January 2017 Discussion & Observations

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

Shall we call that the January thaw,our whatever they usually call it?

Hard to call it a January thaw when we've had very little winter so far.  The cold coming later this week/ next week is not that much below average and looks less impressive than the mid December cold stretch

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Hard to call it a January thaw when we've had very little winter so far.  The cold coming later this week/ next week is not that much below average and looks less impressive than the mid December cold stretch

and looks to be mostly gone by the middle of next week. Maybe not torchy but average to a few degrees above easily

[WEATHERBUFF]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

98-99 was horrid here.  Not sure how 58-59 worked out.

58-59 was'nt too good either. I know I heard someone mention those analogs both being after strong ninos, but there were stronger ninas than whatever we have now.

[nzucker]

20 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

No but we just don`t jump over 10 BN days and 2 shots at snow .

 

You look at a month and don`t look at these smaller potential periods .

 

Last Jan was + 2 , but that will not be what it was remembered for . 

It looks like your idea of a colder than normal January with a sustained snowy and cold pattern from 1/5-1/20 is on the ropes. The GEFS and EPS are breaking down the EPO block more quickly, and the Friday threat looks to be on its last legs. It seems Bluewave and Isotherm may be correct about this being a brief interlude of cold in a mild La Nina pattern rather than a long-term pattern change.

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

28 minutes ago, nzucker said:

It looks like your idea of a colder than normal January with a sustained snowy and cold pattern from 1/5-1/20 is on the ropes. The GEFS and EPS are breaking down the EPO block more quickly, and the Friday threat looks to be on its last legs. It seems Bluewave and Isotherm may be correct about this being a brief interlude of cold in a mild La Nina pattern rather than a long-term pattern change.

 

 

 

 

 

5 - 15  will easily finsh  BN  

 

Looks like the call of 5 days by anyone is dead . 

 

10 days here / If I fall short by a few and snow twice I will live.

 

Snow / see Euro day 3 - UKMET day 5 

 

But your 5 day call  --- meh 

 

Please check the guidance before you post .

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

The last 10 day of AN are past my period and wrote that we prob recycle after the 20th  . But the cold is 10 days with 2 chances of snow .  Gotta check the guidance before ya post. 

[PB GFI]

35 minutes ago, nzucker said:

It looks like your idea of a colder than normal January

 

 

 

 

Show me where I said Jan would be BN 

 

I am plus 2 for the month. 

 

 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

 

Horror shows in here .

 

That`s evolved into cold JAN and snowy lol .

 

The 10 -15 day period is BN with AN snow .

 

Idiots in here . 

Bluewave is a solid poster, I would not insult him like that.   Right now we're shoveling potential and measuring potential temps.   Save the spiking of the ball until Jan 31st

[PB GFI]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Bluewave is a solid poster, I would not insult him like that.   Right now we're shoveling potential and measuring potential temps.   

NZUCKER you dolt .  

 

For lying about my Jan forecast .

 

I am plus 2 for Jan / I wrote that away last week and never posted that I was BN for Jan 

 

 

[Brian5671]

Just now, PB GFI said:

NZUCKER you dolt .  

 

For lying about my Jan forecast .

 

I am plus 2 for Jan / I wrote that away last week 

 

 

you referenced a post to Chris, so figured you were talking about him, but now I can see what you were doing, you were calling up your thoughts on Jan...my bad, carry on!

[PB GFI]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

you referenced a post to Chris, so figured you were talking about him, but now I can see what you were doing, you were calling up your thoughts on Jan...my bad, carry on!

 

 

No I re posted Dec 28 - where I was 10 to 15 days .

 

JAN 5- 15 ARE BN . If I am 5 days too long , how is that anymore of a bust of being 5 days too short .

And I am AN snow for the period .

 

It`s not like the Euro day 3 - UKMET day 5 don`t see it . 

 

But no where was  I BN in JAN / laughable . 

 

 

[Paragon]

Interesting how we viewed last January as being great because of that one blizzard even though it was +2 temp wise.  It shows we don't care much about temps as long as it snows.

[Paragon]

By the way, even though we view winter 2001-02 with horror (a neutral ENSO winter), there was a historic coastal Carolina snowstorm that winter in January.  Sometimes, we just miss by a little bit......

Even the worst snowfall winter in NYC history, 1972-73 (which happened in a strong el nino), had a historic southern snowstorm.

[donsutherland1]

47 minutes ago, nzucker said:

It looks like your idea of a colder than normal January with a sustained snowy and cold pattern from 1/5-1/20 is on the ropes. The GEFS and EPS are breaking down the EPO block more quickly, and the Friday threat looks to be on its last legs. It seems Bluewave and Isotherm may be correct about this being a brief interlude of cold in a mild La Nina pattern rather than a long-term pattern change.

