Jon Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 As expected, CFSv2 back to seeing cold on the east. Good sign considering previous runs. We'll see if she holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 36 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: It looks normal here, except over Phil's house LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Surprised to see the Euro model flurries for Sunday/Monday clipper deal. Big change from previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 MJO...GEFS has it going into 8 and Euro has weak amplitude 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 What's got into the GFS...nice SW that wasn't there in previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: What's got into the GFS...nice SW that wasn't there in previous runs. Was looking at the same thing. The 6z and 0z were nearly identical. Guess the new data is positive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Southern Track said: Was looking at the same thing. The 6z and 0z were nearly identical. Guess the new data is positive? Yeah...I don't know. It ends up amounting to nothing but it's the only show in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said: I feel the euro is not as good as it once was. It wentry downhill in 2011 after their so called upgrade. In 2011 it missed badly on two storms and in our area of the northern hemisphere has been an average model. still has the highest 500mb verification score Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 26 minutes ago, Southern Track said: Was looking at the same thing. The 6z and 0z were nearly identical. Guess the new data is positive? Mega - Cold-Rain clipper special right there! Money! Too bad my highs Sun/Mon are in the 50s! Clipper rain FTL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 35 minutes ago, packbacker said: What's got into the GFS...nice SW that wasn't there in previous runs. Ridge axis is all wrong, won't allow anything to dig and it should remain flat and dry. Shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 PNA now looks to stay positive -- good AO looks to go negative, but a few members do stay positive -- good NAO looks to go slight positive, from being slightly negative --not horrible but not good http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Out to day 9 on the 12z GFS and it looks more like the euro. Warmer(than 6z) zero 850 temps being pushed towards the northern states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 GFS is back to furnace mode, it did lead the way with the AK ridge on roids but Euro has led the way of not spitting out fantasy cold patterns. Curious to see if this winter has a chance at being one of the warmest winters....a year after one of the warmest winters. Well...definitely pre-emergent before Valentines this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 This is still shaping up to be one of the top 2-3 worst winters I ever remember. Just nothing after nothing after nothing to even track. Warm, warm, warm, warm. Fake LR cold, and just sustained unfavorable index configurations. I hope this is like the blow off top for warm winters before the ice age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 GFS says the strat was pretty to look at while it lasted. Back over the pole fairly quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: GFS is back to furnace mode, it did lead thew with the AK ridge on roids but Euro has led the way of not spitting out fantasy cold patterns. Curious to see if this winter has a chance at being one of the warmest winters....a year after one of the warmest winters. Well...definitely pre-emergent before Valentines this winter. Yeah, definitely don't buy that look (the warmth and ridging at 500mb) with that AK ridge. That run is BS, we'll take a look at the ensembles here in the next hour. If the models hold the AK ridge (in the orientation as displayed on the GEFS) this won't happen. If the EPS wins out, however, we're in for it. Still - better to understand why this run showed warmth, clear as day at 500mh NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Fantasy popping at 360, but.... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017012512&fh=360 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: This is still shaping up to be one of the top 2-3 worst winters I ever remember. Just nothing after nothing after nothing to even track. Warm, warm, warm, warm. Fake LR cold, and just sustained unfavorable index configurations. I hope this is like the blow off top for warm winters before the ice age. That sounds exactly like the winter of 2011-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: GFS says the strat was pretty to look at while it lasted. Back over the pole fairly quickly... Unicorns and strat warming! They are real , I promise! SW is used out of sheer desperation and has never worked in our favor! JB is counting on it to save his crap winter forecast, so there's your sign ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, Jon said: Yeah, definitely don't buy that look (the warmth and ridging at 500mb) with that AK ridge. That run is BS, we'll take a look at the ensembles here in the next hour. If the models hold the AK ridge (in the orientation as displayed on the GEFS) this won't happen. If the