mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Clipper gonna save our winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: The 6z Navgem looked ominous day 7... Yeah, we've had enough rain, we need to dry out ! The para GFS is awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Yeah guys the last 2 runs of the GFS have improved with the pass of the 500mb wave for the clipper. A few benchmarks to look for based on some past NW flow waves that have produced accumulating snow are: 1) positive tilt of the shortwave trough axis extending roughly from Michigan to Arkansas, 2) a consolidated 500mb vort max that tracks from Arkansas to southern South Carolina, 3) weak sfc low forming in SC and tracking to the south of Cape Hatteras, with an inverted trough axis extending back toward the SC upstate...you can see the trough axis here extending from the upstate to off the NC coast (curve in the isobars) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 The period I'm watching is around Feb 6-7 just based on global modeling ensembles. Anything before then seems to be northern stream based/cold/clipper type pattern. We'll see by Jan 27 day 10 period should get in range on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 CMC is dry with the clipper. UKMet looks similar to GFS with the shortwave pass at 120-144, but hard to tell on the specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 21 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Clipper gonna save our winter! Scattered flurries ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 27 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Clipper gonna save our winter! I'd chase a clipper any day. Guaranteed flakes coming down like feathers, decent rates with the cold. Much better than getting sleeted all night. Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 I remember the Clipper from ~2005 time frame that caused a massive gridlock in the Raleigh area and roads became bad really quickly.. Even though it was a small small amount of snow. Can anyone post the setup of that system compared to our current set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 9 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I remember the Clipper from ~2005 time frame that caused a massive gridlock in the Raleigh area and roads became bad really quickly.. Even though it was a small small amount of snow. Can anyone post the setup of that system compared to our current set up? The air was a lot colder for that one! That's why is was gridlock with so little snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 10 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I remember the Clipper from ~2005 time frame that caused a massive gridlock in the Raleigh area and roads became bad really quickly.. Even though it was a small small amount of snow. Can anyone post the setup of that system compared to our current set up? Looks like a weak wave streaking in from the NW. You can loop thru the charts here... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2005/us0120.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2005/us0121.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 12z GEFS says to the op, "what clipper?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 7 minutes ago, packfan98 said: 12z GEFS says to the op, "what clipper?" Oh , darn! NAVGEM still onboard, so we are good and CMC! $$$$$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 12 minutes ago, griteater said: Looks like a weak wave streaking in from the NW. You can loop thru the charts here... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2005/us0120.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2005/us0121.php General description: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20050119/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 43 minutes ago, griteater said: CMC is dry with the clipper. UKMet looks similar to GFS with the shortwave pass at 120-144, but hard to tell on the specifics. Was hoping youd have some more concrete ukmet news. It would sniff this out (phase option) before any other model. Maybe Doc will throw a bone in a few. Rooting for the full fleged phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 hour ago, Jon said: The period I'm watching is around Feb 6-7 just based on global modeling ensembles. Anything before then seems to be northern stream based/cold/clipper type pattern. We'll see by Jan 27 day 10 period should get in range on the Euro. Yeah definitely looking long range at this point. However I'd say Raleigh does get nice little events out of clippers I think...and they're far enough to the east to benefit from redevelopment off the coast. CLT is too west tucked nice and comfy underneath the mountains. If we were to see flurries I'd call that a huge win. Definitely want to see the long range GEFS pattern come to fruition. 12Z seemed to hold on to it nicely with a bigger west coast ridge. Would like to see the Greenland ridging get stronger and stronger each run though. Looks like it weakened just a bit this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Euro is way east with the trough axis...no comparison to GFS/UKMet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 GFS/UKMet/CMC all look similar with the eastern trough at 120....Euro is well east/northeast of these 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 GFS Mean was east of the Op run too though....a blend isn't very good....need the south and west solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: GFS/UKMet/CMC all look similar with the eastern trough at 120....Euro is well east/northeast of these 3 Does the EURO have some type of known bias for this setup. I don't recall one. I know that the Euro leads the pack in regards to 5h setup in the day 5-7 time period. It's a little curious to why it is an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Just now, packfan98 said: Does the EURO have some type of known bias for this setup. I don't recall one. I know that the Euro leads the pack in regards to 5h setup in the day 5-7 time period. It's a little curious to why it is an outlier. I don't know of one, but it would have to be a big Euro miss for this to work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: I don't know of one, but it would have to be a big Euro miss for this to work You are correct. My gut feeling was that there would be enough digging and interaction between the streams to get some flakes to fly outside the mountains. A heavy dusting would let you be the big winner. There is still a little more time for consensus to form. I will say that the Euro looks nothing like yesterday's run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 12 minutes ago, griteater said: I don't know of one, but it would have to be a big Euro miss for this to work Dang, we aren't going to score with a unicorn, magic clipper ?? Shocker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 20 minutes ago, griteater said: I don't know of one, but it would have to be a big Euro miss for this to work Big difference down the road at day 10. Euro has 850 zero temps running along the northern states and the GFS from SC to Colorado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Just looked at the CMC and it does look interesting at day 10. Precip moving in from the west, surface temps at or below freezing, and 850 freezing temps running through NC & moving southwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 8 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Big difference down the road at day 10. Euro has 850 zero temps running along the northern states and the GFS from SC to Colorado. Yep, Euro is about as crappy a run for snow as you can get in mid-winter. Not even close to anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Just now, FallsLake said: Just looked at the CMC and it does look interesting at day 10. Precip moving in from the west, surface temps at or below freezing, and 850 freezing temps running through NC & moving southwards. The GFS has had this system for days since it goes out farther with it's run, and has had both wintery and rainy scenarios. The Euro was very warm. Let see what happens in the next 2-3 days. A storm signal is there in the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 If it ain't coming from up out of the gulf, I ain't interested..on to March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yep, Euro is about as crappy a run for snow as you can get in mid-winter. Not even close to anything. Euro has big AO/AK block, Greenland block with 50/50 and we are still a furnace. Some winters it just wants to be warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 9 minutes ago, WarmNose said: If it ain't coming from up out of the gulf, I ain't interested..on to March That's a good way of looking at things in your neck of the woods. There are exceptions, but that's the way most of us will score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Euro has big AO/AK block, Greenland block with 50/50 and we are still a furnace. Some winters it just wants to be warm... So I guess the ridge bridge traps in the warm air instead of the cold air in the continental US? Wouldn't that be something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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