January 2017 Discussion & Observations

[dmillz25]

4 days away. Let's hope for a good January snow wise

[PB GFI]

Coast to coast cold on the EPS day 8 thru 15  2 M anomalies days 8 thru 15 .

The EPS is brutal country wide once past the 5th .

Its not a transient cold shot according to the EPS.

 

The map could prob be found on twitter etc.

 

 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, PB GFI said:

Coast to coast cold on the EPS day 8 thru 15  2 M anomalies days 8 thru 15 .

The EPS is brutal country wide once past the 5th .

Its not a transient cold shot according to the EPS.

 

The map could prob be found on twitter etc.

 

 

The general +PDO sig may be helping us out with the more -EPO than we typically see with La Ninas. We got about 10 below normal days out of the 

last big EPO drop earlier in December. So it will be interesting to see if we can do similar to that from early to mid-January.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

The general +PDO sig may be helping us out with the more -EPO than we typically see with La Ninas. We got about 10 below normal days out of the 

last big EPO drop earlier in December. So it will be interesting to see if we can do similar to that from early to mid-January.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The PDO+ may lead to increased PNA+ patterns as the winter progresses.

[packbacker]

Will be interesting if this winter progresses towards the stronger nina/wQBO winters like Isotherm suspects.  The wNina/wQBO winters got progressively colder into Feb/March where the sNina's were bloodbaths in Feb.  The GEFS is wanting to erode the -EPO and EPS seems to want to hold onto it.  Looking at the analogs, assuming we follow a canonical nina/wQBO pattern, it's good to see the ridging trying to build down from Scand. down to Greenland like the GEFS is showing.   But, would like to see the -EPO hang on, obviously.  The EPS is so extreme it's hard to believe but we shall see.

The SST's are so pathetic for a wNina it's also hard to imagine the tropical nina forcing lasting all winter and maybe PDO has more influence.... 

[PB GFI]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

The general +PDO sig may be helping us out with the more -EPO than we typically see with La Ninas. We got about 10 below normal days out of the 

last big EPO drop earlier in December. So it will be interesting to see if we can do similar to that from early to mid-January.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This time there's no loading phase . In December we first had to erase  PAC AN anomalies in Canada. 

This time the cold air is already sitting throughout W NAMER so the very first NEG is cold and I think its here for 2 weeks .

I will wait to judge the period after Jan 20 , but the period between the 5 - 20 is cold and could b active .

[donsutherland1]

The big rise in the AO and forecast sharp decline is similar to what happened in winter 2004-05. January has potential to be exciting if the AO and EPO forecasts are reasonably accurate.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Hopefully, that will be the case going forward. Seems like +PNA intervals during La Ninas tend to have our best snowfall potential like we saw in mid-December.

I agree. I believe most of the big January snowstorms occurred with a PNA+.

[uncle W]

big snowstorms during la nina or weak negative years...pna was  negative for the 3/3/1960 storm...2/16/1996...12/26/2010...2/13/2014...storms with a very positive pna...12/11-12/1960...1/19-20/1961...12/30/2000...1/26/2011...1/21/2014...the nao was positive 9 of 16 times...the ao was positive six times...12/60, 1/96, 12/00, 1/11 are the storms with all three indices in favorable positions...

snowstorm...date......AO......PNA......NAO......Enso/MEI....

12" 03/18/1956....0.470....0.186.....-0.225.....La Nina
14" 12/21/1959....1.266....0.114......1.032.....Neutral-
15" 03/03/1960...-1.265...-0.834......0.249.....Neutral-
15" 12/11/1960...-0.343....1.527.....-0.316.....Neutral-
10" 01/19/1961...-1.506....1.587......0.392.....Neutral-
18" 02/03/1961....0.621....0.489.....-0.126.....Neutral-
15" 02/06/1967....1.180....0.732......0.230.....Weak La Nina
20" 01/08/1996...-1.200....0.447.....-0.392.....Weak La Nina
11" 02/16/1996....0.163...-0.421......0.534.....Weak La Nina
12" 12/30/2000...-2.354....1.075.....-0.537.....Weak La Nina
27" 02/11/2006...-0.156....1.658......0.136.....Neutral-
20" 12/26/2010...-2.631...-0.284.....-0.834.....La Nina
19" 01/26/2011...-1.683....1.233.....-0.142.....La Nina

11" 02/09/2013...-0.700....0.403......0.219.....neutral-

11" 01/21/2014...-1.843....1.172......0.137.....neutral-

10" 02/13/2014....0.182...-1.097......0.690.....neutral-

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, PB GFI said:

 

This time there's no loading phase . In December we first had to erase  PAC AN anomalies in Canada. 

