donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: I'm out right now and can't do it myself, but I'd be interested to know what the Boxing Day blizzard synoptic set up was going into the event. That blizzard occurred during a period of severe blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: That blizzard occurred during a period of severe blocking. Also some last-minute PNA help on that one too if I remember correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Also some last-minute PNA help on that one too if I remember correctly? I think remember a northern stream s/w that came flying down at just the right time to phase with a vigorous southern stream s/w. The ridge out west improved a little every run for 48hrs prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Also some last-minute PNA help on that one too if I remember correctly? I believe the PNA became less negative just ahead of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I believe the PNA became less negative just ahead of the storm. Also with the pna improvements, the s/w that came whizzing down from Canada was poorly sampled and led to the model chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, Rjay said: Also with the pna improvements, the s/w that came whizzing down from Canada was poorly sampled and led to the model chaos. I recall that and the "initialization" hypothesis when the GFS was first to catch on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I recall that and the "initialization" hypothesis when the GFS was first to catch on. I actually recall the 18z NAM as the first to catch on. By 00z, every major model was locked in on the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, mimillman said: I actually recall the 18z NAM as the first to catch on. By 00z, every major model was locked in on the blizzard. The 12Z GFS was, the Euro then sort of moved west and the 18Z NAM came way west. Ncep wasn't buying it though because they said initialization issues with the gfs may have impacted other models too and that 00Z would be the first error free runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 18Z OP not being suppressed as much as 12Z - looks similar to 12Z GEFS with precip making onshore here and further up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: I believe the PNA became less negative just ahead of the storm. we had a great pna ridge right before the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: Euro isnt very dominant anymore. The issue is that the Euro focuses more on wave 1 . Gfs focuses on wave 2. Gfs has been doing very well lately and has been beating the euro. Euro is the best by far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 36 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 18Z OP not being suppressed as much as 12Z - looks similar to 12Z GEFS with precip making onshore here and further up the coast I started a thread to discuss the model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 For those who are interested, here's a scatter diagram of NYC's 6" or greater January snowstorms: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: For those who are interested, here's a scatter diagram of NYC's 6" or greater January snowstorms: PNA is a bit surprising tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, BxEngine said: PNA is a bit surprising tbh. 15/18 (83%) occurred with a PNA>0. None during this period occurred with an AO+/PNA-. On a statistical basis, the odds of a 6" or greater snowstorm with an AO+/PNA- are low, but not zero. There were two very close calls in the sample. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: 15/18 (83%) occurred with a PNA>0. None during this period occurred with an AO+/PNA-. I wonder how many had a loading pattern with more of a neutral or even - pna a few days before the storm? Seems like we often get that pna spike (which makes sense as the trough deepens in the east) before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: 15/18 (83%) occurred with a PNA>0. None during this period occurred with an AO+/PNA-. On a statistical basis, the odds of a 6" or greater snowstorm with an AO+/PNA- are low, but not zero. There were two very close calls in the sample. Amazing stuff. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: 15/18 (83%) occurred with a PNA>0. None during this period occurred with an AO+/PNA-. On a statistical basis, the odds of a 6" or greater snowstorm with an AO+/PNA- are low, but not zero. There were two very close calls in the sample. Thanks a bunch Don. This kind of stuff is invaluable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, BxEngine said: I wonder how many had a loading pattern with more of a neutral or even - pna a few days before the storm? Seems like we often get that pna spike (which makes sense as the trough deepens in the east) before the storm. For the January cases, only 2/18. One of the PNA- cases had been preceded by a period of PNA+. None of the PNA+ cases were preceded by a PNA-. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: For the January cases, only 2/18. One of the PNA- cases had been preceded by a period of PNA+. None of the PNA+ cases were preceded by a PNA-. Heh. I was way off, lol. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, BxEngine said: Heh. I was way off, lol. Thanks. Of course, my point only concerns January storms. Things can be different in December and especially February and afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: For those who are interested, here's a scatter diagram of NYC's 6" or greater January snowstorms: Don where did you get that diagram from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: Don where did you get that diagram from? I made the diagram. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I made the diagram. The man, the legend, Don Sutherland! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, psv88 said: The man, the legend, Don Sutherland! Thanks for the kind words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I made the diagram. that is awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Thanks for the kind words. No, thank you. Your posts are top notch and I hope you post here more often this winter. I have learned alot over the years from you and other well informed posters. There arent enough of you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Thanks for the kind words. Don-- do you have a similar PDF for NYC snowfalls 4+? I am trying to create similar analyses as you going forward and am compiling the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 We are lucky to have Don postings here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We are lucky to have Don postings here Absolutely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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