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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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1 minute ago, Wow said:

Tight rain/snow.  Overrunning event with little mid level WAA.

It appears the mix/freezing rain type precip is only about 1 tier of counties wide on p-type maps.  Long duration sliders are the best producers for the Little Rock to Raleigh I-40 corridor. Plenty of moisture without the 850 warm push from amped up storms that causes widespread mixing issues. Like that the Euro has the second wave dropping down the Rockies, it could also have a similar outcome to the GFS if it went 48 more hours.

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24 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I understand that the answer may be too complex for a layman but why is the 500 millibar level so much better for understanding what is happening.  I also see 850 mb heights referenced quite a bit.

Take a look at these links...plenty of info there

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/104/

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/

 

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1 minute ago, jaredcohen said:

Obviously we're looking at long range models here, but with GFS and ECMWF both pointing to a major snow event, does that significantly increase confidence going forward?

The idea is the 500mb look/pattern that we could potentially get supports Wintry precipitation chances like we saw from modeling today.  Still no specific threat, but the latest Euro 500mb look is very good and heightens the chance for Wintry precipitation as a whole.

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2 minutes ago, Shawn said:

The idea is the 500mb look/pattern that we could potentially get supports Wintry precipitation chances like we saw from modeling today.  Still no specific threat, but the latest Euro 500mb look is very good and heightens the chance for Wintry precipitation as a whole.

Agreed, best look we've had in a long time.

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5 minutes ago, jaredcohen said:

Obviously we're looking at long range models here, but with GFS and ECMWF both pointing to a major snow event, does that significantly increase confidence going forward?

I'd say no at this point.  I think the GFS and EURO are keying on two different pieces of energy so timing is all jacked up to be danged.  If they both key in on the same system and show multiple hits for a few days then we got something.  

But yeah what we have now is a timeframe to keep our eye on.  

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7 minutes ago, jaredcohen said:

Obviously we're looking at long range models here, but with GFS and ECMWF both pointing to a major snow event, does that significantly increase confidence going forward?

Got to get this look within 48 hours of the event as seen in the red text below  :lmao:

Anything and everything can and usually does go wrong in the southeast

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9 minutes ago, griteater said:

8-10 day avg from 12z Euro / GFS / CMC (from left to right).  Euro is definitely preferred, especially over the North Atlantic into Greenland

 

I'm hoping though Grit the EURO op is showing what the GEFS is doing, with more -NAO.  The last GFS run didn't show that, but I think the idea may be for more blocking. ENS has more too, GEPS has the least I think.  

A lot can be said about the importance of the -NAO or the lack thereof, but I don't think it's a coincidence that when we get it modeled, good stuff starts showing up. 

  gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_40.png

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