bluewave Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 6:02 AM, pazzo83 said: No freezing temp yet at the park, so this stretch will go from Jan 16th to Jan 28th. Remarkable. Expand Going back to 1950, this was one of the longest streaks above freezing in NYC that began between between January 15-31. A couple of years carried into the first few days of February even though the bulk of days were in late January. Needless to say, nearly all the post 1950 records were since 1999. 2012...14 days 2002...12 days 2017...12 days 1974...10 days 1999...9 days 2006...8 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/27/2017 at 2:11 PM, IrishRob17 said: Forecasted low last night was 31, only made it to 37, average is 15...that's a torch. Granted my actual low for the day will occur closer to midnight tonight but still... Temp talk <yawn> Expand Fail. I was 36 around midnight. I was briefly below freezing once since the 19th. And another bust on the low this morning. Unbelievable warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 This is the third such streak this winter for me. 1. 12/01-12/09 (9 days) 2. 12/22-01/04 (14 days) 3. 01/17-Today (12 days and counting) Looking over my weather station's data, I see only 17 days with temps below 32.0°F this winter. A lot of "almost, but not quite", but still impressive nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 January 1932 had 18 straight from 1/13-1/30... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 2:22 PM, uncle W said: January 1932 had 18 straight from 1/13-1/30... Expand I just wish this month would end already. I propose we shorten January down to 28 days and increase February to 31 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 28, 2017 Author Share Posted January 28, 2017 Nice light snow shower moving through here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Went far enough below freezing for long enough to freeze the surface of the ground and put a thin ice coating on small bodies of water that are wind sheltered. Went for a mt bike ride this morning and the crust from the mixed up recent frozen precip was mostly supportive enough to ride on top of it without breaking through. There is a lot of moving water in the forest around here at the moment and all of the reservoirs are full and the overflow dams are running strong. Apparently the long term drought has been erased, at least on the surface but not sure how deep the soil moisture is still low. We've had two days now of random flakes falling with no accumulation but it's nice to see the lake streamers making it this far east. Looking forward to a week or so of near normal temps and the ground hardening up some with some potential snow mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Snow flurries falling here, temp 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Welp, tack another day onto the above 32 streak. 37 at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 44 here and at BDR. Another + departure for the month and l Warmer than modeled just 2-3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 6:04 PM, Brian5671 said: 44 here and at BDR. Another + departure for the month and l Warmer than modeled just 2-3 days ago. Expand It's amazing how days that look cold in forecasts and in 850mb temperatures turn out mild. Just a few days ago, we were supposed to be in the upper 30s Sunday with 850s near -10C...now we're pushing mid 40s. I wonder if the lack of Northeast snow cover and warmer than normal SSTs cause this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 7:03 PM, nzucker said: It's amazing how days that look cold in forecasts and in 850mb temperatures turn out mild. Just a few days ago, we were supposed to be in the upper 30s Sunday with 850s near -10C...now we're pushing mid 40s. I wonder if the lack of Northeast snow cover and warmer than normal SSTs cause this. Expand my son told me there's at least 2" of solid ice around the country house in Wild Acres...so far there hasn't been a storm over 5" by the house...That is on the low side...a 5" storm is nothing compared with other years largest snowfalls in that area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Areas north of our region will be the big warm departure winners in January. January departures through 1/28 MSS...+12.1 BTV...+11.6 LGA...+7.0 PHL...+5.8 DCA..+6.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 the warm January analogs for weak la nina's or neutral after an el nino...these analogs had a major storm in either February or March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 8:41 PM, uncle W said: the warm January analogs for weak la nina's or neutral after an el nino...these analogs had a major storm in either February or March... Expand That's VERY encouraging. Hopefully something major (12"+) can pop up in February around here to salvage what has been a very lackluster winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 10:04 PM, BombsAway1288 said: That's VERY encouraging. Hopefully something major (12"+) can pop up in February around here to salvage what has been a very lackluster winter Expand January 2017 looks like January 1993... