FallsLake Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 59 minutes ago, packbacker said: Just a little difference in the 10-15 between the GEFS and EPS. Looking at the euro from last night, it would look like a good setup at day 10 onwards. **can't upload the image for some reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 CFS finds the cold, problem is it's all cooped up in Canada. Still, impressive cold on the CFS - let's see if it can slide into the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Not sure I can recall such big differences at day 10-11 between GEFS/EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 11 minutes ago, packbacker said: Not sure I can recall such big differences at day 10-11 between GEFS/EPS. Yeah that's impressive. GEFS actually holds the -EPO/+PNA. EPS says no and flattens the ridging. If the 6-10 day pattern can hold past day 10 we'll have to see fireworks at some point. Rooting for the GEFS, both models have pretty poor skill even at Day 10 so we will see what they agree on. Canadian more in line with EPS so that's the model I favor at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 0z Para looks good for the 3/4 February storm! Live action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 0z Para looks good for the 3/4 February storm! Live action Looks good on Jan 30 as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 If the 12Z GFS would just have a little more negative tilt as the trough rolls through about day 8 we would have something to track. Euro last night had similar look at same time frame and brought some precipitation to the Georgia Florida coast. Something to watch I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Meh, 12z GFS = dumpster fire! Warm Fropa on the 5th! Winter cancel and the models not as cold , except gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 The pattern is fairly ripe IMO. 12 GFS Ens Mean and the 12z CMC both show precip streaking out of the NE gulf and off the SE coast on the 29-30th. The northern stream dominant look we are getting right now isn't a bad place to be in at this time range. Need the large scale trough to not trend east on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 The GFS para continues to show good snow chances on the 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 GFS Ens Mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: The GFS para continues to show good snow chances on the 06z Yep good run of the para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS Ens Mean I did my calculations and after I account for the 225 mile NW jog I'm in the jackpot zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 It will be interesting to see what Larry Cosgrove says today. He has been quite good and was bullish about the prospects of winters return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Call me skeptical, but getting interested in a fantasy "possibility " is just lame ! It's just a fantasy " could be" and not even a fantasy storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Odds are RDU will finish the winter below 2" of snow, currently sitting at 0.5". That will make it 4 out of 6 years and 8 out of past 13 below 2". I thought the 90's were bad...kind of pathetic how much time wasted tracking a chance of snow during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 11 minutes ago, packbacker said: Odds are RDU will finish the winter below 2" of snow, currently sitting at 0.5". That will make it 4 out of 6 years and 8 out of past 13 below 2". I thought the 90's were bad...kind of pathetic how much time wasted tracking a chance of snow during that time. Lol! They can get two inches from the clipper fest that's coming! I think they beat the odds! Lol sadly GSP is at 4"+ for the winter, so slightly ahead of RDU at this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 How's the euro looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 11 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: How's the euro looking? Supressed, pretty much like GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Nothing noteworthy on the 18z gfs I take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 9 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Nothing noteworthy on the 18z gfs I take it. It was brutal. No other way to describe it. Nearly any hope of a return to cold has vanished. No real storm threats. Op run but jeez it looks bleak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 14 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Nothing noteworthy on the 18z gfs I take it. If you live in Ohio it was good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 GFS para still showing snow chances. But GFS isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, Mrwolf1972 said: GFS para still showing snow chances. But GFS isn't. GFS not even showing cold now. Not reallly anyway. Becoming resigned to the fact that we are in trouble. All of us. At least some of the SE saw snow. Glad for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: GFS not even showing cold now. Not reallly anyway. Becoming resigned to the fact that we are in trouble. All of us. At least some of the SE saw snow. Glad for that. GFS para holds cold from 27th till 4th of feb gefs is cold to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 13 minutes ago, BristowWx said: GFS not even showing cold now. Not reallly anyway. Becoming resigned to the fact that we are in trouble. All of us. At least some of the SE saw snow. Glad for that. True! Winter cancel and gefs sucks! All hail eps!! There you go pack, torch away, strat warming outta give us a cold mid March anyway! Fab February is amazeballs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 22 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: True! Winter cancel and gefs sucks! All hail eps!! There you go pack, torch away, strat warming outta give us a cold mid March anyway! Fab February is amazeballs Mack 2.0 needs some debugging! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Accu-weather, Long range forecast. As of today!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 GEFS ain't messing around with AK block. -EPO problems. EPS wants nothing to do with it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: GEFS ain't messing around with AK block. -EPO problems. EPS wants nothing to do with it though. Take the warm model like you normally do, it's money! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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