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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

buckeyefan1

By buckeyefan1,
in Southeastern States

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

When do you think our next good winter will be ?

When I get time to come hike from Woody Gap to Trey Mtn - I get snowed on every time. So cross fingers my knee is back in full tilt boogie AT shape by next November, and we'll rock!

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, packbacker said:

LOL....You said it's not much different then we have been seeing?   Jan is +7 to +12 across the SE.   They have no blocking, big AK low...seems warm to me.  Even JB said they sucked.   

With that said the weeklies are useless...I didn't say I believe them, just commented on what they showed...torch pattern.  

I didn't agree on "mega torch" that's all. The weeklies are acutually colder than what we've been seeing, so you proved my point. I've talked about how much I trust any model outside Day 10....Euro Day 10 has a 50% verification score, that should tell you enough. I posted on the JMA, not a good look. Bastardized is freaking because his deep cold icebox is in jeopardy, we are still in play for seasonal temps based solely on weeklies that will likely change, so this whole exchange is damn near pointless...but thanks for the "LOL". That's my 3 posts for the day, we'll see ya tomorrow. 

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Snowless in Carrollton

Snowless in Carrollton

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, griteater said:

The Dec 1 to Jan 26 avg of daily AO is +1.332 which is the 4th highest out of 67 years back to '50-'51.  ++AO and La Nina (or weak cool ENSO) is obviously a bad combo...it's even higher than the 2011-2012 winter thus far

1rpxqc.gif

Well dang the number one year was probably my favorite winter of all time. Blizzard of 93 !

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Big changes on GFS and GEFS overnight around day 10-12.

first, the OP is much more south with a Day 9-10 system, with deep cold inbound.

IMG_6159.PNG

The old run had a lakes low with cold stuck in Canada 

IMG_6164.PNG

I mentioned a few days ago I was interested in Jan 6-7ish. The Euro changed too, instead of a west coast trough it now completely killed it, popping a low in the pacific and creating a conus ridge with a shortwave diving through...however, the placement of cold has changed on the 00z EPS. 

IMO this isn't a bad trend, get some cold and confluence to the north. 

imb_ED0F99D7-009F-44BB-B9B8-61F5F1DA86F7.gif

If a low forms just west of the aleutians as depicted on the 06z GEFS to create a couplet with our AK/Russia ridging, there basically has to be ridging on the west teleconnecfing to the ridge, which would bring cold to the east. Still way too early, but good trends in modeling IMO

imb_7CBD456A-13C0-4A75-B0A8-5AFC896EECD9.gif

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

I checked out the ensembles on TT this morning, and the general pattern evolution is not really all that bad.  This post has nothing to do with individual storm threats.  That said, the advertised pattern is not a snowstorm pattern, per se, but it does look (at least at 500 mb) to feature normal to below normal temps in the eastern US in the medium to LR.  I'll post 3 maps for various time periods for the 6Z GEFS.

First, at 192, you can clearly see the Omega ridge, that DT has pointed out several times this winter, that has taken shape out west.  This repeating pattern has effectively kept us out of the icebox this winter by allowing the primary direction of our air masses to be from the Pacific, instead of the arctic.  When you're dealing with a warm Gulf and Atlantic, marginal Pacific air masses won't get the job done in the SE.  You can also see our friend, the AK block, as the key component of the Omega ridge.  Also notice the elongated PV with two distinct centers, one over the pole/Russia and one over SE Canada.  We have a neutral PNA, a +AO and a +NAO, with semi-zonal flow across the US.  With no SER signal, temps should be near normal, I would think.

GEFS198.png

Now, at 300, you can see the evolution of the pattern.  The Omega ridge is breaking/has broken down, and the AK block has weakened substantially and retrograded toward Russia.  But the circulation pattern that was set in motion because of it has evacuated the PV center from Russia, causing the PV to better consolidate over toward our side of the pole.  We have more of a NW component to the flow entering the SE now.  I would guess that temps should respond in a general below normal fashion, although probably not much below normal.  The PNA looks slightly positive, with the AO and NAO still negative.

GEFS300.png

Finally, at 384, the PV has consolidated and is NE/north-central Canada.  The AK block has dissipated, and the flow continues to enter the SE from the NW.  We still have fairly strong Pacific component, as the strong Pac jet continues, aided by a GOA low that has taken shape, hopefully a temporary feature.  The PNA looks neutral, with some ridging in the EPO space, while the NAO and AO continue to be positive.  Overall, this continues to look like a normal to below normal temp pattern in the SE, with still no SER signal in place.  I do not know what surface temps will look like exactly, but I would imagine that we'd have frequent highs moving through and bouts of clouds and light precip from time to time.  I do not see a signal for a big SE winter storm (or a big storm anywhere in the US, for that matter), although a minor event shouldn't be ruled out.  I also do not see any indication of a torch pattern.

GEFS384.png

The 0Z GEFS basically generally agrees with this assessment, as does the GEPS.  I can't see the EPS post 240, so I don't know about that.  And hopefully, Jon will post the CFS for us.  Assuming this depiction is close to reality, I don't know where the pattern evolves to from here.  But hopefully, with the PV on our side of the world, we can have a shot or two at something down the line and avoid the torch.  At some point, the pattern will change.  As long as the coldest air is on our side of the globe, we're at least in the game, especially if we can luck into some blocking.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, packbacker said:

What happened to Brick?  He can't post during work hours anymore?

Great writeup BTW.

Thanks!  He said they were telling employees they had to do work at work and not surf the internet so much.  Such a move is detrimental to weather posting production.

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