 

 

 

I believe he called for a cold period but above normal month overall.

[PB GFI]

On 1/1/2017 at 4:25 PM, PB GFI said:

 

I see the EPS day 11 thru 15  , I dont buy it " yet " .

There should be a cutter that splits the pattern.

But if you look at day 11 12 13  on the GEFS the trough is firing east .

 

After the 20 th , I will have no issues with backing off , but these patterns are usually 10 to 15 day intervals.

 

 

 

Not like the warm up was not seen . 

[donsutherland1]

Just now, Paragon said:

By the way, even though we view winter 2001-02 with horror (a neutral ENSO winter), there was a historic coastal Carolina snowstorm that winter in January.  Sometimes, we just miss by a little bit......

Even worst snowfall winter in NYC history, 1972-73 (which happened in a strong el nino) had a historic southern snowstorm.

1979-80, too.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

 

No I re posted Dec 28 - where I was 10 to 15 days .

 

JAN 5- 15 ARE BN . If I am 5 days too long , how is that anymore of a bust of being 5 days too short .

And I am AN snow for the period .

 

It`s not like the Euro day 3 - UKMET day 5 don`t see it . 

 

But no where was  I BN in JAN / laughable . 

 

 

almost impossible these days to get a BN month.  There's always a sneaky over performing torch lurking...

[pazzo83]

11 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

 

Horror shows in here .

 

That`s evolved into cold JAN and snowy lol .

 

The 10 -15 day period is BN with AN snow .

 

Idiots in here . 

15 days is half of the month...

[PB GFI]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

I believe he called for a cold period but above normal month overall.

Thank you  Don .

 

I am BN 5- 20 - 5 -15 will work / the last 5 is too long so may wreck it  , but I am plus 2 for Jan . 

 

I think there are 2 chances of snow in between 2 poor patterns . But that happens in Jan when W/L shorten . 

[PB GFI]

5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

15 days is half of the month...

 

A 10 to 15 day forecast is considered the month ? 

 

By Dec 21  KNYC was - 1.8 so do I take that as win for my monthly ? 

 

I am + 2 in Jan / Can`t change someones forecast 

[Paragon]

To be honest, with the streak of over a year and a half of above normal monthly temps, it would be foolish for anyone to call for a below normal month tempwise, regardless of ENSO state, the best we can do is around normal with above average snow- call that a win, regardless of what any index is.

Over the last 18-21 months we've been at or above normal tempwise with a whole variety of different indices- the writing isn't just on the wall, it's now etched in stone.

I read PB's original call and he did call for above normal temp overall for January with a 10 day interlude of colder than normal temps but that's it.

 

[Paragon]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

1979-80, too.

Yes Don! Wasn't that the season we had a historic October snowfall along the coastal plain in the midatlantic?

Biggest one until October 2011- which coincidentally was also a low total snowfall season.

[forkyfork]

the late weekend event is trending better with a pna ridge being modeled now. this doesn't make the gfs right btw, since it was forecasting a small pac s/w to amplify without much help from the pattern 

 

[Paragon]

Seeing you getting a bit more optimistic concerning this is actually shocking- it gives one hope!

[forkyfork]

i doubt a full bore secs/mecs but we could get a 3-5" scraper type of event

[Paragon]

Yeah I was thinking something like what we saw in December, except no change to other p-types, which would make it more "fun."  I guess it'll have to do since we might not get another chance for the rest of the month.

 

[nzucker]

28 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

The last 10 day of AN are past my period and wrote that we prob recycle after the 20th  . But the cold is 10 days with 2 chances of snow .  Gotta check the guidance before ya post. 

PB, you're a great poster but let's not pretend the idea of a major two week cold and snow pattern isn't on the ropes. My forecast has Thursday at 36/30, Friday at 35/28, Saturday at 33/24, Sunday at 32/19, and Monday at 30/26...that's just slightly below average for early to mid January. If we get one cutter in the 10-15 day period, we could easily finish the period, and the month, above normal. In any case, the cold shot does not look as impressive as December, and that only got us down to 17F. Considering we had a winter low of -1F last year, 2F in 2015, and 4F in 2014, none of this looks that impressive.

You said the cold and snow would be from Jan 5-20, while Bluewave and Isotherm said it was a one week shot. As I predicted, the result will probably be in the middle. We definitely look to see moderation in the Jan 12-15 period as the EPO breaks down.

Both of our snow threats are also looking less impressive. The 12z ECM has nothing for Thursday night and only 1-3" for Sunday. If we only have a few inches by 1/20, it will be a major disappointment. 