EPS wins out, however, we're in for it. Still - better to understand why this run showed warmth, clear as day at 500mh NH. With the parade of pacific waves it beefs up the Bearing ridge but then drives it over to Russia. We are left with no blocking, +EPO and SER. This upcoming potential you called for was only interesting when some semblance of blocking showing up. But the theme this winter has been strong very short duration -EPO with SER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: This is still shaping up to be one of the top 2-3 worst winters I ever remember. Just nothing after nothing after nothing to even track. Warm, warm, warm, warm. Fake LR cold, and just sustained unfavorable index configurations. I hope this is like the blow off top for warm winters before the ice age. I think most have accepted this, though I didn think we would have another 5-7 day window between the 7-15th but that looks less likely. If we are going to suck then let's really suck. This winter will join the likes of 06, 08, 12, 13...craptastic. Question is...how are weak +ENSO/+QBO winters (17/18). My guess is non-blocky and we will somehow have to deal with a SER in a non -ENSO I am sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: With the parade of pacific waves it beefs up the Bearing ridge but then drives it over to Russia. We are left with no blocking, +EPO and SER. This upcoming potential you called for was only interesting when some semblance of blocking showing up. But the theme this winter has been strong very short duration -EPO with SER. Yeah, I don't agree with it driving over Russia so I don't agree with the 500mb look of the 12z OP, that orientation would certainly hang a trough over the west but I'll have to wait to see if the GEFS bites. But I agree, have said it and agreed with you...sustained blocking for any duration is out of the question. We will get snow because we will get lucky, like we did last time, with a brief ridge and a good s/w at the same time some confluence swings down. That's how this winter will be, up and down. We're likely to miss out on those opportunities, it's the SE...but you can still "identify" the opportunities models are hinting on. JB needs to give sustained cold and stormy a rest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 We will score in February , I promise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: We will score in February , I promise! A birdie on the back 9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 24 minutes ago, packbacker said: I think most have accepted this, though I didn think we would have another 5-7 day window between the 7-15th but that looks less likely. If we are going to suck then let's really suck. This winter will join the likes of 06, 08, 12, 13...craptastic. Question is...how are weak +ENSO/+QBO winters (17/18). My guess is non-blocky and we will somehow have to deal with a SER in a non -ENSO I am sure. We'll find a way to screw it up. I'm sure the QBO will be off the charts in the wrong direction. I am hoping we get a couple of 80F days soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 33 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: That sounds exactly like the winter of 2011-12. Yes, that one was horrible. At least part of the fun of winter is tracking storms with you all, even if they don't pan out. This winter has been not much fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 12z GEFS backed off the cold but overall not a bad look, especially after day 14 (yes, I know only 15 days away!!!) This is almost preferred to the previous runs of the GEFS, honestly, because Canada is still cold, but doesn't elongate the trough over the US with the massive cold dump as seen on previous runs. This allows a +PNA to form on the east coast Day 14, which is what we're going to need this winter without blocking to get the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Well we now have a forecasted technical SSW on the Euro at day 8 with reversal at 10hpa.Will it move down to the trop and where will it set up is to be watched but these things take usually 2 weeks or so to feel any effects.There's better agreement on AO/NAO effects if it can reverse at 30hpa if you read research on it. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Well we now have a forecasted technical SSW on the Euro at day 8 with reversal at 10hpa.Will it move down to the trop and where will it set up is to be watched but these things take usually 2 weeks or so to feel any effects.There's better agreement on AO/NAO effects if it can reverse at 30hpa if you read research on it. Carry on. What are you thinking in terms of solar impacts for the next couple of winters? We're entering a pretty substantial min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Well we now have a forecasted technical SSW on the Euro at day 8 with reversal at 10hpa.Will it move down to the trop and where will it set up is to be watched but these things take usually 2 weeks or so to feel any effects.There's better agreement on AO/NAO effects if it can reverse at 30hpa if you read research on it. Carry on. So we wouldn't feel any effects until 2 weeks after day 8 which would put us at almost March ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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