dmillz25 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Looks like a compromise of 6z/0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Big time snowstorm for NC on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 NC mountains 2+ feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, snywx said: Big time snowstorm for NC on the 12z GFS. IMO, right where we want it 6 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: IMO, right where we want it 6 days out ehh.. Im not to excited about this threat. Its gonna need alot of assistance to make that turn N. IMO this is a VA southward threat. Flow is too progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: IMO, right where we want it 6 days out I remember PDII was slated to bd a DC hit 48 hours out because of the high pressing down and then BINGO... Dont want to be bullseye this far out...we have cold and we have a chance..let's wait and watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 It's weird. When the low was in TX it jumped like 100 miles south which I found odd. Shows you it can also come north for sure. I like where we're at right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 With the nao trending positive, this should come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Jason WX said: CMC says no lol Yeah but it shows 2-4 for fridays wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, Jason WX said: CMC says no lol Wave 1 messes Wave 2 up. We need to pray for a weaker wave 1 or a no go for it. Stronger wave 1 = most likely no hit for wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Will Be Interesting To See If The 12Z JMA Continues To Show The Storm Coming Up The Coast - Has Been The Most Consistent Model Thus Far Showing The Same Solution For A Few Days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Looked better than 6z early (GFS), then H5 seems to get squashed by confluence to the north and goes pos tilt once off the coast. Good times. Awaiting the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 16 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: IMO, right where we want it 6 days out Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 This would be a historic snow storm for the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Googlymoogly Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I dont mind the run by run frame by frame isolated analyses, but what're some thoughts on the temps this month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, Googlymoogly said: I dont mind the run by run frame by frame isolated analyses, but what're some thoughts on the temps this month? Go back a page or 2... it's usually what's discussed in between model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Couple of quick thoughts... In La Niña winters, models will trend west with time. I would not be surprised to eventually see models cutting this system through NJ or PA; some of GEF members last night were showing such a scenario. Remember to question extremes...a 4-8 in snowstorm for the N. Mid Atlantic is much more likely than a historic southern snowstorm on average. Rapid rise in the AO and NAO normally points towards a significant EC precipitation event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 12Z GEFS Brings Precip Up The Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Ggem for wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 The euro continues with phasing the vort out west into the trough earlier on. In return we get a sheared out wave 1 and wave two gets crushed south. 1 inch or less Thursday night and cold and dry on the weekend Gfs is on its own with wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 the euro has been locked on to a weak sheared out wave for 4 runs in a row now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Can't go against Dr. No in a situation like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Trying to use the GFS against Dr. No is like bringing a knife to WW3. Euro isnt very dominant anymore. The issue is that the Euro focuses more on wave 1 . Gfs focuses on wave 2. Gfs has been doing very well lately and has been beating the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 17 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro isnt very dominant anymore. The issue is that the Euro focuses more on wave 1 . Gfs focuses on wave 2. Gfs has been doing very well lately and has been beating the euro. Its verification numbers as a whole are great but when it comes to significant storm systems I've found its had suppression problems at times since the upgrade in February. Its not all the time, but many times. The January blizzard when it was running as the Parallel Euro still it had NYC barely getting 5 inches 48 hours out when most other models were already correcting north. The UKMET being flat too though makes me feel the Euro idea may be more reality at the moment. The last 2 winters the UKMET has consistently caught onto systems being more amped in the 96-144 hour range better than any other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 the main issue is how much energy gets left behind in the pac nw. the euro shows most of the energy going east while the gfs leaves a much bigger piece behind. given the +ao i favor the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 12z eps likes the 1st wave better. It actually trended closer to the coast than 0z. I wonder if this low can trend even further west. Alot of model differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I will take the CMC on wave 1 and be perfectly happy. An all snow event this winter seems impossible to come by and we're wasting prime season with +10 anomalies every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I'm out right now and can't do it myself, but I'd be interested to know what the Boxing Day blizzard synoptic set up was going into the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 nam cuts off shortwave just like gfs does through hours 48. still some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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