cbmclean Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: Outside of the 01-02 winter I'm not sure I've ever seen trofing in place for any lengthy stretch with above normal temps. For one who is still learning, what mechanism caused above-normal temps with a mean trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Lol at 6z GFS! Clippergeddon on the 30th and on on the 6th, 996mb bomb over CAE! Nice rainer and mtns get plastered! It'll teen SE, no worries ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 55 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Lol at 6z GFS! Clippergeddon on the 30th and on on the 6th, 996mb bomb over CAE! Nice rainer and mtns get plastered! It'll teen SE, no worries ! Total snow for the clipper on the 30th. We'll have to watch this closely. But as other have stated we need to get a lot closer to the potential (minor) event to get a better idea if this can work. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=asnow24&runtime=2017012406&fh=156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 45 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Lol at 6z GFS! Clippergeddon on the 30th and on on the 6th, 996mb bomb over CAE! Nice rainer and mtns get plastered! It'll teen SE, no worries ! I know it's a model run, but in reality a low could indeed center/move across CAE during that period but would be surprised if it were 996 or 'bombing' at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Maybe, just maybe.... From RAH: Sunday Night-Monday: The latest 00Z guidance suggests that Canadianshortwave energy digging southward through the Upper Great Lakes and western Ohio Valley on Sunday may dig further south/west than in previous runs. As a result, light precipitation (and ptype issues) may accompany the deeper /more amplified/ upper level wave progged to track across the region Sunday night/Monday. -Vincent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 this would be nice hope it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: this would be nice hope it pans out. Yeah, congrats Gatlinburg and DC! That's a horrible track ! Verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: this would be nice hope it pans out. It's nice to see a storm signal but for 95% of this board this depiction would need to improve (more south / SE). But this is way off in fantasy land... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 ^ Hahaha Mr. Wolf that's as bad as a State/Carolina game in the Dean Dome. Terrible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 8 minutes ago, FallsLake said: It's nice to see a storm signal but for 95% of this board this depiction would need to improve (more south / SE). But this is way off in fantasy land... Some didn't learn lessons of the last storm I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: Total snow for the clipper on the 30th. We'll have to watch this closely. But as other have stated we need to get a lot closer to the potential (minor) event to get a better idea if this can work. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=asnow24&runtime=2017012406&fh=156 lol that dry circle in NW NC that's is where BF lives, So I can see this working out!!! down slopes here from clippers 99 out of 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 CFS will likely flip a bit colder tomorrow on the public monthly maps....fwiw. Feb 8+ looks good. This last week of runs is important to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 6 minutes ago, Jon said: CFS will likely flip a bit colder tomorrow on the public monthly maps....fwiw. Feb 8+ looks good. This last week of runs is important to watch. He said " runs" huh, huh! Today I'm a Wolfpack fan! I'm all in for the clipper!! AtlBacker torch map incoming 3,2,1.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 48 minutes ago, FallsLake said: It's nice to see a storm signal but for 95% of this board this depiction would need to improve (more south / SE). But this is way off in fantasy land... Plus this solution has 0 support from any of the EPS ensemble members and most of the GEFS members. I bet it disappears next run. This is a mountain upslope pattern coming up for maybe about a week, rest of us go hungry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Plus this solution has 0 support from any of the EPS ensemble members and most of the GEFS members. I bet it disappears next run. This is a mountain upslope pattern coming up for maybe about a week, rest of us go hungry. Yeah, I wouldn't look at anything on the GFS past 240. Just because they run it out to 384 doesn't mean it's worth looking at that far out. There's a reason the Euro and the CMC are only run out to 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 13 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Plus this solution has 0 support from any of the EPS ensemble members and most of the GEFS members. I bet it disappears next run. This is a mountain upslope pattern coming up for maybe about a week, rest of us go hungry. Yep, pattern change is clipperfest central for a while. Great time to go to ski beech or sugar mountain probably. At least we kill the torch and get into a cooler pattern. Down the line, GEFS swears up and down that a -NAO/AO pattern is coming in early February. That would be nice. I think it would be a great February if we could get something along these lines. Seems to be getting closer too, and not moving further out in time. Trying not to get hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Lol at 6z GFS! Clippergeddon on the 30th and on on the 6th, 996mb bomb over CAE! Nice rainer and mtns get plastered! It'll teen SE, no worries ! Yup, being on the western side of the eastern continental divide I can definitely tell you spirits are brighter in the Tennessee valley. It would perhaps be a good time if it pans out to go take a skiing trip. Wish you guys luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 9 hours ago, cbmclean said: For one who is still learning, what mechanism caused above-normal temps with a mean trough? A Gulf of Alaska low or trof can do it. Often times you won't have an eastern US trof with a GOA low, but with a strong -NAO you sometimes can because the strong eastern Canada block forces lower heights to its southwest in the Eastern US which we had in late December 2001 and virtually no cold air was around because Canada was warm due to the strong GOA low flooding Canada with warm air. Also you can have a trof in the east but the PV is on the opposite side of the pole so no real cold source in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 EPS has really been struggling, playing catch up to GEFS with stronger AK block/ridge. Though, GEFS might be over done. Below is EPS/GEFS with days 10's on the left v/s day 12's on the right. As SnowNiner pointed about above, GEFS is all in for a blocky period in the day 8+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Another terrible winter for the euro and eps. I'm so glad I don't waste my money on that anymore. Gfs is king! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: He said " runs" huh, huh! Today I'm a Wolfpack fan! I'm all in for the clipper!! AtlBacker torch map incoming 3,2,1.. This is the 5 day stretch that preceded a very wintery period...close to what the GEFS is spitting out. See I can hype fictional snow pattern as much as warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 In my amateur observation, I've leaned more toward the EURO op for storm specific threats and GEFS on pattern changes/recognition. Just my memory on how GEFS has been pretty decent on long range patterns. Here I go hyping myself up again. But if we get what pack showed above, I think a Feb 2014 is reasonable. Again, if, if, if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 13 minutes ago, packbacker said: This is the 5 day stretch that preceded a very wintery period...close to what the GEFS is spitting out. See I can hype fictional snow pattern as much as warmth. Nice job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 7 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: In my amateur observation, I've leaned more toward the EURO op for storm specific threats and GEFS on pattern changes/recognition. Just my memory on how GEFS has been pretty decent on long range patterns. Here I go hyping myself up again. But if we get what pack showed above, I think a Feb 2014 is reasonable. Again, if, if, if. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 This day 5-6 clipper deal is a lot more interesting when the H5 low tracks south of you...sharper too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 12z GFS snowfall for the clipper (again I can't post an image for some reason): http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017012412&fh=162&xpos=0&ypos=155 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Snow breaking out by 138 over N GA on the GFS. Trending in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 9 minutes ago, packbacker said: This day 5-6 clipper deal is a lot more interesting when the H5 low tracks south of you...sharper too. If only that fool over the Baja was about 500 miles east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: If only that fool over the Baja was about 500 miles east! And/or the 2nd piece of NS energy that crashes into Seattle was a day later so our ridge doesn't get stunted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 The 6z Navgem looked ominous day 7... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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