mimillman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: How is the Canadian Very different depiction. Still tries to develop a coastal with wave 1 which fails, turns wave 2 into a glorified front with some snow, but not at all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Also that -NAO on the GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Epic GFS run all around through 300 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 The UHI is sticking out like a soar thumb tonight. Temps on Staten Island range from the lower 40's to the upper 20's over the span of a few miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 33 minutes ago, Cfa said: The UHI is sticking out like a soar thumb tonight. Temps on Staten Island range from the lower 40's to the upper 20's over the span of a few miles. 33F at EWR to lower-mid 40s in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 The pac vort on the GFS is consolidated while the Euro looks very strung out to me out west. I'm going to bed before the run finishes. Looked ok at hour 66 and 24 hours later it's strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 0Z GFS 2 M anomalies. Day 4 - 8 Day 8 - 12 We get cutter in here so its AN for a few before return flow HP comes back. Day 12 - 16 Are all BN . Once past the 15th , we will reshuffle , but in the heart of Jan , the GFS is not AN yet . Lets see what todays ensembles look like for the next 10 to 15 days . /then we will modify/ 2 chances at snow this week . If 1 works I will take it and feel fortunate . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Of course the 6z GFS lost it. It has no support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 35 minutes ago, Morris said: Of course the 6z GFS lost it. It has no support. It didn't lose the storm 0z para had a coastal like the 0z gfs. Not every run is going to show a hit. Cmc and euro were close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 You can see how even the Euro is showing less blocking longer range over Greenland than just a few days ago. The models have all been backing off the blocking the closer in we get since the record AO reversal back in November. new run old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It didn't lose the storm 0z para had a coastal like the 0z gfs. Not every run is going to show a hit. Cmc and euro were close. Agreed. Slight nuances in the upper levels will effect storm track this far out. As long as the GFS continues to show a coastal we're in good shape. I'm more concerned with the EURO and CMC. Needs to show a more consolidated shortwave, albeit they were close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Sleeting right now in Manhattan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 How far up the LHV do you guys think this morning precip will go? I need to get out and do some stuff and would prefer to stay dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 My hunch is the area may have a better shot at some light snow on the first system near 96 hours vs the next one. I think the 2nd system may be suppressed well south and mostly a SRN MA/SE/Gulf event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 light sneet falling here in the bronx..35/26f,so it's still pretty cold. i think the colum cools off a bit before starting to rise again,esp with heavier precip incoming.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: My hunch is the area may have a better shot at some light snow on the first system near 96 hours vs the next one. I think the 2nd system may be suppressed well south and mostly a SRN MA/SE/Gulf event. All about timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: My hunch is the area may have a better shot at some light snow on the first system near 96 hours vs the next one. I think the 2nd system may be suppressed well south and mostly a SRN MA/SE/Gulf event. Look at the 250 mb jet streak at 132 Snow breaks out in the Tenn and OHV and the center goes from Mobile to OBX but you collapse the heights on the EC with ridging through the Rockies ? Its not like theres some 3 SD BN -NAO pressing down. Duno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: You can see how even the Euro is showing less blocking longer range over Greenland than just a few days ago. The models have all been backing off the blocking the closer in we get since the record AO reversal back in November. new run old run The last of the cold pressing highs will fire through the UMW into CONUS about 5 days after we lose the WPO/ EPO. If you remember back in Dec we lost those 2 around the 15th and bought an xtra 5 to 6 days of BN. So I like the look of the GFS days 11 to 14 with the colder look . Then we flip . You know me I am no fan of the Atlantic I just look west for whats coming at me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 hour ago, PB GFI said: The last of the cold pressing highs will fire through the UMW into CONUS about 5 days after we lose the WPO/ EPO. If you remember back in Dec we lost those 2 around the 15th and bought an xtra 5 to 6 days of BN. So I like the look of the GFS days 11 to 14 with the colder look . Then we flip . You know me I am no fan of the Atlantic I just look west for whats coming at me . Another one week cold shot... Don't see how January averages below normal... The streak continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 hour ago, PB GFI said: The last of the cold pressing highs will fire through the UMW into CONUS about 5 days after we lose the WPO/ EPO. If you remember back in Dec we lost those 2 around the 15th and bought an xtra 5 to 6 days of BN. So I like the look of the GFS days 11 to 14 with the colder look . Then we flip . You know me I am no fan of the Atlantic I just look west for whats coming at me . Hi, again I love your posts. Do you still think we flip back to cold before the end of Jan.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Hi, again I love your posts. Do you still think we flip back to cold before the end of Jan.? Get ready for more cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Get ready for more cold That's yesterday's chart. Today's is still nice, but not as extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 45 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Another one week cold shot... Don't see how January averages below normal... The streak continues When was the last 1 week cold shot ? Jan should finish A again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 22 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Hi, again I love your posts. Do you still think we flip back to cold before the end of Jan.? If the PNA can spike after the 20th then I suppose it's possible. But I am focusing on the next 15 with a possible snowstorm in the middle . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 49 minutes ago, PB GFI said: When was the last 1 week cold shot ? Jan should finish A again. 18 months in a row of above normal, until we break that streak why should we expect anything else. December looked like it had a chance to deliver until the last 10 days of the month averaged 7 degrees above normal. It's been frustrating to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Some pretty good changes from 06z to 12z at 500 so far. trough looks to be almost nuetral hr 114 as oppose to positive from 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Man this things really digging at Hr 120, tapping the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Closed off 500mb low over Southern TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 6z same time 12z 6z 12z looks like a good hit coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: 6z same time 12z 6z 12z looks like a good hit coming I don't think it's gonna do it for us this time but much better than 06 especially upper levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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