This time the cold air is already sitting throughout W NAMER so the very first NEG is cold and I think its here for 2 weeks .

I will wait to judge the period after Jan 20 , but the period between the 5 - 20 is cold and could b active .

The 0z EPS is back to a shorter duration of cold as the SE Ridge returns again. So I am not sold yet on how many below normal days

we can get yet with this -EPO pulse. We generally need more ridging over the top across the pole than the models are showing

with a -PNA to maintain the cold for longer than 5-10 day stretches. 

[PB GFI]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 0z EPS is back to a shorter duration of cold as the SE Ridge returns again. So I am not sold yet on how many below normal days

we can get yet with this -EPO pulse. We generally need more ridging over the top across the pole than the models are showing

with a -PNA to maintain the cold for longer.

 

Chris , its wrong . It's the exact same thing it has done every day over the last 6 days .

go back 6 days ago , then look at the new day 9

go back 5 days ago and look at the new day 10 

go back 4 days ago and look at the new day 11 

go back 3 days ago and look at the new day 12

When you see the EPS do this , you have to ask yourself why , its the model error.

It loves to drive the trough west of the Rockies , the last 5 days the EPO and WPO were positive , so it made sense  this week and the first few days Jan .

Now  look at the height field buldging poleward through Alaska,  that argues for a trough towards the lakes .

 

Now look at the WPO. That NEG argures for a trough , so that should help mute the ridge .

Both of those major PAC teleconnections are still  NEG day 15 

You cant just buy the same error when the EPO and WPO are NEG , we had this exact convo 4 days ago and look.at the correction in the new day 9 to 13 .

Go back and read what you wrote and see the model error / again not your error the EPS.

I dont just look at models , I look at why they could be wrong.

This is a 10 to 15 day  period not 4 days .

That ridge is always going to be there , but its a low height ridge in the SE once HP is reestablished through the lakes.

 

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Chris , its wrong . It's the exact same thing it has done every day over the last 6 days .

go back 6 days ago , then look at the new day 9

go back 5 days ago and look at the new day 10 

go back 4 days ago and look at the new day 11 

go back 3 days ago and look at the new day 12

When you see the EPS do this , you have to ask yourself why , its the model error.

It loves to drive the trough west of the Rockies , the last 5 days the EPO and WPO were positive , so it made sense  this week and the first few days Jan .

Now  look at the height field buldging poleward through Alaska,  that argues for a trough towards the lakes .

 

Now look at the WPO. That NEG argures for a trough .

Both of those major PAC teleconnections are still  NEG day 15 

You cant just buy the same error when the EPO and WPO are NEG , we had this exact convo 4 days ago and look.at the correction in the new day 9 to 13 .

Go back and read what you wrote and see the model error.

I dont just look at models , I look at why they could be wrong.

This is a 10 to 15 day  period not 4 days 

 

Whether the cold last 5 days or 10 probably won't make that big a difference. We got 10 out of the December -EPO pulse. But with -PNA's which all the 

models agree on, you need the heights to build across the pole like February 2014 and January 1982 for the cold to run most of the month.

[PB GFI]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Whether the cold last 5 days or 10 probably won't make that big a difference. We got 10 out of the December -EPO pulse. But with -PNA's which all the 

models agree on, you need the heights to build across the pole like February 2014 and January 1982 for the cold to run most of the month.

 

Dec 5 thru the 20 was a 15 day BN period. It managed - 3 over 15 days at KNYC .

Yes we got 10 days of actual below , 2 N days and 1 cutter that split the period in half , so 2 days were plus 12 and put .75 on the period .

 

Thats always a risk 

But heres the difference, 15 days , 10 BN 2 N and - 3 came about w a raging +AO while having to  erase a blowtotch in Canada. 

Neither of those exist now , so I adjust colder this time .

 

I dont have to be right , just explaining my reasons for the - 4 period .

 

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Dec 5 thru the 20 was a 15 day BN period. It managed - 3 over 15 days at KNYC .

Yes we got 10 days of actual below , 2 N days and 1 cutter that split the period in half , so 2 days were plus 12 and put .75 on the period .

 

Thats always a risk 

But heres the difference, 15 days , 10 BN 2 N and - 3 came about w a raging +AO while having to  erase a blowtotch in Canada. 

Neither of those exist now , so I adjust colder this time .

 

I dont have to be right , just explaining my reasons for the - 4 period .

 

The actual BN period was from around December 10-20th or the middle of the month. The strong PV over the Arctic prevented the heights

from building across the pole and locking in the cold for a BN month.

