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January 2017 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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0Z GFS 2 M anomalies. 

Day 4 - 8

Day 8 - 12 We get cutter in here so its AN for a few before return flow HP comes back.

Day 12 - 16 

Are all BN .

Once past the 15th , we will reshuffle , but in the heart of Jan , the GFS is not AN yet .

Lets see what todays ensembles look like for the next 10 to 15 days .

/then we will modify/

 

2 chances at snow this week . If 1 works I will take it and feel fortunate .

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You can see how even the Euro is showing less blocking longer range over Greenland than just a few days ago.

The models have all been backing off the blocking the closer in we get since the record AO reversal back in November.

 

new run

NEW.png

old run

OLD.png

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It didn't lose the storm

0z para had a coastal like the 0z gfs. Not every run is going to show a hit. Cmc and euro were close.

Agreed. Slight nuances in the upper levels will effect storm track this far out. As long as the GFS continues to show a coastal we're in good shape. I'm more concerned with the EURO and CMC. Needs to show a more consolidated shortwave, albeit they were close.

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21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

My hunch is the area may have a better shot at some light snow on the first system near 96 hours vs the next one.  I think the 2nd system may be suppressed well south and mostly a SRN MA/SE/Gulf event.

Look at the 250 mb jet streak at 132 

 

Snow breaks out in the Tenn and OHV and the center goes from Mobile to OBX but you collapse the heights on the EC with ridging through the Rockies ? 

Its not like theres some 3 SD BN -NAO pressing down.

Duno.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You can see how even the Euro is showing less blocking longer range over Greenland than just a few days ago.

The models have all been backing off the blocking the closer in we get since the record AO reversal back in November.

 

new run

NEW.png

old run

OLD.png

 

 

 

The last of the cold pressing highs will fire through the UMW into CONUS about 5 days after we lose the WPO/ EPO.

If you remember back in Dec we lost those 2 around the 15th and bought an xtra 5 to 6 days of BN.

So I like the look of the GFS days 11 to 14 with the colder look .

Then we flip .

You know me I am no fan of the Atlantic  I just look west for whats coming at me .

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1 hour ago, PB GFI said:

 

The last of the cold pressing highs will fire through the UMW into CONUS about 5 days after we lose the WPO/ EPO.

If you remember back in Dec we lost those 2 around the 15th and bought an xtra 5 to 6 days of BN.

So I like the look of the GFS days 11 to 14 with the colder look .

Then we flip .

You know me I am no fan of the Atlantic  I just look west for whats coming at me .

Another one week cold shot... Don't see how January averages below normal... The streak continues

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1 hour ago, PB GFI said:

 

The last of the cold pressing highs will fire through the UMW into CONUS about 5 days after we lose the WPO/ EPO.

If you remember back in Dec we lost those 2 around the 15th and bought an xtra 5 to 6 days of BN.

So I like the look of the GFS days 11 to 14 with the colder look .

Then we flip .

You know me I am no fan of the Atlantic  I just look west for whats coming at me .

Hi, again I love your posts. Do you still think we flip back to cold before the end of Jan.?

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22 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

Hi, again I love your posts. Do you still think we flip back to cold before the end of Jan.?

 

If the PNA can spike after the 20th then I suppose it's possible. 

But I am focusing on the next 15 with a possible snowstorm in the middle .

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49 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

When was the last 1 week cold shot ? 

 

Jan should finish A again.

18 months in a row of above normal, until we break that streak why should we expect anything else. December looked like it had a chance to deliver until the last 10 days of the month averaged 7 degrees above normal.

It's been frustrating to say the least.

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