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 I continue to be quite intrigued by the potential stratospheric progression over the next couple weeks, which may lead to situation whereby NAM values reach their minima in the second half of February into the first half of March. The models are slowly but surely beginning to detect what I've been noting over the past week concerning the more effective wave-2 follow up, subsequent to the initial ongoing w1/displacement event. The susceptibility of the stratospheric vortex to further attacks will be increased via the w1, but it will be insufficient insofar as significant tropospheric geopotential height reversal in the NAM/NAO domains. However, the wave-2 precursor should induce an upward propagating splitting wave, possibly in the 2/8-2/15 period. Dual action from the Eurasian and Pacific sides could effectuate a fairly rapid tropospheric response by mid February and onward. I am not yet at the inflection point of pulling the trigger on this evolution definitively, in terms of stratospheric progression and subsequent tropospheric response, but my confidence on the probability of its occurrence is increasing. The resultant impacts could be our most negative NAO/AO period of the winter, circa 2/15-3/15. The NAO and AO are neutral to positive for the first half of Feb. As far as the synoptic set-ups for snow prior to 2/15, 2/6 still looks like a time frame to monitor for a moderate event. I am not as interested in 2/6 as I was in prior days, but it still holds potential certainly. Regardless, an intriguing period of tracking from a meteorological, academic perspective at the very least. Changes are clearly afoot with the BDC and O3 transport, although the WQBO will attempt to destructively interfere, its modulation will be lessened by the double-jab wave flux. I expect stratospheric charts to become more impressive again in the D10+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 I also forgot to note that the concurrent MJO pulse reaching possibly phase 8 circa 2/12 should work synergistically with the w2, lending further credence to the possible -NAO/AO development Feb 15+ with the more significant storm risk (maybe) coming thereafter due to lag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Last 32F or below reading in Central Park was 9am on Monday, Jan 16th. 36F now at midnight, Monday, Jan 30th. This is going on 14 days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 5:12 AM, pazzo83 said: Last 32F or below reading in Central Park was 9am on Monday, Jan 16th. 36F now at midnight, Monday, Jan 30th. This is going on 14 days now. Expand Streak finally ended today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Several stations set new records for the most January days with the minimum temperatures staying above freezing. BDR...16 days...#1 ISP....14 days...#1 LGA...21 days...#3 JFK...19 days....#1..tie NYC..19 days....#4...tie EWR..18 days....#2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 12:36 PM, bluewave said: Several stations set new records for the most January days with the minimum temperatures staying above freezing. BDR...16 days...#1 ISP....14 days...#1 LGA...21 days...#3 JFK...19 days....#1..tie NYC..19 days....#4...tie EWR..18 days....#2 Expand impressive. Seems that night time lows drove the warmth (most stations at +6 to +7) versus big departures during the day (outside of 1 or 2 days) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 3:56 PM, Brian5671 said: impressive. Seems that night time lows drove the warmth (most stations at +6 to +7) versus big departures during the day (outside of 1 or 2 days) Expand From the preliminary numbers, BDR is +6.3 on the daily high and +8.4 on the minimum for a +7.2 mean departure so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 6:07 PM, bluewave said: From the preliminary numbers, BDR is +6.3 on the daily high and +8.4 on the minimum for a +7.2 mean departure so far. Expand IF BDR were to get a couple of inches of snow out of tomorrow's system, it would be an interesting month, +7 yet 3 measureable snow events totaling 8-10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 6:29 PM, Brian5671 said: IF BDR were to get a couple of inches of snow out of tomorrow's system, it would be an interesting month, +7 yet 3 measureable snow events totaling 8-10 inches. Expand The milder temps will not effect the snowfall total like it would further south, especially 40 south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Had the ground whitened from a real snow shower and not just light flakes for the first time this winter. It has since melted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 6:29 PM, Brian5671 said: IF BDR were to get a couple of inches of snow out of tomorrow's system, it would be an interesting month, +7 yet 3 measureable snow events totaling 8-10 inches. Expand We are already at record levels of snowfall for it being this warm in January. This is the first time that JFK finished with above normal snowfall for it being so mild. Closest Januaries at to currently monthly average 1990...39.4...1.4" 2016...39.1...11.1"....ties for 4th warmest on record through 1/29 2006...39.1...2.1" 2002...38.9...4.1" 1949...38.1...5.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 6:54 PM, WEATHERBUFF said: The milder temps will not effect the snowfall total like it would further south, especially 40 south. Expand Still pretty impressive that the NYC stations can see around 10 inches of snow within such a warm pattern though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 7:17 PM, JerseyWx said: Still pretty impressive that the NYC stations can see around 10 inches of snow within such a warm pattern though. Expand it would make sense for it to happen in Jan. Normals are as low as they get, so you could still have a big +++ departure and get some snow. Much harder to do in Dec, Feb and March. A +7 in Feb means alot of days in the 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 7:17 PM, JerseyWx said: Still pretty impressive that the NYC stations can see around 10 inches of snow within such a warm pattern though. Expand Yes but philly and dc have not done too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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