I'm waiting to see if the PNA spike for the end of Jan/beginning of Feb shown by the Euro weeklies and CFS monthly is correct. That could make a much better February for sure.

[PB GFI]

5 minutes ago, nzucker said:

PB, you're a great poster but let's not pretend the idea of a major two week cold and snow pattern isn't on the ropes. My forecast has Thursday at 36/30, Friday at 35/28, Saturday at 33/24, Sunday at 32/19, and Monday at 30/26...that's just slightly below average for early to mid January. If we get one cutter in the 10-15 day period, we could easily finish the period, and the month, above normal. In any case, the cold shot does not look as impressive as December, and that only got us down to 17F. Considering we had a winter low of -1F last year, 2F in 2015, and 4F in 2014, none of this looks that impressive.

You said the cold and snow would be from Jan 5-20, while Bluewave and Isotherm said it was a one week shot. As I predicted, the result will probably be in the middle. We definitely look to see moderation in the Jan 12-15 period as the EPO breaks down.

Both of our snow threats are also looking less impressive. The 12z ECM has nothing for Thursday night and only 1-3" for Sunday. If we only have a few inches by 1/20, it will be a major disappointment. 

I'm waiting to see if the PNA spike for the end of Jan/beginning of Feb shown by the Euro weeklies and CFS monthly is correct. That could make a much better February for sure.

 

That`s right I was 10 to 15 days - they were 5 . 

My forecast  was for AN snow  for the period 

The Euro is 1 to 3 for wave 1 and the  UKMET is an all out blizzard .  If you guys think wave 2 is a miss , then you are not paying attention .

 

That has warning type event written all over it . 

 

Look at the 2M anomalies . they are BN for 10 days 5th thru 15th . 

 

You also said I was BN for Jan I am + 2  , so make sure you post my forecasts accurately . 

[nzucker]

28 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

NZUCKER you dolt .  

 

For lying about my Jan forecast .

 

I am plus 2 for Jan / I wrote that away last week and never posted that I was BN for Jan 

 

 

Stop calling me an idiot. I've been a solid poster on this board for years, and I recently defended your thoughts about the upcoming pattern change. 

I know you forecasted an above normal month as a whole, but said than Jan 5-20 (a 15 day period) would have below normal temperatures and above normal snow. Right now, with the guidance weakening the NAO and making the EPO more transient, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw average temps and average snowfall for the period. We'll see though. 

You seem to be shortening your 15 day cold and snowy period to 10 days, more in line w Isotherm's thoughts. Please do not pretend your forecast was for only Jan 5-15 when it originally went to the 20th. You also busted on December, forecasting a -1F anomaly when the month actually finished +2F. While most of that was due to the extremely mild last week, the extreme cold you were counting on did not come to fruition. Models that had 2m temps in the single digits for the Dec 10-20 period were 10F too cold. We verified with a low of 17F, which set the decadal record, but is still unremarkable considering record lows in mid-Dec are around 0F. 

Why are you so defensive? We're both good posters and should respect each other. Critiquing the elements of a forecast can only serve to improve the finished product.

[PB GFI]

27 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Stop calling me an idiot. I've been a solid poster on this board for years, and I recently defended your thoughts about the upcoming pattern change. 

I know you forecasted an above normal month as a whole, but said than Jan 5-20 (a 15 day period) would have below normal temperatures and above normal snow. Right now, with the guidance weakening the NAO and making the EPO more transient, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw average temps and average snowfall for the period. We'll see though. 

You seem to be shortening your 15 day cold and snowy period to 10 days, more in line w Isotherm's thoughts. Please do not pretend your forecast was for only Jan 5-15 when it originally went to the 20th. You also busted on December, forecasting a -1F anomaly when the month actually finished +2F. While most of that was due to the extremely mild last week, the extreme cold you were counting on did not come to fruition. Models that had 2m temps in the single digits for the Dec 10-20 period were 10F too cold. We verified with a low of 17F, which set the decadal record, but is still unremarkable considering record lows in mid-Dec are around 0F. 

Why are you so defensive? We're both good posters and should respect each other. Critiquing the elements of a forecast can only serve to improve the finished product.

It looks like your idea of a colder than normal January with a sustained snowy and cold pattern from 1/5-1/20 is on the ropes.

 

If you never included that in your attempt to troll you would not have read that . 

 

Dolt was aimed at  Brian . He knows I love him , so it`s ok . 

 

Post on DEC 28 - where I post 10 to 15 days . I am not afraid if the front 10 work and the last 5 don`t . I never run away from what I post.