't fit in the rapidly changing climate we have now.

They would work better if we updated them every year instead of every 10 years.

[Eduardo]

On 1/2/2017 at 3:22 PM, mimillman said:

I'm out right now and can't do it myself, but I'd be interested to know what the Boxing Day blizzard synoptic set up was going into the event. 

 

On 1/2/2017 at 3:27 PM, donsutherland1 said:

That blizzard occurred during a period of severe blocking.

 

On 1/2/2017 at 3:36 PM, Eduardo said:

Also some last-minute PNA help on that one too if I remember correctly?

 

On 1/2/2017 at 3:41 PM, Rjay said:

I think remember a northern stream s/w that came flying down at just the right time to phase with a vigorous southern stream s/w.  The ridge out west improved a little every run for 48hrs prior.

 

On 1/2/2017 at 3:41 PM, donsutherland1 said:

I believe the PNA became less negative just ahead of the storm.

 

On 1/2/2017 at 3:45 PM, Rjay said:

Also with the pna improvements, the s/w that came whizzing down from Canada was poorly sampled and led to the model chaos.

 

Would it be totally off-base to ask if anyone else is sensing a (pleasant) bit of deja-vu here?

I am definitely liking the trends with respect to the ridging out west.  Hope it gives us the love we need to make things interesting this weekend!

[Cfa]

2 hours ago, Paragon said:

They would work better if we updated them every year instead of every 10 years.

Averages for any time period are readily available from the NWS site under "Monthly Summarized Data".

 http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=okx

[PB GFI]

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

The other thing is that it's not all that cold. BN yes, but not some crazy -15 type stuff.

That is not how you score the period .

 

There was ZERO talk about severe cold .

BN . - 2 - 3 over 10 days qualifies.

Thats what December gave you 

Now go look at the GEFS day 11 12 13  its BN and see why this is not just 5 days .

The entire argument was the EPO/WPO would extend what some believed was 5 days .

We will add it up when the period is over .

 

[PB GFI]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I think it's misleading to say 10 day cold snap though when the first 5 day period starts warm then turns cold and the second 5 day mean is very slightly below because the first two days are cold followed by two average days as the cold is scoured from the west and the period ends warm.  So it's a 6-7 day cold period that you stretch to 10 days using those maps. But selective data selection can't change ground truth. A call for a 15 day period of cold and snow chances is significantly different then a 6/7 day transient cold snap with one weekend marginal threat window.  I was wrong too. I thought this looked like a more permanent or at least longer lasting pattern change a week ago but those that said it was a transient 5 day hiccup were way closer to reality. 

 

There are 2 snow chances this week .. The period was  over 10 to 15 days .

If it snows 2 twice inside a 5 day period and its AN over 2 weeks based on the months average  and that was called on  the last week in Dec is that not a good forecast ? 

 

If you forecast BN from the 5h thru the 20th , it doesnt mean everyday is BN , but the period .

Which is how any skill score would work .

The period was always forecast to have a cutter in the middle .

Its there on Dec 28 . The problem with a board like this is too many little kids extrapolate the meaning of BN.

 

[Morris]

The long-range AO forecast is still good.

NAO zig zagging.

[leo1000]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I think it's misleading to say 10 day cold snap though when the first 5 day period starts warm then turns cold and the second 5 day mean is very slightly below because the first two days are cold followed by two average days as the cold is scoured from the west and the period ends warm.  So it's a 6-7 day cold period that you stretch to 10 days using those maps. But selective data selection can't change ground truth. A call for a 15 day period of cold and snow chances is significantly different then a 6/7 day transient cold snap with one weekend marginal threat window.  I was wrong too. I thought this looked like a more permanent or at least longer lasting pattern change a week ago but those that said it was a transient 5 day hiccup were way closer to reality. 

It doesn't make much sense to be honest though with a negative AO expected during this transition from a cold pattern to a milder pattern. Judah Cohen mentions this in his latest blog post. http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

[CIK62]

WPC Snow Prob.  for Thurs night into Fri.  PM   is   50% for at least 1" and less than 10% for 4".   

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, PB GFI said:

 

There are 2 snow chances this week .. The period was  over 10 to 15 days .

If it snows 2 twice inside a 5 day period and its AN over 2 weeks based on the months average  and that was called on  the last week in Dec is that not a good forecast ? 

 

If you forecast BN from the 5h thru the 20th , it doesnt mean everyday is BN , but the period .

Which is how any skill score would work .

The period was always forecast to have a cutter in the middle .

Its there on Dec 28 . The problem with a board like this is too many little kids extrapolate the meaning of BN.

 

If I said it was going to be a cold week then Monday was -20 but the rest of the week everyday was +4 even though the mean for the week is cold anyone you ask on the street would say I busted because 4/5 days were warm. My point is ground truth and how we perceive the weather is way more important then data and soil scores. Data can lie if you know how to manipulate it. Calling the snow threats two separate windows is also Kinda lame for two waves along a front a day apart. It's basically a 3 day window for snow. Anyone reading your initial forecast was given the perception of a much different period. 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.40" of rain for the day, 2 day total 0.82"

[PB GFI]

7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

If I said it was going to be a cold week then Monday was -20 but the rest of the week everyday was +4 even though the mean for the week is cold anyone you ask on the street would say I busted because 4/5 days were warm. My point is ground truth and how we perceive the weather is way more important then data and soil scores. Data can lie if you know how to manipulate it. Calling the snow threats two separate windows is also Kinda lame for two waves along a front a day apart. It's basically a 3 day window for snow. Anyone reading your initial forecast was given the perception of a much different period. 

 

Wait wait Lame ? Picking out a 10 day  AN snow period from 7 days ago is lame ? 

Some of you wonder why there are only 3 good posters on this board .

Keep listeng to stuff like this , it will put you ahead of the curve 

 

You dont know what you are talking about , go look at the day 10 Euro with another cold H drilling in where I said it would come through  , so  NOW day 11 and 12 are BN.

Then go look at the actual day 14/15 EPS 850s and see the trough is back as the PNA goes POS.

There are 2 snowstorms forecast over the next 5 days .

Wave 1 12k/4kNAM , try  .3 to .5 ar 15 to 1 ratios /

And Wave on the  2 EPS  . The snow threat was seen because of how the guidance was buckling the jet on both sides of the Continent with a NEG PNA.

So you would eject SWs under the block , that was not seen here by many  here in late Dec when I posted.

These threats have been talked about away for over 8 days away / you will not find that here with posts like yours .

The way cold periods work is you get 5 to 6 days of BN 3 days AN then 3 to 4 BN.

I posted a cutter splits the period / they usually do .

Then you score the forecast period.

Theres usually 1 cutter that splits the pattern , the problem with some of you is you didnt see whats comig for day 11 12 etc and have been posting it was over on the 10th.

 

 

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

I'm sure most in here notice almost every month is now 2 above average.

17.7% of the earth has been running above normal for 12 months or more. Our last below normal month was June 2015.