[SnowGoose69]

22 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Chris , its wrong . It's the exact same thing it has done every day over the last 6 days .

go back 6 days ago , then look at the new day 9

go back 5 days ago and look at the new day 10 

go back 4 days ago and look at the new day 11 

go back 3 days ago and look at the new day 12

When you see the EPS do this , you have to ask yourself why , its the model error.

It loves to drive the trough west of the Rockies , the last 5 days the EPO and WPO were positive , so it made sense  this week and the first few days Jan .

Now  look at the height field buldging poleward through Alaska,  that argues for a trough towards the lakes .

 

Now look at the WPO. That NEG argures for a trough , so that should help mute the ridge .

Both of those major PAC teleconnections are still  NEG day 15 

You cant just buy the same error when the EPO and WPO are NEG , we had this exact convo 4 days ago and look.at the correction in the new day 9 to 13 .

Go back and read what you wrote and see the model error / again not your error the EPS.

I dont just look at models , I look at why they could be wrong.

This is a 10 to 15 day  period not 4 days .

That ridge is always going to be there , but its a low height ridge in the SE once HP is reestablished through the lakes.

 

The ECMWF really does seem to like dropping the trof into the west.  This was a characteristic of the ECMWF post 2010 upgrade and also occurs on the newest upgrade too it seems.  The one improvement I've seen since the upgrade last winter is that it's less cutter happy than it used to be in the long range.  It constantly used to drive systems into the Lakes beyond Day 7, even when the NATL pattern was completely cutter hostile.  That said I am not totally sold on this pattern shift being of any long duration at all 

[PB GFI]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The actual BN period was from around December 10-20th or the middle of the month. The strong PV over the Arctic prevented the heights

from building across the pole and locking in the cold for a BN month.

The 8 was plus 1 the 9th N and the 21st was - 1 .

The first few days as the trough bullied E it was N .

If you just took the 10 - 20 it was colder than -3 , I added in the warmer front and it was still - 3 because the period was 5 thru 20 , so I had to take the warmer days .

I agree , I want to the heights build this time .

Again , after the 20th , I assume it breaks down again .

And this time at the coast  , I think we snow more than the 2 to 4 we had during that period in December. 

[PB GFI]

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The ECMWF really does seem to like dropping the trof into the west.  This was a characteristic of the ECMWF post 2010 upgrade and also occurs on the newest upgrade too it seems.  The one improvement I've seen since the upgrade last winter is that it's less cutter happy than it used to be in the long range.  It constantly used to drive systems into the Lakes beyond Day 7, even when the NATL pattern was completely cutter hostile.  That said I am not totally sold on this pattern shift being of any long duration at all 

 

It does , and when the EPO and WPO are POS that makes sense .

But here in the 9 to 15 those features are there so I argue the Negative should come through Minnesota not Washington state.

 

That pushes on the ridge.

[Ralph Wiggum]

This cold looks transient to me. I agree with BN but not quite as extended as some are suggesting. And yes, early January BN is colder than early/mid December BN. Pac teleconnections are getting weaker and shorter in favorable duration than once progged several days ago. Also there is little in the way of blocking moving poleward as once looked like a sure bet. On the Atl side, ens were gung ho on a -NAO developing but now looks like the seasonal trend will continue with transient ridging Eastern GL them flattening and progressive as that feature heads to Ireland again and again. The cold, with the help of the Pac, will be BN at times early in January and will suppress the storm track. SE Ridge pops with no -NAO and track shifts West of us. Hope Im wrong and this pattern changes but it seems fairly locked in.

[Ralph Wiggum]

 

It does , and when the EPO and WPO are POS that makes sense .

But here in the 9 to 15 those features are there so I argue the Negative should come through Minnesota not Washington state.

 

That pushes on the ridge.

Agreed, while it also suppresses the storm track. Timing is everything.

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This cold looks transient to me. I agree with BN but not quite as extended as some are suggesting. And yes, early January BN is colder than early/mid December BN. Pac teleconnections are getting weaker and shorter in favorable duration than once progged several days ago. Also there is little in the way of blocking moving poleward as once looked like a sure bet. On the Atl side, ens were gung ho on a -NAO developing but now looks like the seasonal trend will continue with transient ridging Eastern GL them flattening and progressive as that feature heads to Ireland again and again. The cold, with the help of the Pac, will be BN at times early in January and will suppress the storm track. SE Ridge pops with no -NAO and track shifts West of us. Hope Im wrong and this pattern changes but it seems fairly locked in.

None of the guidance has as an intense PV drop into Maine like we saw with the Arctic shot on 12/16. So it doesn't look like we will be able to reach

a daily temperature departure peak as low as that -14 to -15 with this next -EPO pulse.

