griteater Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Wow said: In the N Atlantic the GFS and Euro are complete opposites yet both manage to bring a big snow event. Yeah that's interesting. Euro h5 look much preferred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Euro snow maps are bunk. The 850 fzg line is over N MS/AL/GA and HP building overhead by 240 hrs. THis is a massive snow for AR/TN/NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Is this the type of system with snow/rain cutoff. or more of a transition zone with fzra and ip? Tight rain/snow. Overrunning event with little mid level WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Reminder: The 540 line on the posted map is the 1000-500 heights not the 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Yeah, ice is very limited, and I'd imagine sleet is too. EuroWx doesn't actually have separate sleet maps though, so I can't be sure. Not really a big deal though; specifics are pointless 8-9 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Wow said: Tight rain/snow. Overrunning event with little mid level WAA. It appears the mix/freezing rain type precip is only about 1 tier of counties wide on p-type maps. Long duration sliders are the best producers for the Little Rock to Raleigh I-40 corridor. Plenty of moisture without the 850 warm push from amped up storms that causes widespread mixing issues. Like that the Euro has the second wave dropping down the Rockies, it could also have a similar outcome to the GFS if it went 48 more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthGaWinter Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 850s are close for most of us. Plenty of time to iron out details. But that run verbatim would make me, a lot of you happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Early call for---"Who's staying up for the Euro 0z run!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 24 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I understand that the answer may be too complex for a layman but why is the 500 millibar level so much better for understanding what is happening. I also see 850 mb heights referenced quite a bit. Take a look at these links...plenty of info there http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/104/ http://www.theweatherprediction.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaredcohen Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Obviously we're looking at long range models here, but with GFS and ECMWF both pointing to a major snow event, does that significantly increase confidence going forward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, jaredcohen said: Obviously we're looking at long range models here, but with GFS and ECMWF both pointing to a major snow event, does that significantly increase confidence going forward? The idea is the 500mb look/pattern that we could potentially get supports Wintry precipitation chances like we saw from modeling today. Still no specific threat, but the latest Euro 500mb look is very good and heightens the chance for Wintry precipitation as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just assuming but that storm on the Euro would keep going well into D11 and central NC would most likely be all snow at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, Shawn said: The idea is the 500mb look/pattern that we could potentially get supports Wintry precipitation chances like we saw from modeling today. Still no specific threat, but the latest Euro 500mb look is very good and heightens the chance for Wintry precipitation as a whole. Agreed, best look we've had in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, jaredcohen said: Obviously we're looking at long range models here, but with GFS and ECMWF both pointing to a major snow event, does that significantly increase confidence going forward? I'd say no at this point. I think the GFS and EURO are keying on two different pieces of energy so timing is all jacked up to be danged. If they both key in on the same system and show multiple hits for a few days then we got something. But yeah what we have now is a timeframe to keep our eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 7 minutes ago, jaredcohen said: Obviously we're looking at long range models here, but with GFS and ECMWF both pointing to a major snow event, does that significantly increase confidence going forward? Got to get this look within 48 hours of the event as seen in the red text below Anything and everything can and usually does go wrong in the southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 8-10 day avg from 12z Euro / GFS / CMC (from left to right). Euro is definitely preferred, especially over the North Atlantic into Greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 9 minutes ago, griteater said: 8-10 day avg from 12z Euro / GFS / CMC (from left to right). Euro is definitely preferred, especially over the North Atlantic into Greenland I'm hoping though Grit the EURO op is showing what the GEFS is doing, with more -NAO. The last GFS run didn't show that, but I think the idea may be for more blocking. ENS has more too, GEPS has the least I think. A lot can be said about the importance of the -NAO or the lack thereof, but I don't think it's a coincidence that when we get it modeled, good stuff starts showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Doubt we get an 18z run from the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just small differences that I can tell at a glance on this run of the Euro Ens mean. A little more storm signal with the southern plains wave for day 9-10, and it looks a little colder in N MS/AL/GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 With that double block showing up and hopefully maintaining its gonna get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Doubt we get an 18z run from the GFS 12/8/2016 12z is gospel now. no more model runs are needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 about 22/51 ens members with snow for nc on the eps out to 234hr. some big hits and quite a few whiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, SN_Lover said: 12/8/2016 12z is gospel now. no more model runs are needed. Haha we can skip 18z but I hope they correct the problem by 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Never seen a day 10 EPS run with mean snowfall of 2-4" all the way down to ATL...I have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 8 minutes ago, packbacker said: Never seen a day 10 EPS run with mean snowfall of 2-4" all the way down to ATL...I have now. WBell has about 1 inch day 10 for Atlanta on the mean....you see that on a diff service? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Euro control run also has a big snow day 8-10 from Oklahoma, N Arkansas, TN, NC, VA, far NE GA, far N SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, griteater said: Euro control run also has a big snow day 8-10 from Oklahoma, N Arkansas, TN, NC, VA, far NE GA, far N SC Take a look at member 42.. I DARE YOU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Take a look at member 42.. I DARE YOU lol is that 26 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, No snow for you said: lol is that 26 inches. My eyes (and heart) can't un-see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 I believe the entire board would be happy with e26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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