packbacker Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Maybe a quick ending to this winter....CFS showing a torch now and EPS/GEPS in agreement day 10+ warmup. EPS showing what we have seen all winter, short BN period of 4-6 days before we revert back to cold NW and warm everywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, packbacker said: Maybe a quick ending to this winter....CFS showing a torch now and EPS/GEPS in agreement day 10+ warmup. EPS showing what we have seen all winter, short BN period of 4-6 days before we revert back to cold NW and warm everywhere else. Who cares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Who cares? I sure as heck don't. I am a little disappointed though...I thought we would be warmer then this. Still hoping NC can get into that +6 to +9 range, places in the deep south are kicking our butts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: I sure as heck don't. I am a little disappointed though...I thought we would be warmer then this. Still hoping NC can get into that +6 to +9 range, places in the deep south are kicking our butts. that shouldn't be hard to do, seems like us snow lovers keep fighting the warm temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: I still wouldn't sleep on the system getting buried in the Gulf in 6-7 days. The models love showing that and usually the end result is either the system never makes it out of Mexico or Texas or it ends up way further north. To bad that system comes crashing into the NW as it stunts the pac ridge and kicks everything east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Hmm...should definitely perk the interest of the MA at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 The wider view isn't bad for much of the east at 500. A more robust northern stream piece with ridging building nicely behind it and something in the southern stream. This isn't too far off from being good (even if it doesn't produce at the surface). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Forgot to attach a picture. Here is 168 and also 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Nice system close to the end of the 12z gfs just not a great track for any of use but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Mrwolf1972 said: Nice system close to the end of the 12z gfs just not a great track for any of use but something to watch. The evolving look at 500 keeps winter possibilities around. The question is, does it have close to the right idea? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 12z GEFS has now started to pick up on the super clipper idea for 1/30-1/31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, packfan98 said: 12z GEFS has now started to pick up on the super clipper idea for 1/30-1/31. only a inch and a half for Asheville, I'll take it, better than sunny and 65, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 GEFS also picking up on some snow on 2/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 The gefs is persistent on bringin the cold back after a brief warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 39 minutes ago, packfan98 said: GEFS also picking up on some snow on 2/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I had pretty much thrown in the towel with the modeling trending east and less amplified with the E U.S. trough. Now they have come back west a bit with a couple of possibilities for something to work, though low chance...1) there is enough ridge/trough amplification far enough west to allow a low to come out of the gulf (which snowgoose mentioned to watch)...or 2) a northern stream clipper system. Temps aren't especially cold for either scenario 8 of the 20 GFS Ens members from 12z have a low coming out of the gulf. Also, the 12z Canadian Ens mean has decent precip along the SE coast....and the UKMet is diving well south into AR/LA at 144 (though maybe not sharp enough). Canadian Ens Mean is later in timeframe than the UKMet... UKMet at 144... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 GEFS still hell bent on putting on a fairly nice wintery Feb/nina pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 12Z Op Euro dry dry dry. Very boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 hour ago, mrdaddyman said: I'll cash in on e4, e7, e11, e16, and eM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 That's a classic throwback post from Cheez right there! Dr. No dagger post! Euro does get precip up to Jacksonville this run with a sfc low running thru S FL into the N Bahamas, lol. FYI, the GFS Ens member with the big storm (e16) drops the northern stream wave due south, deep into Texas as opposed to AR/LA. Some others aren't that far west, but do sharpen the wave over the SE and have the gulf low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 From RAH (grasping at anything I can find): Behind this lead front, temperatures will cool to more seasonable/ average levels for the end of the week and weekend. The positivetilt configuration of the trough aloft will cause surface high pressure to sprawl into the SErn U.S. and suppress any additional precipitation chances until Sun-Mon, at which time a Nrn streamshortwave trough in NW flow aloft will amplify into the Middle Atlantic region and possibly support some degree of cyclogenesis over the Wrn Atlantic. At this time, it appears that a generally dry reinforcing cold frontal passage will result for our region, though the prospects of nearby coastal cyclogenesis will be worth watching in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 43 minutes ago, FallsLake said: From RAH (grasping at anything I can find): Behind this lead front, temperatures will cool to more seasonable/ average levels for the end of the week and weekend. The positivetilt configuration of the trough aloft will cause surface high pressure to sprawl into the SErn U.S. and suppress any additional precipitation chances until Sun-Mon, at which time a Nrn streamshortwave trough in NW flow aloft will amplify into the Middle Atlantic region and possibly support some degree of cyclogenesis over the Wrn Atlantic. At this time, it appears that a generally dry reinforcing cold frontal passage will result for our region, though the prospects of nearby coastal cyclogenesis will be worth watching in the coming days. I like systems that are progged to miss/develop too far east several days out....especially in Nina years (or Nina pretenders like this year). Woot Woot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 44 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I like systems that are progged to miss/develop too far east several days out....especially in Nina years (or Nina pretenders like this year). Woot Woot! Optimism! I like it! I'll start the thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 43 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I like systems that are progged to miss/develop too far east several days out....especially in Nina years (or Nina pretenders like this year). Woot Woot! Yes, If we're ever to get snow "surprises" they generally tend to come from progs similar to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 If that gulf low (per 06z Para) tracks a little further west on the 30th we could be looking at a solid CAD event. Assuming the HP isn't halfway to Portugal at that point in time. It's a reach but it's something to watch! It seems like back in the early to mid 2000's we had a lot of storms creep up out of the gulf in mid winter that were initially supposed to stay suppressed and to our east. I can remember Dale Gilbert coming on TV 24 hours before a storm and surprising everyone with a solid CAD event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 18z @ 222 looks OK, rain verbatim for NC, but 850s look good. Surface temps mid to upper 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, JoshM said: 18z @ 222 looks OK, rain verbatim for NC, but 850s look good. Surface temps mid to upper 30s 12z Para run was better than 18z with a decent clipper...sfc low develops near Wilmington and runs up the NC coast. Neither one got a low coming out of the gulf though like some of the 12z members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: 12z Para run was better than 18z with a decent clipper...sfc low develops near Wilmington and runs up the NC coast. Neither one got a low coming out of the gulf though like some of the 12z members. Without a HP up north, I'm nervous about any events, regardless of 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Epic dry slot sliding up the East coast right now. A thing of beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 10 minutes ago, JoshM said: Without a HP up north, I'm nervous about any events, regardless of 850s. Clipper dreams and Miller A wishes ! What could go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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