[PB GFI]

37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Agreed, while it also suppresses the storm track. Timing is everything.

 

The ridge isnt going away in the SE , it will be nice to have if you can have can build a POS accross the higher lattitudes .

My thinking is there is enough NEG in between to set up a nice barroclinic zone .

Hopefully thats E of the APPALACHIANS and S of AC .

 

[donsutherland1]

Less impressive AO forecast this morning. Still, the possibility of an AO-  for early January exists.

[EasternLI]

I don't know, seems to me that the ridging in the epo/wpo region is a bit too far west for us coastal dwellers. Which is allowing the -pna which is forcing the se ridge. I do see a couple ways that we could work with that. One being that the epo/wpo ridge builds poleward enough to force the AO negative. The other would be if we could get help from the NAO. The problem is the QBO is going to try to deconstructively interfere with those scenarios from what I've seen.

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Less impressive AO forecast this morning. Still, the possibility of an AO-  for early January exists.

Yeah, the AO forecasts have been backing off ever since the record AO reversal for OND began in November.

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the AO forecasts have been backing off ever since the record AO reversal for OND began in November.

 

 

 

They have. Without a strongly negative AO, cold shots could be transitory until the PNA goes positive for a sustained period, which probably won't happen until the second half of January and perhaps later. For now, I'm more optimistic about snowfall opportunities in January than a cold monthly anomaly. The potential for the cold is there, but the Atlantic will have to contribute.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

They have. Without a strongly negative AO, cold shots could be transitory until the PNA goes positive for a sustained period, which probably won't happen until the second half of January and perhaps later. For now, I'm more optimistic about snowfall opportunities in January than a cold monthly anomaly. The potential for the cold is there, but the Atlantic will have to contribute.

True. Cases while the PNA was negative like January 82 and February 14 required a strong block building across to the AO region to sustain the cold pattern.

 

[Allsnow]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 0z EPS is back to a shorter duration of cold as the SE Ridge returns again. So I am not sold yet on how many below normal days

we can get yet with this -EPO pulse. We generally need more ridging over the top across the pole than the models are showing

with a -PNA to maintain the cold for longer than 5-10 day stretches. 

The 00z eps took away the neg NAO and just like that the se ridge is back. Gefs have been doing really good this year. Looks like we will have a week to get something done before we go back warm. Wash rinse repeat 

[Sundog]

11 hours ago, uncle W said:

big snowstorms during la nina or weak negative years...pna was  negative for the 3/3/1960 storm...2/16/1996...12/26/2010...2/13/2014...storms with a very positive pna...12/11-12/1960...1/19-20/1961...12/30/2000...1/26/2011...1/21/2014...the nao was positive 9 of 16 times...the ao was positive six times...12/60, 1/96, 12/00, 1/11 are the storms with all three indices in favorable positions...

snowstorm...date......AO......PNA......NAO......Enso/MEI....

12" 03/18/1956....0.470....0.186.....-0.225.....La Nina
14" 12/21/1959....1.266....0.114......1.032.....Neutral-
15" 03/03/1960...-1.265...-0.834......0.249.....Neutral-
15" 12/11/1960...-0.343....1.527.....-0.316.....Neutral-
10" 01/19/1961...-1.506....1.587......0.392.....Neutral-
18" 02/03/1961....0.621....0.489.....-0.126.....Neutral-
15" 02/06/1967....1.180....0.732......0.230.....Weak La Nina
20" 01/08/1996...-1.200....0.447.....-0.392.....Weak La Nina
11" 02/16/1996....0.163...-0.421......0.534.....Weak La Nina
12" 12/30/2000...-2.354....1.075.....-0.537.....Weak La Nina
27" 02/11/2006...-0.156....1.658......0.136.....Neutral-
20" 12/26/2010...-2.631...-0.284.....-0.834.....La Nina
19" 01/26/2011...-1.683....1.233.....-0.142.....La Nina

11" 02/09/2013...-0.700....0.403......0.219.....neutral-

11" 01/21/2014...-1.843....1.172......0.137.....neutral-

10" 02/13/2014....0.182...-1.097......0.690.....neutral-

 

Looking at the value for the PNA for the Boxing Day blizzard, you would have thought there was no ridging in the West for our storm. But there was a very sharp ridge in place that allowed the energy to take such a nosedive as it did. Maybe it was because it was a bit east of the traditional location where you would expect it to result in a +PNA?

[Allsnow]

By January 10th the pattern has completely broken down on the gefs 

[Brian5671]

the fantasy -NAO on the models for the last year has been frustrating to say the least.